2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[Gianstoppable]

Now we have people on bf.net willing to throw Brinson away with Thames to slightly upgrade to Jose Abreu. Jesus Christ, the 86 wins was bad enough just for stupid **** like that alone.

Yeah, I saw that. It would be a ridiculously dumb move on the Brewers part. Abreu is an upgrade, sure. BUT, as you point out, a slight upgrade and then you deal your #1 5-Tool prospect?!?

Thames was not very good after April. Jesus came out of nowhere, who knows what he'll do next year. Our offense was terrible the second half of the year. You'd be giving up 1 prospect for two years of a hitter that good and consistent as Abreu, it's clearly a good value trade. Being the team probably isn't really at a title window without other moves, I don't know if it's worth doing at this time. But the trade values of it would clearly be in MKE's favor. Most deals of this nature have one top level guy like Brinson and 2-3 more with him. I'd guess that CWS would demand more but I'm not surprised MKE fans overvalue prospects.

Keep in mind Brinson has always been hurt too.

No way in hell should the Brewers trade their #1 prospect for a 1st baseman. Id rather move Shaw to 1st and overpay Moustakas

[Kerb Hohl]

Now we have people on bf.net willing to throw Brinson away with Thames to slightly upgrade to Jose Abreu. Jesus Christ, the 86 wins was bad enough just for stupid **** like that alone.

Yeah, I saw that. It would be a ridiculously dumb move on the Brewers part. Abreu is an upgrade, sure. BUT, as you point out, a slight upgrade and then you deal your #1 5-Tool prospect?!?

Thames was not very good after April. Jesus came out of nowhere, who knows what he'll do next year. Our offense was terrible the second half of the year. You'd be giving up 1 prospect for two years of a hitter that good and consistent as Abreu, it's clearly a good value trade. Being the team probably isn't really at a title window without other moves, I don't know if it's worth doing at this time. But the trade values of it would clearly be in MKE's favor. Most deals of this nature have one top level guy like Brinson and 2-3 more with him. I'd guess that CWS would demand more but I'm not surprised MKE fans overvalue prospects.

Keep in mind Brinson has always been hurt too.

I'd ask where do we hang the banner for having Jose Abreu and winning 83 games (without Nelson)?

The Brewers would need to throw a lot more chips on the table in other trades to go for it if they made this trade...and I'm not sure I'd like the outcome of that.

[DingleJerry]

Yeah, I saw that. It would be a ridiculously dumb move on the Brewers part. Abreu is an upgrade, sure. BUT, as you point out, a slight upgrade and then you deal your #1 5-Tool prospect?!?

Thames was not very good after April. Jesus came out of nowhere, who knows what he'll do next year. Our offense was terrible the second half of the year. You'd be giving up 1 prospect for two years of a hitter that good and consistent as Abreu, it's clearly a good value trade. Being the team probably isn't really at a title window without other moves, I don't know if it's worth doing at this time. But the trade values of it would clearly be in MKE's favor. Most deals of this nature have one top level guy like Brinson and 2-3 more with him. I'd guess that CWS would demand more but I'm not surprised MKE fans overvalue prospects.

Keep in mind Brinson has always been hurt too.

No way in hell should the Brewers trade their #1 prospect for a 1st baseman. Id rather move Shaw to 1st and overpay Moustakas

Trades for guys of Abreu's level usually require 3-4 guys, one on Brinson's level as a prospect. You're clearly winning this trade. I'd guess if you asked a Sox fan they'd say no way and expect much more back. Keep in mind if you're not winning you can also trade Abreu later.

But as Kerb said, you're not likely a contender right now so is it worth the hassle? I'm not sure. But as we see other stuff throwing around, trading Santana then signing Cain, etc. They clearly think they're in a spot to make moves and go for it so a winning value trade like this would likely be much easier than having all that stuff come together. And I know I'd rather hold onto Santana than Brinson.

[Kerb Hohl]

Thames was not very good after April. Jesus came out of nowhere, who knows what he'll do next year. Our offense was terrible the second half of the year. You'd be giving up 1 prospect for two years of a hitter that good and consistent as Abreu, it's clearly a good value trade. Being the team probably isn't really at a title window without other moves, I don't know if it's worth doing at this time. But the trade values of it would clearly be in MKE's favor. Most deals of this nature have one top level guy like Brinson and 2-3 more with him. I'd guess that CWS would demand more but I'm not surprised MKE fans overvalue prospects.

Keep in mind Brinson has always been hurt too.

No way in hell should the Brewers trade their #1 prospect for a 1st baseman. Id rather move Shaw to 1st and overpay Moustakas

Trades for guys of Abreu's level usually require 3-4 guys, one on Brinson's level as a prospect. You're clearly winning this trade. I'd guess if you asked a Sox fan they'd say no way and expect much more back. Keep in mind if you're not winning you can also trade Abreu later.

But as Kerb said, you're not likely a contender right now so is it worth the hassle? I'm not sure. But as we see other stuff throwing around, trading Santana then signing Cain, etc. They clearly think they're in a spot to make moves and go for it so a winning value trade like this would likely be much easier than having all that stuff come together. And I know I'd rather hold onto Santana than Brinson.

I'd be OK with this trade if they also sign one of the major pitchers and make another trade that doesn't completely blow up their future but also helps now.

If it's just bringing in Abreu - pass.

[Gianstoppable]

Thames was not very good after April. Jesus came out of nowhere, who knows what he'll do next year. Our offense was terrible the second half of the year. You'd be giving up 1 prospect for two years of a hitter that good and consistent as Abreu, it's clearly a good value trade. Being the team probably isn't really at a title window without other moves, I don't know if it's worth doing at this time. But the trade values of it would clearly be in MKE's favor. Most deals of this nature have one top level guy like Brinson and 2-3 more with him. I'd guess that CWS would demand more but I'm not surprised MKE fans overvalue prospects.

Keep in mind Brinson has always been hurt too.

No way in hell should the Brewers trade their #1 prospect for a 1st baseman. Id rather move Shaw to 1st and overpay Moustakas

Trades for guys of Abreu's level usually require 3-4 guys, one on Brinson's level as a prospect. You're clearly winning this trade. I'd guess if you asked a Sox fan they'd say no way and expect much more back. Keep in mind if you're not winning you can also trade Abreu later.

But as Kerb said, you're not likely a contender right now so is it worth the hassle? I'm not sure. But as we see other stuff throwing around, trading Santana then signing Cain, etc. They clearly think they're in a spot to make moves and go for it so a winning value trade like this would likely be much easier than having all that stuff come together. And I know I'd rather hold onto Santana than Brinson.

I'd rather use Brinson in a trade for pitching, not a 1st baseman, granted Abreu is really good. If Brinson and another higher level guy are involved theres no way it takes 4 players for a guy like Abreu, and if it does we would need to stay very far away and I understand chances are real Brinson could never be a consistent major leaguer. If they did make a move for Abreu I would hope we're signing Yu and maybe even Lo Cain and a reliever like Oh. Won't happen though.

[DingleJerry]

rental relief pitchers have gotten more back than just one prospect of Brinson's level. We got more for Lucroy. Heck, you could argue we got as much back for Will Smith if you value pitching a bit more than hitting. And it looks like that P is gonna flop, like most prospects do.

[trwi7]

rental relief pitchers have gotten more back than just one prospect of Brinson's level. We got more for Lucroy. Heck, you could argue we got as much back for Will Smith if you value pitching a bit more than hitting. And it looks like that P is gonna flop, like most prospects do.

These rental relief pitchers and Lucroy are usually huge upgrades for the team that acquires them and these teams are solidly in playoff position. Abreu is not that for us and we aren't solidly in a playoff position.

[bizarro]

rental relief pitchers have gotten more back than just one prospect of Brinson's level. We got more for Lucroy. Heck, you could argue we got as much back for Will Smith if you value pitching a bit more than hitting. And it looks like that P is gonna flop, like most prospects do.

These rental relief pitchers and Lucroy are usually huge upgrades for the team that acquires them and these teams are solidly in playoff position. Abreu is not that for us and we aren't solidly in a playoff position.

Egggggzactly. Those trades incur premiums because they are happening 'in season' and in the midst of a major playoff push. To correlate those to a depressed off-season is just an error-prone approach. The Brewers are in the position of leverage here and there is absolutely no need to overpay - particularly, for the 1B position. The Brewers most likely have multiple trade scenarios lined up - work Stearns has alluded to since the season's end - and they are awaiting the results of the upcoming potentially 'major' trade to see where the rest of the dominoes fall.

[DingleJerry]

Trading one prospect for a consistent AS player with two years left is not an overpay, you'd be ripping them off. You're arguing that 2 months of control has more value than 2 years. Heck, you could just do it and flip him if the Sox were dumb enough to do it. And as I'm sure has been said, you have him for two years so you can trade him again if the team isn't winning or the 2019 deadline if you can't work out a logical extension. And apparently ya'll think you can get more by trading him then. I'm in total agreeance on the 'is MKE really a contender issue' of the trade, I'm only pointing out the value is so far in your favor you kind of have to do it and figure it out later.

[trwi7]

Trading one prospect for a consistent AS player with two years left is not an overpay

On what planet is he a consistent all-star player?

5.3
3.2
1.8
4.1

That's his fWAR his four years in the majors. Thames and Santana combined for 3 WAR last year. It's just as likely that you're getting no upgrade or getting worse than it is that you're getting a 1-2 win upgrade, which isn't a lot and we shouldn't be trading a top prospect for in our position.

you'd be ripping them off.

I really couldn't give less of a **** about ripping them off. I'm looking at this strictly from the Brewers perspective and why it's stupid for us to trade Brinson for Abreu. I don't care if the White Sox would accept the deal or not.

You're arguing that 2 months of control has more value than 2 years.

I'm arguing that there are huge mitigating factors that you're willfully ignoring for whatever reason.

Heck, you could just do it and flip him if the Sox were dumb enough to do it.

How the **** much more do you think we're going to get if we trade him? Seriously, this isn't some amazing player, this isn't even a hard position to get reasonable production at. I mean Jesus Christ, you could just go out and sign Morrison, Duda or Hosmer if you want 1B production instead of going to trade multiple top prospects for Abreu.

[Flap Jackson]

i like watching darvish pitch. its fun.

i like watching darvish pitch. its fun.

I read this article a few months back, Darvish was apparently tipping his pitches, which is easily fixable.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/12/11/dodgers-yu-darvish-tipped-pitches-world-series-astros

I'm uneasy about signing an aging pitcher to a huge contract, but I'm not concerned about his World Series performance.

[DingleJerry]

Chatter of Santana for a P. Let's say it's Archer. Generally I'd be cool with that on the surface, of course would have to see what else we include though. And then signing Cain, who would get a good chunk of money, not as much as Yu but still a good amount of it. Pretty sure I'd rather just sign Yu at something like 4/90 or 5/110 and keep Santana. Who knows maybe they can do both, haha.

[MikeIsGood]

Trading Brinson for Abreu would be a Bucks move. Don't do it.

[DingleJerry]

Spoiler:

Trading one prospect for a consistent AS player with two years left is not an overpay

On what planet is he a consistent all-star player?

5.3
3.2
1.8
4.1

That's his fWAR his four years in the majors. Thames and Santana combined for 3 WAR last year. It's just as likely that you're getting no upgrade or getting worse than it is that you're getting a 1-2 win upgrade, which isn't a lot and we shouldn't be trading a top prospect for in our position.

you'd be ripping them off.

I really couldn't give less of a **** about ripping them off. I'm looking at this strictly from the Brewers perspective and why it's stupid for us to trade Brinson for Abreu. I don't care if the White Sox would accept the deal or not.

You're arguing that 2 months of control has more value than 2 years.

I'm arguing that there are huge mitigating factors that you're willfully ignoring for whatever reason.

Heck, you could just do it and flip him if the Sox were dumb enough to do it.

How the **** much more do you think we're going to get if we trade him? Seriously, this isn't some amazing player, this isn't even a hard position to get reasonable production at. I mean Jesus Christ, you could just go out and sign Morrison, Duda or Hosmer if you want 1B production instead of going to trade multiple top prospects for Abreu.

You got me, 290- 315 with good OBP with 30 and 100 and healthy for 4 years straight is really easy to come by. I know I didn't enjoy watching Thames SO over and over and his .240ish and 3-4 HRs a month after April. I'm pretty sure we're going to see much closer to that than what we saw in April.

I didn't say we'd get more, I'd say you could for sure get something back and since you only gave up 1 guy it you'd have a good shot at recouping it. You're the ones that said you get more by trading at the deadlines.

Again, I'm not surprised at the overvaluing of prospects. It's a Brewer fans way but this trade would clearly be in our favor. A core lineup of Santana, Shaw, Braun, Abreu is rock solid start to a playoff team and there's pitching still on the market to fix that hole.

And yes, whether the other team would reasonably accept it is relevant. It speaks to how off you are on valuing a player.

ETA: small trivia I think is correct is that in the history of the Brewers the only 300/30/100 guys in a season have been Braun and Jaha. I'll try to verify that, pretty sure prince got boned at .299 one year. ETE2: Looks like cooper and oglivie got it once. I must have just had Jaha in my head due to being such an odd one to get it, but not that he was the only one.

[Kerb Hohl]

Spoiler:

Trading one prospect for a consistent AS player with two years left is not an overpay

On what planet is he a consistent all-star player?

5.3
3.2
1.8
4.1

That's his fWAR his four years in the majors. Thames and Santana combined for 3 WAR last year. It's just as likely that you're getting no upgrade or getting worse than it is that you're getting a 1-2 win upgrade, which isn't a lot and we shouldn't be trading a top prospect for in our position.

you'd be ripping them off.

I really couldn't give less of a **** about ripping them off. I'm looking at this strictly from the Brewers perspective and why it's stupid for us to trade Brinson for Abreu. I don't care if the White Sox would accept the deal or not.

You're arguing that 2 months of control has more value than 2 years.

I'm arguing that there are huge mitigating factors that you're willfully ignoring for whatever reason.

Heck, you could just do it and flip him if the Sox were dumb enough to do it.

How the **** much more do you think we're going to get if we trade him? Seriously, this isn't some amazing player, this isn't even a hard position to get reasonable production at. I mean Jesus Christ, you could just go out and sign Morrison, Duda or Hosmer if you want 1B production instead of going to trade multiple top prospects for Abreu.

You got me, 290- 315 with good OBP with 30 and 100 and healthy for 4 years straight is really easy to come by. I know I didn't enjoy watching Thames SO over and over and his .240ish and 3-4 HRs a month after April. I'm pretty sure we're going to see much closer to that than what we saw in April.

I didn't say we'd get more, I'd say you could for sure get something back and since you only gave up 1 guy it you'd have a good shot at recouping it. You're the ones that said you get more by trading at the deadlines.

Again, I'm not surprised at the overvaluing of prospects. It's a Brewer fans way but this trade would clearly be in our favor. A core lineup of Santana, Shaw, Braun, Abreu is rock solid start to a playoff team and there's pitching still on the market to fix that hole.

And yes, whether the other team would reasonably accept it is relevant. It speaks to how off you are on valuing a player.

I'm not overvaluing Brinson. I'm saying "ah, well, we've got other prospects" is dumb because a lot of prospects miss. If I want 5 prospects to pan out, I want 15 of them in my system.

I do think that Abreu is a borderline All Star most years, but his defense sucks and he's getting older.

[DingleJerry]

Spoiler:

On what planet is he a consistent all-star player?

5.3
3.2
1.8
4.1

That's his fWAR his four years in the majors. Thames and Santana combined for 3 WAR last year. It's just as likely that you're getting no upgrade or getting worse than it is that you're getting a 1-2 win upgrade, which isn't a lot and we shouldn't be trading a top prospect for in our position.



I really couldn't give less of a **** about ripping them off. I'm looking at this strictly from the Brewers perspective and why it's stupid for us to trade Brinson for Abreu. I don't care if the White Sox would accept the deal or not.



I'm arguing that there are huge mitigating factors that you're willfully ignoring for whatever reason.


How the **** much more do you think we're going to get if we trade him? Seriously, this isn't some amazing player, this isn't even a hard position to get reasonable production at. I mean Jesus Christ, you could just go out and sign Morrison, Duda or Hosmer if you want 1B production instead of going to trade multiple top prospects for Abreu.

You got me, 290- 315 with good OBP with 30 and 100 and healthy for 4 years straight is really easy to come by. I know I didn't enjoy watching Thames SO over and over and his .240ish and 3-4 HRs a month after April. I'm pretty sure we're going to see much closer to that than what we saw in April.

I didn't say we'd get more, I'd say you could for sure get something back and since you only gave up 1 guy it you'd have a good shot at recouping it. You're the ones that said you get more by trading at the deadlines.

Again, I'm not surprised at the overvaluing of prospects. It's a Brewer fans way but this trade would clearly be in our favor. A core lineup of Santana, Shaw, Braun, Abreu is rock solid start to a playoff team and there's pitching still on the market to fix that hole.

And yes, whether the other team would reasonably accept it is relevant. It speaks to how off you are on valuing a player.

I'm not overvaluing Brinson. I'm saying "ah, well, we've got other prospects" is dumb because a lot of prospects miss. If I want 5 prospects to pan out, I want 15 of them in my system.

I do think that Abreu is a borderline All Star most years, but his defense sucks and he's getting older.

Which is why it's good only have to give up one guy so you keep your numbers game depth. And the 'we have other guys' is your basic trading of position of strength/depth model that almost everyone goes by. You have multiple OF prospects and two set starters if Santana isn't traded. Even after Brinson/Phillips there is another batch of highly regarded OFs, one should work out.

Still, this doesn't sound like one that is on the table right now so best to move on, like the previous thing I said with the Santana trade whirly dervy. I was merely stating giving up one guy would be great value and we know they valued him from the Quintana talks. At least you can talk civilly without needing to be insulting .

[Kerb Hohl]

The “insider” (who knows if he really is) on bf.net says Darvish won’t be a Brewer.

The Cubs just signed Darvish’s personal catcher, sooooooo....

[Turk Nowitzki]

The “insider” (who knows if he really is) on bf.net says Darvish won’t be a Brewer.

The Cubs just signed Darvish’s personal catcher, sooooooo....

What's the over/under on how long it took for Darvish's agent to shop our offer to the Cubs and others? They were probably dialing as we submitted our offer.

[sdn40]

I know baseball trades are sometimes more than whats on the surface, but doesn't Stearns find .300 hitters in his sleep for almost nothing ? Why trade for one that's 30 years old ? Isn't that just about the time Braun started to slide ? It also doesn't seem like a 'major' trade to me unless we 'majorly' overpay. No reason not to trust Stearns though. I'm confused.

[Kerb Hohl]

I know baseball trades are sometimes more than whats on the surface, but doesn't Stearns find .300 hitters in his sleep for almost nothing ? Why trade for one that's 30 years old ? Isn't that just about the time Braun started to slide ? It also doesn't seem like a 'major' trade to me unless we 'majorly' overpay. No reason not to trust Stearns though. I'm confused.

Did we have a single .300 hitter as a regular hitter last year?

I agree on most of your Abreu assessment, though.