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Trade: Thornburg to Boston

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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#21 » by coolhandluke121 » Tue Dec 6, 2016 5:08 pm

Upon further inspection this is awesome. Sell high on relievers is my motto. The fact that the return fits in great is just a bonus. Stearns doing work. Looking forward to Villar/Arcia/Shaw with Hernan backing up all 3 of them. Perfect role for everyone. Scooter can go for an AAAA reliever or they might have roster space for another backup middle infielder considering how many positions Hernan can play.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#22 » by FNQ » Tue Dec 6, 2016 5:28 pm

sold high on a CP who's going through arbitration soon. Fantastic trade. Pitchers' values fluctuate year to year and you may have sold this guy at the peak value of his career.

I wish A's would do more trades like this. I think Brewers will have no problem inflating and then selling Shaw as well, unless they want to keep him beyond 2019. A+ for the Brewers
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#23 » by wichmae » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:00 pm

Have not seen this in this thread yet but were getting a PTBNL as well. My guess is its someone who is rule 5 eligible and we have to wait and see after draft.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#24 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:12 pm

wichmae wrote:Have not seen this in this thread yet but were getting a PTBNL as well. My guess is its someone who is rule 5 eligible and we have to wait and see after draft.


Or cash.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#25 » by Thunder Muscle » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:12 pm

jakecronus8 wrote:I'm not exactly thrilled. Feel like we could have gotten a better prospect if we consolidated. Don't understand this package. We didn't even get a top 10 guy from them for one of the best relievers in baseball.


Thought I saw Dubon was their #7 prospect per Baseball America.

I think it's a good haul for a good but not elite reliever.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#26 » by Thunder Muscle » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:13 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
wichmae wrote:Have not seen this in this thread yet but were getting a PTBNL as well. My guess is its someone who is rule 5 eligible and we have to wait and see after draft.


Or cash.


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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#27 » by Turk Nowitzki » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:15 pm

Well, nobody is Boston is going to care about this trade anymore.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#28 » by crkone » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:15 pm

Thunder Muscle wrote:
jakecronus8 wrote:I'm not exactly thrilled. Feel like we could have gotten a better prospect if we consolidated. Don't understand this package. We didn't even get a top 10 guy from them for one of the best relievers in baseball.


Thought I saw Dubon was their #7 prospect per Baseball America.

I think it's a good haul for a good but not elite reliever.



http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=mil

They upticked his power so he's slotted now as #9 in the pipeline!

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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#29 » by wichmae » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:23 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
wichmae wrote:Have not seen this in this thread yet but were getting a PTBNL as well. My guess is its someone who is rule 5 eligible and we have to wait and see after draft.


Or cash.

Cash is probably if the player gets selected. Its rather common for PTBNL's pre rule 5
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#30 » by M-C-G » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:43 pm

I don't follow the minor league prospects much any more, so I come here and BF to get a sense of how you guys like it. Looks like Stearns came through again? Need that guy running the Bucks.

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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#31 » by humanrefutation » Tue Dec 6, 2016 6:50 pm

I mean, one of the huge advantages to waiting on Thornburg is that teams pay an immense premium for high-quality relievers at the deadline. I mean, look at what the Yankees got for Miller and Chapman.

Of course, the risk is that Thornburg tanks in 2017, which isn't uncommon for relievers. But, if he shows the same stuff, I have no doubt we would have gotten a better package of prospects if we waited.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#32 » by trwi7 » Tue Dec 6, 2016 7:13 pm

This is difficult. It's a good haul for Thornburg now but if he had another half season/full season like he had last year, we could've gotten a lot more in the summer/next winter for him. Of course relievers are so volatile, especially guys with an injury history like Thornburg.

Solid deal. Don't think an extreme flyball pitcher like Thornburg is going to fare very well with the short porch in Boston.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#33 » by Iheartfootball » Tue Dec 6, 2016 7:17 pm

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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#34 » by wichmae » Tue Dec 6, 2016 9:16 pm

trwi7 wrote:This is difficult. It's a good haul for Thornburg now but if he had another half season/full season like he had last year, we could've gotten a lot more in the summer/next winter for him. Of course relievers are so volatile, especially guys with an injury history like Thornburg.

Solid deal. Don't think an extreme flyball pitcher like Thornburg is going to fare very well with the short porch in Boston.

Its really hard to judge a potential return for him if you hold because the recent deals have exploded the value and Thurny does have the red flags. He's 28(29 in Sept), has an injury history, and going into arb year 1.

I like the trade and really hope Shaw works out. He also is an older guy (27 in April) and has not had impressive splits in the majors. in MiLB he's shown the ability to hit lefties and might just need the opportunity. in 500 AB's last season he was a 2.2 WAR player.

These are the types of players we need to take chances on. Not the Kirk's, Geltz's, and Blake Parker's.

Here are the top Red Sox avail in the Rule 5. Our PTBNL may very well be in this list.
Danny Bethea, Ty Buttrey, Jamie Callahan, Carlos Coste, Ryan Court, Allen Craig, Jacob Dahlstrand, Jake DePew, Jake Drehoff, Jeff Driskel, Jeffry Fernandez, Pat Goetze, Reed Gragnani, Taylor Grover, Justin Haley, Juan Hernandez, Dedgar Jimenez, Raiwinson Lameda, Anyelo LeClerc, Tzu-Wei Lin, Deiner Lopez, Austin Maddox, Mike McCarthy, Daniel McGrath, Simon Mercedes, Mike Meyers, Mike Miller, Edgar Olmos, Yankory Pimentel, Tim Roberson, Javier Rodriguez, Jake Romanski, Dioscar Romero, Ramses Rosario, Jose Sermo, Teddy Stankiewicz, Aneury Tavarez, German Taveras, JT Watkins, Jordan Weems, Jantzen Witte
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#35 » by El Duderino » Wed Dec 7, 2016 12:48 am

coolhandluke121 wrote:Upon further inspection this is awesome. Sell high on relievers is my motto. The fact that the return fits in great is just a bonus. Stearns doing work. Looking forward to Villar/Arcia/Shaw with Hernan backing up all 3 of them. Perfect role for everyone. Scooter can go for an AAAA reliever or they might have roster space for another backup middle infielder considering how many positions Hernan can play.


I'm totally fine trading Thornburg, i just question if Stearns waited until the trade deadline, he could have done better prospects wise. Granted, there is always the risk that Thornburg could have any type of arm issue and torpedo his trade value.

As for the two prospects, they fit Stearns MO of the type of players he often targets. Guys with tools coming off a promising season, but not enough track record to really prove their prospect status.

Doing this involves risk for both sides.

Pennington is like so many A ball hard throwers who need to learn command and polish of secondary pitches. It's a long climb to the majors for those types and many more end up failing to make it than who do. Maybe for the Brewers we catch a break and Pennington becomes one of those who make it, but he's the exact type of pitcher contenders often throw into trades, knowing the odds are against regretting doing so.

Dubon is a skinny kid who had a very good half of a season in AA at a young age. Whether that was something he can repeat is unknown, but the type of player Stearns seems to like to target.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#36 » by wichmae » Wed Dec 7, 2016 1:51 am

Dubon really profiles like the guy we targeted (Delvin Perez) with this last pick until the PED stuff came out about him.

My hope is Shaw can be a mainstay at third since we took him versus asking for lower level guys.
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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#37 » by bizarro » Wed Dec 7, 2016 5:57 am

http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/11/podcast-ep-109-alex-speier-on-ranking.html?m=1

Don't believe this has been posted (via our informed community at brewerfan). 27 minute mark to roughly 33 is all Dubon talk. Lots to like in here from several angles and definitely a Stearns pick-up special.
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Re: RE: Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#38 » by WeekapaugGroove » Wed Dec 7, 2016 3:23 pm

bizarro wrote:http://news.soxprospects.com/2016/11/podcast-ep-109-alex-speier-on-ranking.html?m=1

Don't believe this has been posted (via our informed community at brewerfan). 27 minute mark to roughly 33 is all Dubon talk. Lots to like in here from several angles and definitely a Stearns pick-up special.

Thanks. Just listened and combined with everything Ive read i like dubon. Seems like hes got a shot to be a solid big leaguer. I like that he gives them some options if a guy like villar crashes back to earth or if god forbid arcia busts. Plus if everyone pans out they should have plenty of trade chips to swing a deal for an impact player.

The brewers are certainty stacked with talent up the middle so baring a complete disaster they should be solid there once this rebuild is finished.

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Re: RE: Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#39 » by WeekapaugGroove » Wed Dec 7, 2016 3:57 pm

El Duderino wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:Upon further inspection this is awesome. Sell high on relievers is my motto. The fact that the return fits in great is just a bonus. Stearns doing work. Looking forward to Villar/Arcia/Shaw with Hernan backing up all 3 of them. Perfect role for everyone. Scooter can go for an AAAA reliever or they might have roster space for another backup middle infielder considering how many positions Hernan can play.


I'm totally fine trading Thornburg, i just question if Stearns waited until the trade deadline, he could have done better prospects wise. Granted, there is always the risk that Thornburg could have any type of arm issue and torpedo his trade value.

As for the two prospects, they fit Stearns MO of the type of players he often targets. Guys with tools coming off a promising season, but not enough track record to really prove their prospect status.

Doing this involves risk for both sides.

Pennington is like so many A ball hard throwers who need to learn command and polish of secondary pitches. It's a long climb to the majors for those types and many more end up failing to make it than who do. Maybe for the Brewers we catch a break and Pennington becomes one of those who make it, but he's the exact type of pitcher contenders often throw into trades, knowing the odds are against regretting doing so.

Dubon is a skinny kid who had a very good half of a season in AA at a young age. Whether that was something he can repeat is unknown, but the type of player Stearns seems to like to target.

I think your point about risk both ways is true. Thorburgs value would have risen with a good start to 2017 but on the flip side if Pennington and dubon would have continued to produce to start the year their values would be higher mid season too. From a risk reward standpoint im fine cashing in on Thornburg now because to me the risk he gets hurt or sucks and his value drops to nothing out weighs the potential reward of getting a little better package if he was good.

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Re: Trade: Thornburg to Boston 

Post#40 » by wichmae » Wed Dec 7, 2016 4:15 pm

Dubon will probably go to AA with Ortega getting the bump to AAA. Im guessing Yadiel will be the utility guy with Hernan on the big club. Going to be really intriguing to watch the second base combo with him and Javier Betancourt who will surely repeat AA after a crap season.

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