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[MickeyDavis]

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[ReasonablySober]

Freddy Peralta leads ESPN's Cy Young predictor. In case you were wondering how that's calculated, here's the explanation.

CYP: In The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers -- co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race," as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).

VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship.

Obviously love Freddy, but this is really, really dumb.

[MVP2110]

Freddy Peralta leads ESPN's Cy Young predictor. In case you were wondering how that's calculated, here's the explanation.

CYP: In The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers -- co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race," as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).

VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship.

Obviously love Freddy, but this is really, really dumb.

I guess if you compare to how past Cy Youngs were picked I can see the logic. Freddy is the best pitcher on the best team and leads the league in wins. But this isn't 1985 anymore so he isnt going to win and shouldn't win

[coolhandluke121]

Freddy Peralta leads ESPN's Cy Young predictor. In case you were wondering how that's calculated, here's the explanation.

CYP: In The Neyer/James Guide To Pitchers -- co-authored by Bill James and ESPN.com's Rob Neyer presents a method, based on past results, to predict Cy Young balloting. This page provides an in-season snapshot of the Cy Young "race," as figured by the following formula: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below).

VB: Victory Bonus is a 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division championship.

Obviously love Freddy, but this is really, really dumb.

I guess if you compare to how past Cy Youngs were picked I can see the logic. Freddy is the best pitcher on the best team and leads the league in wins. But this isn't 1985 anymore so he isnt going to win and shouldn't win

Yeah, sounds like they included data from too far back. Freddy was on his way to potentially having enough of a narrative argument to pass Skenes before the implosion in Texas, but that's out the window now.

[MickeyDavis]

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[Thunder Muscle]

What are we thinking for playoff roster projection….?

Locks:
9 - Contreras, Vaughn, Turang, Ortiz, Durbin, Chourio, Perkins, Frelick, Yelich

3 - Jansen, Monasterio, Collins

3 (SP) - Peralta, Woodruff, Priester
6 (RP) - Uribe, Miz, Ashby, Mears, Koenig, Anderson

Remaining 5 Spots…
Bauers or Hoskins. Maybe both?
3-4 of Myers, Zastryzny, Fedde, Patrick, Megill (lock if healthy), Quintana

Hall I assume will be injured yet. Don’t see them trusting Payamps. Gasser not going to make it if does not pitch in regular season I don’t feel.

Lockridge a sleeper for pinch running and/or defense?

My predictions on 26:
13 - Contreras, Vaughn, Turang, Ortiz, Durbin, Chourio, Perkins, Frelick, Yelich, Jansen, Monasterio, Collins, Bauers

4 (SP) - Peralta, Priester, Quintana, Patrick
8 (RP) - Uribe, Miz, Ashby, Mears, Koenig, Anderson, Megill, Hall

Last spot think will be Hoskins if play Cubs or another pitcher, maybe Tobias Myers.

[coolhandluke121]

The NLDS includes at most 5 games in 8 days. The only consecutive games will be games 3 and 4 on the road. I doubt they keep 13 pitchers, and I think they would have strongly considered just 11 if Woodruff had stayed healthy. 12 is my guess, but 11 might be on the table. The starters for games 1 and 2 will have 4 days rest, respectively, before games 4 and 5.

Don't forget that the 3-batter rule still applies, so it's not easy to manipulate pitching match-ups despite the extra days off. It's much easier to manipulate match-ups by having extra PH's, and I expect Bauers and Hoskins to make the roster for precisely that reason. One power LHB PH and one power RHB PH for those times when you desperately need a long ball threat.

It doesn't make much sense to try to pick all the pitchers until you know who they're playing. In particular, I think it's likely that they would keep more LHPs for a series against the Padres than against the Cubs.

[coolhandluke121]

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I don't think it's really a "do with it what you want" stat. It's pretty clear that you can generate a lot of runs without a lot of home runs because you can string together a lot of hits, walks, and/or steals.

All the various articles talking about how teams that don't hit homers don't usually win in the playoffs completely miss the point. It's probably just because those are teams that don't score a lot in general, not specifically because they don't hit a lot of homers. But the Brewers were THIRD in runs scored in all of baseball (and SECOND in team e.r.a. as well, which is actually a friggin' insane combo).

If any of the clown wannabe data analysts want to show that teams who score a lot of runs without a lot of home runs consistently can't maintain that in the playoffs, I'm all ears, but the lack of homers alone is way too easy to conflate with a lack of offense in general. The fact is that historical data is all but useless because there have been so few teams this century that scored like the Brewers did while having below average power.

Edit: I had the runs rank and e.r.a. rank backwards.

[BUCKnation]

I was thinking about this even before the bad vibes of the latter half of this week, so I’m not trying to say the season is over or anything, but what is the outlook next season for the roster. I have a harder time following the contracts of baseball.

Obviously Peralta could be traded, Woodruff is a huge question mark and Rhys is probably gone, but who else have potential opt outs or deals ending?

Any of the top prospects have a realistic shot at making the team next year?

[MickeyDavis]

I was thinking about this even before the bad vibes of the latter half of this week, so I’m not trying to say the season is over or anything, but what is the outlook next season for the roster. I have a harder time following the contracts of baseball.

Obviously Peralta could be traded, Woodruff is a huge question mark and Rhys is probably gone, but who else have potential opt outs or deals ending?

Any of the top prospects have a realistic shot at making the team next year?

Peralta is either traded over the winter or at the deadline if we're out of it. Otherwise he walks in a year. Woodruff has a $20 million mutual option, which the team will decline. Then we owe him a $10 million buyout. The question is how much more will he want? Hoskins is gone ($18 million mutual buyout). Quintana is gone ($15 million mutual option). Maybe brought back cheap. Jansen is gone ($12 million mutual option). Everyone else is in arby or signed beyond next season.

[BUCKnation]

I was thinking about this even before the bad vibes of the latter half of this week, so I’m not trying to say the season is over or anything, but what is the outlook next season for the roster. I have a harder time following the contracts of baseball.

Obviously Peralta could be traded, Woodruff is a huge question mark and Rhys is probably gone, but who else have potential opt outs or deals ending?

Any of the top prospects have a realistic shot at making the team next year?

Peralta is either traded over the winter or at the deadline if we're out of it. Otherwise he walks in a year. Woodruff has a $20 million mutual option, which the team will decline. Then we owe him a $10 million buyout. The question is how much more will he want? Hoskins is gone ($18 million mutual buyout). Quintana is gone ($15 million mutual option). Maybe brought back cheap. Jansen is gone ($12 million mutual option). Everyone else is in arby or signed beyond next season.

Thanks, that's basically what I expected

[coolhandluke121]

Peralta is either traded over the winter or at the deadline if we're out of it. Otherwise he walks in a year. Woodruff has a $20 million mutual option, which the team will decline. Then we owe him a $10 million buyout. The question is how much more will he want? Hoskins is gone ($18 million mutual buyout). Quintana is gone ($15 million mutual option). Maybe brought back cheap. Jansen is gone ($12 million mutual option). Everyone else is in arby or signed beyond next season.

Thanks, that's basically what I expected

MD misspoke. Hoskins has an $18m mutual option with a $4m buyout, not an $18m mutual buyout, so the Brewers will pay him $4m to go away. Quintana gets $2m in a buyout, and the Brewers might pay him more to return. Jansen has a $500k buyout.

None of those mutual options has a chance of being picked up, but I think the Brewers will gladly pay Woodruff a net value of $10m to return if it's true that the lat injury has nothing to do with his injured shoulder. They guaranteed him $5m this year and $10m next year even with the very real risk that he would never pitch in the majors again, so an additional $10m to pick up that option is nothing for a pitcher of that caliber. That's exactly why they included that option in the contract in the first place, in case he had a good year like he did. And he won't probably won't opt out, because I doubt he can get $20m on the open market. They might agree to tear up the old contract and start a new one from scratch though, provided that it's fair to both sides in comparison to the current contract. They did that with Wade Miley a few years ago too.

I really, truly hope that they sell high on Peralta. Patrick, Henderson, Misiorowski, Priester, Ashby, Hall, Gasser, and Myers all should get to audition for a spot in the rotation, and Woodruff is probably back. They'll also add or keep a Quintana-level vet for stability, as always.

Garrett Mitchell is the main guy to watch IMO, despite his injury history. Collins and Perkins have had some great moments, but I'm not sold on them as long-term core pieces. Mitchell has much more upside than them, and could have a few Carlos Gomez level years in his prime.

I don't really want Yelich in LF anymore, leaving room for Frelick, Chourio, Mitchell, Collins, and Perkins in the OF. Yelich doesn't get instinctive breaks on the ball and his arm is a noodle. He was already being benched for defensive replacements a few years ago, and rightfully so. His pride made him re-dedicate himself to defense for a few years, but that only helps so much against age.

[MickeyDavis]

Yup Hoskins is an option.

[Thunder Muscle]

Peralta is either traded over the winter or at the deadline if we're out of it. Otherwise he walks in a year. Woodruff has a $20 million mutual option, which the team will decline. Then we owe him a $10 million buyout. The question is how much more will he want? Hoskins is gone ($18 million mutual buyout). Quintana is gone ($15 million mutual option). Maybe brought back cheap. Jansen is gone ($12 million mutual option). Everyone else is in arby or signed beyond next season.

Thanks, that's basically what I expected

MD misspoke. Hoskins has an $18m mutual option with a $4m buyout, not an $18m mutual buyout, so the Brewers will pay him $4m to go away. Quintana gets $2m in a buyout, and the Brewers might pay him more to return. Jansen has a $500k buyout.

None of those mutual options has a chance of being picked up, but I think the Brewers will gladly pay Woodruff a net value of $10m to return if it's true that the lat injury has nothing to do with his injured shoulder. They guaranteed him $5m this year and $10m next year even with the very real risk that he would never pitch in the majors again, so an additional $10m to pick up that option is nothing for a pitcher of that caliber. That's exactly why they included that option in the contract in the first place, in case he had a good year like he did. And he won't probably won't opt out, because I doubt he can get $20m on the open market. They might agree to tear up the old contract and start a new one from scratch though, provided that it's fair to both sides in comparison to the current contract. They did that with Wade Miley a few years ago too.

I really, truly hope that they sell high on Peralta. Patrick, Henderson, Misiorowski, Priester, Ashby, Hall, Gasser, and Myers all should get to audition for a spot in the rotation, and Woodruff is probably back. They'll also add or keep a Quintana-level vet for stability, as always.

Garrett Mitchell is the main guy to watch IMO, despite his injury history. Collins and Perkins have had some great moments, but I'm not sold on them as long-term core pieces. Mitchell has much more upside than them, and could have a few Carlos Gomez level years in his prime.

I don't really want Yelich in LF anymore, leaving room for Frelick, Chourio, Mitchell, Collins, and Perkins in the OF. Yelich doesn't get instinctive breaks on the ball and his arm is a noodle. He was already being benched for defensive replacements a few years ago, and rightfully so. His pride made him re-dedicate himself to defense for a few years, but that only helps so much against age.

I feel like injuries always sort the OF logjam up, but I do think 1 of Collins or Perkins may be moved. Perkins defense is elite but pretty much only has use vs lefties at the plate and even then is mediocre. Collins is tough to gauge. Feel like if take out the hot streak, he struggled. But can Mitchell be trusted to have a season long role? Feel like Murph likes Lockridge too so he is in the mix.

Woodruff will be interesting. Its hard to gauge without knowing the extent of his injury. I feel like they come to some agreement or just pay the 20M.

Peralta I feel sticks and will be determined where they are in July. If average, may be moved. If in it, likely ride it out. Assume he’d fetch a 1st round comp pick?

[coolhandluke121]

I feel like injuries always sort the OF logjam up, but I do think 1 of Collins or Perkins may be moved.

You're probably right, but unless Mitchell is expected to be healthy, I'd rather keep both of them. Lockridge is a AAAA guy and I'm pretty sure that he has options left; I don't expect him to be on the roster unless there are injuries.

Peralta I feel sticks and will be determined where they are in July.

Barf. They need to sell high. I doubt that he ever has such a good season again. He was lucky with defense and a somewhat low HR:Fly-Ball rate. He still walks a lot of hitters and has high pitch counts. His innings per start are also pretty mediocre for an "ace." I think that he's generally a 2-3 WAR pitcher, and that's if he's healthy all year. I wouldn't count on him being worth a comp pick, and unless he's not worth much in a trade, I'd rather give the young guys a chance.

I'd pick up Woodruff's option because he's a better pitcher, even with the injury risk, and because he's probably not worth much in a trade anyway.

[MickeyDavis]

I'm still holding out hope that Mitchell can stay healthy for a season. I think he'll be good. We may never know.

[MickeyDavis]

Good interview with Murph

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2025/10/16/pat-murphy-milwaukee-brewers-manager/86717928007/

Murphy was planning to follow Greg to the Cubs but had an interview with the Brewers first

“I remember sitting there for two hours with all these (expletive) nerds in the room," Murphy says. “And they were an hour late to begin with. I think they were interviewing Don Mattingly or something. I mean, I didn’t even get a drink or a cracker. I’m like 'guys, what the (expletive)? What the (expletive) do you want me to tell you. You already know me, right?'

“I’ve been here eight (expletive) years, I need an answer pretty soon."

[Thunder Muscle]

Good interview with Murph

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2025/10/16/pat-murphy-milwaukee-brewers-manager/86717928007/

Murphy was planning to follow Greg to the Cubs but had an interview with the Brewers first

“I remember sitting there for two hours with all these (expletive) nerds in the room," Murphy says. “And they were an hour late to begin with. I think they were interviewing Don Mattingly or something. I mean, I didn’t even get a drink or a cracker. I’m like 'guys, what the (expletive)? What the (expletive) do you want me to tell you. You already know me, right?'

“I’ve been here eight (expletive) years, I need an answer pretty soon."

Wow. Alot of this is new to me. What a wild run it has been for him.

[jakecronus8]

Torn on Peralta. If the idea is high ceiling quality over quantity prospect capital coming back I'm all for it. If the idea is lower ceiling higher basement "major league ready" guys like we got for Burnes (Ortiz/Hall ) just hang onto him and get a comp pick back. You should be able to compete for the division again next year.

[Thunder Muscle]

What are some free agents that we should target that would improve the offense? SS looked pretty bleak after Bo Bichette who is likely not attainable and assume we would be more interested in a 1-2 year deal with Made getting closer.