2025 Brewers Minors/Prospects thread - Andrew Fischer - FRP

Post #241 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Sep 13, 2022 11:32 pm

Chourio in the lineup at AA and batting 3rd. Looking forward to watching him play.

Post #242 » by **ReasonablySober** » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:23 am

Read on Twitter

Incredible.

Matches Malone · Post #243 » by **Matches Malone** » Wed Sep 14, 2022 12:29 am

LUKE23 · Post #244 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:16 pm

Man, the AAA guys pretty much all ended the season on a tear. It's going to be interesting to see how the OF shakes out. I believe long-term Frelick and Chourio are locks, so that leaves one of Mitchell/Wiemer/Ruiz as a regular. I'm kind of hoping it's Wiemer given his power and cannon arm.

Turang will be up next year, and I don't think Black is far off if he continues to hit. Quero is probably 2024. Pretty bullish on the Brewers offensive future, but will be worried about the pitching once they trade Burnes, which I feel like is inevitable. Maybe they restock it well through that trade, who knows.

Post #245 » by **MickeyDavis** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:13 pm

I'd like to curb my enthusiasm, lots of top prospects don't pan out in the bigs. But the way these guys have been raking gives me some hope that at least some of them will make it and hopefully one or two will be allstars. We will definitely end up trading some bats for some pitching. It appears we didn't even have a conversation with Burnes' agent about an extension. Haven't heard anything about Woody. Our rotation:

Burnes: FA after 2024
Woodruff: FA after 2024
Lauer: FA after 2024
Peralta: FA after 2026 (team options for 2025 and 2026)
Ashby: FA after 2029 (team options for 2028 and 2029)

leroyjw10 · Post #246 » by **leroyjw10** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:54 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Man, the AAA guys pretty much all ended the season on a tear. It's going to be interesting to see how the OF shakes out. I believe long-term Frelick and Chourio are locks, so that leaves one of Mitchell/Wiemer/Ruiz as a regular. I'm kind of hoping it's Wiemer given his power and cannon arm.

Turang will be up next year, and I don't think Black is far off if he continues to hit. Quero is probably 2024. Pretty bullish on the Brewers offensive future, but will be worried about the pitching once they trade Burnes, which I feel like is inevitable. Maybe they restock it well through that trade, who knows.

What I'd like to see within the next two years is an outfield of Frelick, Chourio and Wiemer with Yelich at DH ... assuming he can't be moved). Frelick feels like the prototypical leadoff guy (high on-base %, speed, etc.), Chourio is a future all-star (great hitter and gold glove defense) and Wiemer was made for RF (big bat and big arm).

I could see Adames moving to 3B, Turang taking over at SS and Urias moving to 2B next year. Let Kolten walk (MLB-worst 14 errors at 2B), trade Hiura for some pitching/catching, and ride Jace as our super-utility man. Finally, I'd love to see them invest this offseason in a catcher. Watching Narvaez and Caratini is getting real old and I sense Quero is still a few years away.

LUKE23 · Post #247 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:57 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:I'd like to curb my enthusiasm, lots of top prospects don't pan out in the bigs. But the way these guys have been raking gives me some hope that at least some of them will make it and hopefully one or two will be allstars. We will definitely end up trading some bats for some pitching. It appears we didn't even have a conversation with Burnes' agent about an extension. Haven't heard anything about Woody. Our rotation:

Burnes: FA after 2024
Woodruff: FA after 2024
Lauer: FA after 2024
Peralta: FA after 2026 (team options for 2025 and 2026)
Ashby: FA after 2029 (team options for 2028 and 2029)

I think they trade Burnes this offseason, keep Woodruff, and hope that Gasser is legit and is up at some point next year. Obviously Burnes/Woodruff is a lot more intimidating at the top than without Burnes, but I also think they would get a haul for Burnes which would also include pitching prospects.

To me, you either have to extend Burnes or trade him now. He's your highest value trade chip by a wide margin, and his value will drop every day from day 1 of the 2023 season on.

I do think all things equal their next few drafts will focus on pitching as well.

LUKE23 · Post #248 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:03 pm

leroyjw10 wrote:
What I'd like to see within the next two years is an outfield of Frelick, Chourio and Wiemer with Yelich at DH ... assuming he can't be moved). Frelick feels like the prototypical leadoff guy (high on-base %, speed, etc.), Chourio is a future all-star (great hitter and gold glove defense) and Wiemer was made for RF (big bat and big arm).

I could see Adames moving to 3B, Turang taking over at SS and Urias moving to 2B next year. Let Kolten walk (MLB-worst 14 errors at 2B), trade Hiura for some pitching/catching, and ride Jace as our super-utility man. Finally, I'd love to see them invest this offseason in a catcher. Watching Narvaez and Caratini is getting real old and I sense Quero is still a few years away.

Yeah, I'd agree on that OF trio, has the most upside and good mix. I think Turang is up next year and Wong is gone, Yelich plays more 1B/DH and hopefully they hold onto Hiura given his success against RHP. I could see them keeping Renfroe one more year as well.

I know some of these guys weren't terrible all year but don't want to have to watch McCutchen, Wong, Brosseau, Peterson, etc. next year. Need more upside in the order.

Post #249 » by **MickeyDavis** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:45 pm

Renfroe has one more year until he's a FA. He'll be back. Cutch hasn't been terrible but we need to make room for the youngins. It's going to be awhile before Yelich is tradable. Six more years on his deal. Seventh is a mutual option.

DanoMac · Post #250 » by **DanoMac** » Thu Sep 15, 2022 10:30 pm

The earliest I'm trading Burnes is after next season. Pitchers like him don't grow on trees, go for it with a loaded staff 1 more year.

Who knows, maybe Mark surprises us and goes in on a 2 or 3 year splash for Verlander or something.

Ron Swanson · Post #251 » by **Ron Swanson** » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:20 pm

Yeah, is it really gonna depreciate Burnes value that much if you wait an extra year? Would still need to shuffle the lineup and figure out the bullpen, but it's not like the guys for sure leaving this offseason were providing you much anyways. Still willing to give Keston some more time to figure out the strikeout stuff. Don't think he's ever gonna be a hit-for-average guy but the power numbers (30+ HR pace over 140-games) were at least there this year.

LUKE23 · Post #252 » by **LUKE23** » Fri Sep 16, 2022 8:29 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:Yeah, is it really gonna depreciate Burnes value that much if you wait an extra year? Would still need to shuffle the lineup and figure out the bullpen, but it's not like the guys for sure leaving this offseason were providing you much anyways. Still willing to give Keston some more time to figure out the strikeout stuff. Don't think he's ever gonna be a hit-for-average guy but the power numbers (30+ HR pace over 140-games) were at least there this year.

I would think yes, it would. If we are going to move him I'd do it this offseason.

Agree with Hiura, and I'd also keep Renfroe one more year. Tellez as well assuming he's not crazy $$. McCutchen, Wong, Peterson, and Brosseau can go.

Frelick/Turang for sure up, Ruiz/Feliciano probably up. Hopefully Yelich is more like the end of the season and Mitchell improves. I feel like they should have a pretty good lineup against RHP next year.

Post #253 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:22 pm

ESPN's #1 breakout prospect.

1. Jackson Chourio, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Preseason Prospect Grade: 45 FV, breakout pick

I had high expectations for Chourio, grading him as a 45 FV (i.e. ranked between 150 and 250 overall) as a player that was just 17 years old with only 45 games of professional experience, all in the lower level of the minors (the Dominican Summer League). I explained this in his preseason report by naming him one of my breakout picks and added that I would round up on him because he's exactly the kind of player teams are proactively trying to get included in deals before they have breakout seasons in Low-A.

What happened was outside of what I could've expected, as he torched Low-A and barely slowed down in High-A at 18 years old the entire season. More importantly, he posted the kind of twitch and high-end exit velocities that, in combination with his tools and performance, harkens back to the talent-level of Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and Yoan Moncada when they were teenagers with multiple plus-plus grades. He was eighth on my midseason update, which is a rise that happens once every year or two, along the lines of Juan Soto's and Anthony Volpe's historic breakout seasons.

LUKE23 · Post #254 » by **LUKE23** » Wed Sep 21, 2022 2:39 pm

Two more hits for Frelick last night, a double and a HR. Now slashing .364/.431/.497. Ruiz at .349/.414/.492.

neiLz · Post #255 » by **neiLz** » Wed Sep 21, 2022 3:09 pm

Reading all of the rankings for each teams farm systems and the brewers are ranked like in the high teens in most publications.... how can they be this low with a top 5 overall player, wiemer, frelick, mitchell, etc? they seem to have some really good guys on the brink. is it because they have so many AAA guys ready ?

LUKE23 · Post #256 » by **LUKE23** » Wed Sep 21, 2022 4:02 pm

neiLz wrote:Reading all of the rankings for each teams farm systems and the brewers are ranked like in the high teens in most publications.... how can they be this low with a top 5 overall player, wiemer, frelick, mitchell, etc? they seem to have some really good guys on the brink. is it because they have so many AAA guys ready ?

They don't have any elite pitching at higher levels. I personally think they are top 15 (based on my minimal knowledge), but I understand why they aren't ranked top 10. Either way, doesn't matter a ton. They are going to need Gasser, Misiorowski, Cam Robinson, etc. to be legit though. I expect if they do trade Burnes this offseason they will have a clear top 10 system post trade.

leroyjw10 · Post #257 » by **leroyjw10** » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:23 pm

LUKE23 wrote:Two more hits for Frelick last night, a double and a HR. Now slashing .364/.431/.497. Ruiz at .349/.414/.492.

Starting to find his power, too. After taking forever to hit his first HR, he's got four in the last week.

LUKE23 · Post #258 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:44 pm

leroyjw10 wrote:Starting to find his power, too. After taking forever to hit his first HR, he's got four in the last week.

Yep, 4 in the last 8 games, OPS up to .941.

Ron Swanson · Post #259 » by **Ron Swanson** » Thu Sep 22, 2022 2:56 pm

Yeah, I suppose that would be the argument in favor of trading Burnes/Woodruff sooner rather than later. Replenish the system and get a couple elite pitching prospects that line up better with your position player studs. Pitching's just so volatile and unpredictable though. Even generational prospects often don't pan out. Hard to predict if you're ever going to have this kind of elite rotation again, so I'd still opt to try it one more season with this staff and a patchwork offense. We've seen with teams like the Angels where you can literally have two of the greatest talents ever, and it doesn't matter without great pitching.

LUKE23 · Post #260 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Sep 22, 2022 4:17 pm

Ron Swanson wrote:Yeah, I suppose that would be the argument in favor of trading Burnes/Woodruff sooner rather than later. Replenish the system and get a couple elite pitching prospects that line up better with your position player studs. Pitching's just so volatile and unpredictable though. Even generational prospects often don't pan out. Hard to predict if you're ever going to have this kind of elite rotation again, so I'd still opt to try it one more season with this staff and a patchwork offense. We've seen with teams like the Angels where you can literally have two of the greatest talents ever, and it doesn't matter without great pitching.

I feel like if they are going to keep Burnes another year, you also need to spend on a bat and really go for it. The primary issue is that the Brewers are now coming off a down year attendance-wise and Mark A also just put some of his money in a soccer club. I just don't think they are going to expand payroll beyond where it has been to do that.

There is definitely an argument to be made for a full reset - trade Burnes/Adames/etc. and really load the farm system, especially with a lot of bats on the cusp of MLB, but I don't think they do that either. I feel like it's going to be an "in between" type rebuild.