2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[coolhandluke121]

Broxton and Perez for good bullpen prospects. I'll take wichmae's word for it on Crick. Throw in Aguilar to get Suarez too. I think SF could use some rhb bench power.

.... Personally I dont think they could swing a deal for Shaw as well. .... Broxton makes sense but not much more. Maybe Perez.

Yeah, that's what I'm suggesting. I don't think Perez or Broxton is enough to get Crick, but combining them should be more than adequate considering SF's needs and salary situation. Even combining one of them with Aguilar might be enough, though I would be surprised if that Jason Rogers lightning strikes twice, especially since they already have a great rhb platoon 1b in Posey who needs the rest anyway and doesn't require an extra roster spot.

[Kerb Hohl]

Broxton and Perez for good bullpen prospects. I'll take wichmae's word for it on Crick. Throw in Aguilar to get Suarez too. I think SF could use some rhb bench power.

.... Personally I dont think they could swing a deal for Shaw as well. .... Broxton makes sense but not much more. Maybe Perez.

Yeah, that's what I'm suggesting. I don't think Perez or Broxton is enough to get Crick, but combining them should be more than adequate considering SF's needs and salary situation. Even combining one of them with Aguilar might be enough, though I would be surprised if that Jason Rogers lightning strikes twice, especially since they already have a great rhb platoon 1b in Posey who needs the rest anyway and doesn't require an extra roster spot.

I'm not sure if Perez is very useful to the Giants. Sure, he's cheap-ish, but he won't be very cheap for too much longer. Perez is basically on a 3 year, $14 million dollar deal with options each year. He's projected at $2.5 million in arby this year and I'd imagine it would go 2.5/4/7 if he plays well (I'm not very good at this, just guessing arby values).

Point being, they can just sign someone like Howie Kendrick for $4 million for 1 year and not give up a prospect. Then, the following year, they can sign someone else for $3 million.

This would approximate what Perez offers without having to give something up for Perez and also doesn't come with the higher arbitration $ value in year 2 and 3. The Brewers probably will non-tender him after this year (hell, maybe before this year) because he'll be too expensive for his role. The Giants could even just wait for that to happen.

[dbrodz7]

Well hopefully Stearns gets priced out or stays away. This strikes me a classic Brewers pitcher passed his prime that has the potential to blow up in their face. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5017/jake-arrieta

[Kerb Hohl]

Well hopefully Stearns gets priced out or stays away. This strikes me a classic Brewers pitcher passed his prime that has the potential to blow up in their face. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5017/jake-arrieta

We'll see. Almost every free agent gets signed knowing that it'll blow up in your face. But they've got money to spend and if they can make it a short enough deal, you'd rather have Jake Arrieta pitching at a 3.80 FIP instead of Aaron Wilkerson manning the #5 spot in 2019.

We actually may have pitching depth so I'm not sure we'll end up getting too aggressive, but in the Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, Garza years...who actually missed a chance to pitch from signing those guys? Did we miss out on getting Manny Parra and Claudio Vargas more starts?

[Turk Nowitzki]

Unless you are amazing at having homegrown starting pitching(our track record is spotty at best), or want to surrender a boatload of prospects, it's hard to get good proven starting pitching. I'm not 100% opposed to it but it would be a little scary considering we basically only get one big FA contract given our relative payroll constraints.

I think we will get outbid or priced out by Boras craziness anyway so I'm not holding my breath.

[humanrefutation]

Well hopefully Stearns gets priced out or stays away. This strikes me a classic Brewers pitcher passed his prime that has the potential to blow up in their face. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5017/jake-arrieta

We'll see. Almost every free agent gets signed knowing that it'll blow up in your face. But they've got money to spend and if they can make it a short enough deal, you'd rather have Jake Arrieta pitching at a 3.80 FIP instead of Aaron Wilkerson manning the #5 spot in 2019.

We actually may have pitching depth so I'm not sure we'll end up getting too aggressive, but in the Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, Garza years...who actually missed a chance to pitch from signing those guys? Did we miss out on getting Manny Parra and Claudio Vargas more starts?

That's an odd way of looking at it. The opportunity cost from signing those guys is pretty obvious. We could have signed better guys - whether they're pitchers or hitters - or had the capacity to take on more salary from another club in a trade. In the case of Wolf and Suppan, that could have been the difference that enabled us to field a more competitive playoff team.

When you're a team that doesn't compete for the big targets, you have to absolutely nail your free agent signings when you do dip into the market. You can't overpay for crap that just sits on your payroll and sucks away money that could be spent more efficiently.

[Kerb Hohl]

Well hopefully Stearns gets priced out or stays away. This strikes me a classic Brewers pitcher passed his prime that has the potential to blow up in their face. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/5017/jake-arrieta

We'll see. Almost every free agent gets signed knowing that it'll blow up in your face. But they've got money to spend and if they can make it a short enough deal, you'd rather have Jake Arrieta pitching at a 3.80 FIP instead of Aaron Wilkerson manning the #5 spot in 2019.

We actually may have pitching depth so I'm not sure we'll end up getting too aggressive, but in the Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, Garza years...who actually missed a chance to pitch from signing those guys? Did we miss out on getting Manny Parra and Claudio Vargas more starts?

That's an odd way of looking at it. The opportunity cost from signing those guys is pretty obvious. We could have signed better guys - whether they're pitchers or hitters - or had the capacity to take on more salary from another club in a trade. In the case of Wolf and Suppan, that could have been the difference that enabled us to field a more competitive playoff team.

When you're a team that doesn't compete for the big targets, you have to absolutely nail your free agent signings when you do dip into the market. You can't overpay for crap that just sits on your payroll and sucks away money that could be spent more efficiently.

It isn't without risk. I was over-simplifying it, because, yes, if you're a small market team, the most obvious thing in the world is that you have to manage your payroll well and not sign burden contracts. I get that.

But generally, if they pass on Arrieta, as arbitrations rise and kinda hit a peak in 2020 or so...what will the Brewers have left anyways? We'll have money to spend...on another overpriced pitcher!

It's a paradox most times because "let's pass on this overpriced pitcher" is a great idea to conserve some $...that you could use to spend on a different overpriced player 2 years from then. Fielder was gonna walk (blessing) anyways. Nobody of substance left the Brewers for a huge contract that made them regret it during that timeframe that I can think of off the top of my head.

The obvious idea is that it would be nice to have the extra $ in 2 years to spend on some relievers or something like that to put you over the top. But every free agent will be an overpay basically.

The guys that want to sign 1-2 year deals are either very old or very high risk. I am all for being fiscally responsible as a small market team, but generally you're just saving the $ to absorb or have the option of overpaying someone else. The obvious argument there is that wait a year or 2 as your window then opens later, but the thing with the Brewers is that they may be able to afford another $20 million player or some good support players in 2-3 years as Braun leaves. If Arrieta is only a 4 year deal, they'll have plenty of money again in 2021. And they could probably cut their losses in a trade by 2020 if it isn't working out.

If you think Suppan/Wolf could've been replaced by better signings, my question is...who? Sure, there were some good ones over those years but it was in a sea of overpriced pitchers. Every free agent pitcher on this year's market has the same risk as Arrieta. Next year's class is similar. Sure, Keuchel might be more stable, but he might cost $150 million.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'm not a major fan of Arrieta necessarily, but I do think that I'm not a fan of the contract any free agent pitcher gets in a vacuum.

That said, even knowing that his arm is not what it was 2-3 years ago, he presents opportunity to have a borderline elite player if it works out.

I offer him 4 years, $100 million with an opt-out at 2 years. $30/$25/$25/$20 in salaries. If he's an ace, he leaves you in 2 years probably without the burden of possibly exploding in the last 2 years of his deal. If he's not, it stings a bit less for the last 2 years. Those are the kind of deals I'd be looking into.

[humanrefutation]

We'll see. Almost every free agent gets signed knowing that it'll blow up in your face. But they've got money to spend and if they can make it a short enough deal, you'd rather have Jake Arrieta pitching at a 3.80 FIP instead of Aaron Wilkerson manning the #5 spot in 2019.

We actually may have pitching depth so I'm not sure we'll end up getting too aggressive, but in the Suppan, Wolf, Lohse, Garza years...who actually missed a chance to pitch from signing those guys? Did we miss out on getting Manny Parra and Claudio Vargas more starts?

That's an odd way of looking at it. The opportunity cost from signing those guys is pretty obvious. We could have signed better guys - whether they're pitchers or hitters - or had the capacity to take on more salary from another club in a trade. In the case of Wolf and Suppan, that could have been the difference that enabled us to field a more competitive playoff team.

When you're a team that doesn't compete for the big targets, you have to absolutely nail your free agent signings when you do dip into the market. You can't overpay for crap that just sits on your payroll and sucks away money that could be spent more efficiently.

It isn't without risk. I was over-simplifying it, because, yes, if you're a small market team, the most obvious thing in the world is that you have to manage your payroll well and not sign burden contracts. I get that.

But generally, if they pass on Arrieta, as arbitrations rise and kinda hit a peak in 2020 or so...what will the Brewers have left anyways? We'll have money to spend...on another overpriced pitcher!

It's a paradox most times because "let's pass on this overpriced pitcher" is a great idea to conserve some $...that you could use to spend on a different overpriced player 2 years from then. Fielder was gonna walk (blessing) anyways. Nobody of substance left the Brewers for a huge contract that made them regret it during that timeframe that I can think of off the top of my head.

The obvious idea is that it would be nice to have the extra $ in 2 years to spend on some relievers or something like that to put you over the top. But every free agent will be an overpay basically.

The guys that want to sign 1-2 year deals are either very old or very high risk. I am all for being fiscally responsible as a small market team, but generally you're just saving the $ to absorb or have the option of overpaying someone else. The obvious argument there is that wait a year or 2 as your window then opens later, but the thing with the Brewers is that they may be able to afford another $20 million player or some good support players in 2-3 years as Braun leaves. If Arrieta is only a 4 year deal, they'll have plenty of money again in 2021. And they could probably cut their losses in a trade by 2020 if it isn't working out.

If you think every free agent is an "overpay," then by definition, they are not being overpaid. They're being paid what the market sets as the value for them.

The question is whether their production justifies their value - which is what you're getting at, I think - and the issue is how big is the gap between their salary relative to their peers and their actual on-field production. And I submit that the gap between those two factors was waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too large in the case of Suppan, Wolf, and Garza. Lohse was solid his first couple seasons here, but was crap during the final year of his contract.

I reject the premise that we're just kicking this can down the road and will be ultimately forced to invest in a crappy contract in two years. We have to be smarter than other teams in order to win - know what bets to make and what bets not to. The Astros made some smart bets on Verlander, Reddick, and McCann, which pushed them over the top to a title. The Cubs did the same with Lester, Zobrist, Fowler, Chapman, etc - and that enabled them to win a title.

Fortunately, teams like the Cubs and Dodgers are better able to absorb mistakes. We aren't in that category. And if we sign Arietta, and he continues to trend downward, maybe that'll prevent us from making that move(s) in 18, 19, or 20 that will put us over the top.

[Kerb Hohl]

The question is whether their production justifies their value - which is what you're getting at, I think - and the issue is how big is the gap between their salary relative to their peers and their actual on-field production. And I submit that the gap between those two factors was waaaaaaaaaaaaaay too large in the case of Suppan, Wolf, and Garza. Lohse was solid his first couple seasons here, but was crap during the final year of his contract.

To me, it is salary in the mix of what you already have. Paying Jake Arrieta $25 million the next 2 seasons easily fits in the payroll and probably will in years 3 and 4. Maybe he's only a $15 million pitcher, but right now is a great time where this fits.

If Mark wants to ramp up payroll to $110-125 million, the money is there to bring one of these guys in.

I reject the premise that we're just kicking this can down the road and will be ultimately forced to invest in a crappy contract in two years. We have to be smarter than other teams in order to win - know what bets to make and what bets not to. The Astros made some smart bets on Verlander, Reddick, and McCann, which pushed them over the top to a title. The Cubs did the same with Lester, Zobrist, Fowler, Chapman, etc - and that enabled them to win a title.

Well, Zobrist, Lester, (probably) Mccann, Heyward are all bad contracts now. The Giants won a bunch of World Series and were saddled with some bad contracts after.

The Cubs and Astros made those signings because they had a bunch of pre-arbitration players, just as the Brewers do. The Brewers have a $30-40 million cushion right now for the next few years because of guys like Shaw, Knebel, Anderson, Davies, etc. getting less than they should. The Astros made those signings before their crop of stars hits free agency. They knew that they could overpay those guys and it wouldn't affect them too much in 3 years when they have to decide whether it's worth going to a $250 million payroll to keep the majority of their young studs.

So sign Arrieta (for a short number of years). You try to win in this next 3-4 year window with these guys. Nobody in the Shaw/Nelson/Knebel group probably warrants a second, giant contract with the Brewers (they'd be able to afford it). Now in 2021 you have a ton of money to spend to surround Brinson, Hader, Arcia, etc.

It's all about the contract in the context of your payroll.

Yes, Arrieta will almost assuredly not be a $25 million/year pitcher. I just think if Attanasio has $40 million left to spend on the roster you can do much better. You're gonna just let a bunch of AAAA guys fill the bottom of the rotation the next few years and not spend the money? I'll leave it up to them as there could be a crunch in 2020/2021 if things blow up, but in my opinion, who cares in that case? That means the rest of the roster tanked anyways, so I don't care about Arrieta's contract being an albatross.

[MickeyDavis]

Today is the day major-league clubs must add eligible minor-league players to their 40-man roster to avoid exposing them to other teams in the Rule 5 draft at the winter meetings.

The Milwaukee Brewers have five openings on their 40-man roster unless they remove a player or players to create extra space. Players who must be protected basically are high school draft picks and international signings from 2013 as well as college draft picks from 2014.

The Brewers have two players who are locks to be protected – middle infielder Mauricio Dubon and right-hander Freddy Peralta – both acquired via trades.

Dubon, 23, was part of the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg trade with Boston at the 2017 winter meetings. He split the 2017 season between Class AA Biloxi and Class AAA Colorado Springs, batting .274 with a .330 on-base percentage, .382 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, eight homers, 57 RBI and 38 stolen bases in 129 games.

Peralta, 21, was one of three 18-year-old pitchers acquired from Seattle at the 2015 winter meetings in a trade for first baseman Adam Lind. He had a breakthrough season at advanced Class A Carolina and Biloxi, going 3-8 with a 2.63 ERA in 25 games (19 starts), with 169 strikeouts in 120 innings and a .178 opponents batting average.

Two players with a good chance of being added to the 40-man roster are right-hander Marcos Diplan and catcher Jacob Nottingham, also added to the organization via trades. Diplan, 21, scuffled at Carolina (7-8, 5.23 ERA in 26 games) and it would be a big jump to the majors – Rule 5 picks must be kept at the top level for a full season – but has a good arm.

The Brewers saw right-hander Miguel Diaz plucked away from the Class A level in the 2017 Rule 5 draft by the rebuilding San Diego Padres, so there is precedent for taking a young, promising arm.

Nottingham, 22, acquired from Oakland in a February 2016 trade for slugger Khris Davis, struggled at Biloxi, batting .209 with a .695 OPS, nine home runs and 48 RBI. It would not be easy to keep a catcher in the majors who hasn’t played at the Class AAA level but the Brewers have high hopes for Nottingham and likely will protect him.

Right-hander Devin Williams, 23, also is in his protection year but had Tommy John elbow surgery this year and has not pitched above Class A ball, so the Brewers could choose to leave him off the roster.

Other players who might merit some consideration for protecting include infielder Nate Orf and outfielder Kyle Wren, who have performed well at the Class AAA level and have some versatility.

[MickeyDavis]

In theory I would like Attanasio to "bank" cash the next 2-3 years and then when the time is right, IF the time is right, he can up the payroll to $125 million or so to "go for it" for 2-3 years.

[Kerb Hohl]

In theory I would like Attanasio to "bank" cash the next 2-3 years and then when the time is right, IF the time is right, he can up the payroll to $125 million or so to "go for it" for 2-3 years.

Yeah, in theory that's best.

I am totally guessing but I think he'll go $100 this year, then $110, $115, $120, $120, $120. That type of progression. He maxed out at $110 a few years ago and everyone's payroll has increased leaguewide.

If in theory he signed Arrieta, we'd still have room most years under that progression that I'm speaking of and I'd bet that if the team is really on the cusp 3 years from now, he'd go up to $130 to get something done. Total guess, though.

[M-C-G]

CC on a two year deal would be good.


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[MVP2110]

Wouldn't mind Arrieta on a deal of four years or less. I much prefer him to Darvish. Darvish scares me

[Iheartfootball]

If the sign Arrieta it screams of a Antanasio move based on history. I trust Stearns to make the right baseball decision. So far that's what he's been doing.

[Kerb Hohl]

Look, I'll give the same cop out that I don't really like any of these pitchers at the price they're at. But as twirly said, we didn't tank so here we are. If we stand pat and sign 2 decent relievers, we still likely will win 83 games or something with an $80 million payroll and not a ton of elite (Astros-esque) prospects ready to come up. So then what do we do? We're right back where we are this year with everyone a year older and the older prime guys (Shaw/Knebel/Braun/Thames/Anderson/Nelson) all getting a year older and more expensive.

Is Arrieta the guy that pushes the team over the top? Probably not, but it's a gamble that he either randomly pulls back near-ace ability or he at least gets you into the playoffs where you have a shot.

I hate to say "win now" but I think the best way forward is to spend in free agency, try to have a good team for the next decade with the good minors depth, and strike at the best possible time. Tanking isn't really an option anymore and I don't see a way of shuffling guys around in trades that suddenly turns us into a 95 win team. Sign some guys and pray that Hader, Brinson, Phillips pan out and Santana, Woodruff, Arcia improve.

No x1000 to trading prospects away for shorter rentals. Would be fine with a big money free agent, though.

[trwi7]

85 win season was the worst thing that could've happened to this franchise.

[MVP2110]

85 win season was the worst thing that could've happened to this franchise.

Good thing they won 86

[coolhandluke121]

85 win season was the worst thing that could've happened to this franchise.

I have to imagine your hat wasn't too happy about it either.