Cardinals @ Brewers Series Thread

[raysbookclub]

Great decision, Counsell.

Great two pitches by Knebel to end it. The curve, then the fastball smoked past the batter.

[Jollay]

Knebel does seem to have recovered some gas....SERIES WIN

[Turk Nowitzki]

I can't even handle a random regular season game like this in May. I don't know how I would survive this in the NLCS or something.

[raysbookclub]

Six straight series wins. Five of the six against winning teams.

[Iheartfootball]

Two outta three ain't bad.

[Bernman]

The pitch marker seems off.

Just started watching in the 9th, it does seem off. The 4-pitch walk looked like 3 strikes. Commentators thought so too.

Yeah, it wasn't anywhere near where the ball was entering the glove. I know Hader throws at an angle but not that much. I think it was off, he was being squeezed, and it contributed to the relative struggles. Without that we're talking another k, maybe 1 runner on base, and finishing the game.

[Bernman]

Great decision, Counsell.

Great two pitches by Knebel to end it. The curve, then the fastball smoked past the batter.

It's not a good decision either way by the #'s. Hader has been dominant this year, Knebel has been poor, and last year was the only one where he was particularly good. Odds are even a bad pitcher is going to get the out required on one batter over 50% of the time. He started him 3-1. Hader was getting squeezed. Had 4 k's still. Allowed an infield hit and had a fielder's choice where he could have had a double play. His season speaks for itself. If he's not totally over-worked you have to allow him to finish the game off.

[kid idioteque]

EAT IT, CARDS!!

[trwi7]

*Waits for LuckyLoydWalton's awful pun*

[kid idioteque]

This is not hindsight. Taking Hader out to go with Knebel is a really, really stupid move.

Yeah, very bad. I'm happy it worked out but you either stick with Hader or bring Albers in.

[jute2003]

When has baseball ever made enough sense to assume outcomes before the game starts?

[raysbookclub]

Great decision, Counsell.

Great two pitches by Knebel to end it. The curve, then the fastball smoked past the batter.

It's not a good decision either way by the #'s. Hader has been dominant this year, Knebel has been poor, and last year was the only one where he was particularly good. Odds are even a bad pitcher is going to get the out required on one batter over 50% of the time. He started him 3-1. Hader was getting squeezed. Had 4 k's still. Allowed an infield hit and had a fielder's choice where he could have had a double play. His season speaks for itself. If he's not totally over-worked you have to allow him to finish the game off.

Just win, baby. Get the win = good decision.

[Kerb Hohl]

Great decision, Counsell.

Great two pitches by Knebel to end it. The curve, then the fastball smoked past the batter.

It's not a good decision either way by the #'s. Hader has been dominant this year, Knebel has been poor, and last year was the only one where he was particularly good. Odds are even a bad pitcher is going to get the out required on one batter over 50% of the time. He started him 3-1. Hader was getting squeezed. Had 4 k's still. Allowed an infield hit and had a fielder's choice where he could have had a double play. His season speaks for itself. If he's not totally over-worked you have to allow him to finish the game off.

I'm not saying I think it was a great idea to go to Knebel, but Knebel's struggles amount to basically 2 innings of recent work and 1 or 2 innings to start the year with a giant lake of injury time in between.

He had literally thrown 10 innings. That's not a giant amount to make rash judgments on.

I'm guessing it partially had to do with not wanting to take Hader over 35 or so pitches.

[Bernman]

Just win, baby. Get the win = good decision.

You didn't see the alternative, which is likely the same result, let alone 20 alternatives, where Hader comes out successful more frequently than Knebel.

[raysbookclub]

Just win, baby. Get the win = good decision.

You didn't see the alternative, which is likely the same result, let alone 20 alternatives, where Hader comes out successful more frequently than Knebel.

I get it, but the only alternative/scenario that matters is the one that actually happened, no?

[Bernman]

I'm not saying I think it was a great idea to go to Knebel, but Knebel's struggles amount to basically 2 innings of recent work and 1 or innings to start the year with a giant lake of injury time in between.

He had literally thrown 10 innings. That's not a giant amount to make rash judgments on.

I'm guessing it partially had to do with not wanting to take Hader over 35 or so pitches.

It's more of a sample than that. He had allowed runs in 5 of his 11 previous appearances this year. That's not top 3 reliever level on any team, let alone the Brewers. Really the faith comes from last year. Had a 4.68 the previous year, 3.23 before that, and 6.23. It's not the statistical profile of a top reliever, unlike Hader and Albers, surely.

[WeekapaugGroove]

**** that was dicey but a wins a win. I really hate the cards.

[Kerb Hohl]

I'm not saying I think it was a great idea to go to Knebel, but Knebel's struggles amount to basically 2 innings of recent work and 1 or innings to start the year with a giant lake of injury time in between.

He had literally thrown 10 innings. That's not a giant amount to make rash judgments on.

I'm guessing it partially had to do with not wanting to take Hader over 35 or so pitches.

It's more of a sample than that. He had allowed runs in 5 of his 11 previous appearances this year. That's not top 3 reliever level on any team, let alone the Brewers. Really the faith comes from last year. Had a 4.68 the previous year, 3.23 before that, and 6.23. It's not the statistical profile of a top reliever, unlike Hader and Albers, surely.

Ah yes, the 6.23 ERA in 8 **** innings with the Tigers as a rookie.

He's got home run issues but he's fine. Especially when you would prefer to avoid a bat because there are a lot of outcomes like errors or singles that tie the game (comparing him with going to Albers).

I'm somewhat with you that Knebel may have been a bit overrated from last year, but I think I could find 10 good relief pitchers this year that had the "terrible" start that Knebel had in which they gave up like 5 runs in 8 innings and now they are right back down to their usual 2.5 ERA.

By the way, speaking of "the confidence comes from last year" but suggesting that previous years would trump that: check out Matt Albers' 2016 season with a 6.31 ERA in an actual reasonable amount of innings (50.1).

[Bernman]

Ah yes, the 6.23 ERA in 8 **** innings with the Tigers as a rookie.

He's got home run issues but he's fine. Especially when you would prefer to avoid a bat because there are a lot of outcomes like errors or singles that tie the game.

I'm somewhat with you that Knebel may have been a bit overrated from last year, but I think I could find 10 good relief pitchers this year that had the "terrible" start that Knebel had in which they gave up like 5 runs in 8 innings and now they are right back down to their usual 2.5 ERA.

You're the one looking at the smaller sample to argue that it's reasonable to trust him as a closer this year. His status when it comes to that almost entirely comes down to his performance last year, one of five partial or full seasons.

What, Hader can't avoid a bat? I've heard some things about him having an all-time great k-rate and WHIP #'s coming in.

It's about making the best decision with the info you have at the time. That wasn't done. It hasn't been done since Knebel returned. He doesn't have to bomb from here on out for that to be true. But whatever. I don't want to spend much time on it considering the Brewers won again anyway.

[Kerb Hohl]

Ah yes, the 6.23 ERA in 8 **** innings with the Tigers as a rookie.

He's got home run issues but he's fine. Especially when you would prefer to avoid a bat because there are a lot of outcomes like errors or singles that tie the game.

I'm somewhat with you that Knebel may have been a bit overrated from last year, but I think I could find 10 good relief pitchers this year that had the "terrible" start that Knebel had in which they gave up like 5 runs in 8 innings and now they are right back down to their usual 2.5 ERA.

You're the one looking at the smaller sample to justify that he should be trusted as a closer this year. His status when it comes to that almost entirely comes down to his performance last year, one of five partial or full seasons.

What, Hader can't avoid a bat? I've heard some things about him having an all-time great k-rate and WHIP #'s coming in.

It's about making the best decision with the info you have at the time. That wasn't done. It hasn't been done since Knebel returned. But whatever. I don't want to spend much time on it considering the Brewers won again anyway.

I edited my post but my comparison was with Albers in the "avoiding a bat" idea.

I'm not someone that talks about "trusting as a closer" type of cliche, either, though Knebel qualifies as a good reliever and therefore I'm fine using him in a lot of 3 run lead in the 9th inning type of things.

Also, take a look at what I added to my post for with Matt Albers. You wanna crucify Knebel for bad stats 2 years ago, get a load of Albers' 2016.

I am guessing that going away from Hader may have had to do with pitch count. Hader has gone above 35 a few times this year but not much.