Trade Rumors Thread - Brewers Open for Business (30)

[ReasonablySober]

I said maybe. I didn't say he would. Werth was my precedent, but Hart's going to have to have a big '13 to get close to 100 million. Another example might be Carlos Lee. At age 30 he got a six year, $100 million dollar deal. If Hart has a season where he has an OPS north of .850 some team could give a $15 million a year contract for five years and an option. Who knows.

But I really have a tough time seeing Hamilton get a mega deal like Texiera or Fielder got. If he was healthy, didn't have muscle and back issues and didn't have the off the field problems, absolutely. But he won't see close to what they got now IMO.

[Kerb Hohl]

Why not, though? Teixeira was as good of a hitter as Hamilton but right now he's at Hamilton's age and he's a far worse hitter (was a great defensive 1B). He got that deal when he was pretty young.

Prince was also young and sucks at defense and still got that deal. Actually, Prince has his head on completely straight but just from a sheer baseball production standpoint, I might be more worried about Prince in an 8 year deal. Hamilton is in great shape whereas I'm not sure Prince's body holds up in 2018. If it does, he's probably a brutal 1B if he forces his way into that position still.

That said, we're talking about something that is between what Poo Holes/A-Rod got in their early 30s as "only a few in a generation" type guys and what Werth/Ethier and maybe Hart get. I think those are the ones to match with.

Hamilton right now plays a passable CF but probably won't be too good for very much longer. Given the injury issues, I wouldn't put him on Poo Holes' level but he's in between there and Werth/Ethier. Therefore, I think he goes 6/140 because some teams are scared of going beyond 6. 8/180 if some team does think so.

If he goes for anything less, you think Milwaukee is going to be his choice out of 25 teams? That's what it will have to be, because if the going price is only 100 million over 6 or 7, then I think 25 teams will put in a bid.

[ReasonablySober]

Why not, though?

Already said why. He's on the wrong side of 30, hasn't played a full season in four years, he's got back and muscle problems and he's got serious off the field issues.

[Kerb Hohl]

That's fine. If he isn't going to cost that much, I'll eat my own poo if Milwaukee is his decision over, you know, Texas or LA or New York. Let's disregard that those teams can be dumb enough to overpay but if they aren't, then unless Reggie White's brain is transplanted in his for a week, he's not picking Milwaukee unless he's throwing a dart up on the board.

At age 29, a position where it's hard to be elite over 30, and without playing a full season since 2008, Jose Reyes got 6/106. Hamilton is a lot more valuable given that power doesn't die that easily.

[jr lucosa]

What would you guys think of offering something like 2/$40 for Hamilton? If he doesn't get any monster long contracts would he consider? Would it be a smart move for us or would it just cripple flexibility?

[Kerb Hohl]

What would you guys think of offering something like 2/$40 for Hamilton? If he doesn't get any monster long contracts would he consider? Would it be a smart move for us or would it just cripple flexibility?

Yeah, that would be a wonderful deal because there is minimal risk for the Brewers long-term. But we'd have to catch the pigs flying first.

You think that the Angels with 60 million freed up this year won't offer him more?

The Rangers only have 70 million on the books next season without arbitrations and a new TV deal.

The Dodgers are on the hook for a lot (only next year, though) and have Magic Johnson's group.

Baltimore, who I think wants to finally jump in the competitive pool has only $50 million on the books next year.

If somebody gets him for 2/40, it's not going to be the Brewers. All it takes is one team to offer him more, and somebody will.

[ReasonablySober]

That's fine. If he isn't going to cost that much, I'll eat my own poo if Milwaukee is his decision over, you know, Texas or LA or New York. Let's disregard that those teams can be dumb enough to overpay but if they aren't, then unless Reggie White's brain is transplanted in his for a week, he's not picking Milwaukee unless he's throwing a dart up on the board.

I'll be stunned if gets close to 6/$140 or north of $20 million a season.

[jr lucosa]

What would you guys think of offering something like 2/$40 for Hamilton? If he doesn't get any monster long contracts would he consider? Would it be a smart move for us or would it just cripple flexibility?

Yeah, that would be a wonderful deal because there is minimal risk for the Brewers long-term. But we'd have to catch the pigs flying first.

You think that the Angels with 60 million freed up this year won't offer him more?

The Rangers only have 70 million on the books next season without arbitrations and a new TV deal.

The Dodgers are on the hook for a lot (only next year, though) and have Magic Johnson's group.

Baltimore, who I think wants to finally jump in the competitive pool has only $50 million on the books next year.

If somebody gets him for 2/40, it's not going to be the Brewers. All it takes is one team to offer him more, and somebody will.

Angels I think will shy away from a long term Hamilton deal. They just gave another star over 30 a huge deal and is proving in year 1 he is already on the decline. Plus you would think they will go hard after Greinke. I know they have a new TV contract but who are they the Yankees?

Rangers make sense obviously, all depends on if they want to take the risk on him. They should know more about him than any other organization so i'm sure most clubs will be watching to see what kind of interest they have.

Baltimore and LA both make sense I guess.

[Kerb Hohl]

That's fine. If he isn't going to cost that much, I'll eat my own poo if Milwaukee is his decision over, you know, Texas or LA or New York. Let's disregard that those teams can be dumb enough to overpay but if they aren't, then unless Reggie White's brain is transplanted in his for a week, he's not picking Milwaukee unless he's throwing a dart up on the board.

I'll be stunned if gets close to 6/$140 or north of $20 million a season.

If that's the case, I'll be even more stunned if he picks Milwaukee out of basically everyone bidding on a "fair" deal. You pay a guy Jayson Werth money and potentially get the league MVP as your reward. Yes please.

[Kerb Hohl]

What would you guys think of offering something like 2/$40 for Hamilton? If he doesn't get any monster long contracts would he consider? Would it be a smart move for us or would it just cripple flexibility?

Yeah, that would be a wonderful deal because there is minimal risk for the Brewers long-term. But we'd have to catch the pigs flying first.

You think that the Angels with 60 million freed up this year won't offer him more?

The Rangers only have 70 million on the books next season without arbitrations and a new TV deal.

The Dodgers are on the hook for a lot (only next year, though) and have Magic Johnson's group.

Baltimore, who I think wants to finally jump in the competitive pool has only $50 million on the books next year.

If somebody gets him for 2/40, it's not going to be the Brewers. All it takes is one team to offer him more, and somebody will.

Angels I think will shy away from a long term Hamilton deal. They just gave another star over 30 a huge deal and is proving in year 1 he is already on the decline. Plus you would think they will go hard after Greinke. I know they have a new TV contract but who are they the Yankees?

Rangers make sense obviously, all depends on if they want to take the risk on him. They should know more about him than any other organization so i'm sure most clubs will be watching to see what kind of interest they have.

Baltimore and LA both make sense I guess.

I'd wait until the end of the year before saying Albert is on the decline. He was the best in baseball the last 2 months outside of maybe Mike Trout. Obviously the last 3-4 years of that deal will not be at value, but Pujols has been every bit as great as he once was the last 2-3 months.

I was just throwing out possibilities. A bunch of other teams will be in the mix.

[Kerb Hohl]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19103520/hamiltons-best-spot-is-texas-but-here-are-14-other-possibilities

Very little has come out about the negotiations, and the only snippets I've gathered to date are that Hamilton wants to be paid like an "elite'' player, which presumably means in the $200 million category of Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder, and that the Rangers absolutely will not go to 10 years.

"Want" and "will get" are very different terms, but he's going to get paid.

The Brewers are listed as a destination on the article but the reasoning isn't great.

I just don't see it.

[jr lucosa]

As good as Albert has been over the last couple months I still don't see him ever reaching .330/.410/.600 again in his career in a full season in any of those categories, and this is year 1 of 10. I don't think he ever reaches 40 HR's again either.

I was just throwing out possibilities. A bunch of other teams will be in the mix.

Fair enough. But you said if he accepts 2/$40 from anyone it wouldn't be the Brewers, why is that?

[ReasonablySober]

So the Rangers won't pay him elite money. I don't see how that helps your argument.

[El Duderino]

That's fine. If he isn't going to cost that much, I'll eat my own poo if Milwaukee is his decision over, you know, Texas or LA or New York. Let's disregard that those teams can be dumb enough to overpay but if they aren't, then unless Reggie White's brain is transplanted in his for a week, he's not picking Milwaukee unless he's throwing a dart up on the board.

I'll be stunned if gets close to 6/$140 or north of $20 million a season.

I won't.

Nearly every offseason guys get contracts that seem way over the top risky. Hell, look at Votto. Even though he doesn't come with the risks of Hamilton, the Reds have guaranteed him an insane 12 years. From 2018-2023 they'll owe him 25 million a year. Think about that. He easily could be in clear decline and/or breaking down physically by the time 2018 starts, yet the Reds will still owe him 125 million dollars. Cole Hamels was given 6 years at huge money even though pitchers health is the ultimate injury risk in baseball.

Pujols contract is also way to long and at some point his contract will end up being the Angels version of A-Rod to the Yankees. It's been stunning to me watching so many owners throw around all these 5-6 years big money deals to pitchers and 7-10 year huge money deals to position players the last few years. Most of these contracts will end up being varying degrees of albatrosses.

So even though there is no way if i owned a team that i'd give Hamilton some say 6 year 20-plus million per deal, another team or two will so long as he doesn't finish the season in the funk he's currently in. Baseball owners have shown time and time again that they'll overpay in free agency, both in years/dollars, especially for upper tier players. They just can't help themselves and it's gotten even worse with the sport swimming in a flood of new cable TV money.

[Kerb Hohl]

Another article mentions that a decent middle grounds is 4/100.

The Rangers will pay elite money but not elite years.

My argument is that somebody will offer way more than the Brewers, and I don't see why picking Milwaukee is any any sort of realm of possibility.

[El Duderino]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/19103520/hamiltons-best-spot-is-texas-but-here-are-14-other-possibilities

Very little has come out about the negotiations, and the only snippets I've gathered to date are that Hamilton wants to be paid like an "elite'' player, which presumably means in the $200 million category of Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder, and that the Rangers absolutely will not go to 10 years.

"Want" and "will get" are very different terms, but he's going to get paid.

The Brewers are listed as a destination on the article but the reasoning isn't great.

I just don't see it.

He forgot the Giants IMO. They have lots of cash, great pitching, but could really use a big bat in their lineup.

[humanrefutation]

Seriously, it seems like every recent offseason we've had some rumor floating around about how the Brewers are going to pony up serious money for an elite talent, whether it was Sabathia, Fielder, Greinke, or Hamilton. It hasn't happened, and it won't happen.

[mlloyd10]

Does anybody realize that Hamilton is batting like .201 since June 1st because he was trying to quit crewing tobacco. I know 2 months isn't a lot, but if something like chewing tobacco effects your game that much, puts up some more red flags. (I personal crew tobacco and I know how it feels to go a couple of days with out some) If any team gives him more than 4 years, they would be extremely stupid. He hasn't played more than 133 games the last three years and will never be someone to hit 40 home runs. I'm not taking anything away from him, he's a very good player, but will turn 32 early next season, power will start to decline. I can see .300, 30, 100 next couple of years, but by the time he's 35, he will lucking if he can get .280, 25, 80 based on previous trends

[Kerb Hohl]

If he can put up .340 OBP with 25 HR in his late 30s, that's pretty good for being "overpaid" or whatever. Not worth 20-25 million but I'd live with that for getting an elite player on that contract early on.

He'll recover this season. Something's maybe going on, but it's just a long slump.

[mlloyd10]

If he can put up .340 OBP with 25 HR in his late 30s, that's pretty good for being "overpaid" or whatever. Not worth 20-25 million but I'd live with that for getting an elite player on that contract early on.

He'll recover this season. Something's maybe going on, but it's just a long slump.

So Torii Hunter...and funny that he signed a 5/90 when he was 32 years old...If Hamilton accepted that, that would be my top offer for him and make it front loaded. 22.5-20-17.5-15-15