NLDS Game 1: Rockies at Crew - 4:07 - FS1

[Kerb Hohl]

Why do we have a quick hook on every pitcher on the roster except the closer? I don't understand why just because a guy is the closer and the last to pitch he can't be pulled. Some days guys just don't have it and it's completely obvious. Get them out of there on those days before they piss the leads away.

Did Jeffress, "not have it" when he induced a trickling grounder that Arcia fumbled and then got 2 outs and had an electric strikeout of Trevor Story?

I get the "too long of a leash" stuff with Knebel back in the middle of the season but I'd argue that some of that was due to bullpen usage and the fact that the infamous final Knebel game was due to not having enough time to warm somebody up, leaving him in a batter too long maybe.

Just because fans think that a pitcher "doesn't have it" doesn't mean that the manager can't let arguably his best reliever get outs when you only have maybe 1 lock-down option remaining behind him. Sometimes you're stuck on an island and have to pray that a really good reliever will regress to the mean of being a really good reliever.

To me, it wasn't as if Jeffress was missing the plate by 5 feet. He got a roped single, a grounder up-the-middle, and then the Blackmon AB. It wasn't necessarily some pitcher that looked like he was crapping his pants and unable to find the strike zone. Hitters are going to put the ball in play from time to time against even the best relievers.

[Bernman]

Counsell has made plenty of mistakes throughout this season. I think he gets too much credit in the local media for partially leaning into a strategy that was probably a directive from top down and there was very little other choice to make with the disproportionate success of the bullpen relative to starters. He's not of the ilk of the particularly good managers in the game. That critique is fair, and to try and tie the current complaints to throw out all valid ones is manipulative.

That said, he managed games well overall the last week of the season, and had another good game last night. He leaned harder into the bullpen strategy and it worked, again, just as it worked when Hader shockingly blew the game against the Cardinals, only for the team to come back and win yet again. Jeffress has been a monster. He hadn't allowed a run in 12 outings. The last time he allowed 2 runs was 38 appearances ago. So he was the easy call over Hader for the 9th and even when he was in trouble it was certainly understandable to leave him in. As we saw he can make even the best hitters look terrible with hooks well out of the zone and he can induce double plays with it. Didn't get why he nor Pina weren't calling those earlier. He did ultimately limit the damage.

[Kerb Hohl]

Counsell has made plenty of mistakes throughout this season. I think he gets too much credit in the local media for partially leaning into a strategy that was probably a directive from top down and there was very little other choice to make with the disproportionate success of the bullpen relative to starters. He's not of the ilk of the particularly good managers in the game. That critique is fair, and to try and tie the current complaints to throw out all is manipulative.

That said, he managed games well overall the last week of the season, and had another good game last night. He leaned harder into the bullpen strategy and it worked, again, just as it worked when Hader shockingly blew the game against the Cardinals, only for the team to come back and win yet again. Jeffress has been a monster. He hadn't allowed a run in 12 outings. The last time he allowed 2 runs was 38 ago. So he was the easy call over Hader for the 9th and even when he was in trouble it was certainly defensible to leave him in. As we saw he can make even the best hitters look terrible with hooks well out of the zone and he can induce double plays with it. Didn't get why he nor Pina weren't calling those earlier.

Every manager in baseball has made "mistakes" during the season. I'd imagine Counsell has played the statistically correct play for a very high majority of decisions. Sometimes you bring in a lefty that gets lefty outs to get a lefty out and it fails...and then the same **** brigade comes out and says they knew that Dan Jennings sucked...but the process is 100% correct so it's a great decision.

He should get credit for "leaning into" a decision from the GM. That's a good manager if he understands this. If we hired a gruff old manager like Buck Showalter that would've saved half of our good relievers for extra innings last night then we wouldn't have 96 wins and we'd be watching the Cubs play these games.

If you have a deemed statistical system that will win over a season and you play it out over 162 games, you'll generally see the fruits of your labor. And look - we won 96 games with a roster and run differential that shouldn't have. The process is all that matters to me and not getting mad because the result didn't work one time. But that probably comes from the fact that I've literally worked on some of these statistical models with baseball in grad school and some work.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'd absolutely love to hear some of you guys that think other wizard managers are out there come up with some sort of analysis or article telling me that Tony LaRussa or Joe Maddon or name your manager could've coaxed 5-10 more wins out of a team than what Counsell would have.

You guys are making this **** up because you just have this idea that every bad result you've seen from a Counsell decision is clearly fixable because some image in your brain that there are infallible decision makers. That they'd have the foresight to know that when they're deep in their bullpen to say, "no, not this time. I'm not going to bring in my LOOGY to face a lefty. I have this premonition that Dan Jennings' slider is going to get mashed in this particular at bat so I'm going to leave the righty that cannot get lefties out in the game."

[Bernman]

Every manager in baseball has made "mistakes" during the season. I'd imagine Counsell has played the statistically correct play for a very high majority of decisions. Sometimes you bring in a lefty that gets lefty outs to get a lefty out and it fails...and then the same **** brigade comes out and says they knew that Dan Jennings sucked...but the process is 100% correct so it's a great decision.

He should get credit for "leaning into" a decision from the GM. That's a good manager if he understands this. If we hired a gruff old manager like Buck Showalter that would've saved half of our good relievers for extra innings then we wouldn't have 96 wins.

Relying on the likes of Boone Logan and Bronko Nagurski in multiple meaningful situations was indefensible. So was not pitching Hader unless you have a lead on the road or are tied at home, so he often didn't pitch in key series or hardly at all during weeks-plus. He wouldn't see that pitchers like Suter were falling apart 2nd or 3rd time thru the order because their smoke and mirrors style was figured out. He would occasionally call bunts by positional players in situations where they couldn't subsequently score runs with outs or when 1 run wouldn't mean all that much. He had a success-rate on challenges that was literally twice as bad as any manager in the majors until late in the season. You're being nihilistic about all making some mistakes. Those that are among the best have a better feel than that.

He's in the normal range of managers overall I think. Is plenty capable of managing a team to a poor record, and that doesn't mean it would be his "fault" either.

[Kerb Hohl]

Every manager in baseball has made "mistakes" during the season. I'd imagine Counsell has played the statistically correct play for a very high majority of decisions. Sometimes you bring in a lefty that gets lefty outs to get a lefty out and it fails...and then the same **** brigade comes out and says they knew that Dan Jennings sucked...but the process is 100% correct so it's a great decision.

He should get credit for "leaning into" a decision from the GM. That's a good manager if he understands this. If we hired a gruff old manager like Buck Showalter that would've saved half of our good relievers for extra innings then we wouldn't have 96 wins.

Relying on the likes of Boone Logan and Bronko Nagurski in multiple meaningful situations was indefensible. So was not pitching Hader unless you have a lead on the road or are tied at home, so he often didn't pitch in key series or hardly at all during weeks-plus. He wouldn't see that pitchers like Suter were falling apart 2nd or 3rd time thru the order because their smoke and mirrors style was figured out. He would occasionally call bunts by positional players in situations where they couldn't subsequently score runs with outs or when 1 run wouldn't mean all that much. He had a success-rate on challenges that was literally twice as bad as any manager in the majors until late in the season. You're being nihilistic about all making some mistakes. Those that are among the best have a better feel than that.

He's in the normal range of managers overall I think. Is plenty capable of managing a team to a poor record, and that doesn't mean it would be his "fault" either.

Hello there, welcome to Major League baseball where not every pitcher is Josh Hader and the season is 162 games so you are forced to rely on bottom roster players like Boone Logan in certain situations to manage the full season.

Stearns called up Zagurski because they thought he could get lefties out...they found out he couldn't in one high leverage situation, used him (because he had to stay on the roster) in blowouts a few more times, and he was gone.

Please, give me any manager's name that you think is the best in baseball and I will find 5 relievers in every season that got DFA'ed or had a terrible season and were used a handful of times in high leverage. I'm ready for this.

The idea of not pitching Hader unless they had the lead had to have come down from Stearns who you've admitted is pretty good, I believe. And Hader was #2 in all of baseball in relief innings pitched...so, when did you want his arm to fall off?

[Bernman]

Hello there, welcome to Major League baseball where not every pitcher is Josh Hader and the season is 162 games so you are forced to rely on bottom roster players like Boone Logan in certain situations to manage the full season.

Stearns called up Zagurski because they thought he could get lefties out...they found out he couldn't in one high leverage situation, used him (because he had to stay on the roster) in blowouts a few more times, and he was gone.

Please, give me any manager's name that you think is the best in baseball and I will find 5 relievers in every season that got DFA'ed or had a terrible season and were used a handful of times in high leverage. I'm ready for this.

The idea of not pitching Hader unless they had the lead had to have come down from Stearns who you've admitted is pretty good, I believe. And Hader was #2 in all of baseball in relief innings pitched...so, when did you want his arm to fall off?

The Brewers had a uniquely good bullpen relative to starter talent, uniquely good bullpen relative to the majors, and a uniquely good bullpen arm who could be used in a unique style. So no, it wasn't requisite to often times rely on pitchers who were struggling mightily, and to mollycoddle guys. As if Hader's arm would have fallen off because he pitched a couple innings in a week or a # of key 3-4 game series' instead of virtually none. Spacing out appearances is what matters in the pen. Innings logged is more an issue for starters, who logged a lot more than he did.

You know full well I don't have a list of every manager's every move, which is why you made that challenge.The video review success-rate? That's easy to address, but you didn't. It's an objective way in which he erred. He had his discernible flaws.

[Kerb Hohl]

Hello there, welcome to Major League baseball where not every pitcher is Josh Hader and the season is 162 games so you are forced to rely on bottom roster players like Boone Logan in certain situations to manage the full season.

Stearns called up Zagurski because they thought he could get lefties out...they found out he couldn't in one high leverage situation, used him (because he had to stay on the roster) in blowouts a few more times, and he was gone.

Please, give me any manager's name that you think is the best in baseball and I will find 5 relievers in every season that got DFA'ed or had a terrible season and were used a handful of times in high leverage. I'm ready for this.

The idea of not pitching Hader unless they had the lead had to have come down from Stearns who you've admitted is pretty good, I believe. And Hader was #2 in all of baseball in relief innings pitched...so, when did you want his arm to fall off?

The Brewers had a uniquely good bullpen relative to starter talent, uniquely good bullpen relative to the majors, and a uniquely good bullpen arm who could be used in a unique style. So no, it wasn't requisite to often times rely on pitchers who were struggling mightily, and to mollycoddle guys. As if Hader's arm would have fallen off because he pitched a couple innings in a week or a # of key 3-4 game series' instead of virtually none. The video review success-rate? That's easy to address, but you didn't. You know full well I don't have a list of every manager's every moves, which is why you made that challenge.

The Brewers needed to cover more innings with their bullpen due to not having as good of a starting staff.

So you still have to rely on lower tier guys when Hader has pitched too much or if you get into 3 or 4 close games in a row where your starter doesn't go deep into the game.

You've picked out a handful of series where you thought Hader should've pitched. It was pointed out in some of those series that the fact that he didn't pitch in a tie the game before helped them use him the next day in a tight victory. The point, though, is that Stearns had a great plan and Counsell enacted it. Process was good. There will be some bumps in the road for any manager over 162 games with injuries and situations where usage needs to be managed.

I don't have a list of every manager's moves but I want you to pick your "best manager in the league" and I'll find all sorts of blunders and fans wanting to run him out of town. Any manager in baseball. So Counsell is not mistake free but to try to nitpick and think you've realized he's not a good manager when he's following the correct process is a fool's errand. He looks worse to you because you watch his decisions every day and see the times when the results don't pan out.

[livestrong4ever]

Hello there, welcome to Major League baseball where not every pitcher is Josh Hader and the season is 162 games so you are forced to rely on bottom roster players like Boone Logan in certain situations to manage the full season.

Stearns called up Zagurski because they thought he could get lefties out...they found out he couldn't in one high leverage situation, used him (because he had to stay on the roster) in blowouts a few more times, and he was gone.

Please, give me any manager's name that you think is the best in baseball and I will find 5 relievers in every season that got DFA'ed or had a terrible season and were used a handful of times in high leverage. I'm ready for this.

The idea of not pitching Hader unless they had the lead had to have come down from Stearns who you've admitted is pretty good, I believe. And Hader was #2 in all of baseball in relief innings pitched...so, when did you want his arm to fall off?

The Brewers had a uniquely good bullpen relative to starter talent, uniquely good bullpen relative to the majors, and a uniquely good bullpen arm who could be used in a unique style. So no, it wasn't requisite to often times rely on pitchers who were struggling mightily, and to mollycoddle guys. As if Hader's arm would have fallen off because he pitched a couple innings in a week or a # of key 3-4 game series' instead of virtually none. Spacing out appearances is what matters in the pen. Innings logged is more an issue for starters, who logged a lot more than he did.

You know full well I don't have a list of every manager's every move, which is why you made that challenge.The video review success-rate? That's easy to address, but you didn't. It's an objective way in which he erred. He had his discernible flaws.

CC is regraded as one of the best managers in the game in the analytic community. Not only for how he manages in game decisions like the BP but how he uses the defensive shift, etc.etc.etc.
Hader was one of the most used RP's in the game, people expected him to have 200 IP out of the pen is just insane.

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[Turk Nowitzki]

Hader literally pitched the most innings of any RP in the National League and somehow that's not enough for the critics.

[Kerb Hohl]

I don't know (and don't really care) where to exactly pin Counsell. He's good and good enough to enact a good plan by Stearns. Seems like a good player's coach. So maybe he's a top 10 manager and I'll leave it there.

This is akin to having some sort of argument about Drew Brees.

Most of the room: I think Drew Brees is really good. Not GOAT, but top 5 QB every year.
Other guys: Yeah, but did you see those interceptions he threw last week? Mistakes. I saw those.
Most of the room: Yes, he's very good and throws a handful of bad INTs like every other mortal QB.

*Wins Super Bowl*

Most of the room: A good QB won the Super Bowl.
Other guys: Yeah, but he threw some interceptions in week 5 and 7 and I saw that. I guess he finally had a good stretch but he threw interceptions on balls that if you watched the tape clearly shouldn't have been thrown.

[JimmyTheKid]

I'll never understand the Hader usage criticism or how long it took reporters to stop asking Counsell about it. In one word, ridiculous.

My lone semi-major complaint this season was the handling of Orlando Arcia after his 2017 campaign. I thought he earned the every day SS job, and the right to hit himself out of a slump, based on his previous season's performance at the plate. Thought Craig tried to get a little cute there. Instead of worrying about keeping Sogard and Hernan fresh, I felt he should have worried about getting Arcia going with consistent AB's. In the grand scheme of things, however, that turned out to be a non-issue. Counsell's entire body of work has Skipper of the Year written all over it.

[bizarro]

You never pull your closer in that situation.

Just because managers never pull their closers doesn't mean that they should be kept in.

Thanks Twirlz. There is zero room for sentimentality in the playoffs. It’s a new season. Jeffress didn’t have his stuff yesterday. Not having anyone warm or preparing was stupid. Jeffress is a closer by default and he’s been great, yes, but the philosophy is supposed to be ‘Out Getters’.

[Kerb Hohl]

You never pull your closer in that situation.

Just because managers never pull their closers doesn't mean that they should be kept in.

Thanks Twirlz. There is zero room for sentimentality in the playoffs. It’s a new season. Jeffress didn’t have his stuff yesterday. Not having anyone warm or preparing was stupid. Jeffress is a closer by default and he’s been great, yes, but the philosophy is supposed to be ‘Out Getters’.

Well, what if once Blackmon reached base, somebody said, "I still think Jeffress is the best pitcher remaining for this situation. He's not pitching THAT poorly and I trust him to turn it around because he's a really good pitcher, so leave him in the game"?

Was that person wrong?

That's the funny thing is that people are saying "he didn't have it" after a few decent contact hits that were in the strike zone. And then...he pitched just fine after that? Did you guys want to pull Jeffress after like 3 pitches to the first 2 hitters, 1 of which was a grounder that happened to not be hit at an infielder?

[bizarro]

I appreciate the discourse here right now and am open to being incorrect in my thinking and educating myself further. However, I am currently stuck in a negative view of CC’s bullpen management due to my experiences witnessing overreliance on Albers, Barnes, Williams, Jennings, and Knebel in their various periods of struggle this season. I admit I probably am quick on the trigger due to my pissiness therein. But, I can also say 100%: if you don’t think Jeffress was quite off yesterday, I think you are wearing rose colored glasses. We very easily should have lost that game. He was hanging pitches left and right those first four batters.

[Kerb Hohl]

The "final straw" Knebel game against San Diego, people either wanted to go to Hader (who was arguably in one of his "can't use" states) or warm up Soria 1-2 batters earlier after Knebel was beaten on some long at-bat walks and a single.

I think everyone forgets that Soria got one out and then...gave up 2 straight home runs. So the grass is not always greener.

[bizarro]

Just because managers never pull their closers doesn't mean that they should be kept in.

Thanks Twirlz. There is zero room for sentimentality in the playoffs. It’s a new season. Jeffress didn’t have his stuff yesterday. Not having anyone warm or preparing was stupid. Jeffress is a closer by default and he’s been great, yes, but the philosophy is supposed to be ‘Out Getters’.

Well, what if once Blackmon reached base, somebody said, "I still think Jeffress is the best pitcher remaining for this situation. He's not pitching THAT poorly and I trust him to turn it around because he's a really good pitcher, so leave him in the game"?

Was that person wrong?

That's the funny thing is that people are saying "he didn't have it" after a few decent contact hits that were in the strike zone. And then...he pitched just fine after that? Did you guys want to pull Jeffress after like 3 pitches to the first 2 hitters, 1 of which was a grounder that happened to not be hit at an infielder?

I wanted to pull Jeffress after that pitch to Blackmon, yes. It was another hanger slightly before/after he had also thrown a ball about 3 ft in the dirt to Pina’s left. It’s not personal. I’m really really glad it all worked out. I really really like the CC I am seeing this past week and a half or so. I am still critical pf that situation.

[Kerb Hohl]

I appreciate the discourse here right now and am open to being incorrect in my thinking and educating myself further. However, I am currently stuck in a negative view of CC’s bullpen management due to my experiences witnessing overreliance on Albers, Barnes, Williams, Jennings, and Knebel in their various periods of struggle this season. I admit I probably am quick on the trigger due to my pissiness therein. But, I can also say 100%: if you don’t think Jeffress was quite off yesterday, I think you are wearing rose colored glasses. We very easily should have lost that game. He was hanging pitches left and right those first four batters.

My job on this website is to note that it happens to every team. Everyone goes through periods where they're forced to rely on garbage relievers and it's a tightrope, even the teams with the best bullpens. Sticking with certain players that "quick on the trigger due to pissiness" (I understand it, I get triggered on here a lot) also pays off when those players return to form.

There are times where a pitcher may actually be fine but the other team has placed a few hits nicely. It's probably a good trait of a manager to stick with the guy because he's literally the best (or maybe 2nd best) pitcher in the bullpen...so trust it. And Jeffress did fine after that.

[Kerb Hohl]

Thanks Twirlz. There is zero room for sentimentality in the playoffs. It’s a new season. Jeffress didn’t have his stuff yesterday. Not having anyone warm or preparing was stupid. Jeffress is a closer by default and he’s been great, yes, but the philosophy is supposed to be ‘Out Getters’.

Well, what if once Blackmon reached base, somebody said, "I still think Jeffress is the best pitcher remaining for this situation. He's not pitching THAT poorly and I trust him to turn it around because he's a really good pitcher, so leave him in the game"?

Was that person wrong?

That's the funny thing is that people are saying "he didn't have it" after a few decent contact hits that were in the strike zone. And then...he pitched just fine after that? Did you guys want to pull Jeffress after like 3 pitches to the first 2 hitters, 1 of which was a grounder that happened to not be hit at an infielder?

I wanted to pull Jeffress after that pitch to Blackmon, yes. It was another hanger slightly before/after he had also thrown a ball about 3 ft in the dirt to Pina’s left. It’s not personal. I’m really really glad it all worked out. I really really like the CC I am seeing this past week and a half or so. I am still critical pf that situation.

Yeah, well here's the thing. The playoffs basically started 2 weeks ago for the Brewers and they had a 40 man roster to soften needing their 2nd tier bullpen guys to burn somewhat not necessary innings.

So Counsell, like any other manager, is forced to pitch guys like Drake, Barnes, etc. earlier in the year. Now he gets to basically just use his best guys every time.

If Counsell managed like this all year and Hader, Jeffress, Soria, etc. would all have thrown 150 innings. Also, if Counsell/Stearns handled Knebel the way everyone wanted he'd have been completely cut or never used again. But they trusted a good pitcher and now he's back into a high leverage role...because you have to trust it.

[bizarro]

Well, what if once Blackmon reached base, somebody said, "I still think Jeffress is the best pitcher remaining for this situation. He's not pitching THAT poorly and I trust him to turn it around because he's a really good pitcher, so leave him in the game"?

Was that person wrong?

That's the funny thing is that people are saying "he didn't have it" after a few decent contact hits that were in the strike zone. And then...he pitched just fine after that? Did you guys want to pull Jeffress after like 3 pitches to the first 2 hitters, 1 of which was a grounder that happened to not be hit at an infielder?

I wanted to pull Jeffress after that pitch to Blackmon, yes. It was another hanger slightly before/after he had also thrown a ball about 3 ft in the dirt to Pina’s left. It’s not personal. I’m really really glad it all worked out. I really really like the CC I am seeing this past week and a half or so. I am still critical pf that situation.

Yeah, well here's the thing. The playoffs basically started 2 weeks ago for the Brewers and they had a 40 man roster to soften needing their 2nd tier bullpen guys to burn somewhat not necessary innings.

So Counsell, like any other manager, is forced to pitch guys like Drake, Barnes, etc. earlier in the year. Now he gets to basically just use his best guys every time.

If Counsell managed like this all year and Hader, Jeffress, Soria, etc. would all have thrown 150 innings. Also, if Counsell/Stearns handled Knebel the way everyone wanted he'd have been completely cut or never used again. But they trusted a good pitcher and now he's back into a high leverage role...because you have to trust it.

I totally get it. It’s actually more or less the parable every major sports team faces: depth and talented depth. And, usually when that depth is talented it leaves for more money or replaces previous #1. Then they’re left with needing to find more talented depth. Hence, the Packers start McCray, backed up by Byron Bell, and their top OT back-up is Jason Spriggs.

I think several things come put of this conversation for me.

In self-analysis: I get f’ng worked up in the games. Call it post-Kidd/still in the MM era of football/frustrated by underperforming ‘talent’ but I could take a few more moments and not be so tempermemtal. I can admit to that for sure. Secondly, every team struggles with performance issues - even from their best.

AND, I would still propose: there is still no merit (to me) to not having people up in the bullpen in case your closer is struggling. They do struggle. And, it’s typically pretty obvious when that’s the case. There should be no hard rule to leaving them in (sometimes this is the case for 4-5 consecutive outings even) and just as baseball is evolving in other areas it can evolve here. Obviously the magic and dance here is unique to each manager and each person’s make-up.

Anyhow, I appreciate the numerous opinions here and thanks for your well thought-out responses.