Offseason 2016/17 Thread - Scooter Cut

wichmae · Post #101 » by **wichmae** » Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:01 pm

ZiPS projection for Thames.

LUKE23 · Post #102 » by **LUKE23** » Tue Nov 29, 2016 8:02 pm

I really disagree with using the term "upside" to discuss anyone who is over 30. I know he hasn't played in MLB forever, but he's still 30, and he still sucked ass in the 700 MLB PA he did have. I don't consider it a potential high reward signing whatsoever.

wichmae · Post #103 » by **wichmae** » Tue Nov 29, 2016 10:24 pm

Good parallel drawn over on BF in regards to Thames and Nellie Cruz for comparisons. Both had their breakouts at 27. Granted one was on KBO versus MLB. The more I've read in regards to scouting is his entire approach has changed since his last sint here. One he got over there his hands are lower, the leg kick and load is different, and his follow through is all different. Creating the ability to keep the bat in the zone longer will be key to the success here.

Lets not kid ourselves though with what we got here. He's probably going to get every single chance imaginable to hit lefties and play every day but im not sure he's that kind of guy. Like I posted before the money cost is much lower than the opportunity cost.

mlloyd10 · Post #104 » by **mlloyd10** » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:46 pm

I really dont understand people that hate this move. Carter was going to cost $10mil and we know what we have with him and we aren't competing next season. If it works out with Thames, great, if it doesn't, we are still rebuilding and $5 mil per season isn't that bad. If Carter had value around the league, he would have been traded by now. He doesn't.

The SB Nation article says it best

Having a $20 million slugger for a quarter of the cost, ready for the next good Brewers team
Having a $10 million slugger for half of the cost, ready for a team in search of left-handed power at the trading deadline
Having a $5 million slugger for exactly what he’s worth, which at least makes the team that much more watchable

bizarro · Post #105 » by **bizarro** » Wed Nov 30, 2016 6:53 pm

The overwhelming opinion (outside Twirlz) at Brewerfan is this is a worthwhile gamble. I'll wait and see how the remainder of the off-season plays out. I definitely am in favor of moving away from Carter and taking a slight risk on an unknown who improved immensely in a lesser League. The fact he provides OF versatility is interesting.

mlloyd10 · Post #106 » by **mlloyd10** » Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:12 pm

If you can move braun to the Dodgers and get back Cody Bellinger, you move Thames to the OF and you have, at worse, at LH hitting Santana

El Duderino · Post #107 » by **El Duderino** » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:35 pm

wichmae wrote:Good parallel drawn over on BF in regards to Thames and Nellie Cruz for comparisons. Both had their breakouts at 27. Granted one was on KBO versus MLB. The more I've read in regards to scouting is his entire approach has changed since his last sint here. One he got over there his hands are lower, the leg kick and load is different, and his follow through is all different. Creating the ability to keep the bat in the zone longer will be key to the success here.

Lets not kid ourselves though with what we got here. He's probably going to get every single chance imaginable to hit lefties and play every day but im not sure he's that kind of guy. Like I posted before the money cost is much lower than the opportunity cost.

Yea, i'm totally fine with this given the small financial investment in the grand scheme of things.

The team payroll is going to be small the next few years, so even if Thames ends up only being very mediocre or even bad, it's not as if the signing will prevent the team from making other moves in say 2018 or 2019.

On the flip side, if he ends up being pretty good or even better, Thames is a steal at five million per.

Decisions like this are why teams pay scouts and a GM. To watch film of players and make an evaluation. Maybe those involved in this evaluation will be proven to be wrong if Thames ends up being a bust, but i'm more than willing to see how this plays out. They hit big on Villar and potentially Broxton also.

El Duderino · Post #108 » by **El Duderino** » Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:48 pm

LUKE23 wrote:I really disagree with using the term "upside" to discuss anyone who is over 30. I know he hasn't played in MLB forever, but he's still 30, and he still sucked ass in the 700 MLB PA he did have. I don't consider it a potential high reward signing whatsoever.

Given how little Thames will be paid each of the next three seasons, he won't have to put up great numbers to justify his paycheck. Simply being league average would make him underpaid. Anything better than that would make him a steal at five million per.

Whether he can do that remains to be seen, but no way did the Brewers front office sign him based just on inflated Korean numbers. They had to watch lots of film and deemed that they believe he'll be able to hit MLB pitching at least reasonably well, along with playing solid defense at firstbase.

We'll find out if their evaluation was correct, but i like overall what Stearns and his front office team has done since taking over, so i'll give them the benefit of the doubt on Thames for now at least.

Kerb Hohl · Post #109 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Thu Dec 1, 2016 8:05 pm

Also, there really is no bad outcome with Thames. Either he's a steal/fair $ or he's a stealth tank for 2017 and maybe 2018 and bought out/cut by 2019 if he's really that bad.

El Duderino · Post #110 » by **El Duderino** » Thu Dec 1, 2016 9:23 pm

Yea, in today's economic climate in baseball, five million per is near pocket change and doesn't buy much anymore. On top of that, the Brewers payroll the next two years very likely will be among the lowest in the league, especially if Braun gets traded.

WeekapaugGroove · Post #111 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Fri Dec 2, 2016 5:41 pm

Heyman reporting kirk agreed to a deal with the crew. I dont get why they would waste a 40 man spot on him but whatever.

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wichmae · Post #112 » by **wichmae** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 1:02 am

Carter trade not completed and he is FA. Scooter and Kirk get pre-arby deals done and for some dumb reason we signed Cory Gearrin for a bullpen arm.

bizarro · Post #113 » by **bizarro** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 4:35 pm

wichmae wrote:Carter trade not completed and he is FA. Scooter and Kirk get pre-arby deals done and for some dumb reason we signed Cory Gearrin for a bullpen arm.

I don't see anything anywhere re: Gearrin. You sure about that?

wichmae · Post #114 » by **wichmae** » Sat Dec 3, 2016 6:03 pm

bizarro wrote:
wichmae wrote:Carter trade not completed and he is FA. Scooter and Kirk get pre-arby deals done and for some dumb reason we signed Cory Gearrin for a bullpen arm.

I don't see anything anywhere re: Gearrin. You sure about that?

It was Heyman but he since deleted the tweet and corrected it.

Read on Twitter

Post #115 » by **ReasonablySober** » Mon Dec 5, 2016 4:40 pm

I'd be really surprised if the Brewers didn't make a couple significant moves over the next couple weeks.

Rumor is the Dodgers have real interest in Cutch. I'm hoping they can make a deal happen and a suitor for Braun goes away. If he's gonna get moved I hope it's to a team with a farm system that better matches the Brewers' needs.

Could also see Junior Guerra go this week too.

wichmae · Post #116 » by **wichmae** » Mon Dec 5, 2016 11:18 pm

My prediction is we trade Scooter and sign a veteran utility guy like Aybar or Rosales. Coghlan makes a little sense too. No other moves I think happen.

I just dont feel like Stearns has to really do anything right now. He can wait this out a little bit. Scooter I hope goes and we look at a stop gap like Plouffe or maybe even Aaron Hill back at third. Move Villar to second and just roll with it.

Sounds like the price (Giolito and Robles) on Cutch is sky high according to Heyman and the market is cooling. That may be the saving grace for a Braun trade. I also could see other teams liking Chase Anderson.

crkone · Post #117 » by **crkone** » Tue Dec 6, 2016 2:09 pm

Read on Twitter

WeekapaugGroove · Post #118 » by **WeekapaugGroove** » Tue Dec 6, 2016 3:46 pm

Id be shocked if a starting pitcher isnt moved in the next week.

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Post #119 » by **ReasonablySober** » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:15 pm

Moncada (#1 overall prospect in baseball), Kopesh (top 100), and other prospects for Sale. God damn. Wow.

wichmae · Post #120 » by **wichmae** » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:22 pm

Chicago made out like bandits on this one. I liked the Nats deal but if you can get Moncada its a no brainer.