2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[wichmae]

Yea Aguilar would be the guy who would have to go out. To be honest IM surprised he hasnt been talked about in trades that much. I could see quite a few AL teams intrigued by him.

[DingleJerry]

If Santana stays then Jesus is gone. And Braun will be in the lineup his 5 days a week if healthy. He's not going to become a PH bench guy. If healthy Braun is still the best hitter on the team. But you keep Thames there because you know Braun needs his regular days off plus his likely one or two trips to the 10 day at least. Also, Cain has injury history and even Santana was hurt all of 2016 really. So the problem likely would take care of itself as injuries almost inevitably happen.

That said, I still fully expect Santana to be traded for a P rather than a 20 mil per year FA signing.

[Kerb Hohl]

If Santana stays then Jesus is gone. And Braun will be in the lineup his 5 days a week if healthy. He's not going to become a PH bench guy. If healthy Braun is still the best hitter on the team. But you keep Thames there because you know Braun needs his regular days off plus his likely one or two trips to the 10 day at least. Also, Cain has injury history and even Santana was hurt all of 2016 really. So the problem likely would take care of itself as injuries almost inevitably happen.

That said, I still fully expect Santana to be traded for a P rather than a 20 mil per year FA signing.

At this point, they've kinda boxed themselves into the Santana trade so I think it'll happen.

My preferences:

1. Santana for prospects. Then a $15-20 million/year pitcher signed.
2. Santana essentially straight up for a pitcher.

1000 other things

1003. Trade Santana and half of our farm system for a pitcher.

[Iheartfootball]

If we keep Domingo and put Braun at 1st and trade Thames/Aguilar I would actually prefer putting Braun in the 5 hole

Cain CF
Yelich RF
Domingo LF
Shaw 3B
Braun 1B
Walker (hopefully) 2B
Arcia SS
Pina/Vogt C

Which of Thames/Aguilar would you keep? I'd only expect Braun to play 100-125 games. You're forced to pick between two guys who are better platooning then just filling in when Braun is out based on their splits. I wonder if you would just get better production keeping those two and keeping Braun in LF. Santana/Philips off the bench.

Yeah, they need to make a trade to clear this up.

You keep Thames 100%. Aguilar is useless if you have another RH hitter at 1B.

Playing Domingo Santana off the bench would be insane.

I agree that Santana off the bench would be dumb. That's why they have to make another move. I don't like Thames. At all. His second half was garbage because pitchers figured him out and he made no adjustments.

Braun can't be relied on at 1st so to me he has to play in the OF.

Wait, wait, I got it. Move Shaw to first and Braun to his natural position at 3rd. WOAHS SOLVD.

[Kerb Hohl]

Which of Thames/Aguilar would you keep? I'd only expect Braun to play 100-125 games. You're forced to pick between two guys who are better platooning then just filling in when Braun is out based on their splits. I wonder if you would just get better production keeping those two and keeping Braun in LF. Santana/Philips off the bench.

Yeah, they need to make a trade to clear this up.

You keep Thames 100%. Aguilar is useless if you have another RH hitter at 1B.

Playing Domingo Santana off the bench would be insane.

I don't like Thames. At all. His second half was garbage because pitchers figured him out and he made no adjustments.

Might wanna check his September stats.

[Iheartfootball]

If Santana stays then Jesus is gone. And Braun will be in the lineup his 5 days a week if healthy. He's not going to become a PH bench guy. If healthy Braun is still the best hitter on the team. But you keep Thames there because you know Braun needs his regular days off plus his likely one or two trips to the 10 day at least. Also, Cain has injury history and even Santana was hurt all of 2016 really. So the problem likely would take care of itself as injuries almost inevitably happen.

That said, I still fully expect Santana to be traded for a P rather than a 20 mil per year FA signing.

That...will never happen. If they play Braun at 1B they need to treat him like a part time 1B.

[Kerb Hohl]

That...will never happen. If they play Braun at 1B they need to treat him like a part time 1B.

Average of 6.5 games per week. Braun plays 5 (in theory).

5/6.5 = ~77%

77% of 162 is 125 games.

Braun the past 4 years has played 135, 140, 135, 104. He'll be close to 5 times/week during the stints he is healthy enough not to be on the DL.

Braun will be part-time at 1B because, yeah, he can't be fully counted on...but he also just won't be a great defender there and I'd like to only take that burden on part of the time.

[Iheartfootball]

You keep Thames 100%. Aguilar is useless if you have another RH hitter at 1B.

Playing Domingo Santana off the bench would be insane.

I don't like Thames. At all. His second half was garbage because pitchers figured him out and he made no adjustments.

Might wanna check his September stats.

Eh, I guess my main point is that I would expect him to regress in this year because there is no way he recreates his first half stats from 2017 which greatly inflated his overall numbers.

I hope I'm wrong, but to me that's the biggest hole on the team - okay, SP is the greatest hole. But 1B can be filled with Braun part time and trading Santana for a pitcher. I think we are on the same page on that.

[DingleJerry]

If Santana stays then Jesus is gone. And Braun will be in the lineup his 5 days a week if healthy. He's not going to become a PH bench guy. If healthy Braun is still the best hitter on the team. But you keep Thames there because you know Braun needs his regular days off plus his likely one or two trips to the 10 day at least. Also, Cain has injury history and even Santana was hurt all of 2016 really. So the problem likely would take care of itself as injuries almost inevitably happen.

That said, I still fully expect Santana to be traded for a P rather than a 20 mil per year FA signing.

That...will never happen. If they play Braun at 1B they need to treat him like a part time 1B.

Of course he's gonna play some in the OF still, so sure call it part time if you want. But Braun isn't the guy going to the bench. If healthy he's the best hitter so he'll play. Thames is the bench guy, not Braun it's just that Braun in this situation has more positional flex than Thames. But because I doubt they have much confidence in Braun's D at 1B I'm pretty sure the Santana trade will happen. But if not and they deem Braun adequate at 1B and keep Santana, then when any of the OF hits the DL Braun goes back to OF, there will be a lot of moving around. When the other Of get their planned days off Braun goes to OF and Thames gets to start. And of course Braun is likely to miss 30-40 games himself. Likely plenty of PT to go around as long as Braun has this flex.

[Kerb Hohl]

I don't like Thames. At all. His second half was garbage because pitchers figured him out and he made no adjustments.

Might wanna check his September stats.

Eh, I guess my main point is that I would expect him to regress in this year because there is no way he recreates his first half stats from 2017 which greatly inflated his overall numbers.

I hope I'm wrong, but to me that's the biggest hole on the team - okay, SP is the greatest hole. But 1B can be filled with Braun part time and trading Santana for a pitcher. I think we are on the same page on that.

I'm not extremely confident in Thames either, but he fills the void even if he regresses a bit.

I guess you could do something like trade both Thames and Aguilar and sign Logan Morrison, but he's in a similar position to Thames. Jesus Aguilar is a very, very bad fit alongside Braun.

[DingleJerry]

Thames splits and production should be ok if he never plays vs a lefty. I'm confident if the roll with Thames/Jesus hard platoon that it'll be adequate and obviously pretty cheap. And that's coming from someone that expects regression from them, Thames will not repeat his April that skewed his numbers. And really Jesus came out of nowhere and could be a fluke. But put them together and I think you're fine even though it'll be a bit worse than last year.

[Bernman]

I saw the Brewers signed a guy like Matt Albers, and my first thought was I really hope this guy is fat so he can be called Fatt Albers. And I was not disappointed. He's like the fattest guy in the league. That had to be a self fulfilling prophecy.

[bizarro]

I saw the Brewers signed a guy like Matt Albers, and my first thought was I really hope this guy is fat so he can be called Fatt Albers. And I was not disappointed. He's like the fattest guy in the league. That had to be a self fulfilling prophecy.

[DingleJerry]

Just like Fat Matt Adams with the Cards over the years

[Bernman]

It'll be as much comic relief as a chubby ginger (Todd Coffey) sprinting in from the bullpen. If Fatt Albers sprints in that'll be next level. I don't think he'd be able to lift his arm after though.

[El Duderino]

.203 BABIP, 92.4 LOB% for Albers. I'm sure he'll be just great. He wasn't lucky at all last year.

Would you at least attempt to look at batted ball splits before spewing this short sighted garbage to push your ridiculous agenda.

There was a grand total of one reliever in 2017 with a BABIP lower than Albers this year. There was also one with a LOB% higher than Albers.

And that's why he got only 2.5 million per instead of 7-10 million like a reliever typically would get with a 1.62 ERA and 0.852 WHIP.

The market said we don't expect amazing stats like those to be repeated given his BABIP, which helped lead to only 35 hits allowed in 61 innings.

That said, it doesn't also have to mean that he'll be terrible either. He has been productive in other seasons prior to last year and at 2.5 million per, i'm sure Stearns will be more than happy to see Albers post numbers like he did in 2012, 2013, or 2015. I f so, he'd be a bargain.

[crkone]

It'll be as much comic relief as a chubby ginger (Todd Coffey) sprinting in from the bullpen. If Fatt Albers sprints in that'll be next level. I don't think he'd be able to lift his arm after though.

His left arm will probably go numb after running that distance.

[trwi7]

This is amazing.

Me 4 days ago: We might have lost some leverage in getting value for Santana.

Others: We'll get value for Santana.

Me: Ehh.

Others: The Marlins got value for Yelich and everyone knew they were trading him.

Me: No, they didn't.

Others: Yes they did.

Me: No, they were shopping him. They weren't going to trade him if they didn't get an offer they liked. We almost have to trade Santana based on Braun and Cain's no trade clauses and just acquiring Yelich. We're not going to go into the season with 4 starting outfielders and Thames, especially when we have a huge need for pitching and if we do, we're not maximizing our roster.

Four days later

Domingo Santana: The Brewer's came close to trading Domingo over the weekend. However, their pickups of Yelich and Cain may have impeded that. Apparently, the Brewers had offers for Cleveland, Tampa and one more team on the table. After the Brewer's acquisition of the OF's, it is known that Tampa upped what they wanted in return (Corbin Burnes) in a package for Archer. Stearns said no. Trade with T.B. has been put in limbo for now. My source gave the odds of Santana now be traded are at 75%.

Wait, are you saying that when the Brewers got Yelich and Cain that other teams wanted the Brewers to offer more because other teams feel that they lost leverage and lowered Santana's value? I was told that couldn't possibly happen.

Yes.

[humanrefutation]

This is amazing.

Me 4 days ago: We might have lost some leverage in getting value for Santana.

Others: We'll get value for Santana.

Me: Ehh.

Others: The Marlins got value for Yelich and everyone knew they were trading him.

Me: No, they didn't.

Others: Yes they did.

Me: No, they were shopping him. They weren't going to trade him if they didn't get an offer they liked. We almost have to trade Santana based on Braun and Cain's no trade clauses and just acquiring Yelich. We're not going to go into the season with 4 starting outfielders and Thames, especially when we have a huge need for pitching and if we do, we're not maximizing our roster.

Four days later

Domingo Santana: The Brewer's came close to trading Domingo over the weekend. However, their pickups of Yelich and Cain may have impeded that. Apparently, the Brewers had offers for Cleveland, Tampa and one more team on the table. After the Brewer's acquisition of the OF's, it is known that Tampa upped what they wanted in return (Corbin Burnes) in a package for Archer. Stearns said no. Trade with T.B. has been put in limbo for now. My source gave the odds of Santana now be traded are at 75%.

Wait, are you saying that when the Brewers got Yelich and Cain that other teams wanted the Brewers to offer more because other teams feel that they lost leverage and lowered Santana's value? I was told that couldn't possibly happen.

Yes.

Yeah, but that's a classic bluff, IMO. That "leverage" only matters if the team wasn't ever going to make a deal in the first place. Wait a little longer, and they'll come back to the table.

FWIW, though, if the Brewers had a deal for Yelich, I would have tried to swing the Santana trade first.

[DingleJerry]

Maybe it was a done deal and TB boned us. Might be a burned bridge if TB backed out of a verbal agreement. That's the risk of dangling so many plates in the air.