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Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers

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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#21 » by wichmae » Wed May 10, 2017 7:39 pm

dbrodz7 wrote:
Iheartfootball wrote:Exactly. I'm not complaining about his bat because his glove and range are amazing. Dude is fun to watch.


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I think it's important to remember he is 22 years old. Most MLB players are not in the big leagues even at 22 years old.

Correct. Its actually the average age for AA

(correction its actually high A. average age for high A was 22.4 years old)
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#22 » by Turk Nowitzki » Wed May 10, 2017 9:13 pm

I see Villar found the bench tonight.

Good
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#23 » by dbrodz7 » Thu May 11, 2017 12:45 am

I was at the game last night and boo'd so loud after the pickoff with Thames up that Counsell had no choice.
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#24 » by Iheartfootball » Thu May 11, 2017 2:21 am

I really underestimated how much I would like this team. They are fun. Play hard.

Except Villar. Too many mental mistakes.


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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#25 » by Iheartfootball » Thu May 11, 2017 2:29 am

Who's this BOS reliever with a Jheri curl?


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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#26 » by Iheartfootball » Thu May 11, 2017 2:30 am

Who's this BOS reliever with a Jheri curl?


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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#27 » by coolhandluke121 » Thu May 11, 2017 2:33 pm

Turk Nowitzki wrote:I see Villar found the bench tonight.

Good


His mental make-up is as much a part of the package as his physical talent. That's what I think a lot of people missed in the heated arguments about trading him this off-season. He's one of the biggest clowns in baseball.
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#28 » by Kerb Hohl » Thu May 11, 2017 2:34 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
Turk Nowitzki wrote:I see Villar found the bench tonight.

Good


His mental make-up is as much a part of the package as his physical talent. That's what I think a lot of people missed in the heated arguments about trading him this off-season. He's one of the biggest clowns in baseball.


Is there anyone that said they wouldn't have traded him this offseason?
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#29 » by coolhandluke121 » Thu May 11, 2017 3:12 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
Turk Nowitzki wrote:I see Villar found the bench tonight.

Good


His mental make-up is as much a part of the package as his physical talent. That's what I think a lot of people missed in the heated arguments about trading him this off-season. He's one of the biggest clowns in baseball.


Is there anyone that said they wouldn't have traded him this offseason?


I think RS and Duderino were pretty adamant about it. Of course it all depends on what they could have gotten, but they were pretty sure he was worth more to the Brewers because teams would be reluctant to give up much for him after one good year, whereas people like twirlie, wichmae, and myself were adamant that they should aggressively try to trade him and should not assess a fair return according to his numbers last year but rather according to the same rightful skepticism other teams would have in trading for him. In other words, his expected value, rather than his past value in a fluke-ish season with a ridiculously high BABIP.

I never understand that logic in any trade talk. "You won't get fair value for him, so you may as well keep him." It's just as likely that you're wrong about fair value, if not more so. By keeping him, you're assuming the same risk/reward ratio anybody else would in trading for him. You're sacrificing the exact same trade package they'd be willing to give up for him. You definitely should be in the driver's seat for evaluating his future better than teams trading for him, but that can just as easily break either way; there's no reason it should lead you to err on the side of keeping your guys all the time. That's homer-ism.

You have just as much of an advantage in seeing his flaws as in seeing his promise, and that's especially releveant in the case of Villar. A package far beneath what you'd normally expect from a guy who had a year like he did last season, but far better than a worst-case scenario that appears more and more likely with every passing week (and was already pretty likely to begin with based on a closer inspection of his numbers and his decisions last year) is a damn good return.
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#30 » by Kerb Hohl » Thu May 11, 2017 3:41 pm

Yeah, I would have wanted to trade him if a good offer was on the table. Reading your response has jogged my memory though that if the offer wasn't great (and it probably wasn't) then you hold tight.

Almost every trade the Brewers have made has been made at or near the right time. I think you were in the camp that was in favor of dumping Lucroy earlier.

Somewhat related, but we laugh at the return we got in the Segura trade but it may be time to have the talk that we traded away a star that had something mechanically wrong in Milwaukee. Crushing the ball in Arizona is one thing, but he seems to be following it up in Seattle.

Villar's BABIP is .260 this year and his career average is .340 so there's some optimism that he'll get on a hot streak and get his numbers inflated close to where he's been in the past. His BABIP last year actually was only .370, which he had matched for several periods of time in Houston. The valuation from around the league for Villar last year given the skepticism you point out was probably 2-3 guys that may never break into the majors or another Jonathan Villar-type prospect.

Why not wait it out if the offers aren't great? If Villar crashes and burns, he's a part of your stealth tank. Trade him for the skeptics' package and you probably just churn the wheels with a guy that could have an exciting season like Jonathan Villar or an underwhelming package that never makes it to the majors.
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#31 » by coolhandluke121 » Thu May 11, 2017 4:18 pm

It all depends on a bunch of stuff we don't know about what was offered. Same goes for whether there were similar offers for Lucroy weeks earlier than when he was actually dealt.

My arguments in favor of trading Villar are mostly just an expression of a desire to see him traded for what I speculated would likely be on offer at the time, but it's all speculation. It's also because I consider it slightly less likely than most people to work out favorably if they keep him.

Also, I hate his base-running. Just hate it. Makes me want to throw things at the screen. Ultimately, this is a fan experience, and that's definitely not what I'm looking for in the experience.
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#32 » by M-C-G » Thu May 11, 2017 5:57 pm

Iheartfootball wrote:I really underestimated how much I would like this team. They are fun. Play hard.

Except Villar. Too many mental mistakes.


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I haven't watched as many games as I normally do, but I was thinking the same thing. They are fun, they play hard and old "Send-em" Cedar over their at third certainly leads to some additional entertainment

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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#33 » by M-C-G » Thu May 11, 2017 6:01 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
Turk Nowitzki wrote:I see Villar found the bench tonight.

Good


His mental make-up is as much a part of the package as his physical talent. That's what I think a lot of people missed in the heated arguments about trading him this off-season. He's one of the biggest clowns in baseball.


Is there anyone that said they wouldn't have traded him this offseason?


I wouldn't have traded Villar, unless it was something really exciting coming back. When he isn't doing dumb things, he is really fun to watch out there. But keep in mind, that isn't saying that it wouldn't be the best thing for the rebuild to trade him, I'm just saying, I didn't want him traded.

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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#34 » by H2tObes » Thu May 11, 2017 8:00 pm

Holy ****, Knebel!
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#35 » by dbrodz7 » Thu May 11, 2017 8:02 pm

That was awesome! I was just in the conference room at work watching and a coworker walks by and goes "you're living and dying with Brewers baseball in May". Knebel got the last strike out and there was a small yell and fist pump, exciting stuff!
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#36 » by Jollay » Thu May 11, 2017 8:03 pm

H2tObes wrote:Holy ****, Knebel!


Great move by Counsell leaving him in. That's how you develop closers right there.

I would have chickened out and gone with Barnes once he hit 30 pitches.
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#37 » by ReasonablySober » Thu May 11, 2017 8:31 pm

Yea, you can DFA Feliz about now.
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Re: RE: Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#38 » by WeekapaugGroove » Thu May 11, 2017 8:35 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Yea, you can DFA Feliz about now.

Yeah I don't think they will be fetching any prospects for him in July. I don't have a problem with taking a shot with him but its simply not working out.

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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#39 » by dbrodz7 » Thu May 11, 2017 9:43 pm

Agreed, Counsell needs cut this **** out and get Knebel in the 9th inning.
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Re: Series Thread: Red Sox @ Brewers 

Post#40 » by H2tObes » Thu May 11, 2017 9:50 pm

Yep, Feliz is terrible

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