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2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Phelps Signed

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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#321 » by jute2003 » Tue Dec 3, 2019 2:43 pm

Well, that is certainly A LOT of turnover. Grandal and Moose will be missed but the rest of the bats should be replaced easily enough. Theoretically, they have a bit of money to spend and Stearns has proven to be pretty creative with personnel.

The rest of the offseason will be interesting...
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#322 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Dec 3, 2019 2:47 pm

bdpecore wrote:
msiris wrote:Why do I feel like this team will not be very good next year?

Maybe because it’s December 2nd and you don’t trust Stearns will be able to fill out the roster with quality players who can help the Brewers return to the postseason next year. People tend to be scared of the unknown but I still believe in Stearns and trust he will wind up with a competitive roster come Spring Training


The question to ask yourself is why would you shoot for "competitive". It isn't just the major league roster that isn't good, it's also a farm system that rates dead last in the league. Instead of trying to find lightning in a bottle in a division with almost no room for error, the smarter move would be to trade off the few truly remaining pieces and build the core that might truly contend three years from now.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#323 » by coolhandluke121 » Tue Dec 3, 2019 2:54 pm

Man, this team relied on a ton of mediocre players over the last 3 years. Makes you appreciate how much they had to improvise to be a playoff contender each season.

Shaw
Davies
Aguilar
Hernan
Thames
Anderson
Guerra
Santana
Sogard
Kratz
Phillips
Claudio (and a whole bunch of other bad relievers we'd all like to forget)
Bandy
Broxton
Villar

Seems like most of those guys had one or two random career years for the Brewers. Maybe the Brewers got really lucky? It's also possible that they're targeting cheap guys in their mid-to-late 20's precisely because they know that's prime age for a random career year.

In any case, it makes you realize how much of their success was built on guys who ended up being non-tender candidates while still under team control. It's actually pretty amazing. They also got pretty lucky to get Yelich, Moustakas (not the trade but the 1-year deal), and Grandal the way they did. Credit to them for their resourcefulness, opportunism, and creative roster management, but it's going to be hard to pull if off again.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#324 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 2:54 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
bdpecore wrote:
msiris wrote:Why do I feel like this team will not be very good next year?

Maybe because it’s December 2nd and you don’t trust Stearns will be able to fill out the roster with quality players who can help the Brewers return to the postseason next year. People tend to be scared of the unknown but I still believe in Stearns and trust he will wind up with a competitive roster come Spring Training


The question to ask yourself is why would you shoot for "competitive". It isn't just the major league roster that isn't good, it's also a farm system that rates dead last in the league. Instead of trying to find lightning in a bottle in a division with almost no room for error, the smarter move would be to trade off the few truly remaining pieces and build the core that might truly contend three years from now.


The Nats just won a World Series with a roster that was very good but their record was only "competitive."

The "competitive" roster of the Brewers were a few pitches away from the World Series in 2018.

There are a few things:

1. Tanking is fine. The Brewers will never do it with Attanasio unless the season completely sets itself up for it.

2. They have a really good GM that can make something out of this. They're better off selling everything off in a year or two if it's not working. They still have remnants of good enough players to have another playoff team or two. I don't think there is a logical Yelich trade that exists right now, so why not spend some of Mark Attanasio's money and try to win with him? For everyone that creams their pants dreaming of #1 draft picks turning into what the Astros did, it's much, much more likely that the Brewers win a fluky World Series with their current group.

Back to the Yelich thing - that is basically what the rebuild would center around. Hiura you could debate the window of trading, Woodruff, probably.

But Yelich - there is not a logical trade. Which MLB team has 3 top 50 prospects that also wants to try to win a World Series? The Dodgers are likely the only one that checks the box and I can't imagine it working. The team trading away the superstar almost always gets raked over the coals in these trades.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#325 » by coolhandluke121 » Tue Dec 3, 2019 2:59 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
The question to ask yourself is why would you shoot for "competitive". It isn't just the major league roster that isn't good, it's also a farm system that rates dead last in the league. Instead of trying to find lightning in a bottle in a division with almost no room for error, the smarter move would be to trade off the few truly remaining pieces and build the core that might truly contend three years from now.


I think that's what they're doing. They have given away an awful lot of guys who contributed to their success the last 3 years. To me, it's a tacit acknowledgement that they don't have a solid enough foundation to keep contending.

I'm sure they will sign some 1-year deals and see how it goes, and they might sign a longer deal if they're sure they're getting a trade asset, but if I had to bet I'd say they're probably thinking there's a better than 50% chance they'll be sellers this summer.

Personally I would like to see them give Peralta and Burnes plenty of chances in the rotation and live with the growing pains. Guys like Chase and Davies didn't have the same upside, so you may as well see if you can develop the young guys. Maybe they'll have a breakout season, like Chase and Nelson in 2017.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#326 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:04 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:Man, this team relied on a ton of mediocre players over the last 3 years. Makes you appreciate how much they had to improvise to be a playoff contender each season.

Shaw
Davies
Aguilar
Hernan
Thames
Anderson
Guerra
Santana
Sogard
Kratz
Phillips
Claudio (and a whole bunch of other bad relievers we'd all like to forget)
Bandy
Broxton
Villar

Seems like most of those guys had one or two random career years for the Brewers. Maybe the Brewers got really lucky? It's also possible that they're targeting cheap guys in their mid-to-late 20's precisely because they know that's prime age for a random career year.

In any case, it makes you realize how much of their success was built on guys who ended up being non-tender candidates while still under team control. It's actually pretty amazing. They also got pretty lucky to get Yelich, Moustakas (not the trade but the 1-year deal), and Grandal the way they did. Credit to them for their resourcefulness, opportunism, and creative roster management, but it's going to be hard to pull if off again.


Counterargument is that what you've listed is baseball players. That is what every team has to work with.

The Nats had late in the year on their 2019 roster:
Javy Guerra
Wander Suero
Yan Gomes
Michael Taylor
Matt Adams
The corpse of Ryan Zimmerman
Hunter Strickland
Asdrubal Cabrera
I'm too lazy to keep typing but then like 10-15 AAAA-type guys


The best GMs put those players in the best situation to succeed and carefully finds ones that will work with their group/plan. All of the good teams have 5-10 All Stars/superstars. Then you work with the other 15-25 guys that you need to use. Those guys, by definition, will all have 2-3 randomly good years in the midst of 5-7 average/bad ones.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#327 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:05 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
bdpecore wrote:Maybe because it’s December 2nd and you don’t trust Stearns will be able to fill out the roster with quality players who can help the Brewers return to the postseason next year. People tend to be scared of the unknown but I still believe in Stearns and trust he will wind up with a competitive roster come Spring Training


The question to ask yourself is why would you shoot for "competitive". It isn't just the major league roster that isn't good, it's also a farm system that rates dead last in the league. Instead of trying to find lightning in a bottle in a division with almost no room for error, the smarter move would be to trade off the few truly remaining pieces and build the core that might truly contend three years from now.


The Nats just won a World Series with a roster that was very good but their record was only "competitive."

The "competitive" roster of the Brewers were a few pitches away from the World Series in 2018.

There are a few things:

1. Tanking is fine. The Brewers will never do it with Attanasio unless the season completely sets itself up for it.

2. They have a really good GM that can make something out of this. They're better off selling everything off in a year or two if it's not working. They still have remnants of good enough players to have another playoff team or two. I don't think there is a logical Yelich trade that exists right now, so why not spend some of Mark Attanasio's money and try to win with him? For everyone that creams their pants dreaming of #1 draft picks turning into what the Astros did, it's much, much more likely that the Brewers win a fluky World Series with their current group.

Back to the Yelich thing - that is basically what the rebuild would center around. Hiura you could debate the window of trading, Woodruff, probably.

But Yelich - there is not a logical trade. Which MLB team has 3 top 50 prospects that also wants to try to win a World Series? The Dodgers are likely the only one that checks the box and I can't imagine it working. The team trading away the superstar almost always gets raked over the coals in these trades.


They had the best record in the sport for about four months of the season. When they got to the playoffs they had rotation as good as any in baseball. Nats and Brewers won't be comparable in 2020.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#328 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:06 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:
The question to ask yourself is why would you shoot for "competitive". It isn't just the major league roster that isn't good, it's also a farm system that rates dead last in the league. Instead of trying to find lightning in a bottle in a division with almost no room for error, the smarter move would be to trade off the few truly remaining pieces and build the core that might truly contend three years from now.


I think that's what they're doing. They have given away an awful lot of guys who contributed to their success the last 3 years. To me, it's a tacit acknowledgement that they don't have a solid enough foundation to keep contending.

I'm sure they will sign some 1-year deals and see how it goes, and they might sign a longer deal if they're sure they're getting a trade asset, but if I had to bet I'd say they're probably thinking there's a better than 50% chance they'll be sellers this summer.

Personally I would like to see them give Peralta and Burnes plenty of chances in the rotation and live with the growing pains. Guys like Chase and Davies didn't have the same upside, so you may as well see if you can develop the young guys. Maybe they'll have a breakout season, like Chase and Nelson in 2017.


They may not sign some longer deals because they don't believe in the value in some of the guys are getting, but while they may be hitting a soft reset on the middle/back of their roster, I think they're going to try to contend more than you think.

Of course, yeah, they're not stupid. They'll sell at the deadline if things don't go well and there is obviously risk this season.

I don't get why you think they are going to stupdily do this, "we're kinda in...but kinda not!" thing. Why would they just softly go into this season and not trade Yelich or possibly Woodruff/Hader (Hader on the block but I think it's for a mega-package only)?

They have 3 years with Yelich and if Cain resurrects, 3 years with him. Why would you waste one of those years and go, "eh, we won't spend much and we'll kinda put a thought in our head about rebuilding." That would literally be a wasted season.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#329 » by M-C-G » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:06 pm

Either you keep Yelich, which means you better have some big plans this offseason, or you sell Yelich and start a rebuild this season.

EDIT: according to spotrac we have Yelich until 2022. I had thought only through 2021. That probably defers my comment above 1 season.

Just looked up on Spotrac and they have Brauns 2021 as a mutual option....wow, so this is probably the end of the Braun era this year.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#330 » by coolhandluke121 » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:07 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:

The best GMs put those players in the best situation to succeed and carefully finds ones that will work with their group/plan. All of the good teams have 5-10 All Stars/superstars. Then you work with the other 15-25 guys that you need to use. Those guys, by definition, will all have 2-3 randomly good years in the midst of 5-7 average/bad ones.


My point wasn't that they had more of those guys than other contenders, but that more of them had random career years at roughly the same time. Admittedly I'm not crunching any numbers to compare them, but it seems like they had more than their share of good years from mediocre players. They averaged 90 wins for 3 years, and I don't think they had rosters that a wise person would bet on doing so.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#331 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:11 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:

The best GMs put those players in the best situation to succeed and carefully finds ones that will work with their group/plan. All of the good teams have 5-10 All Stars/superstars. Then you work with the other 15-25 guys that you need to use. Those guys, by definition, will all have 2-3 randomly good years in the midst of 5-7 average/bad ones.


My point wasn't that they had more of those guys than other contenders, but that more of them had random career years at roughly the same time. Admittedly I'm not crunching any numbers to compare them, but it seems like they had more than their share of good years from mediocre players. They averaged 90 wins for 3 years, and I don't think they had rosters that a wise person would bet on doing so.


That is precisely why they have a good management group/GM/manager. 40% of the MLB is made up of your Travis Shaw/Chase Anderson types. The Brewers worked with their coaching/analytics/etc staff to use those guys in the right roles, right times, right positions, etc. and also had enough depth that they could use the 5 guys that were having good years while the other 5 of those guys were not.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#332 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:19 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:They had the best record in the sport for about four months of the season. When they got to the playoffs they had rotation as good as any in baseball. Nats and Brewers won't be comparable in 2020.


Of course. And I acknowledged that literally in my post that the Nats were an elite roster. The point was that you want to make the playoffs and "anything can happen."

The Nats and Brewers over the course of things never will be due to being able to pay high-priced pitchers, of course.

But back to your main point - there is not much of a reason to tank this year and it's not necessarily logical.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#333 » by coolhandluke121 » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:19 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
My point wasn't that they had more of those guys than other contenders, but that more of them had random career years at roughly the same time. Admittedly I'm not crunching any numbers to compare them, but it seems like they had more than their share of good years from mediocre players. They averaged 90 wins for 3 years, and I don't think they had rosters that a wise person would bet on doing so.


That is precisely why they have a good management group/GM/manager. 40% of the MLB is made up of your Travis Shaw/Chase Anderson types. The Brewers worked with their coaching/analytics/etc staff to use those guys in the right roles, right times, right positions, etc. and also had enough depth that they could use the 5 guys that were having good years while the other 5 of those guys were not.


I think they have great management, but I also think there was a fair amount of luck involved. I think it's going to be hard to replicate because they've lost a lot of flexibility through trading off what little they had in the way of prospects and because of difficult non-tender decisions.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#334 » by M-C-G » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:20 pm

Anthony Rendon seems like a guy that would be worth paying up for. Not sure if that Nats let him go or not, but that would be a nice piece to add. Nick Castellanos might be another guy to look at, looks like he plays some 3rd and outfield

No idea what kind of market is going to be out there for these guys, but assuming they won't be cheap
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#335 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:23 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:They had the best record in the sport for about four months of the season. When they got to the playoffs they had rotation as good as any in baseball. Nats and Brewers won't be comparable in 2020.


Of course. And I acknowledged that literally in my post that the Nats were an elite roster. The point was that you want to make the playoffs and "anything can happen."

The Nats and Brewers over the course of things never will be due to being able to pay high-priced pitchers, of course.

But back to your main point - there is not much of a reason to tank this year.


They're losing two of their three best players, have only one high end starter, Hader's value diminishes with every pitch he throws, Cain fell off a cliff last season, they currently have holes at three positions and obviously can't afford the best talent on the market, and their farm system is empty.

If this isn't a season to tank, then there is no such season.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#336 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:23 pm

coolhandluke121 wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
coolhandluke121 wrote:
My point wasn't that they had more of those guys than other contenders, but that more of them had random career years at roughly the same time. Admittedly I'm not crunching any numbers to compare them, but it seems like they had more than their share of good years from mediocre players. They averaged 90 wins for 3 years, and I don't think they had rosters that a wise person would bet on doing so.


That is precisely why they have a good management group/GM/manager. 40% of the MLB is made up of your Travis Shaw/Chase Anderson types. The Brewers worked with their coaching/analytics/etc staff to use those guys in the right roles, right times, right positions, etc. and also had enough depth that they could use the 5 guys that were having good years while the other 5 of those guys were not.


I think they have great management, but I also think there was a fair amount of luck involved. I think it's going to be hard to replicate because they've lost a lot of flexibility through trading off what little they had in the way of prospects and because of difficult non-tender decisions.


What did they trade/lose in prospects? Isan Diaz and Harrison? The rest of the guys like Phillips, Ortiz, Brinson would not even be "prospect" trade chips anymore. We'd be talking about cutting them or they'd already have been cut when they run out of options or weren't worth being on the 40.

I realize there is an ammo of 10 guys like Dubon that can be major leaguers but the Brewers farm system actually sucked in hindsight as of 2 years ago.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#337 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:25 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
ReasonablySober wrote:They had the best record in the sport for about four months of the season. When they got to the playoffs they had rotation as good as any in baseball. Nats and Brewers won't be comparable in 2020.


Of course. And I acknowledged that literally in my post that the Nats were an elite roster. The point was that you want to make the playoffs and "anything can happen."

The Nats and Brewers over the course of things never will be due to being able to pay high-priced pitchers, of course.

But back to your main point - there is not much of a reason to tank this year.


They're losing two of their three best players, have only one high end starter, Hader's value diminishes with every pitch he throws, Cain fell off a cliff last season, they currently have holes at three positions and obviously can't afford the best talent on the market, and their farm system is empty.

If this isn't a season to tank, then there is no such season.


OK, again, it will never happen with Attanasio.

Secondly, I have detailed why a Yelich trade is probably not logical right now.

They will afford some talent, just not the first 3 guys that went off the market. My venmo is available if you want to make a bet. They will spend $120 million or so. I don't know what you're thinking on that one.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#338 » by Kerb Hohl » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:30 pm

I think I'm still probably the youngest one on here but it is an interesting dynamic.

I watch the Badgers and Brewers through the lens of what we have. They're pretty well run and are what they are in the economic scheme of things.

I am a fan of tanking in the right case, I understand it, I'm in support of a systematic rebuild. If the Brewers did it tomorrow, I'm fine with it.

But they won't. The Badgers also will not fire both coaches and turn into some crooked entity after hiring away Nick Saban and some bagman basketball coach. These are the facts of life.

Enjoy watching the well-run teams and live with the reality. They do have a path to being a division champ again and if it crumbles this year/maybe next year, then I think things begin to get blown up.

Disregarding the extreme unlikely nature of actually striking the lottery and turning into the Astros and then cashing in on said opportunity with a championship, I don't know how I could enjoy things by just saying, "yeah we have a well-run team and superstars and the reality is this...but I'm going to spend every waking moment thinking about how we could and should tank. And I'm not wrong because if and when the team loses, I will know that my tanking strategy would've been better."

Of course the rebuttal will be, "yeah, we're wasting 2-3 years waiting on this" but I would contend that there is a better chance to retool things and recreate 2018 than to tank, have everything fall into place, and win a title in 2024. Odds are higher that we're talking about re-tanking in 2023.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#339 » by ReasonablySober » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:35 pm

I don't know why you're so adamant that the Brewers won't tank, as if they haven't seen a boatload of older, high priced talent walk this offseason. If Mark A was so opposed to tanking he could have just paid those guys.
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Re: 2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Moose to CIN; Hader's on the Block; Arcia Signs 1YD, Bye Shaw/Nelson+ 

Post#340 » by coolhandluke121 » Tue Dec 3, 2019 3:36 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
What did they trade/lose in prospects? Isan Diaz and Harrison? The rest of the guys like Phillips, Ortiz, Brinson would not even be "prospect" trade chips anymore. We'd be talking about cutting them or they'd already have been cut when they run out of options or weren't worth being on the 40.



What does it matter what became of the prospects they had? They had some value at the time, and the Brewers don't have that now.
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