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The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 9:35 pm
by ReasonablySober
In Joe Sheehan's newsletter (which you should subscribe to) he went deep on a problem we don't talk a lot about, and that's how absurdly right-handed the Brewers are.
f the Brewers' 1405 plate appearances this year, 1170 of them -- 83% -- have been taken by right-handed batters. (Making the math easy, the Brewers have no switch-hitters, either.) They're on pace to have more than 5100 plate appearances by righties, which would be among the five highest figures in the expansion era:
Most RH PA, 162-game seasons
Year Team RH PA Pct. RSRk OPS+
1970 Padres 5397 87.8 11/12 92
1977 Padres 5279 83.0 6/12 97
1998 Astros 5261 81.7 1/16 109
1996 Astros 5105 81.4 8/14 100
2001 Astros 5104 80.7 2/16 100
1969 Padres 5098 86.5 12/12 75
1993 Rockies 5058 83.3 4/14 87
1978 Brewers 5011 80.5 1/14 116
1977 Expos 4997 79.5 11/12 96
1975 Dodgers 4987 79.8 8/12 96
The Brewers' structure is a bigger problem now than ever before because of the type of pitchers teams use in the late innings, all these hard-throwing right-handed relievers engineered to throw 15 unhittable pitches at a time. The Pirates used four pitchers last night for six shutout innings, all right-handed, and turned a 3-1 deficit into a 4-3 win by keeping the Brewers off the board. This has been an ongoing problem for the Brewers. While they're seventh in the NL in runs scored, they're 14th in runs scored in the seventh through ninth innings. An average offense falls off the charts late in the game, not because they're un-clutch, but because they match up so poorly. No team in baseball has had fewer PAs with the platoon advantage than the Brewers have, and no team in baseball has a lower percentage of PAs with the platoon advantage. It's not all that close.
Fewest PAs with platoon advantage, by percentage
PA Pct.
Brewers 506 36.0%
Angels 633 41.5%
White Sox 582 43.5%
Cardinals 684 47.6%
Braves 702 47.7%
The Brewers have the wrong roster structure for modern MLB. From their standpoint, too many innings are thrown by power right-handed relievers, and not enough by left-handed starters. Especially against them; the Brewers schedule is, relative to the league, heavy on NL Central teams. The NL Central has just four lefty starters -- Locke, Wandy Rodriguez, Jaime Garcia and Travis Wood. (Tony Cingrani will likely be back in the minors once Johnny Cueto returns.)
Again, ya'll should definitely subscribe.
But seriously, this roster is a problem.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 9:41 pm
by Kerb Hohl
Yeah, I think this has been a problem for a little while. Oakland, the Yankees, Boston, etc. are all over major platoons and a lot of other teams at least do it to an extent.
I didn't realize it was this dire in the late innings.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 10:20 pm
by jr lucosa
The Brewers have the wrong roster structure for modern MLB. From their standpoint, too many innings are thrown by power right-handed relievers, and not enough by left-handed starters. Especially against them; the Brewers schedule is, relative to the league, heavy on NL Central teams. The NL Central has just four lefty starters -- Locke, Wandy Rodriguez, Jaime Garcia and Travis Wood. (Tony Cingrani will likely be back in the minors once Johnny Cueto returns.)
Those few lefties that are in the NL Central are no joke either, someone show this to Melvin.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Wed May 15, 2013 11:14 pm
by coolhandluke121
I've been talking about this for years now. People dismissed it as a problem because the Brewers still hit pretty well against righties, but that's not the point. The point is that they could hit significantly better against righties if they just made a few smart personnel moves, all without compromising their ability to crush lefties. They wouldn't have to spend more money than they already are or give up more talent/youth than they get in return for a trade. They could just make a few sideways moves in terms of talent and salary and improve the team by virtue of filling a team need.
For example, they could have traded Hart for prospects and acquired Berkman, Howard, Dunn, or LaRoche easily enough. Those guys aren't all playing well this year, but the point is that you can get guys who had a chance to be just as good as Hart, if not better, without paying through the nose (assuming CWS would have paid some of Dunn's salary). And it would have been harder to manipulate pitching match-ups against the crew.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 12:01 am
by mlloyd10
http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/0 ... ee-brewer/Still think that this might work - If they are interested. Maybe Hart and Weeks for Howard. After this year, howard is owed 3/75. If Phillies eat 30% of that it would be 3/52.5 - Dont know if that's something we should do anyway
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 12:11 am
by trwi7
mlloyd10 wrote:http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/01/26/report-phillies-first-baseman-ryan-howard-could-have-been-a-milwaukee-brewer/
Still think that this might work - If they are interested. Maybe Hart and Weeks for Howard. After this year, howard is owed 3/75. If Phillies eat 30% of that it would be 3/52.5 - Dont know if that's something we should do anyway
Ban
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 12:14 am
by ReasonablySober
mlloyd10 wrote:http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/01/26/report-phillies-first-baseman-ryan-howard-could-have-been-a-milwaukee-brewer/
Still think that this might work - If they are interested. Maybe Hart and Weeks for Howard. After this year, howard is owed 3/75. If Phillies eat 30% of that it would be 3/52.5 - Dont know if that's something we should do anyway
Dear god.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 12:18 am
by mlloyd10
DrugBust wrote:mlloyd10 wrote:http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/01/26/report-phillies-first-baseman-ryan-howard-could-have-been-a-milwaukee-brewer/
Still think that this might work - If they are interested. Maybe Hart and Weeks for Howard. After this year, howard is owed 3/75. If Phillies eat 30% of that it would be 3/52.5 - Dont know if that's something we should do anyway
Dear god.
I wouldn't do that, but was wondering if that possibility is still there
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 1:22 am
by Kerb Hohl
I'm not even sure I'd do it if the Phillies covered 100%. He's not the same player. I think you can only trust him to be a platoon bat at this point and I'm not going to give up any value, even if small (Hart), or bail out on any glimmer of Weeks hope for that. I'd be fine parting with Weeks obviously but not for that.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 2:53 pm
by coolhandluke121
mlloyd10 wrote:http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2012/01/26/report-phillies-first-baseman-ryan-howard-could-have-been-a-milwaukee-brewer/
Still think that this might work - If they are interested. Maybe Hart and Weeks for Howard. After this year, howard is owed 3/75. If Phillies eat 30% of that it would be 3/52.5 - Dont know if that's something we should do anyway
That's way off. Hart has positive value. Howard has 10 times more negative value than Weeks. I'd maybe trade Weeks for Howard if the Phillies paid Howard's salary last 2 years of salary. That's it.
A Weeks/Hart for LaRoche/prospects deal might make sense for the Nats and Brewers. Both teams would have to hope their acquisitions started to play and play like they're capable of, obviously, but to me it's a pretty even risk-reward ratio on both ends, with both teams addressing issues of fit. The Nats have plenty of left-handed hitters, and they're getting a sub-.600 OPS from both their 2B's. The Brewers can play Yuni or Gonzalez at 2b and would potentially be getting a good left-handed bat.
LaRoche for Weeks is pretty equal in terms of contract status and slump status. Hart for prospects makes sense because of Hart's contract status. They might not get much for him, but I still like the idea. Don't care to extend him.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:17 pm
by ReasonablySober
I don't think Hart has any kind of value right now. If he comes back in early June and rakes maybe you get a AAAA kind of guy but that's probably iffy.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Thu May 16, 2013 3:27 pm
by jr lucosa
I think we can possibly get some low ceiling prospect for Corey but nothing of true significance.
He's so streaky at the plate and has been forever that any team trading for him knows they can't just pencil in his numbers because he can easily go 8/50 with 18 K's in his next 50 AB's.
He's also not much of a defender, one thing I'm certain of is that we should never play him in the OF again. He's one of the most frustrating guys I've ever seen in the outfield because for whatever reason (maybe just his height?) he takes forever to pick up a ball, gather and throw from the corner OF. Guys with even moderate speed routinely took extra bases on him in those situations throughout his time in RF. At first I wouldn't even call him a plus defender but I think he's at least respectable there and has the kind of size and length you'd like at first base. I think he's much more appealing to teams there and Aoki > Betansuck/Gonzo anyway.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Sat May 18, 2013 11:31 pm
by gbmb34
The Brewers led the NL in runs last season with virtually the same core.
It's simple: the starting pitching has been awful. That's why they've been struggling.
Re: The Brewers platoon problem
Posted: Sun May 19, 2013 12:34 am
by Kerb Hohl
While I agree they've gotten a bit cold and of course the pitching has been horrible, this is something to consider. Other teams are ahead of us in this game. Hell, Oakland and now maybe the Cubs have created their entire supporting lineup outside of their middle 3 guys out of platoons.