Brewers 2024 Discussion - Woodruff Back on 2 Year Deal

[Kerb Hohl]

The Brewers signed OF Blake Perkins to a MLB deal, despite him not playing in MLB before. Doesn't mean he's going to make the opening day roster, but he offers depth.

He's a glove first guy with great zone awareness, and the power started to show up last season.

Interesting pickup.

Has all of his options so he probably will just shuttle back and forth as the 5th OF (PR and defensive replacement) and then be gone/demoted once guys like Frelick have their service time manipulated to the new rules.

[Kerb Hohl]

I just hope Arnold can bring some of that Rays magic with him. I'm okay bottoming out and trying to get a new crop of players up here. Personally, I think it makes more sense when small market teams have a group of players to contend with, then when that team needs to start being paid, move those players for prospects and start a new crop, and hope to hit lightning in a bottle. Heck, the Marlins used to do this all the time, and when their crop of players came up, they were actually true contenders.

If they deal Woodruff and Burnes, of course I want them to shoot for the moon a bit with younger/high ceiling prospects, But I’m not sure they’ll bottom out.

If they want, by 2024, they’ll have a seasoned young OF all with 5-6 years of control and they can do the Yelich/Cain moves to build around that cheap core. Hopefully Woody/Burnes net some high-end pitchers.

[leroyjw10]

As much as I hate it, it's time to trade Corbin. There's no way they'll be able to resign him and this team is too far away from legit competing for a World Series. Best to trade him now while you can still get optimal value. Here's what I'd go for, which was validated by the Trade Simulator (https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/) at Baseball Trade Values.

Brewers send out Corbin and get back catcher Francisco Alvarzez (top prospect in baseball), 3B/DH Mark Vientos (#7 Mets prospect) and RHP Blake Tidwell (Mets #8 prospect).

Brewers lose one of the best pitchers in the game, but get back two guys that could play at the major league level this year at positions of need, plus a longer-term pitching prospect.

Mets get one of the best pitchers in baseball to either group with Scherzer and deGrom or replace deGrom if he leaves. Mets are going all in and Burnes (at a discount for the next two years) better helps them get there.

[MickeyDavis]

Hearing something about the Brewers wanting to attach Yelich to any Burnes deal. I'm dubious

[Matches Malone]

Hearing something about the Brewers wanting to attach Yelich to any Burnes deal. I'm dubious

Just a national writer, making up hypothetical trade scenarios.

My guess is their thinking is Yelich's deal washes out a big chunk of value, therefore we should be okay getting prospects not in the top 4 for our silver slugger and ace.

As much as getting rid of Yelich's deal would allow us massive freedom, the return feels way too light.

Read on Twitter

[ReasonablySober]

Just an abysmal trade in that blog.

[coolhandluke121]

No way I'm accepting negative value for Yelich if they're just making rebuilding trades anyway. If going younger is the plan, their payroll will be low enough without getting out from under that contract, which by the way isn't even that egregious by modern baseball standards. Hell, one good year without the shift and it might not be a negative at all.

[MickeyDavis]

Cy Young winner with TWO years of control is the most valuable trade piece we’ve ever had. Can’t dilute that value. There’s no doubt he’ll be traded, it’s just a matter of when. I don’t think it will be this winter.

[M-C-G]

No way I'm accepting negative value for Yelich if they're just making rebuilding trades anyway. If going younger is the plan, their payroll will be low enough without getting out from under that contract, which by the way isn't even that egregious by modern baseball standards. Hell, one good year without the shift and it might not be a negative at all.

Great point about what Yelich could do with no shift. If that is banned guys like him, Moustakas, etc are going to see big jumps in their BA


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[tski1972]

Cy Young winner with TWO years of control is the most valuable trade piece we’ve ever had. Can’t dilute that value. There’s no doubt he’ll be traded, it’s just a matter of when. I don’t think it will be this winter.

It should be this winter *if* they are trading him. Value is only going to go down.

[MVP2110]

Cy Young winner with TWO years of control is the most valuable trade piece we’ve ever had. Can’t dilute that value. There’s no doubt he’ll be traded, it’s just a matter of when. I don’t think it will be this winter.

It should be this winter *if* they are trading him. Value is only going to go down.

It depends on the offers they receive. They could absolutely determine that 1 year of Burnes plus a return next year is greater value then what they can get now. I think the Brewers want to try and make one more run with this Burnes/Woodruff/Adames group and then 2 are likely dealt away next offseason and 1 is extended either this year or next(unlikely to be Burnes imo). I don't see the Brewers ever going into a full rebuild, it's clear they value a shot at the playoffs every season

[ReasonablySober]

Cy Young winner with TWO years of control is the most valuable trade piece we’ve ever had. Can’t dilute that value. There’s no doubt he’ll be traded, it’s just a matter of when. I don’t think it will be this winter.

It should be this winter *if* they are trading him. Value is only going to go down.

It depends on the offers they receive. They could absolutely determine that 1 year of Burnes plus a return next year is greater value then what they can get now. I think the Brewers want to try and make one more run with this Burnes/Woodruff/Adames group and then 2 are likely dealt away next offseason and 1 is extended either this year or next(unlikely to be Burnes imo). I don't see the Brewers ever going into a full rebuild, it's clear they value a shot at the playoffs every season

To me, you either trade everyone this offseason, or you don't plan on trading them at all.

I think it's impossible to look at the roster and see a legit WS contender this year. The bullpen is an unknown, the offense is likely terrible, and the rotation is probably closer to '22 than '21.

So if you're not trading them then you have to think you're going all in on '24. Burnes, Woodty, Adames and others on their final years and by then there's clarity on which young guys can contribute.

I think it's a stupid plan but I could see the rationalization.

[DanoMac]

There’s been some scuttlebutt that Renfroe was traded because he wasn’t liked in the clubhouse and refused advanced stat advice. Would make sense why he’s on his 5th team in 5 years

[leroyjw10]

Read an ESPN article (https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35131093/perfect-mlb-offseason-plans-5-key-teams) that suggested the Dodgers trade for both Burnes and Adames. With that in mind, proposed (and had accepted) the below trade at Baseball TradeValues.com:

MKE out/LAD in: Burnes and Adames
LAD out/MKE in: C Diego Cartaya (#1 Dodgers prospect), RHP Bobby Miller (#2 Dodgers prospect), 1B/3B Miguel Vargas (#3 Dodgers prospect), RHP Landon Knack (#11 Dodgers prospect) and LHP Maddux Bruns (#14 Dodgers prospect).

Brewers get the top three Dodgers prospects, all of whom fill a need and could play next year, while adding two additionaly longer-term prospects.

[ReasonablySober]

Read an ESPN article (https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/35131093/perfect-mlb-offseason-plans-5-key-teams) that suggested the Dodgers trade for both Burnes and Adames. With that in mind, proposed (and had accepted) the below trade at Baseball TradeValues.com:

MKE out/LAD in: Burnes and Adames
LAD out/MKE in: C Diego Cartaya (#1 Dodgers prospect), RHP Bobby Miller (#2 Dodgers prospect), 1B/3B Miguel Vargas (#3 Dodgers prospect), RHP Landon Knack (#11 Dodgers prospect) and LHP Maddux Bruns (#14 Dodgers prospect).

Brewers get the top three Dodgers prospects, all of whom fill a need and could play next year, while adding two additionaly longer-term prospects.

Here's what was written:

Then, a blockbuster deal with the Brewers. Both Adames and Burnes have two years remaining of team control, and while it would require a ton of prospect capital to swing such a trade, the Dodgers have the young talent to do it -- players like catcher Diego Cartaya, pitcher Dustin May, one of Miller or Pepiot, third baseman Vargas or infielder Michael Busch. Overwhelm the Brewers. Make it happen. Then make Evan Phillips the closer.

Much better idea here than the clown proposal last week. I'd be down with that.

[ReasonablySober]

Sure sounds like Mark A is intent on contending in the Central next season. Dumb.

[LUKE23]

Sure sounds like Mark A is intent on contending in the Central next season. Dumb.

What did he say?

[ReasonablySober]

Sure sounds like Mark A is intent on contending in the Central next season. Dumb.

What did he say?

MILWAUKEE -- As the Brewers approach a crossroads with so many core players inching toward free agency, principal owner Mark Attanasio set a tone early in this offseason.

The posture, he said, remains the same: Postseason or bust.

“I can tell you we’re taking a harder look at things than we had in seasons that we made the playoffs, and I think that will make us better,” Attanasio said in October. “We’re really intent on getting back to the playoffs next year. Really intent.”

[LUKE23]

MILWAUKEE -- As the Brewers approach a crossroads with so many core players inching toward free agency, principal owner Mark Attanasio set a tone early in this offseason.

The posture, he said, remains the same: Postseason or bust.

“I can tell you we’re taking a harder look at things than we had in seasons that we made the playoffs, and I think that will make us better,” Attanasio said in October. “We’re really intent on getting back to the playoffs next year. Really intent.”

Which is fine, if you actually upgrade the team with significant enough talent that contending is possible. But trotting out pretty much the same team next year (sans Hader, plus a few rookies) isn't going to be good enough.

Personally - I would go the other way. If they traded their top guys they could probably push for the top farm system in the game and build a really positive long-term outlook. If you keep Burnes/Woodruff/Adames up to FA, then you better be making other moves during those two seasons to legitimately go for it.

[coolhandluke121]

I'm fine with giving it a few months before making major trades, but that better not be an excuse for keeping the team together if they're 4 games over .500 at the deadline or something like that.

People always say you can get more if you trade them now than if you wait until the deadline, but while that makes logical sense, it's not always what actually happens. Buyers often get more impulsive closer to the deadline, and with so many teams making the playoffs these days, many teams are going to be more concerned with playoff availability than the first few months of the season - not to mention often wanting more time to evaluate their needs and injuries before making a big impulse trade.