2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[trwi7]

but you yourself have called this team a regression candidate.

Right, which means don't go out and overpay **** 30+ year old free agents for 4 years.

[Kerb Hohl]

but you yourself have called this team a regression candidate.

Right, which means don't go out and overpay **** 30+ year old free agents for 4 years.

OK, so instead go out and win 75-80 games with a roster that has a bunch of guys in their mid/late prime, not draft near the top of the draft, and ...?

I'm not advocating for those specific players. Those guys could definitely have a Garza trajectory, which isn't really even the end of the world. I'm just wondering where else you go from here? I hope that Stearns can swing some trades for really good/elite players, but that probably comes at the cost of the future.

It's a Bucks-like situation in some ways from 10 years ago, but the difference is that the Brewers have a good, cheap/young pipeline waiting 2-3 years from now outside of what they already have coming up and they won't be capping themselves out with these moves like the Bucks did. Will they win the World Series with these moves? Not incredibly likely, but it keeps them in the division mix.

[trwi7]

OK, so instead go out and win 75-80 games with a roster that has a bunch of guys in their mid/late prime, not draft near the top of the draft, and ...?

Really, after everything I've posted the last two years this is what you think I want them to do?

[Kerb Hohl]

OK, so instead go out and win 75-80 games with a roster that has a bunch of guys in their mid/late prime, not draft near the top of the draft, and ...?

Really, after everything I've posted the last two years this is what you think I want them to do?

You want them to tank, I know. Obviously it's not going to happen from here. Mark won't be sold on 2022 as the target date to compete again.

Maybe they go and overpay some short-term bullpen help, but they have a window to spend is all I'm saying.

[trwi7]

Obviously it's not going to happen from here. Mark won't be sold on 2022 as the target date to compete again.

And that's why this season was terrible.

[Kerb Hohl]

Obviously it's not going to happen from here. Mark won't be sold on 2022 as the target date to compete again.

And that's why this season was terrible.

OK, so save for tanking (say Mark has told you that you can't and you are a GM), tell me how you get the Brewers into the playoffs in the next 4 years.

I'd of course have a slew of trades to make that I have no idea would be available, but they can also spend a bit of short-ish term money to try to succeed now and they still should have a pipeline of cheaper talent coming in several years from now and don't have much to worry about resigning a few years from now. That's all I'm saying.

[trwi7]

If Mark tells me I can't tank I tell him to back the **** off, I'll do what I want and if he doesn't like it, he can fire me, pay me the rest of my salary and go hire a puppet GM.

[Kerb Hohl]

If Mark tells me I can't tank I tell him to back the **** off, I'll do what I want and if he doesn't like it, he can fire me, pay me the rest of my salary and go hire a puppet GM.

OK. So I have no idea why you watch this team. I gave up paying much attention other than a passing game or two for the Bucks in about 2010-2011 because they wouldn't tank 2003-2010 and signed themselves into **** hell after FTD.

Saved me a lot of time and stress in my life. I don't have a ton of time to watch the Brewers but they're still relatively well-run so I still claim fandom and follow a lot.

Just a suggestion.

[trwi7]

I can like a team and hate the way they're rebuilding.

[Kerb Hohl]

I can like a team and hate the way they're rebuilding.

The funny thing, though, is that you've told me I'm an idiot for suggesting that in the context of current payroll, overpaying some relievers or maybe Cobb/Lynn given that they aren't tanking is not really that huge of a risk. I'm just asking what better option you have if Mark is not willing to let his GM trade away every valuable player with the target of 2022-2023 (at best). And you have not provided one...

[coolhandluke121]

Obviously it's not going to happen from here. Mark won't be sold on 2022 as the target date to compete again.

And that's why this season was terrible.

It was a good year. They had a legit chance to win the division all the way until the Cubs series, and in baseball that means a lot. It's not like the Bucks getting an 8th seed. It's where they go from here that could cause problems, but that means the decisions they made after the season were bad, not the season itself. A lot of these guys are pretty decent players and they've developed a lot of assets. Last year, with Villar, Guerra, Braun, Lucroy, and a bunch of halfway decent relievers near the end of their prime leading the way, was bad. There was no future winning ~75 games with those guys. This year was very different in terms of the number of good young contributors under team control and the likelihood of many of them being able to sustain their success based on prior performance and pedigree.

I mostly agree with you on selling high and continuing to rebuild as the most likely way to maximize wins over the next, say, 15 years. But that doesn't make this a bad year. They probably want a certain amount of payroll on their books for complicated accounting reasons and tax purposes, and there's no harm at all in spending some money to improve an 86-win team where nearly every key performer is still theoretically in his prime or younger as long as they stick to 1 or 2 year deals.

[trwi7]

I'm just asking what better option you have if Mark is not willing to let his GM trade away every valuable player with the target of 2022-2023 (at best). And you have not provided one...

And I'm saying if Mark isn't letting Stearns do this, it's still a huge problem but it seems that Stearns is doing this willfully, which is disappointing to me.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'm just asking what better option you have if Mark is not willing to let his GM trade away every valuable player with the target of 2022-2023 (at best). And you have not provided one...

And I'm saying if Mark isn't letting Stearns do this, it's still a huge problem but it seems that Stearns is doing this willfully, which is disappointing to me.

You act like there is no downside to tanking. I'd have definitely been on board and celebrated it but they did still have a good rebuild in the meantime.

Even well-run tanking efforts can cause a decade or more of futility if a few players fail. I don't blame Mark if he doesn't want that.

Especially where we are, now, 2 years into Stearns with a rebuilding half year out of Melvin before that, I'm not sure they want to start something that has a 5-year schedule.

[trwi7]

This year was very different in terms of the number of good young contributors under team control and the likelihood of many of them being able to sustain their success based on prior performance and pedigree.

EVERYBODY STOP **** SAYING THIS.

Top 15 in plate appearances

Santana (25)
Shaw (27)
Thames (31)
Arcia (23)
Broxton (27)
Perez (26)
Villar (26)
Braun (33)
Pina (30)
Aguilar (27)
Sogard (31)
Bandy (27)
Walker (32)
Vogt (32)
Phillips (23)

Twice as many players over 30 than 25 and under. Nearly everyone in or past their prime.

Pitchers with at least 20 innings

Davies (24)
Nelson (28)
Anderson (29)
Garza (33)
Suter (28)
Knebel (25)
Torres (34)
Barnes (27)
Guerra (32)
Hughes (32)
Peralta (28)
Drake (30)
Hader (23)
Woodruff (24)
Swarzak (32)
Feliz (29)
Jeffress (30)
Scahill (30)
Milone (30)

Four pitchers under 25. Most in or past their prime.

So what are we doing here? We're going to go and sign some pitchers and hope that guys like Anderson, Suter, Hughes will do what they did this year? Re-sign Swarzak and hope he does something he had never done until this year? Hope a 32 year old Guerra bounces back? Hope that Hader goes to the starting rotation and doesn't walk 5 per 9 innings or worse? Hope that Shaw of the 1st half was real and not the 2nd half? Hope that Thames is closer to April and September and not the months in between? Hope that 2016 Villar was real? Hope that Braun doesn't get hurt? Hope that a 30 year Pina is for real? Hope that Walker re-signs and that he doesn't get hurt? Hope Sogard re-signs and doesn't turn back into a pumpkin?

No, you sell these guys, some of them for real value, some for whatever you can get. You don't go out and bring the same team back and add someone like Cobb or Lynn and then hope that all the guys who performed way above their heads this year manage to do it again. If that's the route they go, I probably won't watch next year because it will tell me nothing has really changed in terms of Mark's philosophy.

[coolhandluke121]

Lol, there are literally only like 5 or 6 guys they'll be using a lot next year that are past their prime on both those lists combined. And some of those are only "theoretically" past their prime, having had their best year by far at 30 or shortly thereafter and therefore being legit candidates for a late prime, which is not all that uncommon. Despite the average prime year being 27 or 28, there are plenty of guys who deviate from that and peak later. And the average decline shortly after 27 or 28 isn't that steep.

I don't even disagree with you in principle, but if you can't enjoy a year like the one they just had, there's no reason to watch. You're only hoping to have more years like that in the future, but when having a good year now doesn't interfere with your ability to have those future good years, you should try to enjoy it. If it means they sign a bunch of mediocre players and thus cost themselves a chance to add free agents a few years from now, then by all means complain about that. But if they do that, fault them for that. Don't be mad that they had a good year. They were right in the division race all the way up until the Cubs series ffs.

And the way you seemed mad about getting Walker and Swarzak in the thick of a division race, while giving up basically nothing, makes it hard to take you seriously even when there is a lot of merit to your larger premise. You were a bigger fan of tanking than you were of the Brewers this year.

[M-C-G]

Apparently that 85 win hat was extra salty


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[bizarro]

Lol, there are literally only like 5 or 6 guys they'll be using a lot next year that are past their prime on both those lists combined. And some of those are only "theoretically" past their prime, having had their best year by far at 30 or shortly thereafter and therefore being legit candidates for a late prime, which is not all that uncommon. Despite the average prime year being 27 or 28, there are plenty of guys who deviate from that and peak later. And the average decline shortly after 27 or 28 isn't that steep.

I don't even disagree with you in principle, but if you can't enjoy a year like the one they just had, there's no reason to watch. You're only hoping to have more years like that in the future, but when having a good year now doesn't interfere with your ability to have those future good years, you should try to enjoy it. If it means they sign a bunch of mediocre players and thus cost themselves a chance to add free agents a few years from now, then by all means complain about that. But if they do that, fault them for that. Don't be mad that they had a good year. They were right in the division race all the way up until the Cubs series ffs.

And the way you seemed mad about getting Walker and Swarzak in the thick of a division race, while giving up basically nothing, makes it hard to take you seriously even when there is a lot of merit to your larger premise. You were a bigger fan of tanking than you were of the Brewers this year.

I have to say, Twirlz, CHL is pretty spot-on here. Whether you liked it or not, the Brewers managed to cobble together an extremely entertaining year. They had egregious flaws, yes...but they played hard; they consistently brought young guys up; and they gave up oh so little for an impactful couple transactions to augment their play-off push. I mean, FFS, they missed a play-in game by 1 f'ng game. AND, you're lamenting their roster?!? Guerra was s*** - and the majority here (including you...including myself) were all for trading him last season/off-season. WELL, that didn't work out and he didn't really play anyways. He's a non-factor. They remained relevant after their most dominant pitcher - Nelson - was lost for their most important stretch. They swept the Cubs in Chicago when everyone thought they were done. Why is it so hard to step back and admire what was accomplished - against all odds and while maintaining a pretty damned disciplined approach concerning their trajectory? I just don't get it. There's nothing to get up in arms about. They have immense flexibility and a pool of young talent in the minors. I just don't get it.

[sdn40]

We have the lowest payroll in baseball and people still want to tank ? Maybe Stearns should just go to Walmart next year and pick the roster from people in the parking lot. The tank obsession is irritating on many levels, the most being that people think it should be no problem for professionals who have worked tirelessly for a decade or more to land a job where there are only 30 openings available in the entire world, to just turn off the competitive switch until some random time that could be a decade .... or never comes along. I wonder if the tankers would feel the same way if they owned the team and had to walk into an empty stadium every night ?
I'm sure GM's and coaches and scouts in all sports can't wait to interview and say "I don't suck, we were tanking."
It's well documented that one of the hardest things to change in a locker room is a losing mentality and people want to introduce that feeling on purpose ? I could rant on this for pages but I'll spare you all.
My head hurts every time that word is brought up

[Kerb Hohl]

I have no issues with tanking. It's not telling the guys not to try, it's bringing in a bunch of younger guys to take a look at and not making moves for wins. Just sign scrap heap older guys to fill the roster and see if they accidentally turn into a trade chip. The Padres brought in Weaver/Cahill and the White Sox were trotting Chris Volstad out there late in the season. It's not even actively signing them to lose, you're just bringing them in as a placeholder so you aren't burning service time of a younger player.

Anyways, I have no issue with tanking. The Brewers, I think, somewhat tried to do it last year but Stearns brought in some great under the radar guys that ended up winning them more games than they thought.

I'd be all for tanking, but it's not happening going into year 3 of Stearns, especially since 2015 was kinda torched 1/4 or halfway through. Mark won't allow it, and I understand it.

I'm interested to see what Stearns can do with this. Great moves so far but the Nelson injury and having a slightly larger core of old-ish (in terms of prime) contributors does present a challenge and we're not sure they have elite players.

I'd consider just signing vets to high $, short-ish contracts and maybe even a slightly long deal for pitching. This crop of guys that are due as FAs in 2021/2022 we probably cannot or will not want to bring back. Just keep bringing in younger guys to fill every spot as we go.

[sdn40]

I have no issues with tanking. It's not telling the guys not to try, it's bringing in a bunch of younger guys to take a look at and not making moves for wins.

Not making moves for wins IS the definition of not trying.