OT: Epstein to Cubs

LUKE23 · Post #1 » by **LUKE23** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 3:26 pm

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/70918 ... -year-deal

Post #2 » by **MickeyDavis** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 3:48 pm

Hard to really judge/compare GM's in baseball with such a wide range of payrolls.

Kerb Hohl · Post #3 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 4:15 pm

I think Epstein is really good. Then again, any GM can destroy themselves in a big market because they DO have money to spend.

Boston's overreaction is incredible.

mnstinks · Post #4 » by **mnstinks** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:18 pm

Prince to Cubs

Kerb Hohl · Post #5 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 5:49 pm

mnstinks wrote:Prince to Cubs

I'm pretty sure the combination of him coming to grips with the fact that they oversigned some guys (I don't think his system necessarily said "sign Lackey" but they had the money to do it)

AND

the fact that the guy factors all aspects of the game in and understands how to compute defensive contributions

AND

the Cubs have $50 million of dead weight on the books the next few years

would say that I don't think Prince is going there. I would think it would factor out as an overpaid/poor signing for them factoring in his defense and potential length of the deal.

Theo Epstein = smart GM that understands the numbers.

Epstein DOES NOT = more payroll. How does that make any sense?

emunney · Post #6 » by **emunney** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 6:44 pm

This sucks. Epstein is a very good GM. This is the last place I wanted to see him land.

He took chances with payroll in Boston because he had that luxury. He will continue to do so, I would assume, with the Cubs, once their overall situation settles down a bit. In the meantime, I bet he makes them competitive.

WEFFPIM · Post #7 » by **WEFFPIM** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 6:55 pm

I think Friedman is a better fit there, honestly. The Cubs just got rid of a guy who has the exact same M.O. as Epstein. His style can be gangbusters good or disastrously bad. Hell, just look at the Cubs and Red Sox last year. Cubs fans are more than ready for the franchise to hit the reset button and build from within, Epstein won't do that.

I think they'll win more, but they would have won the same amount with Friedman and set themselves up better long term.

BUCKnation · Post #8 » by **BUCKnation** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:05 pm

imagine friedman with money. Watch out.

Kerb Hohl · Post #9 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:08 pm

BUCKnation wrote:imagine friedman with money. Watch out.

One could argue that that is Epstein.

I personally prefer Friedman, but it is hard to compare because Epstein basically has to go out and spend money (as if that's a bad thing...it actually can be).

I'm sure Friedman would not want to spend for John Lackey or Bobby Jenks but ownership and the fans basically may force him to.

Plus, if he has a hole in the relief spot that he worries about a guy picking up the slack for, then Jenks may be an expensive option, but an option since he has $20 million lying around.

RiotPunch · Post #10 » by **RiotPunch** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:14 pm

Yeah, I'm not a fan of this. Cubs made a good move.

WEFFPIM · Post #11 » by **WEFFPIM** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:16 pm

GrendonJennings wrote:One could argue that that is Epstein.

I would not.

Kerb Hohl · Post #12 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:22 pm

WEFFPIM wrote:
GrendonJennings wrote:One could argue that that is Epstein.

I would not.

Why? Are the 2 World Series titles in the way?

I will never know the answer to that question but I'm pretty sure if Freidman was GM of Boston he'd make similarly awful mistakes. Or do you think he'd make extremely shrewd trades and hold a payroll around $40 million?

Most people think that the Yankees are very smart with the extremely large budget they have and yet they have even made some massive bust signings.

I guess I have to go back and look at Theo's trade history, but both guys have a strong grip on the numbers of the game.

Also consider that Friedman's key players were mostly top 5 or 10 picks. Another thing that Epstein doesn't have the luxury of anymore.

Kerb Hohl · Post #13 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:39 pm

Where would the Rays franchise be without Upton, Longoria, Price, Niemann and other top 10 picks?

Maybe Epstein was smart enough to do this as well, but when you're a $150 million payroll and in the playoff chase every year (since they started the WS run) he couldn't trade away vets for prospects often.

I'm pretty sure both of these guys (financial education backgrounds) would both have a great cost analysis and if they had a choice, build a team organically with high picks and selling high on overvalued vets like Garza, but once he got his team in place, he wasn't in nearly as good of a draft position to take superstars and would have a hard time justifying dealing Ortiz for prospects or something.

BUCKnation · Post #14 » by **BUCKnation** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:01 pm

I guess with friedman is that he drafts so well that he would he use his money to keep these guys long term. Then use his money to fill out the rest of his lineup and other weak areas for fillers. No one knows this for sure what he would do with $150 mil payroll.

My best guess is that his most recent offseason losing crawford, pena, and garza among other bullpen guys, would have been close to the same with the exception of losing crawford and a bullpen arm or two. Obviously those 3 turned into flops (for their contracts) with their teams. If that happened Jennings goes to RF, Crawford stays in LF and their current RF (Zobrist) plays 2B.

Kerb Hohl · Post #15 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:10 pm

BUCKnation wrote:I guess with friedman is that he drafts so well that he would he use his money to keep these guys long term.

But you haven't answered my questions.

Theo Epstein doesn't draft top 10 and get those guys as easily anymore. Epstein can get guys like Buchholz in the 2nd or whatever, etc. just like Friedman got Moore in the 8th out of HS.

Plus, Friedman can routinely sign guys knowing that he can deal them at the deadline or let them walk for the compensation picks.

I think you guys are missing the point here. Does Cashman draft that well? Probably, but it's hard to tell.

We need to compare apples to apples. If Epstein had 4 or 5 high picks (in every round) plus a ton of comp picks in a row for a few years to build his team maybe he'd draft that well also. I actually think he would.

He's traded away a ton of drafted studs to build his team (Hanley Ramirez...Rizzo is going to be a stud). That's what you do in a big market.

He's also brought in studs through his system (Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youk) so it isn't like he didn't draft well (I don't think he drafted all of them).

It's just a different world. These guys have to almost go against their principles because once you build your foundation of a 90 win team with $40 million worth of rookie contracts, to go over the top of that if you've got an extra $100 million to spend will be done by overpaying players.

BUCKnation · Post #16 » by **BUCKnation** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:20 pm

Epstein has shown a good combo of having good in house prospects (trading most) and signing big guys b/c he can. Epstein is much better than Cashman

I mean imagine if the rays had a-gon instead of kotchman (no disrespect here, kotchman is very underrated and i wouldnt mind him on the crew next year with prince gone)

Kerb Hohl · Post #17 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:36 pm

I swear to god...

are you reading what I'm saying?

Epstein traded top prospect Anthony Rizzo and others for A-Gon. If Friedman had the luxury of paying $20+ million a year for that guy, he probably does it too, even if the "wins per dollar" is slightly off.

This is not an apples to apples comparison. I'm sure Epstein would build just like Friedman and vise versa given the circumstances.

Theo Epstein studies the numbers very well. I guarantee you he's not paying John Lackey for a projected 3 extra wins if he's got a $40 million payroll. Instead, he's trying to frugally trade for a guy like Kotchmann that sneakily gets him 2 wins.

Friedman is a great GM, probably #1 in the game, but he had a bunch of top 5 picks to start things out. Epstein could have very well done the same, but if you can spend $100 million on John Lackey and ALSO develop your farm system....and your fans and ownership are begging you to do it....you do it.

If Friedman was given an extra $100 million next year what would he spend it on? Nothing?

No, probably a bunch of overpaid free agents, because he can.

Flames24Rulz · Post #18 » by **Flames24Rulz** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:43 pm

mnstinks wrote:Prince to Cubs

I wish, but we still don't really have a budget to make a move like that. I don't see that happening.

I'm giddy, though. This is probably the happiest I've been (regarding the Cubs) since DeRosa homered in Game 1 of the '08 NLDS. Its been all downhill since.

Now can you guys win the World Series this year? Thanks

WEFFPIM · Post #19 » by **WEFFPIM** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:53 pm

GrendonJennings wrote:I swear to god...

are you reading what I'm saying?

Epstein traded top prospect Mike Rizzo and others for A-Gon. If Friedman had the luxury of paying $20+ million a year for that guy, he probably does it too, even if the "wins per dollar" is slightly off.

This is not an apples to apples comparison. I'm sure Epstein would build just like Friedman and vise versa given the circumstances.

Theo Epstein studies the numbers very well. I guarantee you he's not paying John Lackey for a projected 3 extra wins if he's got a $40 million payroll. Instead, he's trying to frugally trade for a guy like Kotchmann that sneakily gets him 2 wins.

Friedman is a great GM, probably #1 in the game, but he had a bunch of top 5 picks to start things out. Epstein could have very well done the same, but if you can spend $100 million on John Lackey and ALSO develop your farm system....and your fans and ownership are begging you to do it....you do it.

If Friedman was given an extra $100 million next year what would he spend it on? Nothing?

No, probably a bunch of overpaid free agents, because he can.

You're basing your opinions on hypotheticals. What if Friedman had Epstein's salary? What if Epstein had Friedman's salary? They didn't. We only know what they've done. We know with a giant payroll, Epstein has overspent. We know with a smaller payroll, Friedman has built from within. We have no idea what Friedman would do with a bigger payroll. You can say he'll go bonanza on big name free agents, but you have no idea. And we won't know. But I like Friedman's more diverse track record and similar results than Epstein's, who's philosophy has failed a few times, this year miserably. The Cubs just had a guy like that and look where it's got them. A bad team with bad contracts and no farm system. I like Friedman to fix that over Epstein.

Kerb Hohl · Post #20 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:13 pm

That wasn't the point of what I was saying.

I just think it's hilarious that you think Epstein is dumb enough to go out and try to patch the holes with money for the Cubs because he was doing that with the Red Sox. He responsibly built that team, and there is nobody I'd expect to look at wins per dollar more than that guy.

He was spending a **** of money with the Red Sox because he built a good team through his own system and then had another $100 million to spend. No **** he's going to overpay for some players, because what else are you going to do with that? Extend Casey Kotchmann?

Epstein has also won two World Series, if you want to take out all the nonsense. I think Friedman wins those, too...but that's all hypothetical.

I don't think you understand that Epstein is a Beane/James disciple. So wouldn't he understand how to responsibly build a team, especially considering he's already won 2 World Series?