2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[Turk Nowitzki]

I don't know why ending up with Arrieta would be a bad thing.

32, declining velocity, declining ground ball rates, harder contact, costs a draft pick.

And the Cubs never showed any interest in signing Arrieta. Even if Darvish signed somewhere else they most likely weren't going to re-sign him.

That seems kind of impossible to prove. They rightfully had their sights set on the better bet long term in Darvish. If he had signed elsewhere I could easily see them having gone back to Arrieta.

[Bernman]

I don't know why ending up with Arrieta would be a bad thing.

32, declining velocity, declining ground ball rates, harder contact, costs a draft pick.

And the Cubs never showed any interest in signing Arrieta. Even if Darvish signed somewhere else they most likely weren't going to re-sign him.

I know some of the arguments, but you admit that to more justify the previous moves it requires a follow-up for a potential ace so they can be a contender in the interim, and Arrieta is one of the best options available. So as long as they don't grossly overpay him to impede their moves going forward it'll be good news if he signs here. Can't turn back time. The Yelich and Cain moves were already made. Full speed ahead.

[trwi7]

I don't know why ending up with Arrieta would be a bad thing.

32, declining velocity, declining ground ball rates, harder contact, costs a draft pick.

And the Cubs never showed any interest in signing Arrieta. Even if Darvish signed somewhere else they most likely weren't going to re-sign him.

I know some of the arguments, but you admit that to more justify the previous moves it requires a follow-up for a potential ace so they can be a contender in the interim, and Arrieta is one of the best options available. So as long as they don't grossly overpay him to impede their moves going forward it'll be good news if he signs here. Can't turn back time. The Yelich and Cain moves were already made. Full speed ahead.

I think the worst thing we could do at this point is dig in even deeper for at best a chance at a one game playoff.

[Kerb Hohl]

I have my doubts about Arrieta, but I’d take him. Almost nobody in the current core really warrants a 2nd contract and they’ll have room in 4-5 years regardless. That will be the end of Arrieta’s deal anyways.

Maybe we’ll regret it if our real window is 2020 and beyond, but if Mark thinks a free agent will fit in their budget, I’m all for it.

[Bernman]

I think the worst thing we could do at this point is dig in even deeper for at best a chance at a one game playoff.

That's hyperbolic to claim that's the upside when they got close to that already last year and confirmation bias from always wanting to tank for numerous years regardless of sport. That plan here was already abandoned. Worst thing would do is to stop short of potential contender by not adding a possible ace, like the Bucks in not acquiring a starting center after offloading a 1st for Bledsoe earlier.

[Kerb Hohl]

I think the worst thing we could do at this point is dig in even deeper for at best a chance at a one game playoff.

That's hyperbolic to claim that's the upside when they got close to that already last year and confirmation bias from always wanting to tank for numerous years regardless of sport. That plan here was already abandoned.

I’m gonna take both sides here.

I think we’re way behind the Cubs right now. We had a lot of overachievers last year and can’t count on Nelson being dominant this year like he was last year...where we still finished way behind the Cubs.

If Mark wants to spend free agency money and not prospects to keep trying to take them down, I’m fine with it. Keep the prospect pipeline intact.

Every projection system including Vegas has us 10+ games behind the Cubs and that was before the Darvish news. If we dump more prospects into this arms race, I’m done.

[trwi7]

If Mark wants to spend free agency money and not prospects to keep trying to take them down, I’m fine with it. Keep the prospect pipeline intact.

But here's the problem with that. Those contracts are going to eventually go to ****. So now we're going to be saddled with $40 million in dead payroll when we have to pay the guys we actually want to pay and when our window should be opening.

[ReasonablySober]

Read on Twitter

Safe to say the Brewers drove up the price.

[Kerb Hohl]

If Mark wants to spend free agency money and not prospects to keep trying to take them down, I’m fine with it. Keep the prospect pipeline intact.

But here's the problem with that. Those contracts are going to eventually go to ****. So now we're going to be saddled with $40 million in dead payroll when we have to pay the guys we actually want to pay and when our window should be opening.

If they keep it short, I don’t think it’ll be that bad. Maybe in 2020 the window opens and they’ve got Cain and a year or 2 of Arrieta left. We won’t be major FA players at that point anyways.

I’m not saying this is the best path, but I’m ok with free agency to an extent. Any more prospects given up and I’m done.

I agree with you but I don’t think it would make me renounce fandom like trading the rest of the farm for Archer would.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Meh its not a shocker that yu went there. As far as the brewers next move I'm kind of torn. I don't want them to be foolish but I also don't think they should base decisions on what the cubs do.

Waiting out the cubs to be bad just isn't a sound plan. With the kind of money they can spend theres no sure timeline for that to happen. Just need to worry about whats best for both the current and future brewers.

[Kerb Hohl]

Meh its not a shocker that yu went there. As far as the brewers next move I'm kind of torn. I don't want them to be foolish but I also don't think they should base decisions on what the cubs do.

Waiting out the cubs to be bad just isn't a sound plan. With the kind of money they can spend theres no sure timeline for that to happen. Just need to worry about whats best for both the current and future brewers.

There’s a timeline for sure. Around 2020 they start losing a key player to free agency that is entering his early/mid 30s every year.

That’s a long time to wait (Bryant/Rizzo are ‘21/‘22) so I’m ok with Mark wanting to spend some free agency money to try to beat them now. Emptying the farm would make me leave and never come back a la the 2002-2011 era Bucks.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Meh its not a shocker that yu went there. As far as the brewers next move I'm kind of torn. I don't want them to be foolish but I also don't think they should base decisions on what the cubs do.

Waiting out the cubs to be bad just isn't a sound plan. With the kind of money they can spend theres no sure timeline for that to happen. Just need to worry about whats best for both the current and future brewers.

There’s a timeline for sure. Around 2020 they start losing a key player to free agency that is entering his early/mid 30s every year.

That’s a long time to wait (Bryant/Rizzo are ‘21/‘22) so I’m ok with Mark wanting to spend some free agency money to try to beat them now. Emptying the farm would make me leave and never come back a la the 2002-2011 era Bucks.

Maybe but with some new local TV money coming and a taste of winning they could go full dodgers and simply spend their way out of trouble.

It sucks but I view it like if you're in a division with the yanks, sox, or dodgers where you just have to assume they will be good. Then theres still the **** cardinals to deal with. My overall point is its dangerous to wait for window that might never open.

[trwi7]

It's even more dangerous to blow your load before you're ready.

[WeekapaugGroove]

It's even more dangerous to blow your load before you're ready.

Sure and you don't want to sit with a flaccid dick for 10 years waiting for the perfect 10 that never comes.

A nice happy medium seems reasonable. If they want to throw a little money at a starter and see how it goes this year I don't think it will ruin the franchise. Win some games have some fun and hope to get lucky.

[Iheartfootball]

Meh its not a shocker that yu went there. As far as the brewers next move I'm kind of torn. I don't want them to be foolish but I also don't think they should base decisions on what the cubs do.

Waiting out the cubs to be bad just isn't a sound plan. With the kind of money they can spend theres no sure timeline for that to happen. Just need to worry about whats best for both the current and future brewers.

There’s a timeline for sure. Around 2020 they start losing a key player to free agency that is entering his early/mid 30s every year.

That’s a long time to wait (Bryant/Rizzo are ‘21/‘22) so I’m ok with Mark wanting to spend some free agency money to try to beat them now. Emptying the farm would make me leave and never come back a la the 2002-2011 era Bucks.

Maybe but with some new local TV money coming and a taste of winning they could go full dodgers and simply spend their way out of trouble.

It sucks but I view it like if you're in a division with the yanks, sox, or dodgers where you just have to assume they will be good. Then theres still the **** cardinals to deal with. My overall point is its dangerous to wait for window that might never open.

I agree with everything you’ve said except the ‘spending their way out of it’. It’s just don’t think it’s possible. That’s why the balance between trading prospects and signing FA’s is so delicate. Stearns has to be creative going forward.

[bizarro]

It's even more dangerous to blow your load before you're ready.

I think that's a bigger danger the older one is, medically speaking. Given how young the Brewers are, premature load blowing is more due to exuberance than it is the health of the organization.

[trwi7]

It's even more dangerous to blow your load before you're ready.

I think that's a bigger danger the older one is, medically speaking. Given how young the Brewers are, premature load blowing is more due to exuberance than it is the health of the organization.

WE. AREN'T. YOUNG.

[bizarro]

It's even more dangerous to blow your load before you're ready.

I think that's a bigger danger the older one is, medically speaking. Given how young the Brewers are, premature load blowing is more due to exuberance than it is the health of the organization.

WE. AREN'T. YOUNG.

Hey, I'm just speaking to your premature load-blowing. Medically speaking, the Brewers are young. It's not personal, Twirlz. If anyone in that clubhouse is prematurely blowing anything, I think there are some sports' psychologists who can get it back on the mend.

[WeekapaugGroove]

It's even more dangerous to blow your load before you're ready.

I think that's a bigger danger the older one is, medically speaking. Given how young the Brewers are, premature load blowing is more due to exuberance than it is the health of the organization.

WE. AREN'T. YOUNG.

Well if thats the case I guess they might as well go for it because their window is closing on thier old team

[humanrefutation]

I don't believe in Arietta, personally. Not at nine figures. Not at more than two years + a team option.

Just because we don't spend the money right now doesn't mean we can't spend the money in the future. Don't make the same mistakes as the Bucks. Don't overpay.