Brewers Game Thread: June

[coolhandluke121]

Even if the Brewers were interested in making moves now, most contending teams prefer to wait longer before making trades so they can be sure of weaknesses for the stretch run. Plus, a number of teams will want to be more sure of a realistic playoff run and early June can be to soon for them to decide that they want to trade prospects for a productive veteran. That's why so few trades typically happen before mid-to late July.

I know we've discussed this a lot but I still don't buy this. I mean, it may be the reason teams don't make trades, but it's a dumb reason. Teams have a very good chance to get an extra couple of months out of a player who's overwhelmingly likely to help them. The idea that they have to wait a few months to see what their needs may be is foolish because they should base moves based on the most reasonable projections, not on what happens over the next 7 weeks. I mean the whole concept of making trades and signing free agents in the offseason is based on that concept. That type of trade or non-trade can't just be a reactionary move based on an injury or an unexpected contribution from a call-up or a waiver acquisition or hot streak. If Jayson Werth has a few good weeks, should the Nats not consider trading for Braun? I think that would be silly. You don't necessarily get a lot of chances to contend and you need to be aggressive when you're in the mix and you have such an obvious way to improve the team.

[Kerb Hohl]

Even if the Brewers were interested in making moves now, most contending teams prefer to wait longer before making trades so they can be sure of weaknesses for the stretch run. Plus, a number of teams will want to be more sure of a realistic playoff run and early June can be to soon for them to decide that they want to trade prospects for a productive veteran. That's why so few trades typically happen before mid-to late July.

I know we've discussed this a lot but I still don't buy this. I mean, it may be the reason teams don't make trades, but it's a dumb reason. Teams have a very good chance to get an extra couple of months out of a player who's overwhelmingly likely to help them. The idea that they have to wait a few months to see what their needs may be is foolish because they should base moves based on the most reasonable projections, not on what happens over the next 7 weeks. I mean the whole concept of making trades and signing free agents in the offseason is based on that concept. That type of trade or non-trade can't just be a reactionary move based on an injury or an unexpected contribution from a call-up or a waiver acquisition or hot streak. If Jayson Werth has a few good weeks, should the Nats not consider trading for Braun? I think that would be silly. You don't necessarily get a lot of chances to contend and you need to be aggressive when you're in the mix and you have such an obvious way to improve the team.

It seems like every article about the deadline mentions Braun/Lucroy. I just saw one recently where they had a quote from an AL executive that claimed he was "surprised" that Lucroy was still with the Brewers. The assumption price was that the asking price must be too high. Hopefully the Brewers don't fly too close to the sun and blow it completely, but I'm OK with that being the case.

[coolhandluke121]

Overall I can't blame these guys for winning but that's the one thing I'm worried about. They have to be very careful not to ask too much. Are you really going to get enough added to the trade package to make up for the extra wins you've gotten all this time? And isn't there something to be said for teams being willing to pay a fair price if they get a few extra months out of the player by acquiring him early in June? I've been operating under the assumption that trade offers are a little weak but if not, then we have a problem. Teams know the Brewers are motivated sellers, but as long as you have a few buyers lined up, you should be able to drive the price up a little, even if you don't get as much as you would if you had more leverage.

[El Duderino]

Even if the Brewers were interested in making moves now, most contending teams prefer to wait longer before making trades so they can be sure of weaknesses for the stretch run. Plus, a number of teams will want to be more sure of a realistic playoff run and early June can be to soon for them to decide that they want to trade prospects for a productive veteran. That's why so few trades typically happen before mid-to late July.

I know we've discussed this a lot but I still don't buy this. I mean, it may be the reason teams don't make trades, but it's a dumb reason. Teams have a very good chance to get an extra couple of months out of a player who's overwhelmingly likely to help them. The idea that they have to wait a few months to see what their needs may be is foolish because they should base moves based on the most reasonable projections, not on what happens over the next 7 weeks. I mean the whole concept of making trades and signing free agents in the offseason is based on that concept. That type of trade or non-trade can't just be a reactionary move based on an injury or an unexpected contribution from a call-up or a waiver acquisition or hot streak. If Jayson Werth has a few good weeks, should the Nats not consider trading for Braun? I think that would be silly. You don't necessarily get a lot of chances to contend and you need to be aggressive when you're in the mix and you have such an obvious way to improve the team.

You may not buy it or think it's dumb, but it is a reality. Just go back and look at each previous seasons and you'll see a few trades here and there in June, but the vast majority happen in July and even most of those happen right around the deadline.

A big reason for this isn't teams like say the Nats or Cubs who are a near lock to make the playoffs. It's more about the wide array of teams who right now sit there barely leading their division or are say 3-4-5 games out of a playoff berth. You are talking about roughly a dozen teams who rightfully so want to see how things go over the next 3-4 weeks before either deciding if they want to trade for a veteran and if so, what exact position to target.

So if you are one of those roughly dozen teams who are only say 5-10 games over .500, you don't want to go trade for a relief pitcher or position player now and give up valuable prospects to do so, and then have your team go into a slump where your playoff chances take a dive. Better to wait until mid-late July where you have a better feel to see if it's worth risking trading away prospects for a veteran.

[El Duderino]

Overall I can't blame these guys for winning but that's the one thing I'm worried about. They have to be very careful not to ask too much. Are you really going to get enough added to the trade package to make up for the extra wins you've gotten all this time?

Obviously as just fans, we have zero clue if teams have already been making offers to Stearns, what players on the team have been targeted, and if so, what the exact offers were. That's why i won't sit here and criticize Stearns for not making any trades yet given i have no idea at all what kind of serious offers he's received, along for what players. That would also be assuming he's even received those type of offers recently.

By the deadline though, i'm confident that Stearns will have made at least 2-3 trades. Between the now tougher schedule which will lead to more losses and him being a smart guy, i'm certain that he knows what stage the franchise is currently in with rebuilding, so he won't be blinded by a sub-.500 team which isn't as bad as some thought they'd be.

If this was the past i'd be a little worried about Attanasio maybe telling his GM to pass on trading productive players for prospects, but at least for this season, i'm not. I think he's given Stearns the keys to do pretty much whatever he wants to do. The only type of trade i could see Attanasio wanting say in would be trading Braun and eating a sizeable chunk of money.

[ReasonablySober]

Giants have had preliminary talks about Braun.

I don't love their farm system, but I would probably do a deal centered around Shaw and Bickford.

[wichmae]

Giants have had preliminary talks about Braun.

I don't love their farm system, but I would probably do a deal centered around Shaw and Bickford.

Im not sure you can get both those guys. Well depending on how much cash is kicked in maybe you could. Shaw, Blackburn, and Marshall would do it for me. I would need to get Shaw out of the deal though.

[coolhandluke121]

You may not buy it or think it's dumb, but it is a reality.

That's what it comes down to. I know it's a reality, but I think it's dumb. Ignoring OBP was a reality for a long time too. When basketball stars get in foul trouble, most coaches sit them too long and get less minutes out of them than they should. It makes no sense. It's just a gross miscalculation in my opinion. Same thing here.

Just go back and look at each previous seasons and you'll see a few trades here and there in June, but the vast majority happen in July and even most of those happen right around the deadline.

A big reason for this isn't teams like say the Nats or Cubs who are a near lock to make the playoffs. It's more about the wide array of teams who right now sit there barely leading their division or are say 3-4-5 games out of a playoff berth. You are talking about roughly a dozen teams who rightfully so want to see how things go over the next 3-4 weeks before either deciding if they want to trade for a veteran and if so, what exact position to target.

So if you are one of those roughly dozen teams who are only say 5-10 games over .500, you don't want to go trade for a relief pitcher or position player now and give up valuable prospects to do so, and then have your team go into a slump where your playoff chances take a dive. Better to wait until mid-late July where you have a better feel to see if it's worth risking trading away prospects for a veteran.

This part seems circular. If you have a need, try to address it. The sooner the better. Maybe not addressing the need is the reason you fall out of playoff contention in the first place? It's just dumb. You could say that you'd rather have more time to evaluate your team no matter when you're thinking of making a trade. That could be justification for sitting on your hands all year round. You should be able to scout and make reasonable projections. Make good projections of how much a player is likely to help your team and pay accordingly in a trade. If the trade happens earlier in the season, they're likely to help your team more. Sure, unexpected things could happen, but you just have to maximize your odds of success. Sitting on your hands until the deadline only to often end up giving up a similar package to what you would have given up all along is just dumb.

And even if you're a playoff lock, every edge you can get over the other good teams is valuable. And if you're making contention decisions based on what happens over the next month, rather than based on the career norms of the players involved in your decision-making, then you're doing it wrong.

[El Duderino]

You know what else would be bad. Be one of those 10-12 teams in that 5-12 games over .500 range in early June and you pull the trigger on a trade for a starting pitcher, relief pitcher, or position player and have to give up valuable prospects to do so. Pay more of a price to make the trade that early.

Then over the next 4-5 weeks your team struggles more than you expect. Maybe injuries strike. Now you are sitting there wishing you had waited longer before making the trade. Wasting prospects on a failed playoff run. Or wishing you had waited to use those prospects at a different position. Besides all of that, come mid-late July, more team are willing to sell, so more options to choose from.

And even if you're a playoff lock, every edge you can get over the other good teams is valuable

Those type of teams like the Cubs and Nats, they have zero reason to pull the trigger on a trade this early unless a trade is simply to good to pass up. Why trade away prospects in early June if you are them when come mid-late July, injuries or other factors could show that other positions were a bigger need for the stretch run?

They have a much larger margin to wait things out to around the deadline than teams like Cleveland, Seattle, Texas, Toronto, St. Louis, Baltimore, Boston, Detroit, KC, LA, etc who any of could easily end up in the playoffs, or finish outside by a number of games. All of those teams also have reason to be cautious this early unless they get an offer just to nice to pass up.

Then again, doesn't matter if it's now or late July, every trade possibility is always about the exact details. Is X player worth me giving up these young players. Trying to find those matches for real is harder that pretend ones online with everything from money, years left on a contract, service time, how sellers view the prospects being offered, how buyers view certain prospects being sought after, etc. It's why we always hear countless more rumors than actual trades.

[DH34Phan]

This 9 game West Coast road trip will either commence our journey to 90+ losses, or we will persevere and hover around .500 as we get closer to the All Star Break.

0-1 with the Giants starting Madison Bumgarner tonight. Doesn't look great for a W tonight, but I am still optimistic that we will win 5 games on this trip. We steal a win tonight or tomorrow from the Giants, take 2 from the Dodgers since we won't see Kershaw, and sweep the 2 game series at Oakland. 5-4 on the trip and coming home 35-37!

This team is overachieving and I think they will continue throughout the rest of the season. Our pitching is pretty good overall and we have a nice mix of youth and veterans in the lineups. Got doses of speed and power also. I will go on record and predict we finish with at least 80 wins. That would be about 10-20 wins above most preseason predictions.

[blazza18]

Lucroy destroyed that ball.

[ReasonablySober]

Lucroy destroyed that ball.

I really can't imagine the Brewers not getting an absolutely ridiculous haul for him.

[bizarro]

Knebel has really come back and brought some nice balance to the bullpen. His 1-2 runs per outing are becoming contagious. I like. Let's get some hauls for Lucroy and Braun and get this top 5 pick train back on track!

[bizarro]

This just in: Barnes is still filthy.

[coolhandluke121]

The Brewers are still an okay team but I'm confident the tough schedule will slowly but surely drive them down in the standings.

Lucroy is one of the most valuable players in the NL when he's totally healthy, and he has been for years now. If the Brewers were borderline contenders I'd have no qualms about them trading a really nice package for Lucroy, and that's saying a lot because I've been as adamant about keeping prospects and rebuilding as anyone over the years. His production and his contract situation are terrific compared to most of the dumb win-now trades teams are always making.

[Tfence92]

Knebel has really come back and brought some nice balance to the bullpen. His 1-2 runs per outing are becoming contagious. I like. Let's get some hauls for Lucroy and Braun and get this top 5 pick train back on track!

Is it bad that I wanted to keep Ramirez and just and Knebel down?

[Tfence92]

The Brewers are still an okay team but I'm confident the tough schedule will slowly but surely drive them down in the standings.

Lucroy is one of the most valuable players in the NL when he's totally healthy, and he has been for years now. If the Brewers were borderline contenders I'd have no qualms about them trading a really nice package for Lucroy, and that's saying a lot because I've been as adamant about keeping prospects and rebuilding as anyone over the years. His production and his contract situation are terrific compared to most of the dumb win-now trades teams are always making.

I remember one of the mlb.com writers talking about trading luc last year, and saying with how good he is combined with his contract, it's almost impossible to get what his actual value is.

He is one of the top catchers in the game, both offensively and defensively, and you get him for a year and a half with such a cheap contract.

Realistically, he is worth not only an elite spec, but maybe two, if not one elite spec and a handful of guys in the top 100. Teams are very hesitant to trade half of their top 10 prospects, but that's what it's going to take.

Hopefully some one gets hurt or REALLY desperate and makes some stupid offer we can't refuse.

[El Duderino]

Lucroy destroyed that ball.

I really can't imagine the Brewers not getting an absolutely ridiculous haul for him.

Need to find a contending team though that not only has a serious hole at catcher, but also has the type of prospects Stearns will covet and will be willing to give up those prospects.

That's why trades can sometimes be harder to pull off than fans wish. Finding the right partner can be tricky in some cases.

[ReasonablySober]

Lucroy destroyed that ball.

I really can't imagine the Brewers not getting an absolutely ridiculous haul for him.

Need to find a contending team though that not only has a serious hole at catcher, but also has the type of prospects Stearns will covet and will be willing to give up those prospects.

That's why trades can sometimes be harder to pull off than fans wish. Finding the right partner can be tricky in some cases.

Good article on that here.

[Iheartfootball]

If the Brewers can get a similar to slightly better haul for Lucroy that they did for Gomez I would be happy. I don't expect two Hader's and a Phillips. Then again, it was Gomez and Fiers. So maybe the same type of haul but just trading Lucroy.

Boy, did Houston screw that up, Melvin work some magic or a combination of both? Both with some luck thrown in is my take away.