2014 Discussion Thread

[Kerb Hohl]

This is not a reactionary thread. There is still a chance that the offense gets healthy or the bullpen becomes average and the team fights back into contention.

But this year and especially next are swing seasons. In Bucks style, I think it is pretty reasonable to expect them not to have a massive firesale/rebuild, which is why I've lived with a bit of the "win now" they've tried the past few years while Braun is in his prime, but it has backfired a bit. Actually, quite a few of the "win now" moves have looked decent, but the bullpen has been atrocious.

Anyways, what are we looking for? If this team keeps losing, I think this is a relevant thread until trade deadline day.

Some help:
Spreadsheet with contract data
Page with more in-depth contract info

1. I personally don't think it is realistic to trade Lohse immediately. If we suck again next year, he's deadline fodder there.
2. Hart/A-Ram should be on the block. Weeks as well if he recovers.
3. If we are brutally bad and we think Yovani is going to get too much in the open market after 2014, I'm open to somebody ridiculously overpaying for him in a trade.

[MickeyDavis]

If Hart can come back healthy he should definitely be dealt but I don't know if there's enough time for him to establish any value. Hopefully we let him go after the season unless he will resign cheap. Ax should be gone too.

[Asher]

personally, i think as long as we have braun, we'll try to win. we may suffer a 'down' season where young guys play alongside the pros, but i don't think they will ever really bottom out with braun on the roster. he's too easy to build around and try for a wild card. we can all see the difference a ramirez/fielder makes to the team. if the bullpen (and offense) could get its act in order, you wouldn't be far away any year. attanasio won't bottom out unless he has to. they may not be contenders, but as long as they can still compete, they'll keep trying.

[MickeyDavis]

It's time to cut bait with Weeks. He's owed $22.5 million in 14-15 (15 is an option he will get if he stays a starter). I know we don't have anyone banging down the door at second but how much worse can Scooter (or anyone else) be? Weeks is brutal.

Hart - if he shows anything in June, trade him. He'll be 32 next season, not that old for baseball, but unless he's willing to take a pay cut well under $10 million, goodbye.

Ramirez goes from $10 mil to $16 mil, love to trade him and it might be possible since he only has that one year left. If he's putting up good numbers at the deadline, move his ass.

Lohse's contract is flat, $11 million each of the 3 years. He'll be kept.

Yo goes from $8 million to $11.5 million next year and will be a FA. He'll be 28 next year, $11.5 million isn't that much for a good hurler. I have a feeling Doug will try to extend him before next season.

Braun goes from $8 mil to $11.5 mil. Thank you thank you thank you for signing that contract.

Ax is making $5 mil and will be ARB2 next year. Bye.

Gogo goes from $4.3 to $7, that's fine.

Lucroy goes from $850K to $2.1 mil.

[jr lucosa]

I think Rickie will turn it around again on offense and put up another decent season, we saw him really struggle early last year too and it is worth noting that his OBP is .113 higher than his BA so far this year and that's with only 1 HBP, something that he's well known for. The hits just need to start coming and I believe they will, the question becomes is the Rickie who hits .240 with 20 homers and inconsistent D worth that kind of money?

I've been wanting to trade Hart for years, I don't trust him he's going to fall apart for good any minute and I agree that if he gets off to a good start he should be heavily shopped at the deadline.

I think we end up riding out the Ramirez contract. The problem with trading him is that I don't see us going into full rebuild mode and he's a very important/productive piece of this lineup. I don't think theres any way he's traded this year and if he plays well through next year I could see him getting a 2nd contract with the team. Only way I see him dealt is if we're out of it by the deadline next year and he's putting up big numbers.

[ReasonablySober]

It's time to cut bait with Weeks. He's owed $22.5 million in 14-15 (15 is an option he will get if he stays a starter). I know we don't have anyone banging down the door at second but how much worse can Scooter (or anyone else) be? Weeks is brutal.

Hart - if he shows anything in June, trade him. He'll be 32 next season, not that old for baseball, but unless he's willing to take a pay cut well under $10 million, goodbye.

Ramirez goes from $10 mil to $16 mil, love to trade him and it might be possible since he only has that one year left. If he's putting up good numbers at the deadline, move his ass.

Lohse's contract is flat, $11 million each of the 3 years. He'll be kept.

Yo goes from $8 million to $11.5 million next year and will be a FA. He'll be 28 next year, $11.5 million isn't that much for a good hurler. I have a feeling Doug will try to extend him before next season.

Braun goes from $8 mil to $11.5 mil. Thank you thank you thank you for signing that contract.

Ax is making $5 mil and will be ARB2 next year. Bye.

Gogo goes from $4.3 to $7, that's fine.

Lucroy goes from $850K to $2.1 mil.

Agreed on Weeks, Hart and Ramirez. I don't see any reason to keep Scooter in the minors at this point. The drop off from Rickie to Gennett isn't going to be so huge that it makes keeping Rickie around at that salary. The only question is what kind of value does he even have.

Ideally Ramirez continues to swing a hot bat. I'd be fine keeping him around for the remainder of the season unless the Brewers get an offer of a legit prospect.

Hart I simply don't want to extend unless it's very team friendly, and I don't think that happens. So hopefully he comes back strong and the Brewers get offers.

[Kerb Hohl]

It's interest with Khris Davis. I am not a scout so I can't comment on the natural abilities or pitches they can hit, etc. but Davis and Hart have almost EXACT trajectories at the plate through the minors. Davis with a better ability to get on base is the only difference. Would be nice if he panned out...would have to play RF after Aoki is gone because I don't think they want him to play 1B. And at 5'11" I'm not sure an NL team wants that unless you're fat and can't play anywhere else like Prince.

[PANDEMONEUM]

It's time to cut bait with Weeks. He's owed $22.5 million in 14-15 (15 is an option he will get if he stays a starter). I know we don't have anyone banging down the door at second but how much worse can Scooter (or anyone else) be? Weeks is brutal.

Hart - if he shows anything in June, trade him. He'll be 32 next season, not that old for baseball, but unless he's willing to take a pay cut well under $10 million, goodbye.

Ramirez goes from $10 mil to $16 mil, love to trade him and it might be possible since he only has that one year left. If he's putting up good numbers at the deadline, move his ass.

Lohse's contract is flat, $11 million each of the 3 years. He'll be kept.

Yo goes from $8 million to $11.5 million next year and will be a FA. He'll be 28 next year, $11.5 million isn't that much for a good hurler. I have a feeling Doug will try to extend him before next season.

Braun goes from $8 mil to $11.5 mil. Thank you thank you thank you for signing that contract.

Ax is making $5 mil and will be ARB2 next year. Bye.

Gogo goes from $4.3 to $7, that's fine.

Lucroy goes from $850K to $2.1 mil.

i agree 100% with all of this

how will the fans react ?
if we move / let go of Weeks and Hart within 1 year, will the casual fan understand ?
y r they so attached to them ?

[Aaron It Out]

It's time to cut bait with Weeks. He's owed $22.5 million in 14-15 (15 is an option he will get if he stays a starter). I know we don't have anyone banging down the door at second but how much worse can Scooter (or anyone else) be? Weeks is brutal.

At first I read that as if it was a basketball or football season, and nearly crapped myself.

But I agree with pretty much that entire post.

[Asher]

i think the 'casual' fans are sour on weeks by now. the things they see are the avg., the strikeouts, and the errors. honestly, i don't think you need to look anywhere past that either---same goes for axford, noone cares if it's his mechanics or command or it's mental, at this point all they see is another two-run homer in the 8th. gennett/weeks is close enough to a wash it doesn't matter. that said, i still think they ride rickie to the end of this season. he's homegrown and been with us ten years. not agreeing with it.

you're probably right about everything MD, i might disagree on shipping ramirez. obviously, our record at the deadline will be important. i think they very much believe (hope) gallardo/burgos/peralta/lohse/estrada/thornburg/hellweg/jungmann/bradley/whoever are going to form a quality rotation and bullpen with some vets peppered in. they're crossing fingers for next year.

*eta just occurred to me if betancourt keeps hitting i could see them rolling with him at third the rest of the way and cash in on ramirez.

[Kerb Hohl]

I wouldn't say Gennett and Weeks is a wash. I guess if we assume Weeks getting .800+ OPSes again are in the past it's not that far off, but Gennett early in his career is not going to be a great on base or slugging guy.

I guess the way Weeks is playing, most players coming up from AAA wouldn't be too far off.

I would not roll with Betancourt the rest of the way. That's a big **** gamble to think that Yuni is going to slug 200 points higher than his career with the same horrible .290 OBP and poopy approach at the plate.

I'm not too far off of your opinion here, as you dispel the "casual fan" but Betancourt is a dangerous risk to bet on the rest of the way.

[Asher]

i agree with you on yuni b, just saying if he's playing at a high level at the end of july, i could see that as a possibility if the team isn't contending and they want to move ramirez for something. still don't think they move him unless it's dismal.

weeks ops has trended down since 2009---i'll believe it's back up around .800 when i see it. i don't think gennett is incapable of that, but of course there will be a learning curve. week is still capable of offering pop, gennett won't, and i don't think gennett will ever be big in the slugging department unless he learns to consistently hit to the gaps---but i believe he can. factor in the salaries, and that's where i say whichever.

[Thunder Muscle]

I don't think Weeks is ever going to put together a season of being a stud hitter. He'll have some flashes but if he gets hot in June, July I would trade him while the value is good.

Hart I don't foresee getting enough time to draw value. I'd trade if you can get any value out of him. I don't know if I'd resign either. His injuries are adding up.

I'm all for restocking the farm system.

[wichmae]

Yeah I agree. Hart, Weeks, and even Aramis should all help in restocking the farm.

[blazza18]

Yeah I agree. Hart, Weeks, and even Aramis should all help in restocking the farm.

[Kerb Hohl]

I've jumped back and forth with this. I started this thread like 8 games into the season when the offense looked very good, the starters looked alright, but the bullpen being the X-factor looking like trash. I wrote this thread because if the bullpen didn't turn into anything, you'd know this season is over 10 games into it.

Then I thought we might have a chance when it seemed like the collection of guys in the pen might actually pan out.

Anyways, looks like we're back to sell discussions. I hope Hart can display something by the deadline. I think even if Hart plays one week in the majors before the deadline, that may be enough to sell for something.

Sell Aramis, Hart, Weeks (if he's even worth anything). Aoki is a wild card. He's fairly paid and I think should platoon with Khris Davis next year. If somebody wanted to offer a 24-year-old relief pitcher for him, I'd do it.

I was driving the Weeks bandwagon his entire career but unless something magical happens, I think you decline that vesting option (is it possible?) or work on selling him this year or next.

[trwi7]

Aoki is worth more than a **** reliever.

[Kerb Hohl]

In the truest sense of WAR, yes, you're right. I used to hate the idea of paying relievers big bucks because in theory, they seem replaceable by flame throwers from the minors and they only throw 70 innings in a good season.

I'm the biggest WAR guy out there but there are definite issues with it when it comes to bullpen. According to Fangraphs, in 2012, only Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel scored higher WARs than Aoki. That's absurd.

That said, a soon-to-be 32 year old player that has half of his game predicated on speed with 1 year left on his deal might not be a future commodity.

He's a .760 OPS lefty that can do everything pretty well. Well, Oakland and other teams churn out platoons that can do that in their sleep at the corner spots.

There are probably 20 corner outfielders as good as or better than Aoki and a smart GM/manager could platoon to the point of washing out Aoki's production. How many Craig Kimbrels are there? I'm not even suggesting the Brewers trade Aoki for Craig Kimbrel. Maybe someone in the realm of Ryan Cook (I doubt Oakland would trade for a replaceable commodity like that). A name of that stature. Cook is 27 which is fine but I'm saying a young reliever that can be under team control for 5-6 years if we want it.

The Braves bullpen supposedly only had a combined 5.9 WAR last year among qualified pitchers yet if the Brewers had their bullpen, I'd bet they are in the playoffs. Hell, if trade machines were made of WAR, we could have traded Hart/Aoki for Atlanta's entire bullpen (WARs added up are pretty close) and then just signed Cody Ross for lefties, Scheriholz for righties, and called it a day.

If Aoki suffered a career ending injury tomorrow, we could replace him with Khris Davis next season and a cheap lefty bat and not skip a beat. Or maybe just sign another replacement RF that is fairly close to Aoki's stature.

The bullpen has been **** for years. Any ideas?

[trwi7]

Aoki doesn't have one year left on his deal. He goes through arbitration.

[Kerb Hohl]

We just had an early 30s lefty speed/contact outfielder go through arbitration that is playing in Japan right now. Aoki is a better hitter and doesn't absolutely fail against lefties, but I think the main point of this argument is:

A. Aoki is replaceable much more than a good relief pitcher is.
B. I really like him, but if we're talking about 2014/2015 and being competitive, he's not that big of an asset to me given his age/replaceability.

If you want to quickly restock the farm system and compete with the back end of Braun's prime in 2015 or 2016 or whatever, Aoki makes no sense in those plans.

If you want to go "win now" again next year, we need to quickly restock the bullpen. I'd take a decent starter, but I think we can mimic a 4/5 starter with our minor league system and nobody is trading us a top-end pitcher for Aoki. Trading him for offense doesn't make a ton of sense. If someone offered a good pitching or even young hitting prospect, of course I'd take that as well.

Does he really go through arby? I just assumed since he was won in bidding and has an option on his contract next year that it didn't seem like the classic MLB "rookie" deal, but I guess it would make sense to put him through the same rules as anyone else.

Finally, you didn't really answer...what makes him that much more valuable than a good, young relief pitcher? Of course, his quantity value in a 162 game season is more valuable, but relief pitching is very important and really hard to acquire.