2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[WeekapaugGroove]

The Logan signing gives them some insurance if the give Hader a shot in the rotation. I would imagine they give him that shot with a very short leash and if he struggles he goes back to the pen.

Hate to infer too much now because other moves might be coming but the offseason so far looks like a sign they like the pitching prospects that are coming and are just signing stopgaps to hold the fort until they are ready.

I still expect them to move an of (most likely broxton) and maybe do a little prospect consolidation trade. At some point they will need to do that because the list of guys who need to be protected from rule 5 next year is long and will create a 40 man crunch.

[trwi7]

The Brewers’ best position player, and the only one to post a WARP over four, was Travis Shaw. The rest of the offense was bolstered by lucky streaks, old guys with big platoon splits (which even Shaw can be accused of) and the defensively inept (Domingo Santana). It was a balanced offense. While it was good, last season, improving it in the short term, will be very difficult. It will be even more difficult because the Brewers were pretty lucky last season.

Not everything went right for the Brewers, of course. The bullpen struggled early while Neftali Feliz was installed as closer, Jimmy Nelson suffered a terrible injury and may never return to form, and Chase Anderson missed a good chunk of time, but generally speaking the Brewers, GM David Stearns, and Manager Craig Counsell were both masterful and extremely lucky in managing injuries, streaks and slumps. Thames got them off to a gangbusters start, but when he stopped being able to hit same-side pitching, Jesus Aguilar was there to at least keep the position average. Jonathan Villar was fixed by a ridiculous streak from Eric Sogard, who was later fixed by the acquisition of Neil Walker. Jett Bandy started strong, Stephen Vogt finished strong, Manny Pina was at least fine and often quite good most of the rest of the time. Even Hernan Perez, overused down the stretch, was strategically good earlier in small doses. Timing is everything, and on offense, the Brewers enjoyed some excellent timing.

All of this luck resulted in a very good, but not quite playoff record, and that’s great, but it leaves the team with a tricky mix of high expectations and likely regression. To see any real improvement, they need to add not just good players, but star players. Star players are expensive, and while the Brewer system is well-regarded, it’s most often praised for its depth of talent, not its ceiling. It’s possible that Brett Phillips, who was great down the stretch, turns into a bona fide star, and it’s possible that Lewis Brinson does the same, but it’s unlikely, especially for 2018.

The Brewers would obviously like to compete next season, as all teams would, however doing so will essentially require:
1. A replacement for Nelson (3.89 WARP) in the rotation (expensive)
2. A multi-win upgrade among already good positional players (expensive)
3. Good luck (unlikely)

milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/22/improving-on-good-is-hard/

[coolhandluke121]

The Brewers aren't going to regress. If anything, they'll get better. Imagine if Villar starts hitting and Braun is healthy.

The only reason I expect them to be halfway decent is because I expect them to come up with more surprise moves that pay off. To put it another way, the gm and manager aren't regressing to the mean, so the cohesion and balance of the roster and the way players are used will lead to some over-achievement again. (Yes, I think Counsell is a pretty good manager, though he understandably panicked a little towards the end due to a lack of options.)

That article makes a really good point about how it's hard to upgrade when you have a bunch of ~2 WAR guys. There's not much point to participating in free agency because you can't be confident you're even getting an upgrade unless you sign a bona fide star, but standing pat severely limits your upside. I would be okay with a down year, but I have a feeling plenty of guys will be 2-3 WAR players again; I just don't know which ones. I'm sure they're waiting to see if they can replicate their success before they bet on this group and do something splashy, which is the right move.

[trwi7]

That's article is exactly why I wanted to tank. It's easy to replace 0 WAR guys with 2 WAR guys and assemble a fairly decent team. A lot of GM's can do that, it's not some special skill that only Stearns possesses. The question is, how are you going to get those 6 WAR guys or even a couple 5 WAR guys and then supplement the roster with those 2-3 WAR finds to create a contending team?

You look at our farm system and who is the 5-8 WAR player(s)? Brinson can do it if he reaches his ceiling and stays healthy. Maybe Harrison? Other than that there's just depth, 2-4 WAR guys if things work out.

[Kerb Hohl]

That's article is exactly why I wanted to tank. It's easy to replace 0 WAR guys with 2 WAR guys and assemble a fairly decent team. A lot of GM's can do that, it's not some special skill that only Stearns possesses. The question is, how are you going to get those 6 WAR guys or even a couple 5 WAR guys and then supplement the roster with those 2-3 WAR finds to create a contending team?

You look at our farm system and who is the 5-8 WAR player(s)? Brinson can do it if he reaches his ceiling and stays healthy. Maybe Harrison? Other than that there's just depth, 2-4 WAR guys if things work out.

I agree that tanking could have/should have happened, but I do think there are 2 ways to success:

1. Be the Cardinals. Good minors depth forever. Be solid/good 8 out of 10 seasons and you may win a title just by creating so many chances. Use said minors depth to overpay a few free agents since the rest of the roster is cheap.

2. Kinda goes with 1, but they could also choose the right time to strike and cash in their prospects for a 2-3 year run a la the Royals. Sure, Cain had an elite year or two but that team didn’t routinely have 6+ WAR guys. They chose to cash in some guys for Cueto, Zobrist, Shields, etc.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I agree the brewers need top line tallent and I get the higher you pick the better odds and more bonus money and all that. But its not like they're drawing dead here. Only 4 guys in the top 20 in WAR were top 10 picks so there are other avenues to accomplish that.

It's not easy but the good and lucky gms find a way.

[bizarro]

Well, I come from the angle of: It's clear they aren't going to 'Tank'. That's just not going to happen. AND, I found them entertaining as hell last year. And, the minors are deep and I liked the first go around from Montgomery and co. Maybe we'll see a few guys who outperform expectations. We just don't know. AND, I also know I have infinitely more enjoyment following this team than I do the s***show that is the Bucks and the predictably boring and non-imaginative strategy of the MM/TT duo.

I find the current state of this off-season completely on-par with what I was anticipating and I'm fine with it.

[WeekapaugGroove]

Well, I come from the angle of: It's clear they aren't going to 'Tank'. That's just not going to happen. AND, I found them entertaining as hell last year. And, the minors are deep and I liked the first go around from Montgomery and co. Maybe we'll see a few guys who outperform expectations. We just don't know. AND, I also know I have infinitely more enjoyment following this team than I do the s***show that is the Bucks and the predictably boring and non-imaginative strategy of the MM/TT duo.

I find the current state of this off-season completely on-par with what I was anticipating and I'm fine with it.

Merry Christmas!

This is a good point in the value of enjoying the journey not just a championship. If a chip is all you care about then you'll live most of your sports life disappointed. It was fun seeing some wins and completing until the last week. But even more it was cool seeing the little things like the rookies coming up. knebel throwing smoke. Nelson finally putting it together. Arcia making crazy defensive plays and progressing as a hitter. Santana being healthy and hitting.

[coolhandluke121]

That's article is exactly why I wanted to tank. It's easy to replace 0 WAR guys with 2 WAR guys and assemble a fairly decent team. A lot of GM's can do that, it's not some special skill that only Stearns possesses.

I don't totally agree with that. I mean, yeah it's easy... if you sign a lot of questionable contracts and trade away prospects. But doing it without trading prospects, without more than a handful of prospects you inherited helping much, and without any bad contracts except Braun and Garza, who aren't his fault, is pretty impressive.

Differentiating the potential 2-3 WAR guys on the bargain bin from the career scrubs is a good skill that will continue to come in handy. They do need better players to contend, but the sheer depth of the farm system means some good prospects will probably emerge as great ones, even if you can't predict which ones.

[MVP2110]

That's article is exactly why I wanted to tank. It's easy to replace 0 WAR guys with 2 WAR guys and assemble a fairly decent team. A lot of GM's can do that, it's not some special skill that only Stearns possesses. The question is, how are you going to get those 6 WAR guys or even a couple 5 WAR guys and then supplement the roster with those 2-3 WAR finds to create a contending team?

You look at our farm system and who is the 5-8 WAR player(s)? Brinson can do it if he reaches his ceiling and stays healthy. Maybe Harrison? Other than that there's just depth, 2-4 WAR guys if things work out.

I agree that tanking could have/should have happened, but I do think there are 2 ways to success:

1. Be the Cardinals. Good minors depth forever. Be solid/good 8 out of 10 seasons and you may win a title just by creating so many chances. Use said minors depth to overpay a few free agents since the rest of the roster is cheap.

2. Kinda goes with 1, but they could also choose the right time to strike and cash in their prospects for a 2-3 year run a la the Royals. Sure, Cain had an elite year or two but that team didn’t routinely have 6+ WAR guys. They chose to cash in some guys for Cueto, Zobrist, Shields, etc.

I almost entirely agree with this Perspective. I think consistently having good players and alot of depth can do the trick over having "great" players. Plus star players come from many places, not just high in the draft. There are always guys who aren't thought of very highly that become all stars. So i think the key to the future for the Brewers is making sure that our farm system is always stocked with talent to replace the injuries and attrition that will naturely take place over time.

[mlloyd10]

https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29/royals-need-to-make-a-deal-with-milwaukee/

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:
LHP Danny Duffy
2B/LF Whit Merrifield
RHP Kelvin Herrera

The Kansas City Royals receive:
CF Monte Harrison
RHP Corbin Burnes
2B/SS Isan Diaz
RHP Jordan Yamamoto

[MVP2110]

https://royalsfarmreport.com/2017/12/29/royals-need-to-make-a-deal-with-milwaukee/

The Milwaukee Brewers receive:
LHP Danny Duffy
2B/LF Whit Merrifield
RHP Kelvin Herrera

The Kansas City Royals receive:
CF Monte Harrison
RHP Corbin Burnes
2B/SS Isan Diaz
RHP Jordan Yamamoto

I doubt that is on the table but I would take that in a heartbeat. Locks up our 3 biggest needs. 2 of which would be locked up long term. Giving up Harrison & Burnes & Diaz is tough but is mitigated with Duffy & Merrifield locked up for awhile.

[Gianstoppable]

Tanking in baseball is really risky. Too many guys never make it and you really turn off a fan base after having a couple 100 loss seasons. Trust your scouts and try to stay competitive at the same time.

[trwi7]

Tanking in baseball is really risky. Too many guys never make it and you really turn off a fan base after having a couple 100 loss seasons. Trust your scouts and try to stay competitive at the same time.

The last two World Series champs did a complete teardown.

[crkone]

Read on Twitter

[MickeyDavis]

TH:

Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Jimmy Nelson appeared Tuesday morning on the MLB Network's "Hot Stove" show and was very upbeat about his rehab from shoulder surgery.

"The rehab is going just about as well as it could possibly go, knock on wood," Nelson told show hosts Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds. "It has been a long offseason already but I definitely enjoy the challenge.

"The progress has been impressive, and I'm pretty proud of how far I've come already. I'm just really anxious to start a throwing program and get to spring training."

Nelson suffered a torn labrum in his pitching shoulder when he dislocated it diving back into first base after collecting a hit against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Sept. 8. He later underwent surgery and is expected to miss a significant portion of the first half of the 2018 season.

Nelson is not expected to begin his throwing program until spring training but has been all-in on his rehab, to the point of using a hyperbaric chamber in his recovery. Hyperbaric chambers provide oxygen therapy to promote healing at a pressure higher than the normal atmosphere.

"I researched it a little bit and bought one this offseason," he said. "I'm trying to do whatever I can to heal myself and get back, not only to where I was, but better. People ask, 'Do you think you'll get back to where you were?' Our goal is to get back better to where I was at.

"It's been long days this offseason but it has been paying off so far with how quick my progress has been, and where I'm at now, and how I'm feeling. I spend a couple of hours a day in that thing. It's definitely time consuming but I'm seeing benefits from it."

Nelson, 28, was having a breakthrough season at the time of the injury, going 12-6 with a 3.49 ERA in 29 starts, with 199 strikeouts in 175 innings. He was missed down the stretch as the Brewers fell short of the second NL wild-card berth by one victory, getting eliminated on the penultimate day of the season.

Asked by MLB Network contributor Ken Rosenthal if he thought the Brewers would have made the playoffs had he not been injured, Nelson joked, "Man, you're just pouring that salt in the wound" before saying "for sure."

"It was definitely frustrating; I wish I could have been out there with those guys," Nelson added.

As for how far the team came heading into 2018, Nelson said, "We got along so well. It just jelled really well. ... That's what I'm excited about going into spring training."

The uncertainty of how much time Nelson will miss next season is part of the reason the Brewers have been on the hunt this winter for starting pitching. They have signed former Milwaukee right-hander Yovani Gallardo to a one-year, non-guaranteed contract and free-agent righty Jhoulys Chacin to a two-year, $15.5 million deal.

The Brewers also are expected to announce soon a free-agent deal with left-handed reliever Boone Logan.

[Gianstoppable]

Tanking in baseball is really risky. Too many guys never make it and you really turn off a fan base after having a couple 100 loss seasons. Trust your scouts and try to stay competitive at the same time.

The last two World Series champs did a complete teardown.

Fair enough, but the Astros had 3 straight hundred loss seasons on top of a 92 loss season the following year. You want to lose that bad for 4 straight years to MAYBE have a shot? The Cubs had a much better go at it, they didnt have to lose as much but they also have a massive payroll. You can successfully build a WS caliber team without being a terrible team for a while, you just need a GM who has a clear vision on what he wants to do, which is what I think Stearns is doing. I'm not worried.

[bizarro]

Read on Twitter

BTW, this has since been amended to the tune that the Dodgers will either give cash or a PTBN in exchange for Baker.

[ReasonablySober]

Uh, so the Brewers have interest in Lo Cain for some reason.

[Kerb Hohl]

Uh, so the Brewers have interest in Lo Cain for some reason.

The one way I would be a fan of it is:

-Santana (and maybe Broxton) are dealt for another haul of prospects and/or pitching/infield young players
-Cain's contract is below expected value and short. Cain is obviously a defense-oriented/speed-oriented player. He's already on the back end of a useful age, but if it's like 3/$40, maybe up to 3/$49 (save giving up that draft pick!), then I can buy it.

Though, I guess that does still make you scratch your head on Brinson's place. I'm not sure you want him in a corner.

Double edit, though: Cain has played some RF. I guess you could have Brinson in CF, Cain in RF, and Phillips as the 4th OF that rotates in against most RHP. Braun in left.

I'm not sure if you get full value on that contract with Cain in RF. You'd have a super-defense OF, though. Not necessarily the greatest thing to build in Milwaukee because there's minimal room to run in the corners, but I guess it's something.