2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[Kerb Hohl]

I also think frontloading some of their contracts for a Walker, Cobb, Lynn, etc. would be smart as the Cubs have done.

They knew Heyward, Zobrist, and Lester would all be albatross contracts at a certain point but they paid it all up front when it wasn't such a burden on their payroll.

EDIT: It's hard to tell actually with those 3 guys. On Cot's, the spreadsheet seems to suggest that they're all declining but when the contracts are spelled out, it seems like they aren't declining.

[trwi7]

Regression candidates

Santana
Shaw
Pina
Phillips
Knebel
Nelson
Anderson
Hader (if moved to the rotation and probably even if he stays in the bullpen)

And not many guys that could go the other way...

Braun
Villar
Broxton, but think he is odd man out in OF.
Post-April Thames
Guerra

Obviously Nelson will regress with the injury but I would say it is more likely than not that Santana/Shaw/Phillips and Hader are more productive next year than this year. Santana just keeps getting better and will only be 25, Hader and Phillips should be with the team from the get go and should be better than what the Brewers were trotting out to start the year. Some would say career year for Shaw but he has struggled in the second half and I think the issue with his daughter is impacting his play. Knebel should still be good but this will probably be the best year of his career. Pina is an old minor league guy so I would agree with regression. Anderson probably career year as well as he showed no signs of this prior to this year. I would imagine Arcia gets better as well.

Santana is carrying a BABIP over .350. Now maybe he's one of those outliers that can actually carry one that high consistently but nobody should be shocked if he drops down to like a .245/.350/.475 hitter next year. Still productive but not as good as this year.

Shaw's in his prime and I don't see him being any better than he is currently and he's kind of sucked for a while. I don't buy his daughter impacting his play either. She was born in June and they knew about it before she was even born, so he's known about it all season but somehow it's only impacting him now?

Phillips is currently a below average offensive player even with a .405 BABIP. Just not going to keep that up and not going to be a productive hitter striking out 35% of the time which is why I said I would be looking to trade him this summer for prospect(s) when he was striking out 30% of the time in Colorado Springs.

Arcia isn't going to get any better until he learns how to take a **** pitch every now and then. Way too easy to get out.

[M-C-G]

OF: Phillips, Brinson, Santana, Broxton
IF: Shaw, Arica, Sogard/Perez, Braun/Thames, Aguilar, Villar
C: Pina, Vogt
SP: Anderson, Woodruff, Burnes, Davies, Suter, (Nelson)
RP: Knebel, Swarzak, Jeffries, Hader, Junior

I don't know, something along those lines. I love keeping Sogard and Perez because of their versatility.

I'd try to keep some longer relief guys that can pair with your starting pitchers that won't be able to get through a line up more than twice. I'd try to turn Hader and Jeffries as that guy that can give you two or three innings to pair. Maybe Junior too.


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[Gianstoppable]

I dont think we take a step back next year. The team is still really young and we have some pretty good players, plus with all the cap space we could realistically be a 90 win team. All comes down to the rotation. Our offense will be just fine. Sign a guy like Alex Cobb, see if you can get Neil Walker on a 1 year deal and sign a reliever or two like Jake McGee, Bryan Shaw, Greg Holland or guys like that.

I dont think we will be trading much off the MLB roster but if we do maybe Broxton and possibly Thames but I doubt that.

OF: Braun, Phillips, Domingo, Brinson
IF: Shaw, Arcia, Perez, Walker/Sogard, Thames, Jesus, Villar
C: Pina, Vogt
SP: Anderson, Cobb, Nelson (DL), Woodruff, Davies...next up Suter, Burnes, Hader?
RP: Knebel, Swarzak, RP FA 1, Hader, RP 2, Suter/Guerra, Jeffress, scrap heap guy or Hughes/Barnes

[wichmae]

Burnes wont be up in 2018. His highest level was only half a season at AA. He's a 2019 candidate. I also refuse to believe a player with less than 50 MLB at bats is a regression candidate.

Were obviously going to have to go hard after a starter or two. Lance Lynn is my personal flavor. We arent getting Arrieta or Yu so that second tier would be our sweet spot. Other names would be Jason Vargas, Jhoulys Chacin , and Andrew Cashner.
I also really dont have a ton of interest in Swarzak. I think he's a serious regression candidate. I would focus personally on Nicasio, Addison Reed, or Tony Watson.

[coolhandluke121]

I like Lynn but I think he gets a big contract and I don't want to touch that. He missed all last year and had an FIP of almost 5 this year. Just stay the course unless a great deal falls into your lap, like Walker wanting to stay even if he can get more elsewhere. If no other team thinks Chatwood takes a leap when he gets out of Colorado, then his next deal might prove to be a huge bargain as well.

I agree that Swarzak is a major regression candidate, but I think everyone else knows that too and that's why I think you can get him on a 1-year deal. Reed will get a pretty nice multiyear deal, Watson gives up hr's but has been really lucky with an FIP well over 4 for two years, and Nicasio has a really high career WHIP.

I fully support them trying to improve the team next year, but only if the right opportunity comes along. I don't think paying typical market value for 30-something's on multiyear deals is likely to be worth it. They had the type of season they had in large part because of building around younger players who had something to prove, so I'd much rather they just keep doing that. It's no big deal if Sabathia, Neshek, and Swarzak bomb on 1-year deals, but you'll be kicking yourself for a few years if you sign some of those other guys and they decline. You're playing with house money if you stick to one-year deals, but no so much when you talk about guys like McGee or Lynn. I'd rather gamble house money on a lesser upgrade than gamble my future flexibility on someone who's probably only marginally better.

[coolhandluke121]

Not that it matters, but apparently there's been a whole lot of "fake news" about Garza having a club option.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/matt-garza-does-not-have-2018-option-will-become-free-agent.html

[coolhandluke121]

I guess the excitement of the playoff chase was affecting me more than I thought, because almost as soon as they lost I started thinking maybe they should just sell high on some guys and take a step backwards next year.

I wouldn't trade anyone unless they get a good offer though, which is the difference between this year and the end of last year when I wanted every vet gone no matter what.

[bizarro]

What an absolutely pleasant surprise of a season. It's a shame they came up just short but, man, I really had a great time following their bounceback after bounceback and am relatively amazed they finished 10 games above .500. There was a period of time in early summer where they dipped back to even and it looked like they were heading below .500 - I was wrong again! They just repeatedly proved me wrong.

The highlight for me this year, however - even amidst a potential playoff bid - was following the minors. Had a blast going to Brewerfan each and every day for their fantastic coverage and sharing for posters here.

[LittleRooster]

Burnes wont be up in 2018. His highest level was only half a season at AA. He's a 2019 candidate. I also refuse to believe a player with less than 50 MLB at bats is a regression candidate.

Were obviously going to have to go hard after a starter or two. Lance Lynn is my personal flavor. We arent getting Arrieta or Yu so that second tier would be our sweet spot. Other names would be Jason Vargas, Jhoulys Chacin , and Andrew Cashner.
I also really dont have a ton of interest in Swarzak. I think he's a serious regression candidate. I would focus personally on Nicasio, Addison Reed, or Tony Watson.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, those 3 pitchers listed are bad news. They were all as bad or worse than Garza in most regards last year.

I'd take overpaying Cobb or Lynn. I'd rather not waste my time with slotting those guys listed above into the rotation unless they're basically the #5 garbage man that we know probably will be in middle relief half of the season just cleaning up the 10-1 games. Give me a good starter or I'd rather just go in-house.

[coolhandluke121]

Anderson/Davies/Woodruff + Suter/Hader/Wilkerson/Jungmann all blurring the lines between starter and long reliever, with 6 relievers for a total of 13 pitchers. Their versatile position players would allow you to get by with only 12. Braun replacing Aguilar as the back-up 1b would help.

[wichmae]

I think its pretty telling Jungmann not getting a call up near the end of the season. Makes him a non tender candidate. We are going to have a ton of serious decisions for the 40 man.

[Kerb Hohl]

I never understood the Jungmann hype. With Nelson going down, I think they're going to spend on someone like Lynn or Cobb.

[trwi7]

I think they're going to spend on someone like Lynn or Cobb.

So dumb.

[Kerb Hohl]

I think they're going to spend on someone like Lynn or Cobb.

So dumb.

Yes, let's roll with a $60 million dollar payroll and Brent Suter, Hader and his 150 inning limit and no changeup, and Junior Guerra pitching in the rotation for the next 3 years.

It doesn't have to be one of those two, but they will overpay some players over the next few years because I'm not sure what else they'll do.

What's the downside? I can see not spending this year and instead next year, but what is really the downside of either of those?

[trwi7]

but they will overpay some players

What's the downside?

Umm...

[Kerb Hohl]

but they will overpay some players

What's the downside?

Umm...

It would really kill if we can't bring back Travis Shaw at age 32 in 4 years or overpay to keep Chase Anderson at age 32, wouldn't it?

[trwi7]

but they will overpay some players

What's the downside?

Umm...

It would really kill if we can't sign Travis Shaw to an extension at age 32 in 4 years or overpay to keep Chase Anderson at age 32, wouldn't it?

As opposed to overpaying Cobb from his 30-34 seasons and Lynn through his 31-35 seasons?

[Kerb Hohl]

Umm...

It would really kill if we can't sign Travis Shaw to an extension at age 32 in 4 years or overpay to keep Chase Anderson at age 32, wouldn't it?

As opposed to overpaying Cobb from his 30-34 seasons and Lynn through his 31-35 seasons?

Of course it's not ideal but I'm not really sure what you do for the next 2-3 years. It's a win-now window from Mark.

I'm sure there may be a better way for Stearns to trade around get get more elite players, but you yourself have called this team a regression candidate. We're not going to tank from here. Where do we go? Those guys aren't elite but they're more 3 WAR guys to add depth.