2025 ATL Thread - Burnes to have TJ surgery

[Kerb Hohl]

Oh so you're saying the wildly high numbers you guys keep throwing out would never happen? That an extra $750k wouldn't break the system and lead to the downfall of the league and make all the owners poor and sad?

An extra $750k for Burnes can inch the scales up and is potentially a reason that Adames didn't mess with it.

I think this argument can end because
A. I don't give a **** what Corbin Burnes nets or if he's "happy" in an interview with Curt Hogg.
B. I don't think it affected the team success or his own success. You do. Burnes was dominant in the final months of the regular season and gave up a few extra homers in the postseason. It's hard to actually quantify this, therefore we'll never agree on this.

Now do Hader.

OK, happily. The supposed issue happened before 2020, which I think we can probably throw out because he threw 20 innings. His overall numbers were not as good because he gave up 4 runs once. Otherwise he gave up 0 runs in almost every appearance other than 1 run twice and 2 runs once.

In 2021, he had his best ERA and FIP of his career.

In 2022, he gave up 3 TOTAL runs from March through July. Then hit a rough patch (mechanics?), was traded, continued his rough patch with the Padres.

In 2023, he settled in the middle with the Padres BUT STILL ONLY PITCHED THE 9TH INNING and the team sucked/missed the playoffs, though he was excellent.

So where are the Brewers badly hurt or at fault by this?

[MVP2110]

An extra $750k for Burnes can inch the scales up and is potentially a reason that Adames didn't mess with it.

I think this argument can end because
A. I don't give a **** what Corbin Burnes nets or if he's "happy" in an interview with Curt Hogg.
B. I don't think it affected the team success or his own success. You do. Burnes was dominant in the final months of the regular season and gave up a few extra homers in the postseason. It's hard to actually quantify this, therefore we'll never agree on this.

Now do Hader.

OK, happily. The supposed issue happened before 2020, which I think we can probably throw out because he threw 20 innings. His overall numbers were not as good because he gave up 4 runs once. Otherwise he gave up 0 runs in almost every appearance other than 1 run twice and 2 runs once.

In 2021, he had his best ERA and FIP of his career.

In 2022, he gave up 3 TOTAL runs from March through July. Then hit a rough patch (mechanics?), was traded, continued his rough patch with the Padres.

In 2023, he settled in the middle with the Padres BUT STILL ONLY PITCHED THE 9TH INNING and the team sucked/missed the playoffs, though he was excellent.

So where are the Brewers badly hurt or at fault by this?

Yea, the Padres actually did the thing RS is asking for. They settled with Hader for a record breaking amount for a reliever and he still refused to throw more than 1 inning at a time.

[Kerb Hohl]

I actually think if/when Hader said this to the Brewers, they said "OK fine."

Because they were set up just fine for this. They had an ascending Devin Williams.

Generally if you want to play modern/smart bullpen management, yeah, if you are up 4-3 in the 8th and there's a guy on first and you're about to face Betts/Freeman/Ohtani, you want to go to the best reliever in baseball and maybe he even continues into the 9th.

In this case, the Brewers had a top 5 reliever in baseball in Devin Williams basically that entire time anyways as well. So just use him in the 7th or 8th.

Hader actually threw harder and had better numbers when he was only the traditional closer (with maybe slightly less usage/leverage).

Due to the Brewers situation, it was actually fine, even though he proved he would've done this to any team.

[ReasonablySober]

Now do Hader.

OK, happily. The supposed issue happened before 2020, which I think we can probably throw out because he threw 20 innings. His overall numbers were not as good because he gave up 4 runs once. Otherwise he gave up 0 runs in almost every appearance other than 1 run twice and 2 runs once.

In 2021, he had his best ERA and FIP of his career.

In 2022, he gave up 3 TOTAL runs from March through July. Then hit a rough patch (mechanics?), was traded, continued his rough patch with the Padres.

In 2023, he settled in the middle with the Padres BUT STILL ONLY PITCHED THE 9TH INNING and the team sucked/missed the playoffs, though he was excellent.

So where are the Brewers badly hurt or at fault by this?

Yea, the Padres actually did the thing RS is asking for. They settled with Hader for a record breaking amount for a reliever and he still refused to throw more than 1 inning at a time.

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

[MVP2110]

OK, happily. The supposed issue happened before 2020, which I think we can probably throw out because he threw 20 innings. His overall numbers were not as good because he gave up 4 runs once. Otherwise he gave up 0 runs in almost every appearance other than 1 run twice and 2 runs once.

In 2021, he had his best ERA and FIP of his career.

In 2022, he gave up 3 TOTAL runs from March through July. Then hit a rough patch (mechanics?), was traded, continued his rough patch with the Padres.

In 2023, he settled in the middle with the Padres BUT STILL ONLY PITCHED THE 9TH INNING and the team sucked/missed the playoffs, though he was excellent.

So where are the Brewers badly hurt or at fault by this?

Yea, the Padres actually did the thing RS is asking for. They settled with Hader for a record breaking amount for a reliever and he still refused to throw more than 1 inning at a time.

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

So why didn't he update the rules when the Padres gave him a record setting deal?

[ReasonablySober]

Yea, the Padres actually did the thing RS is asking for. They settled with Hader for a record breaking amount for a reliever and he still refused to throw more than 1 inning at a time.

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

So why didn't he update the rules when the Padres gave him a record setting deal?

Because he was a year away from free agency and the Padres gave him a one year deal?

[Kerb Hohl]

OK, happily. The supposed issue happened before 2020, which I think we can probably throw out because he threw 20 innings. His overall numbers were not as good because he gave up 4 runs once. Otherwise he gave up 0 runs in almost every appearance other than 1 run twice and 2 runs once.

In 2021, he had his best ERA and FIP of his career.

In 2022, he gave up 3 TOTAL runs from March through July. Then hit a rough patch (mechanics?), was traded, continued his rough patch with the Padres.

In 2023, he settled in the middle with the Padres BUT STILL ONLY PITCHED THE 9TH INNING and the team sucked/missed the playoffs, though he was excellent.

So where are the Brewers badly hurt or at fault by this?

Yea, the Padres actually did the thing RS is asking for. They settled with Hader for a record breaking amount for a reliever and he still refused to throw more than 1 inning at a time.

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

He eventually said it was about the entire system from the league, which is why he continued to only pitch the 9th with the Padres.

With the benefit of hindsight, outside of a debatable 2022 sliding doors situation(did they trade him a few months early because of this? Did Hader who struggled for 2 months with both teams cause them to miss the playoffs with a team that probably wasn't going anywhere anyways? Aren't we happier with the eventual trades?) - there was zero tangible effect on the Brewers if Hader was "mad."

[MVP2110]

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

So why didn't he update the rules when the Padres gave him a record setting deal?

Because he was a year away from free agency and the Padres gave him a one year deal?

So he moved the goalposts? If his original complaint was that pitching like that wasn't valued by the team, but then the Padres clearly valued him by giving him a record breaking arb amount then he changed his complaint. Tbf all of which is in Hader's right but then it clearly wasn't just an arbitration issue

[Kerb Hohl]

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

So why didn't he update the rules when the Padres gave him a record setting deal?

Because he was a year away from free agency and the Padres gave him a one year deal?

So now we've established even if he is happy with his pay, which is obviously the most important thing in sports both for players and as fans watching, that he still only pitched the 9th? In which I've tried to establish the alternative was fine for the Brewers?

Literally, why the **** should I care about this? You are making up a narrative.

[ReasonablySober]

Yea, the Padres actually did the thing RS is asking for. They settled with Hader for a record breaking amount for a reliever and he still refused to throw more than 1 inning at a time.

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

He eventually said it was about the entire system from the league, which is why he continued to only pitch the 9th with the Padres.

With the benefit of hindsight, outside of a debatable 2022 sliding doors situation(did they trade him a few months early because of this? Did Hader who struggled for 2 months with both teams cause them to miss the playoffs with a team that probably wasn't going anywhere anyways? Aren't we happier with the eventual trades?) - there was zero tangible effect on the Brewers if Hader was "mad."

You mean besides the tangible effect that pre-arb Hader was a guy who would pitch multiple innings at any time, and during arbitration he wasn't?

[ReasonablySober]

So why didn't he update the rules when the Padres gave him a record setting deal?

Because he was a year away from free agency and the Padres gave him a one year deal?

So now we've established even if he is happy with his pay, which is obviously the most important thing in sports both for players and as fans watching, that he still only pitched the 9th? In which I've tried to establish the alternative was fine for the Brewers?

Literally, why the **** should I care about this? You are making up a narrative.

ESPN wrote an entire article about this but I'm the one making up the argument.

[Kerb Hohl]

Did you guys actually read the article? His one inning demand only came about after the Brewers low-balled him in arbitration. It was literally the point of the entire piece. If the Brewers offer to Hader reflected his performance (they cited Papelbon's first year arbitration salary), Hader's agent doesn't come up with the rules that Hader would go on to pitch under for the next three seasons.

He eventually said it was about the entire system from the league, which is why he continued to only pitch the 9th with the Padres.

With the benefit of hindsight, outside of a debatable 2022 sliding doors situation(did they trade him a few months early because of this? Did Hader who struggled for 2 months with both teams cause them to miss the playoffs with a team that probably wasn't going anywhere anyways? Aren't we happier with the eventual trades?) - there was zero tangible effect on the Brewers if Hader was "mad."

You mean besides the tangible effect that pre-arb Hader was a guy who would pitch multiple innings at any time, and during arbitration he wasn't?

I've already established that:
1. Hader pitched "better" as a 9th inning only guy outside of that rough stretch with the Brewers/Padres in 2022.
2. The Brewers were probably fine with it given Devin Williams pitched other innings.
3. It didn't actually matter!

They sucked in 2020 and had that weird expanded playoffs blowout loss to the Dodgers. In 2021, they got the 2 seed and finished 12 games behind the Giants/Dodgers (I think you'd agree Hader being more flexible in innings wouldn't have gotten them the 1 seed). He then got a save in game 1, the team got blanked in games 2-3, and in game 4 he came in in the 8th inning and gave up a series-winning HR to Freddie Freeman.

We have the benefit of hindsight and literally none of this moved the needle unless you want to make it so.

[Kerb Hohl]

Because he was a year away from free agency and the Padres gave him a one year deal?

So now we've established even if he is happy with his pay, which is obviously the most important thing in sports both for players and as fans watching, that he still only pitched the 9th? In which I've tried to establish the alternative was fine for the Brewers?

Literally, why the **** should I care about this? You are making up a narrative.

ESPN wrote an entire article about this but I'm the one making up the argument.

You're absolutely making up that:
1. The Brewers are fully to blame (he still did the same thing to the Padres).
2. It actually mattered.

Sure, the system is weird (but actually pretty good for the players on the whole) just like running backs kinda get boned in the NFL. Just because somebody complains about something slightly not beneficial to them vs. other players doesn't mean it actually matters or is bad. If the NFL changes the system to put more money in Saquon Barkley's pocket even though the market has decided he doesn't deserve it, that money is coming out of Kenny Clark's pocket.

[ReasonablySober]

In his last year before arbitration Hader appeared in 55 games and threw 81 innings. He had a 2.05 xFIP, his career best. 2.6 WAR, tied for his career best. He had a career high in strikeouts per nine and a career low in walks per nine. The Brewers won 96 games.

There is no possible way to make an argument that Hader was better for the Brewers as a 9th inning only guy. It's laughable that anyone would make that argument.

[Kerb Hohl]

In his last year before arbitration Hader appeared in 55 games and threw 81 innings. He had a 2.05 xFIP, his career best. 2.6 WAR, tied for his career best. He had a career high in strikeouts per nine and a career low in walks per nine. The Brewers won 96 games.

There is no possible way to make an argument that Hader was better for the Brewers as a 9th inning only guy. It's laughable that anyone would make that argument.

It's possible he would not have been able to sustain such a pace. I actually am on his side in the usage thing as his velocity was up when he limited his innings.

None of it ended up mattering otherwise. If he would've thrown 75+ innings for the Padres carrying them to the playoffs or something after they agreed on a middle ground for 2023, I think you'd maybe have a point. Instead, he kept the same rules and changed his argument to, "actually, the system is bad for me and they only value saves." With this, I agree with him. But now we know that Attanasio not donating an extra million to him was not the reason.

[ReasonablySober]

In his last year before arbitration Hader appeared in 55 games and threw 81 innings. He had a 2.05 xFIP, his career best. 2.6 WAR, tied for his career best. He had a career high in strikeouts per nine and a career low in walks per nine. The Brewers won 96 games.

There is no possible way to make an argument that Hader was better for the Brewers as a 9th inning only guy. It's laughable that anyone would make that argument.

It's possible he would not have been able to sustain such a pace. I actually am on his side in the usage thing as his velocity was up when he limited his innings.

None of it ended up mattering otherwise. If he would've thrown 75+ innings for the Padres carrying them to the playoffs or something after they agreed on a middle ground for 2023, I think you'd maybe have a point. Instead, he kept the same rules and changed his argument to, "actually, the system is bad for me and they only value saves." With this, I agree with him. But now we know that Attanasio not donating an extra million to him was not the reason.

The whole thing started because of Stearns and Attanasio. Just because he didn't change his rules when he was one year away from a free agent payday (a pretty big factor here!) doesn't change that fact.

[MVP2110]

Again, let's forget even the specifics of Hader & Burnes. We could go back & forth all day on these or other arb cases in MLB. What is your alternative besides the owners just willingly giving the players more money? What would you like to see instead? And maybe more importantly why hasn't the MLBPA tried to do something different if this system is as awful as we all think it is?

[Kerb Hohl]

In his last year before arbitration Hader appeared in 55 games and threw 81 innings. He had a 2.05 xFIP, his career best. 2.6 WAR, tied for his career best. He had a career high in strikeouts per nine and a career low in walks per nine. The Brewers won 96 games.

There is no possible way to make an argument that Hader was better for the Brewers as a 9th inning only guy. It's laughable that anyone would make that argument.

It's possible he would not have been able to sustain such a pace. I actually am on his side in the usage thing as his velocity was up when he limited his innings.

None of it ended up mattering otherwise. If he would've thrown 75+ innings for the Padres carrying them to the playoffs or something after they agreed on a middle ground for 2023, I think you'd maybe have a point. Instead, he kept the same rules and changed his argument to, "actually, the system is bad for me and they only value saves." With this, I agree with him. But now we know that Attanasio not donating an extra million to him was not the reason.

The whole thing started because of Stearns and Attanasio. Just because he didn't change his rules when he was one year away from a free agent payday (a pretty big factor here!) doesn't change that fact.

Corbin Burnes, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Hader, let's set aside that I try to avoid political stuff, have touched people the wrong way in those avenues (all of one side), but also seem to have something in common:

They want to maximize their value generally to the team's detriment by that meaning it's harder for the team to add around them because they try to get the most (hell yes, go for it, dude. I agree). They like to say one thing and do another thing. They like to go to the media and air out their grievances even if they got what they wanted (Hader aired out the Padres this offseason, Burnes is still throwing strays at the Brewers after his trade, Rodgers does after contract extensions with the Packers).

I think you might need to reconsider this "yeah, he was one year away from free agency" thing. These guys are well within their rights and supported by me in going to get the biggest bag they can. But their actions tell me that I'm not to truly trust everything they say to the media. Something tells me that Hader would've done this **** anyways given the history of these guys.

[ReasonablySober]

Again, let's forget even the specifics of Hader & Burnes. We could go back & forth all day on these or other arb cases in MLB. What is your alternative besides the owners just willingly giving the players more money? What would you like to see instead? And maybe more importantly why hasn't the MLBPA tried to do something different if this system is as awful as we all think it is?

The system is bad for plenty of reasons, but the system isn't why Burnes and Hader didn't get the money they were looking for. The Brewers absolutely could have done so. It happens every single season.

[ReasonablySober]

Here's what Boston did when their elite young closer came up for arbitration for the first time:

The Boston Red Sox signed closer Jonathan Papelbon to a one-year contract worth $6.25 million Tuesday, the largest deal in history for a closer who was eligible for arbitration for the first time.

The two sides also discussed multiple-year deals but were unable to strike an agreement. Papelbon will not be eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.

Papelbon's contract surpasses the $5.65 million deal signed by White Sox closer Bobby Jenks the day before as the largest ever for a closer who entered arbitration for the first time. The previous record was $5 million, by Eric Gagne, in 2004.

Papelbon's contract is also the third highest in history by any first-time arbitration-eligible player. The only ones higher were Ryan Howard's $10 million arbitration award last year and the $7.4 million that was awarded to Miguel Cabrera after he won his case in 2007. So Papelbon's deal becomes the biggest ever by any first-time eligible pitcher -- starter or reliever.

Boston has not gone to arbitration since Theo Epstein became general manager.

"Theo's philosophy is that we have to be prepared every single time. We keep that in mind with the negotiations," assistant GM Jed Hoyer said. "But, if possible, it's the right thing to do. [In arbitration] you have to go in there and speak ill of your own player. We're happy so far we've been able to avoid it."

The Brewers could have done this. Nothing about the system or rules say they couldn't.