ImageImage

Offseason 2016/17 Thread - Scooter Cut

Moderators: paulpressey25, MickeyDavis

User avatar
El Duderino
RealGM
Posts: 19,633
And1: 971
Joined: May 30, 2005
Location: Working on pad level

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#401 » by El Duderino » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:38 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:The value of Guerra is a complete ****. The assumed value is "pretty good" pitcher that has 6 years of control but you know he's a bit older.

Is a team going to give up a top 100 prospect? Probably not, but maybe?

Once you get beyond that, you're basically proposing getting a guy that you hope is a "pretty good" player with 6 years of control but is no sure thing for...a guy that is more of a sure thing just a bit older.

I'm obviously a fan of trading him, but the value offered in return will be the fascinating part of this.


Yea this Guerra situation is very intriguing to me. If hypothetically Guerra has a really good first half of the season and the Brewers shopped him, i really don't know what kind of offers Stearns would get.

Starting pitching is in such demand though and especially cheap starting pitching that i do believe at that point Guerra would bring at least a top 100 prospect, but there is a big difference in value between say a top 10 prospect and a guy in that 60-100 range. A prospect in the that 60-100 range along with a throw in player or two doesn't strike me as unrealistic if Guerra had a really good first half of the season and also given that he will make pocket change for awhile.

I get that he's older, but very cheap and productive starting pitching is rarely available. Here's to hoping Guerra can post a low 3 ERA or better in the first half of the season with quality secondary numbers.
User avatar
WeekapaugGroove
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,386
And1: 2,141
Joined: Feb 07, 2010

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#402 » by WeekapaugGroove » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:53 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:I expect the bullpen to suck. You can only hope for people to emerge out of nowhere so many times before the law of averages catches up with you.

As far as I care, they can trade Guerra tomorrow if they get anything worthwhile in return, even if it's just bullpen prospects. Roll with Peralta, Nelson, Garza, Anderson, and Davies in the rotation and see if any of them can have a good couple of months and be flipped at the trade deadline.


See I think it's a better strategy to roll the dice and hope Guerra repeats his numbers from last year and teams start to take him seriously and not just a small sample size fluke. Better chance that happens and maybe you land a nice prospect in July than to sell for whatever they can now just so they can put Anderson in the rotation. IMO Anderson is trash and I wouldn't care if they just cut him.

I'm not sure if you were implying that you would trade Davies if he has a couple of good months but if you are I don't agree with that approach. Of course ANYONE is available for the right price but of all the possible guys in the Brewers rotation he's the one that might be still in it when they want to compete. I think he's a pretty good pitcher and might be a valuable mid of the rotation guy for a decade.
Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming Wow! What a Ride!-H.S.T.
User avatar
coolhandluke121
General Manager
Posts: 7,517
And1: 1,171
Joined: Sep 23, 2007

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#403 » by coolhandluke121 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:02 pm

WeekapaugGroove wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
As far as I care, they can trade Guerra tomorrow if they get anything worthwhile in return, even if it's just bullpen prospects. Roll with Peralta, Nelson, Garza, Anderson, and Davies in the rotation and see if any of them can have a good couple of months and be flipped at the trade deadline.


See I think it's a better strategy to roll the dice and hope Guerra repeats his numbers from last year and teams start to take him seriously and not just a small sample size fluke. Better chance that happens and maybe you land a nice prospect in July than to sell for whatever they can now just so they can put Anderson in the rotation. IMO Anderson is trash and I wouldn't care if they just cut him.

I'm not sure if you were implying that you would trade Davies if he has a couple of good months but if you are I don't agree with that approach. Of course ANYONE is available for the right price but of all the possible guys in the Brewers rotation he's the one that might be still in it when they want to compete. I think he's a pretty good pitcher and might be a valuable mid of the rotation guy for a decade.


I'm not convinced there's a better than 50% chance he improves his trade value. There's a significant chance that his trade value is at its peak right now. And if there is a chance he will improve his trade value, interested teams will be considering the same possibility and might be eager to make an offer before the price goes up. If they gamble wrong, it's a win for the Brewers.

Davies is fine, but it all depends on offers. I see no reason to hold on to anyone too tightly. Even a guy like Anderson or Nelson is capable of eating some innings for a team that loses a couple starters to injury, but that's only if you let them pitch and they prove to be adequate in the meantime.
When you're spinning your wheels in mud, sometimes you have to put the car in reverse. If you refuse to do so on principle, you're an idiot.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,754
And1: 816
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#404 » by Kerb Hohl » Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:25 pm

I am by no means a huge Guerra fan or anything, but unless Guerra massively regresses very fast, you shouldn't just "take what you can get."

He looks like a mid-rotation pitcher with 6 years of team control. I don't even care if he's on the older end of things as he doesn't seem to be a high velocity guy.

If nobody is offering anything of substance, having 6 years of a cheap, #3-#4 starter is not bad. I fully understand the rebuild, but you'd still have him 2 or 3 years from now when you are hopefully competing.

Maybe you strike it lucky with a prospect, but if nobody is offering what seems to be a sure bet prospect, why wouldn't you want to just keep Guerra? A non-top prospect is a gamble and you're not sure he'll even make the majors. Guerra is a gamble, but if it seems like he legitimately is a cheap, mid-rotation starter...that's basically what you were hoping the prospect would be anyways in said [non-elite] prospect's best case scenario.
Thunder Muscle
RealGM
Posts: 12,995
And1: 569
Joined: Feb 18, 2005
Location: Wisconsin
       

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#405 » by Thunder Muscle » Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:35 pm

How off is my roster assumption...

SP (no particular order): Guerra*, Nelson, Davies, Garza, Peralta
RP: Feliz (Closer), Anderson (Long Relief), Torres, Knebel, Marinez, Cravy, Suter.
OF: Braun*, Broxton*, Santana*, Kirk N.
IF: Shaw*, Arcia*, VIllar*, Thames*, Aguilar.
C: Bandy, Pina*
Utility: Scooter, Perez
* - Opening Day Starter

I wouldn't be shocked if Garza gets the long relief role and Anderson starts, or Peralta for that matter. I honestly don't know if Milone does relief pitching, if so, he could maybe get Suter's spot.
TBD
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 65,497
And1: 7,608
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:
       

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#406 » by ReasonablySober » Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:39 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:I am by no means a huge Guerra fan or anything, but unless Guerra massively regresses very fast, you shouldn't just "take what you can get."

He looks like a mid-rotation pitcher with 6 years of team control. I don't even care if he's on the older end of things as he doesn't seem to be a high velocity guy.

If nobody is offering anything of substance, having 6 years of a cheap, #3-#4 starter is not bad. I fully understand the rebuild, but you'd still have him 2 or 3 years from now when you are hopefully competing.

Maybe you strike it lucky with a prospect, but if nobody is offering what seems to be a sure bet prospect, why wouldn't you want to just keep Guerra? A non-top prospect is a gamble and you're not sure he'll even make the majors. Guerra is a gamble, but if it seems like he legitimately is a cheap, mid-rotation starter...that's basically what you were hoping the prospect would be anyways in said [non-elite] prospect's best case scenario.


I was reading Brew Crew Ball, and they were making the case that it wouldn't be out of line to require two top 100 prospects and a third. I think that's probably a tall order, but like you said, you could be looking at a #3 for a few more years and a backend guy for the last couple.

He's a tough case. You don't ever see 31 year olds with this little mileage have that kind of success.
User avatar
El Duderino
RealGM
Posts: 19,633
And1: 971
Joined: May 30, 2005
Location: Working on pad level

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#407 » by El Duderino » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:25 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
I'm not convinced there's a better than 50% chance he improves his trade value. There's a significant chance that his trade value is at its peak right now. And if there is a chance he will improve his trade value, interested teams will be considering the same possibility and might be eager to make an offer before the price goes up. If they gamble wrong, it's a win for the Brewers.

Davies is fine, but it all depends on offers. I see no reason to hold on to anyone too tightly. Even a guy like Anderson or Nelson is capable of eating some innings for a team that loses a couple starters to injury, but that's only if you let them pitch and they prove to be adequate in the meantime.


Guerra only has 20 big league starts under his belt. If i'm another team looking for pitching, i wouldn't offer much for Guerra until i saw him have success again this year to show last year wasn't mainly a fluke of a guy coming out and pitching well against hitters who have never seen him before.

That said, none of us here have any clue as to what kind of offers may or may not have been offered so far to Stearns for Guerra. If offers though were small change because teams want to see him have success again this year, no way would i just jump at any offer to cash him in.

Starting pitching is at such a premium, especially cheap starting pitching that taking back low value talent now vs rolling the dice that Guerra pitches well again this year simply isn't something i do because if he does produce again, he becomes an in demand asset.
User avatar
coolhandluke121
General Manager
Posts: 7,517
And1: 1,171
Joined: Sep 23, 2007

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#408 » by coolhandluke121 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:31 pm

Who was it that said Guerra is throwing too hard and will have arm trouble? I tend to agree with that. If not that, there's also a good chance that his success was just a fluke. I guess I'm more inclined than most of you to think he will come back to earth in a hurry this year and be worth nothing.
When you're spinning your wheels in mud, sometimes you have to put the car in reverse. If you refuse to do so on principle, you're an idiot.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,754
And1: 816
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#409 » by Kerb Hohl » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:46 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:Who was it that said Guerra is throwing too hard and will have arm trouble? I tend to agree with that. If not that, there's also a good chance that his success was just a fluke. I guess I'm more inclined than most of you to think he will come back to earth in a hurry this year and be worth nothing.


Weigh that with the chances of some middling prospect amounting to anything in the majors. We need a haul or it's not worth the risk is all I'm saying. You know that I'm generally a "get what you can before the value dries up" type of fan, but you have to be careful here to not trade away the next Marco Estrada with 6 years of control for Luis Sardinas.

I'm definitely on the bearish side of Guerra. I'm not suggesting that he's going to be a great pitcher. The general fan reaction of "get what you can!" for him is dangerous here, though. The risk of holding on to him for a bit is that he regresses and you get nothing. If Stearns is dead certain that he is nothing special, then I'd trade him tomorrow. If not, you have to hold out for great value. Why wouldn't you?
Outlander
Sophomore
Posts: 224
And1: 36
Joined: Feb 14, 2014

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#410 » by Outlander » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:48 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:I am by no means a huge Guerra fan or anything, but unless Guerra massively regresses very fast, you shouldn't just "take what you can get."

He looks like a mid-rotation pitcher with 6 years of team control. I don't even care if he's on the older end of things as he doesn't seem to be a high velocity guy.

If nobody is offering anything of substance, having 6 years of a cheap, #3-#4 starter is not bad. I fully understand the rebuild, but you'd still have him 2 or 3 years from now when you are hopefully competing.

Maybe you strike it lucky with a prospect, but if nobody is offering what seems to be a sure bet prospect, why wouldn't you want to just keep Guerra? A non-top prospect is a gamble and you're not sure he'll even make the majors. Guerra is a gamble, but if it seems like he legitimately is a cheap, mid-rotation starter...that's basically what you were hoping the prospect would be anyways in said [non-elite] prospect's best case scenario.


I was reading Brew Crew Ball, and they were making the case that it wouldn't be out of line to require two top 100 prospects and a third. I think that's probably a tall order, but like you said, you could be looking at a #3 for a few more years and a backend guy for the last couple.

He's a tough case. You don't ever see 31 year olds with this little mileage have that kind of success.

The author of that article is probably a little biased since he is such a Junior Guerra fan. The Brewers received two top 100 prospects and a third for Lucroy and Jeffress so I doubt Guerra nets that.
User avatar
coolhandluke121
General Manager
Posts: 7,517
And1: 1,171
Joined: Sep 23, 2007

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#411 » by coolhandluke121 » Thu Mar 23, 2017 8:52 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:Who was it that said Guerra is throwing too hard and will have arm trouble? I tend to agree with that. If not that, there's also a good chance that his success was just a fluke. I guess I'm more inclined than most of you to think he will come back to earth in a hurry this year and be worth nothing.


Weigh that with the chances of some middling prospect amounting to anything in the majors. We need a haul or it's not worth the risk is all I'm saying. You know that I'm generally a "get what you can before the value dries up" type of fan, but you have to be careful here to not trade away the next Marco Estrada with 6 years of control for Luis Sardinas.


Let the record show I pretty much always stuck up for Marco. The idea that it's overwhelmingly a seller's market is always worth considering. I see a Wily career trajectory as slightly more likely for JG but who knows.

We do know that it's not their style to rush into trades if they don't get an offer they really like, even when most of us would have traded a guy sooner. And those trades have often worked out quite well.
When you're spinning your wheels in mud, sometimes you have to put the car in reverse. If you refuse to do so on principle, you're an idiot.
User avatar
wichmae
RealGM
Posts: 15,614
And1: 722
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: Milwaukee

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#412 » by wichmae » Thu Mar 23, 2017 9:01 pm

Guerra getting shelled right now.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums
User avatar
Gianstoppable
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,855
And1: 466
Joined: Jan 07, 2015
     

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#413 » by Gianstoppable » Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:58 pm

https://brewers.mlblogs.com/milwaukee-brewers-announce-brew-crew-bar-156e5c9caa4#.qguts6fvp

Sweet but I hope it ends up getting bigger. I know its hard to miss out on all that parking money but fan experience would be great.
User avatar
Turk Nowitzki
RealGM
Posts: 22,612
And1: 2,875
Joined: Feb 26, 2010
Location: on the Hellmouth
     

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#414 » by Turk Nowitzki » Fri Mar 24, 2017 6:03 am

Look like the Brewers made a very wise decision to trade Will Smith when they had the chance.

Read on Twitter
User avatar
ReasonablySober
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 65,497
And1: 7,608
Joined: Dec 02, 2001
Location: Cheap dinner. Watch basketball. Bone down.
Contact:
       

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#415 » by ReasonablySober » Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:23 pm

User avatar
M-C-G
RealGM
Posts: 13,955
And1: 4,246
Joined: Jan 13, 2013
     

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#416 » by M-C-G » Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:31 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:I am by no means a huge Guerra fan or anything, but unless Guerra massively regresses very fast, you shouldn't just "take what you can get."

He looks like a mid-rotation pitcher with 6 years of team control. I don't even care if he's on the older end of things as he doesn't seem to be a high velocity guy.

If nobody is offering anything of substance, having 6 years of a cheap, #3-#4 starter is not bad. I fully understand the rebuild, but you'd still have him 2 or 3 years from now when you are hopefully competing.

Maybe you strike it lucky with a prospect, but if nobody is offering what seems to be a sure bet prospect, why wouldn't you want to just keep Guerra? A non-top prospect is a gamble and you're not sure he'll even make the majors. Guerra is a gamble, but if it seems like he legitimately is a cheap, mid-rotation starter...that's basically what you were hoping the prospect would be anyways in said [non-elite] prospect's best case scenario.


I was reading Brew Crew Ball, and they were making the case that it wouldn't be out of line to require two top 100 prospects and a third. I think that's probably a tall order, but like you said, you could be looking at a #3 for a few more years and a backend guy for the last couple.

He's a tough case. You don't ever see 31 year olds with this little mileage have that kind of success.


Packaging him with a guy like Braun, so the other team is getting two high quality players for a good price on the aggregate should land you a very big fish prospect, take back some salary like we did for Aaron Hill which should net you another prospect coming back seems to make some sense.

I don't follow the minors, so this might sound way off, but if you move Braun and Guerra to the Dodgers for Bellinger, Andre Either and some other decent prospect, maybe that is an option that could be on the table.

Something special is happening — and it’s not happening because of a couple of lucky bounces. It’s happening because my guys are for real.

JABARI PARKER

User avatar
WeekapaugGroove
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,386
And1: 2,141
Joined: Feb 07, 2010

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#417 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:25 pm

Thames playing RF today. Id say that's a pretty sign that Aguilar is making the team.

Sent from my SM-G930V using RealGM mobile app
Life should not be a journey to the grave with the intention of arriving safely in a pretty and well preserved body, but rather to skid in broadside in a cloud of smoke, thoroughly used up, totally worn out, and loudly proclaiming Wow! What a Ride!-H.S.T.
User avatar
wichmae
RealGM
Posts: 15,614
And1: 722
Joined: Feb 22, 2005
Location: Milwaukee

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#418 » by wichmae » Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:03 pm

I have two extra opening day tickets. $37 face value. section 440 row 3 if anyone is interested. My brother and sister in law cannot go now. Just want face value.
User avatar
Kerb Hohl
RealGM
Posts: 23,754
And1: 816
Joined: Jun 17, 2005
Location: Hmmmm...how many 1sts would Jason Richardson cost...?

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#419 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:24 am

The Rangers have been looking into Wily Peralta. They need a starter and know we have too many [mediocre] pitchers for our rotation.

I feel like he'd be a gas can against lefties in Arlington...but I have some strange fear that under different tutelage, he will suddenly figure it out elsewhere...I don't even know why.
User avatar
El Duderino
RealGM
Posts: 19,633
And1: 971
Joined: May 30, 2005
Location: Working on pad level

Re: Offseason 2016/17 Thread (Feliz and Joba signed) 

Post#420 » by El Duderino » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:41 am

Kerb Hohl wrote:The Rangers have been looking into Wily Peralta. They need a starter and know we have too many [mediocre] pitchers for our rotation.

I feel like he'd be a gas can against lefties in Arlington...but I have some strange fear that under different tutelage, he will suddenly figure it out elsewhere...I don't even know why.


Well, he does have a great power arm, just to little ability to command his pitches.

Return to Milwaukee Brewers