ReasonablySober wrote:Kerb Hohl wrote:Trying to keep the vibes positive on the Shane Smith thing:
In 2016/2017 when Stearns took over, there was a huge ordeal among hardened fans of, "how could this nerd let Miguel Diaz available to Rule 5 Exposure? He has electric stuff." He was great for his first 4-5 appearances with the Padres, prompting more ire, and then it turned out he was just a journeyman reliever.
Shane Smith's BABIP against is currently .138. He may be a very nice/needed depth rotation piece that we passed on, but there's a very good chance that pitching against 2 dog doo doo offenses in sub-40 degree temps has something to do with his early season success.
He's currently not hitting the 7 K/9 mark, which is already a very low bar for a pitcher that supposedly has great stuff.
Basically, there is no peripheral other than him keeping his walks kind of down that would suggest this is anywhere near sustainable.
Smith is an eye test. What you have with him is a guy who sits upper 90s and has already shown one of the best change-ups in baseball. Combine that with a quality third pitch in his curve and he's someone with all the tools. Size, stuff, dominance in the minors, he's got it all. If he was a Brewer we would be giddy right now.
But what's the worst thing about the Shane Smith situation is it was totally avoidable. There was literally no reason not to give him a spot on the 40-Man. Not when they took another pitcher in Connor Thomas, not when they DFA'd Tyler Jay shortly after. Either they **** up in their evaluation of the player, or they **** up in how they believed he was perceived around the league. Going #1 overall in the Rule 5 is absolutely damning to Arnold and his staff. That they now have to trade a well regarded prospect AND $3 million in draft capital to bring back a guy who may not even be better than Smith is legitimately one of the worst sequences of events Arnold has ever been apart of.
What you described is also Miguel Diaz. Sometimes, I just defer to the smart organization that maybe they simply didn't care and if they were able to continue to stash him off of the 40, great, but he's not considered a long-term piece so they probably weren't too attached if they lost him.
It's a small sample, but if his stuff is that electric and we're using the first 2 games to decide that he's good, he'd be striking out more than 7 batters/game.
Instead, he's faced a lukewarm/injured lineup in the Twins, and an incredibly top-heavy lineup that also kinda sucks in the Guardians. It was sub-40 degrees in both games.
Unless he misses more bats or is elite at inducing weak contact, he's going to give up homers and roughly double the .138 BABIP and be JAG at best.
