Series thread: Pirates at Brewers

[coolhandluke121]

Phillips will be up around September or I could see buying Granderson in late August if we're still in it.

Granderson is kind of what I was getting at. I don't know if I'd trust Phillips in a playoff push. I trust Granderson's experience and poise more. If he's out there for money and AAA depth, they shouldn't wait. He's not great or anything, but I don't like the logic of waiting to see if they can stay in it. The point is to get help so you can stay in it. Perez is bombing hard at the plate and isn't really an outfielder, and they just started Villar in cf. Granderson could plug a pretty significant hole in the roster. They can dfa Drake without thinking twice.

[Kerb Hohl]

This series with the Rockies is huge. The Cubs have an easier schedule down the stretch. The only team that really doesn't have a pulse that the Brewers face is the Giants, but they get Bumgarner in there. The Cubs have the Phillies, Mets, Braves, more with the Reds, and Rays/Blue Jays are both decent teams but not great. The Marlins and Reds are the only other debatable/bad teams.

Given that, a sweep this weekend would probably make the wild card realistic again. Almost all year, even when we caught the WC a few week back, I felt like there was no chance at it given that taking 2nd in the central probably meant cooling down enough not to get it. I think if we can get back in the mix with the Rockies or D-Backs, anything is possible. We'd need to take at least 2 against the Rockies, probably 3 to start making that realistic.

[Ike]

This series with the Rockies is huge. The Cubs have an easier schedule down the stretch. The only team that really doesn't have a pulse that the Brewers face is the Giants, but they get Bumgarner in there. The Cubs have the Phillies, Mets, Braves, more with the Reds, and Rays/Blue Jays are both decent teams but not great. The Marlins and Reds are the only other debatable/bad teams.

Given that, a sweep this weekend would probably make the wild card realistic again. Almost all year, even when we caught the WC a few week back, I felt like there was no chance at it given that taking 2nd in the central probably meant cooling down enough not to get it. I think if we can get back in the mix with the Rockies or D-Backs, anything is possible. We'd need to take at least 2 against the Rockies, probably 3 to start making that realistic.

Why are you worrying about the wild card right now? They're 1 game out with 40 to play. They have a very real chance of winning this division.

[Kerb Hohl]

This series with the Rockies is huge. The Cubs have an easier schedule down the stretch. The only team that really doesn't have a pulse that the Brewers face is the Giants, but they get Bumgarner in there. The Cubs have the Phillies, Mets, Braves, more with the Reds, and Rays/Blue Jays are both decent teams but not great. The Marlins and Reds are the only other debatable/bad teams.

Given that, a sweep this weekend would probably make the wild card realistic again. Almost all year, even when we caught the WC a few week back, I felt like there was no chance at it given that taking 2nd in the central probably meant cooling down enough not to get it. I think if we can get back in the mix with the Rockies or D-Backs, anything is possible. We'd need to take at least 2 against the Rockies, probably 3 to start making that realistic.

Why are you worrying about the wild card right now? They're 1 game out with 40 to play. They have a very real chance of winning this division.

Lol, it was written right in there. If the Brewers finish out at a good clip but the Cubs beat up on a bunch of crappy teams as well, it wouldn't be bad to have the Wild Card to fall back on. We've got 7 with the Cubs that will likely decide things but there will probably be a lot of days where we pull off a big win over the Nats and look over and the Cubs have pummeled the Reds 12-3.

Of course the division is more likely and in reach.

[coolhandluke121]

There's ample reason to watch the wild card race. The Cubs have a joke of a schedule coming up, and they're more talented than Arizona and especially Colorado, who both play in the tougher West and presumably have a few more series against each other and LAD.

[trwi7]

You want to know why the Cubs or Cardinals are the clear favorite to win the division?

Cubs schedule

2 vs Cincinnati
3 vs Toronto
3 @ Cincinnati
3 @ Philadelphia
3 vs Pittsburgh
4 vs Atlanta
4 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs Milwaukee
3 vs New York Mets
3 vs St. Louis
2 @ Tampa
4 @ Milwaukee
4 @ St. Louis
3 vs Cincinnati

Cardinals schedule

1 @ Boston
4 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs San Diego
3 vs Tampa
2 @ Milwaukee
4 @ San Francisco
4 @ San Diego
3 vs Pittsburgh
3 vs Cincinnati
3 @ Chicago
3 @ Cincinnati
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 vs Chicago
3 vs Milwaukee

Brewers schedule

3 @ Colorado
3 @ San Francisco
3 @ Los Angeles
2 vs St. Louis
4 vs Washington
3 @ Cincinnati
3 @ Chicago
3 vs Pittsburgh
3 @ Miami
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 vs Chicago
3 vs Cincinnati
3 @ St. Louis

Even in the wildcard. We almost have to sweep Colorado to make up 3 games and they do have 14 games against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers remaining but they also have 15 games against the Padres, Giants and Tigers. Arizona has 22 games against the Twins, Mets (and they miss deGrom), Padres and Giants.

We only have 9 games against truly bad teams compared to 17 against really good teams.

There's a reason fangraphs only has our playoff odds at 10% and 538 has them at 16%. We're close but we also have by far the hardest remaining schedule of any team we're competing against for a playoff spot and on top of that, we have to make up games in the standings against all of them except the Cardinals.

[coolhandluke121]

Just checked - the Rockies have only 5 games against S.F., and no other opponents worse than Atlanta and Detroit. They have 7 vs. LAD and 7 vs. Arizona. Their non-division opponents include solid teams like Miami, Milwaukee, and K.C. And they're just not a very good team IMO, so they could easily bomb the rest of the way.

Arizona has a similarly tough schedule as well. Very few games against bottom-10 teams, and a lot of games against good teams. They're a talented team though. I don't foresee them failing to claim a wild card.


ETA: Forgot about S.D. Goes without saying that they both play them several times.

[wichmae]

This series with the Rockies is huge. The Cubs have an easier schedule down the stretch. The only team that really doesn't have a pulse that the Brewers face is the Giants, but they get Bumgarner in there. The Cubs have the Phillies, Mets, Braves, more with the Reds, and Rays/Blue Jays are both decent teams but not great. The Marlins and Reds are the only other debatable/bad teams.

Given that, a sweep this weekend would probably make the wild card realistic again. Almost all year, even when we caught the WC a few week back, I felt like there was no chance at it given that taking 2nd in the central probably meant cooling down enough not to get it. I think if we can get back in the mix with the Rockies or D-Backs, anything is possible. We'd need to take at least 2 against the Rockies, probably 3 to start making that realistic.

We wont face Bumgarner. He pitches the day before our series starts.

[wichmae]

You want to know why the Cubs or Cardinals are the clear favorite to win the division?

Cubs schedule

2 vs Cincinnati
3 vs Toronto
3 @ Cincinnati
3 @ Philadelphia
3 vs Pittsburgh
4 vs Atlanta
4 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs Milwaukee
3 vs New York Mets
3 vs St. Louis
2 @ Tampa
4 @ Milwaukee
4 @ St. Louis
3 vs Cincinnati

Cardinals schedule

1 @ Boston
4 @ Pittsburgh
3 vs San Diego
3 vs Tampa
2 @ Milwaukee
4 @ San Francisco
4 @ San Diego
3 vs Pittsburgh
3 vs Cincinnati
3 @ Chicago
3 @ Cincinnati
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 vs Chicago
3 vs Milwaukee

Brewers schedule

3 @ Colorado
3 @ San Francisco
3 @ Los Angeles
2 vs St. Louis
4 vs Washington
3 @ Cincinnati
3 @ Chicago
3 vs Pittsburgh
3 @ Miami
3 @ Pittsburgh
4 vs Chicago
3 vs Cincinnati
3 @ St. Louis

Even in the wildcard. We almost have to sweep Colorado to make up 3 games and they do have 14 games against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers remaining but they also have 15 games against the Padres, Giants and Tigers. Arizona has 22 games against the Twins, Mets (and they miss deGrom), Padres and Giants.

We only have 9 games against truly bad teams compared to 17 against really good teams.

There's a reason fangraphs only has our playoff odds at 10% and 538 has them at 16%. We're close but we also have by far the hardest remaining schedule of any team we're competing against for a playoff spot and on top of that, we have to make up games in the standings against all of them except the Cardinals.

This is kind of why I have had the same take (as well as you)from before the trade deadline. Even when we had a 7 game lead over the cubs our playoff probability was still only hovering around 40% because of the brutal 2nd half schedule we had. This is also why I think any win now trade then as well as going forward is completely foolish. Its sometimes really hard not to wear your fan hat proud and be a realist.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, the D-Backs have 2 more @Houston and the Rox have a few before we start the series on Friday. A few losses from them and a sweep of the Rox opens up the WC potential for if we play well but the Cubs play slightly better.


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[Flap Jackson]

I struggle with the Keon experiment. It is similar to Gomez ... and that took forever to turn into something. Then it was wishy-washy, then they sold high on him. The major difference is there was nobody behind Gomez.

I guess we're in a playoff race ... I guess. The basketball equivalent of fighting for the 8th seed.

Anyway, hat tip to Keon for saying "Eat **** Flap Jackson " the past two games.

[El Duderino]

\
This is kind of why I have had the same take (as well as you)from before the trade deadline. Even when we had a 7 game lead over the cubs our playoff probability was still only hovering around 40% because of the brutal 2nd half schedule we had. This is also why I think any win now trade then as well as going forward is completely foolish. Its sometimes really hard not to wear your fan hat proud and be a realist.

No question that the Brewers face an uphill climb to make the playoffs, both from a talent and schedule situation.

That said, assuming trades for a guy like Walker involve more about saving the Mets money than them getting a prospect from us of any real value, why do you get so bothered by it?

Pro sports are in the entertainment business and while this surprising season by the Brewers has been something you don't like because the team won't land a high draft slot, for most other fans of the team, they've enjoyed the season and if any of these minor trades help the team win a little more without costing prospects who actually matter, that's why these trades were made.

Swarzak cost the Brewers a guy in Cordell that they may not have protected on the 40 man this offseason and given Walker's salary, odds are high the Mets will also get a yawn level prospect in return. Had Stearns instead traded for anyone who would command real prospects, i'd be firmly in your camp.

[Ike]

I struggle with the Keon experiment. It is similar to Gomez ... and that took forever to turn into something. Then it was wishy-washy, then they sold high on him. The major difference is there was nobody behind Gomez.

I guess we're in a playoff race ... I guess. The basketball equivalent of fighting for the 8th seed.

Anyway, hat tip to Keon for saying "Eat **** Flap Jackson " the past two games.

You guess we're in a playoff race? Have you looked at the standings for Christ Sake?

\
This is kind of why I have had the same take (as well as you)from before the trade deadline. Even when we had a 7 game lead over the cubs our playoff probability was still only hovering around 40% because of the brutal 2nd half schedule we had. This is also why I think any win now trade then as well as going forward is completely foolish. Its sometimes really hard not to wear your fan hat proud and be a realist.

No question that the Brewers face an uphill climb to make the playoffs, both from a talent and schedule situation.

That said, assuming trades for a guy like Walker involve more about saving the Mets money than them getting a prospect from us of any real value, why do you get so bothered by it?

Pro sports are in the entertainment business and while this surprising season by the Brewers has been something you don't like because the team won't land a high draft slot, for most other fans of the team, they've enjoyed the season and if any of these minor trades help the team win a little more without costing prospects who actually matter, that's why these trades were made.

Swarzak cost the Brewers a guy in Cordell that they may not have protected on the 40 man this offseason and given Walker's salary, odds are high the Mets will also get a yawn level prospect in return. Had Stearns instead traded for anyone who would command real prospects, i'd be firmly in your camp.

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[El Duderino]

I struggle with the Keon experiment. It is similar to Gomez ... and that took forever to turn into something. Then it was wishy-washy, then they sold high on him. The major difference is there was nobody behind Gomez.

I guess we're in a playoff race ... I guess. The basketball equivalent of fighting for the 8th seed.

Anyway, hat tip to Keon for saying "Eat **** Flap Jackson " the past two games.

You should be thrilled by this.

With Brinson and Phillips both being at a point where they need a shot next year to play a lot in the majors, Broxton pretty much has to go to make room in CF. Kinda like Khris Davis did so Santana had a spot to play.

The better he finishes out this year, it helps the Brewers hang around longer in the playoff race and makes him at least somewhat more attractive to a team in the offseason looking for a CF.

Broxton is incredibly streaky and strikes out at a crazy rate, those things will hurt his trade value. That said, he has power, takes walks, has great speed, defensive metrics like him, and just as important, Keon will be dirt cheap for years. Pre-arb until 2020.

[Prickle]

I want to believe this team can make a run but I just can't fully believe. Too many holes. This being said, I love that they are still mildly relevant.

I mostly agree and I'm still very happy with this season despite the slump. I wouldn't quite say they have "too many holes" though. There are actually very few weak links IMO. It's more that they don't have enough high-impact players. There's hardly a 3 WAR player on the team besides Shaw right now. And of the guys that are close, only Braun has shown the ability to sustain it. How do you envision getting enough WAR to stay in the race? You have to count on a majority of the team to continue to play above their career norms like they did before the ASB. That's tough.

There are a few obvious ways to improve though, and I still have some hope. Regression to the mean works both ways, and I don't think this slump will continue all season. They've had some terrible luck. Here are several reasons to be optimistic:

- Hader and Swarzak instead of the hot trash they used all the time in the first half
- Woodruff instead of Peralta/Guerra/Blazek
- Walker instead of Villar
- Anderson coming back, making either Garza or Suter a valuable long reliever instead of a weak starter
- Vogt instead of Bandy/Susac
- One day off per week means not using terrible relievers or over-using good ones, and maybe skipping some Garza starts
- Braun looks much more healthy

By themselves, these aren't huge changes. They didn't add any impact players. But what they were getting out of some of those roster spots was so abysmal that even upgrading to roughly average is a big deal.

Agreed. None of these small changes are that significant on their own. But together, they will likely prove to be what pushes this team over the edge, should they somehow manage to win this division. In particular, the Walker signing has the potential to be that "key, under the radar" addition that helps bring it all together. I'm sure I'm not the only one who sees the similarities between Walker and Hairston in 2011. Hairston was absolutely HUGE for that postseason run, as Walker could be this year. Both are veteran guys that can hit and play anywhere on the infield. Both are non-flashy, but they know how to play the game. Sh*t, they even both wore #15! Now I've just convinced myself that the Brewers are destined for the NLCS this year. Bank on it!

[BUCKnation]

Almost had a couple of great collapses last night. Cards gave up 3 in the 9th to lose on a walkoff hit and then the Cubs blew a 6-1 lead to eventually win in the 9th.

[JimmyTheKid]

\
This is kind of why I have had the same take (as well as you)from before the trade deadline. Even when we had a 7 game lead over the cubs our playoff probability was still only hovering around 40% because of the brutal 2nd half schedule we had. This is also why I think any win now trade then as well as going forward is completely foolish. Its sometimes really hard not to wear your fan hat proud and be a realist.

No question that the Brewers face an uphill climb to make the playoffs, both from a talent and schedule situation.

That said, assuming trades for a guy like Walker involve more about saving the Mets money than them getting a prospect from us of any real value, why do you get so bothered by it?

Pro sports are in the entertainment business and while this surprising season by the Brewers has been something you don't like because the team won't land a high draft slot, for most other fans of the team, they've enjoyed the season and if any of these minor trades help the team win a little more without costing prospects who actually matter, that's why these trades were made.

Swarzak cost the Brewers a guy in Cordell that they may not have protected on the 40 man this offseason and given Walker's salary, odds are high the Mets will also get a yawn level prospect in return. Had Stearns instead traded for anyone who would command real prospects, i'd be firmly in your camp.

I guess I don't understand this constant negativity and fear of improving the team for the short term. Nobody is pretending the Brewers are the favorite, or advocating for them to go all in. We understand the odds are stacked against us and on paper the Cubs are the better team. But not all "win now" trades are created equal. Just like not all win now trades are "completely foolish" at this time of the year. As usual, Stearns is playing this perfectly.