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2018 ATL Offseason Thread - Trout 12/$430 million

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Re: 2018 Around the League - Arietta to Philly 

Post#221 » by HaroldinGMinor » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:47 pm

trwi7 wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:Like 10% (that’s generous) of 3rd and 4th round picks ever do anything of substance in the majors.


Some notable 3rd and 4th round picks over the last 10 or so years.

J.A. Happ
Ian Desmond
Adam Lind
Wade Davis
Chris Iannetta
Brett Gardner
Jeremy Hellickson
Zach Britton
Alex Cobb
Jonathan Lucroy
Danny Duffy
Stephen Souza
Corey Kluber
Craig Kimbrel
Brandon Crawford
Dee Gordon
Kyle Seager
James Paxton
J.T. Realmuto
Addison Reed
Tyler Thornburg
Mike Clevinger
Edwin Diaz
Cody Bellinger



That's out of about 600 3rd and 4th round picks (30 teams, 10 years, two rounds). So 4% success rate. Even if we add another 20 to your list that's about a 7% success rate.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#222 » by trwi7 » Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:49 pm

And I'd rather take a chance on hitting on one of them than paying Alex Cobb $50+ million over 4 years. This isn't difficult.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#223 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Mar 27, 2018 12:34 am

trwi7 wrote:And I'd rather take a chance on hitting on one of them than paying Alex Cobb $50+ million over 4 years. This isn't difficult.


It’s obviously all moot now but an argument can be made that we’re not going to be adding any less “overpaid” salary. And if we do, it’ll cost several major prospects (like Archer). Of course, Cobb isn’t happening.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#224 » by ReasonablySober » Thu Mar 29, 2018 3:12 pm

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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#225 » by MickeyDavis » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:13 pm

Brinson leading off for the Marlins (ground out first AB).
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#226 » by Turk Nowitzki » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:15 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:Brinson leading off for the Marlins (ground out first AB).

Good for him, hope he does well but not so well that we all hate our lives because we traded him.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#227 » by crkone » Thu Mar 29, 2018 8:22 pm

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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#228 » by trwi7 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:16 pm

Looking at the Blue Jays lineup today and holy ****, how did they not trade Donaldson and start the rebuild this winter? Curtis Granderson is their cleanup hitter.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#229 » by trwi7 » Sun Apr 1, 2018 2:26 am

It's hilarious that the Rockies didn't spend anything to improve their offense this year. It's basically Blackmon and Arenado and maybe McMahon if they admit their Desmond mistake and if Dahl can come back.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#230 » by Gianstoppable » Mon Apr 2, 2018 8:17 pm

My buddy said Charlie Blackmon is the best OF in the MLB right now. I had to tell him to do a good old check on the home/away splits. Classic debate. 1.239 Home OPS/.784 Away.....needless to say easy debate.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#231 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Apr 2, 2018 8:31 pm

Gianstoppable wrote:My buddy said Charlie Blackmon is the best OF in the MLB right now. I had to tell him to do a good old check on the home/away splits. Classic debate. 1.239 Home OPS/.784 Away.....needless to say easy debate.


He's a really good player regardless but they will need a special wing in the HOF someday to honor all of the overrated Rockies hitters.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#232 » by Kerb Hohl » Mon Apr 2, 2018 8:32 pm

trwi7 wrote:It's hilarious that the Rockies didn't spend anything to improve their offense this year. It's basically Blackmon and Arenado and maybe McMahon if they admit their Desmond mistake and if Dahl can come back.


Dahl is back, they're just willingly playing Parra and/or Desmond and/or CarGo over him and have left Dahl in AAA.

I would agree that Dahl is probably better than all of those guys, but CarGo/Desmond did have a bit of an injury-plagued season last year and I do think their bats will be a bit closer to their old selves, though probably still not better than Dahl. I think Parra is fine given his defense (yes, not elite via UZR/Fangraphs but it's pretty good) but I think CarGo will be phased out for Dahl later this year. Dahl didn't do much when he came back last year in the minors so maybe they're just waiting on that.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#233 » by Gianstoppable » Tue Apr 3, 2018 7:38 pm

Kyle Zimmer was released today by the Royals. He's had a long list of injuries and surguries (elbow, shoulder, and thoracic outlet) but he could turn into a solid reliever. He would demand a spot on the 40 man but hes a gamble. Former #5 overall pick but hes 26. Royals are hoping he clears and they can re-sign him on an MiLB contract
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#234 » by Turk Nowitzki » Wed Apr 4, 2018 4:21 pm

I saw Swarzak got hurt for the Mets already and is expected to be out for awhile.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#235 » by ReasonablySober » Wed Apr 4, 2018 7:22 pm

Blackmon got him a six year contract, including 2 player options. He turns 32 in July.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#236 » by Kerb Hohl » Wed Apr 4, 2018 7:46 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Blackmon got him a six year contract, including 2 player options. He turns 32 in July.


Seems somewhat reasonable when you unpack all of the complexities.

For Blackmon's side, he's got some fear that the market is changing and he may not get paid hitting the market.

For the Rockies' side, they're watching a guy go into free agency where the team that loses out on Harper/Machado that has been saving up for this offseason (and under the luxury tax threshold) may overpay the hell out of him.

For Blackmon's side, you have to worry about the league realizing that while he's a pretty good player, his stats are obviously extremely juiced by Coors Field and he is not a $100+ million dollar player.

For the Rockies side, they fear that a stupid owner or two won't care and will pay for near those stats.

So basically the Rockies gave him a 4 year/$110 million dollar deal with deferred money (the player options). Looks as though the options near the end are basically for $21 million (the base salary every year) in 2022 and $10 million in 2023. So it does somewhat push Blackmon toward opting out after the 4th or the 5th year.

The Rockies also can at least somewhat gamble and know that Blackmon's numbers should keep rolling these next few years in Coors so Blackmon could easily opt out after 4 years.

Also also: one of the six years is this year. So it's really a 5 year extension (and a raise this year).
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#237 » by wichmae » Wed Apr 4, 2018 11:28 pm

Gianstoppable wrote:Kyle Zimmer was released today by the Royals. He's had a long list of injuries and surguries (elbow, shoulder, and thoracic outlet) but he could turn into a solid reliever. He would demand a spot on the 40 man but hes a gamble. Former #5 overall pick but hes 26. Royals are hoping he clears and they can re-sign him on an MiLB contract

I wanna say he just had outlet surgery or something. With how barren the KC system is he must be done.
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#238 » by Gianstoppable » Fri Apr 6, 2018 12:13 am

Brinson with the golden sombrero today
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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#239 » by trwi7 » Sun Apr 8, 2018 3:31 am

Can't say it enough. LOL at the Eric Hosmer contract (go to 5:58).

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Re: 2018 Around the League - Cobb to Orioles (pg 11) 

Post#240 » by StickeeFingaz » Sun Apr 8, 2018 4:50 am

WTF Hosmer.
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