2019 Brewers Offseason Thread - Phelps Signed

[coolhandluke121]

And all I'm saying is that they're taking a pretty big risk in counting on a good opportunity to turn up if they feel a sense of urgency about contending this year and next. I'm not advocating it or defending it. I'm actually kind of surprised they're willing to take that risk.

It was easier to justify when they were playing with house money and could take a chance on reclamation projects and other bargains. It's a little harder now that they're kind of expected to contend and they don't have a good farm system to use as an excuse for keeping one eye on the future.

[Kerb Hohl]

And all I'm saying is that they're taking a pretty big risk in counting on a good opportunity to turn up if they feel a sense of urgency about contending this year and next. I'm not advocating it or defending it. I'm actually kind of surprised they're willing to take that risk.

It was easier to justify when they were playing with house money and could take a chance on reclamation projects and other bargains. It's a little harder now that they're kind of expected to contend and they don't have a good farm system to use as an excuse for keeping one eye on the future.

Right, so put those two things together and if they don't pick a direction, then Stearns is basically an idiot (or just completely misjudged the market this offseason).

It makes zero sense to run an $85 million payroll this year and not trade more than one of Yelich, Hader, and something in the bin of Cain/Hiura/Woodruff (I know Cain's value is not great right now) depending on what your window is. Because if you do that, you're literally going to walk into next offseason in the same position except Yelich/Hader are one year older and you've even wasted a season of Hiura/Woodruff. No farm system to think bigger and better things are coming in 2021 or 2022.

[M-C-G]

If they didn’t want to pay Grandal, a great player at a position of need and Moustakas, a good player at a position of need that only would’ve cost about $10 million more than Shaw. I have a hard time believing they’re going to be in on guys like Wheeler, Ryu and Donaldson, not to mention the very top tier guys.

I don’t really know what they’re planning but I don’t think it’s a spending spree in free agency

Precisely. If all the other cost-cutting moves don't convince anyone, then letting those two guys walk should. They clearly fit the team like a glove and they have a contender with them, and it's not like they couldn't afford to overpay them. They would just have bad contracts on the books in a few years, but their window of contention would be over by then anyway.

I'm not worried about the other guys, other than the realization Jimmy Nelson robbed himself of a career and a 100M by sliding into first.

I'm not a big fan of the deals that Grandal and Moose got, but yeah, should have found a way to bring at least one of them back. Frankly, I'd prefer Moose over Grandal, but nothing to be done about that now.

I'll also say that quote by Stearns, leads me to believe they have a plan to spend, but I just hope it isn't a plan to hope another Grandal and Moose situation drop in our laps.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the prevailing expectation around the game is for the Brewers to pare back payroll after opening the 2019 season at a franchise-high $122.5MM. While that may be what others teams are thinking in the wake of the team’s recent moves and trade talk, however, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel suggested in his latest podcast (audio link) that there’s no directive to cut payroll and that the team will likely spend to address some notable holes on the roster (corner infield, catcher, starting pitching). The extent to which they’ll spend, of course, can’t be known; the Brewers appeared headed for a modest payroll in 2019 until late opportunities to add Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas on short-term deals surfaced unexpectedly

The club’s top baseball ops exec acknowledged the money-saving effects of the moves but didn’t really commit himself to one course of action or another, beyond making clear that the team “intend[s] on being competitive once again next year.”

Stearns cautioned fans not to judge the roster based upon its present status, saying he anticipates “invest[ing] in players throughout the course of the offseason.” And at least some of the open payroll space will be put to use. “I’d say that payroll flexibility helps, and isn’t a bad thing as we evaluate potential acquisitions throughout the offseason,” says Stearns. “It’s helpful to have payroll room.”

[bdpecore]

Two trades I would like to see explored are:
1. Hader and Peralta/Burnes for Chris Sale
Reason: Boston has been known to be looking to shed salary to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and no GM is willingly taking on Price with his regression. I also don’t see Mookie Betts getting traded so that leaves Sale and to a lesser extent Bradley. Sale is coming off a down year although he was dealing with elbow soreness all year until being shutdown. He has since been cleared by Dr. Andrews to begin throwing again. He is also owed $155MM over the next 5 seasons which takes him through his age 35 season. Now Boston would have to feel confident they could find another starting pitcher on the market to fill in for less (Keuchel, Hamels, Pineda all come to mind) AND believe they can turn Burnes/Peralta into a mid-rotation starter. Now this is a swing for the fences kinda trade but and maybe we need to add in another prospect like Lutz or Ray to sweeten the deal but it could be beneficial for both sides. Boston also would be adding one of the best relievers in the league who instantly upgrades their bullpen which struggled last season.

2. Matthew Boyd for Turang and Arcia
Detroit needs infielders desperately and can get a SS who at 25, still has time to put it together along with a top 100 middle infielder who they can be ready to contribute in 2-3 years when they are coming out of their rebuild.

Bow that the rotation is set Stearns can focus on signing veterans to fill out the roster. I could see Gregorius (3/$45) which shifts Urias to 3B otherwise either A. Cabrera or T. Frazier (1yr/$7MM) to man the hot corner. Kendrick, Cron or Smoak ($5-6MM) to play 1B and Chirinos, Avila or Castro ($4-6MM) to start at C.

We could even take a flyer on Blake Treinen (1yr/$8MM plus incentives) as a potential bounce back candidate to add another late innings option to pair with Knebel.

Thoughts?

[Kerb Hohl]

Two trades I would like to see explored are:
1. Hader and Peralta/Burnes for Chris Sale
Reason: Boston has been known to be looking to shed salary to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and no GM is willingly taking on Price with his regression. I also don’t see Mookie Betts getting traded so that leaves Sale and to a lesser extent Bradley. Sale is coming off a down year although he was dealing with elbow soreness all year until being shutdown. He has since been cleared by Dr. Andrews to begin throwing again. He is also owed $155MM over the next 5 seasons which takes him through his age 35 season. Now Boston would have to feel confident they could find another starting pitcher on the market to fill in for less (Keuchel, Hamels, Pineda all come to mind) AND believe they can turn Burnes/Peralta into a mid-rotation starter. Now this is a swing for the fences kinda trade but and maybe we need to add in another prospect like Lutz or Ray to sweeten the deal but it could be beneficial for both sides. Boston also would be adding one of the best relievers in the league who instantly upgrades their bullpen which struggled last season.

2. Matthew Boyd for Turang and Arcia
Detroit needs infielders desperately and can get a SS who at 25, still has time to put it together along with a top 100 middle infielder who they can be ready to contribute in 2-3 years when they are coming out of their rebuild.

Bow that the rotation is set Stearns can focus on signing veterans to fill out the roster. I could see Gregorius (3/$45) which shifts Urias to 3B otherwise either A. Cabrera or T. Frazier (1yr/$7MM) to man the hot corner. Kendrick, Cron or Smoak ($5-6MM) to play 1B and Chirinos, Avila or Castro ($4-6MM) to start at C.

We could even take a flyer on Blake Treinen (1yr/$8MM plus incentives) as a potential bounce back candidate to add another late innings option to pair with Knebel.
Thoughts?

I'm not sure about this one from Boston's standpoint. They can get nearly under the luxury tax by just non-tendering JBJ (though I guess with the deadline passing, maybe they kept him?). I feel like they want to sneak under the luxury tax one time and then they can go back over with Betts, etc. in the future.

I think the Brewers might not really be in a position to take on the risk of Sale's arm, either.

It's not a bad idea but in the end I don't know if I see that one.

Boyd seems like a potential target, though he faded a bit last year.

[bdpecore]

Two trades I would like to see explored are:
1. Hader and Peralta/Burnes for Chris Sale
Reason: Boston has been known to be looking to shed salary to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and no GM is willingly taking on Price with his regression. I also don’t see Mookie Betts getting traded so that leaves Sale and to a lesser extent Bradley. Sale is coming off a down year although he was dealing with elbow soreness all year until being shutdown. He has since been cleared by Dr. Andrews to begin throwing again. He is also owed $155MM over the next 5 seasons which takes him through his age 35 season. Now Boston would have to feel confident they could find another starting pitcher on the market to fill in for less (Keuchel, Hamels, Pineda all come to mind) AND believe they can turn Burnes/Peralta into a mid-rotation starter. Now this is a swing for the fences kinda trade but and maybe we need to add in another prospect like Lutz or Ray to sweeten the deal but it could be beneficial for both sides. Boston also would be adding one of the best relievers in the league who instantly upgrades their bullpen which struggled last season.

2. Matthew Boyd for Turang and Arcia
Detroit needs infielders desperately and can get a SS who at 25, still has time to put it together along with a top 100 middle infielder who they can be ready to contribute in 2-3 years when they are coming out of their rebuild.

Bow that the rotation is set Stearns can focus on signing veterans to fill out the roster. I could see Gregorius (3/$45) which shifts Urias to 3B otherwise either A. Cabrera or T. Frazier (1yr/$7MM) to man the hot corner. Kendrick, Cron or Smoak ($5-6MM) to play 1B and Chirinos, Avila or Castro ($4-6MM) to start at C.

We could even take a flyer on Blake Treinen (1yr/$8MM plus incentives) as a potential bounce back candidate to add another late innings option to pair with Knebel.

Thoughts?

The more I ponder this idea the more I’m starting to believe Stearns might have to combine the two trades and send Boyd to Boston with Hader instead of Peralta/Burnes and just look to resign Lyles or Gio to be our other starter. I don’t see Boston wanting to gamble that much on an unproven starter to replace their ace. But Boyd offers a cheap proven option who has frontline potential.

[bdpecore]

Two trades I would like to see explored are:
1. Hader and Peralta/Burnes for Chris Sale
Reason: Boston has been known to be looking to shed salary to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and no GM is willingly taking on Price with his regression. I also don’t see Mookie Betts getting traded so that leaves Sale and to a lesser extent Bradley. Sale is coming off a down year although he was dealing with elbow soreness all year until being shutdown. He has since been cleared by Dr. Andrews to begin throwing again. He is also owed $155MM over the next 5 seasons which takes him through his age 35 season. Now Boston would have to feel confident they could find another starting pitcher on the market to fill in for less (Keuchel, Hamels, Pineda all come to mind) AND believe they can turn Burnes/Peralta into a mid-rotation starter. Now this is a swing for the fences kinda trade but and maybe we need to add in another prospect like Lutz or Ray to sweeten the deal but it could be beneficial for both sides. Boston also would be adding one of the best relievers in the league who instantly upgrades their bullpen which struggled last season.

2. Matthew Boyd for Turang and Arcia
Detroit needs infielders desperately and can get a SS who at 25, still has time to put it together along with a top 100 middle infielder who they can be ready to contribute in 2-3 years when they are coming out of their rebuild.

Bow that the rotation is set Stearns can focus on signing veterans to fill out the roster. I could see Gregorius (3/$45) which shifts Urias to 3B otherwise either A. Cabrera or T. Frazier (1yr/$7MM) to man the hot corner. Kendrick, Cron or Smoak ($5-6MM) to play 1B and Chirinos, Avila or Castro ($4-6MM) to start at C.

We could even take a flyer on Blake Treinen (1yr/$8MM plus incentives) as a potential bounce back candidate to add another late innings option to pair with Knebel.
Thoughts?

I'm not sure about this one from Boston's standpoint. They can get nearly under the luxury tax by just non-tendering JBJ (though I guess with the deadline passing, maybe they kept him?). I feel like they want to sneak under the luxury tax one time and then they can go back over with Betts, etc. in the future.

I think the Brewers might not really be in a position to take on the risk of Sale's arm, either.

It's not a bad idea but in the end I don't know if I see that one.

Boyd seems like a potential target, though he faded a bit last year.

Trading Sale and JBJ leaves them about $10-14MM under the cap to add more depth to their roster. I think this money might be worth giving up Sale to gain for Boston’s FO.

[Kerb Hohl]

Two trades I would like to see explored are:
1. Hader and Peralta/Burnes for Chris Sale
Reason: Boston has been known to be looking to shed salary to get underneath the luxury tax threshold and no GM is willingly taking on Price with his regression. I also don’t see Mookie Betts getting traded so that leaves Sale and to a lesser extent Bradley. Sale is coming off a down year although he was dealing with elbow soreness all year until being shutdown. He has since been cleared by Dr. Andrews to begin throwing again. He is also owed $155MM over the next 5 seasons which takes him through his age 35 season. Now Boston would have to feel confident they could find another starting pitcher on the market to fill in for less (Keuchel, Hamels, Pineda all come to mind) AND believe they can turn Burnes/Peralta into a mid-rotation starter. Now this is a swing for the fences kinda trade but and maybe we need to add in another prospect like Lutz or Ray to sweeten the deal but it could be beneficial for both sides. Boston also would be adding one of the best relievers in the league who instantly upgrades their bullpen which struggled last season.

2. Matthew Boyd for Turang and Arcia
Detroit needs infielders desperately and can get a SS who at 25, still has time to put it together along with a top 100 middle infielder who they can be ready to contribute in 2-3 years when they are coming out of their rebuild.

Bow that the rotation is set Stearns can focus on signing veterans to fill out the roster. I could see Gregorius (3/$45) which shifts Urias to 3B otherwise either A. Cabrera or T. Frazier (1yr/$7MM) to man the hot corner. Kendrick, Cron or Smoak ($5-6MM) to play 1B and Chirinos, Avila or Castro ($4-6MM) to start at C.

We could even take a flyer on Blake Treinen (1yr/$8MM plus incentives) as a potential bounce back candidate to add another late innings option to pair with Knebel.
Thoughts?

I'm not sure about this one from Boston's standpoint. They can get nearly under the luxury tax by just non-tendering JBJ (though I guess with the deadline passing, maybe they kept him?). I feel like they want to sneak under the luxury tax one time and then they can go back over with Betts, etc. in the future.

I think the Brewers might not really be in a position to take on the risk of Sale's arm, either.

It's not a bad idea but in the end I don't know if I see that one.

Boyd seems like a potential target, though he faded a bit last year.

Trading Sale and JBJ leaves them about $10-14MM under the cap to add more depth to their roster. I think this money might be worth giving up Sale to gain for Boston’s FO.

They could also probably just get rid of JBJ and then trade Price and pick up 2/3 of the contract. That may be a tough pill to swallow on Price, but that means they'd be that same $10-14 under. Their payroll clears up a bit in the next few years as they stop paying Pedroia after 2021 and they stop paying...Rusney Castillo...after 2020.

I think if they're getting rid of Sale they're concerned about his arm, so I'm not sure I want that risk with the Brewers. If not, they can find other ways to sneak under the luxury tax threshold this year to reset their number and then go back over in future years.

[coolhandluke121]

Right, so put those two things together and if they don't pick a direction, then Stearns is basically an idiot (or just completely misjudged the market this offseason).

He could just be overconfident in his ability to unearth gems. Their scouting and management obviously deserves some credit, but I also think they had more than their fair of good fortune to go with it. It would be hard to blame him for thinking he's got some kind of magic touch. The amount of wins they added from cast-offs was pretty astounding the last 3 years. To that extent that it's due to their skill, it may be replicated, but I don't think even the very best in the business can sustain that success rate without a strong farm system.

[ReasonablySober]

Read on Twitter

Ryu, Wheeler, Keuchel, and Madbum are all getting at least that next season.

[Turk Nowitzki]

Read on Twitter

Ryu, Wheeler, Keuchel, and Madbum are all getting at least that next season.

They might've paid a premium for the one year deal but yeah, nobody is coming cheap this offseason.

[Kerb Hohl]

Right, so put those two things together and if they don't pick a direction, then Stearns is basically an idiot (or just completely misjudged the market this offseason).

He could just be overconfident in his ability to unearth gems. Their scouting and management obviously deserves some credit, but I also think they had more than their fair of good fortune to go with it. It would be hard to blame him for thinking he's got some kind of magic touch. The amount of wins they added from cast-offs was pretty astounding the last 3 years. To that extent that it's due to their skill, it may be replicated, but I don't think even the very best in the business can sustain that success rate without a strong farm system.

The optics would still be messed up if they slashed $20+ million from payroll to "unearth gems." I'm sure some of the free agents or trade targets will be in some sort of "buy low" capacity but they should be trying to win if they keep Yelich and the rest of their gang.

[Kerb Hohl]

What about this offseason?

Kyle Seager/Narvaez for some middling prospect package
Dom Smith/Lowrie for a bag of baseballs
Cron for cheap to platoon at 1B
Some collection of 2 or 3 of Miley, Lyles, something else at pitcher in free agency

I know that twirly will probably come in and say Dom Smith has red flags but that team has roughly the same firepower as last year on offense and arguably more stability to start the year in the pitching category.

This is going off of reports that the Mets are willing to package Smith to get rid of the Lowrie contract and a bit of a salary dump for Seager, who is basically Mike Moustakas 1 year older (and with some recent injury risk).

[coolhandluke121]

What about this offseason?

Kyle Seager/Narvaez for some middling prospect package
Dom Smith/Lowrie for a bag of baseballs
Cron for cheap to platoon at 1B
Some collection of 2 or 3 of Miley, Lyles, something else at pitcher in free agency

I would be fine with all of that, but I don't think Seager's salary is so bad that they'd give away Narvaez to unload him. And if they're taking Lowrie and Seager anyway, why not just sign Moustakas and Grandal? It's not like they can't afford to pay them while they rebuild after Yelich signs a $40m+ contract elsewhere.

That's the part I don't get if they're really going to spend. Moustakas and Grandal liked it in Milwaukee and they fit in perfectly. They're probably the two biggest needs on the roster. They were both all-stars last year, are probably much better than Seager and Narvaez this year, and they have no injury history. And they would have kept the payroll below last year's levels, too.

Not saying I would have signed this guys, but it makes me wonder how willing they really are to spend for a contender while they still have Yelich. Mark A is competitive, but he also prefers to avoid operating losses (regardless of his investment gains).

[Kerb Hohl]

What about this offseason?

Kyle Seager/Narvaez for some middling prospect package
Dom Smith/Lowrie for a bag of baseballs
Cron for cheap to platoon at 1B
Some collection of 2 or 3 of Miley, Lyles, something else at pitcher in free agency

I would be fine with all of that, but I don't think Seager's salary is so bad that they'd give away Narvaez to unload him. And if they're taking Lowrie and Seager anyway, why not just sign Moustakas and Grandal? It's not like they can't afford to pay them while they rebuild after Yelich signs a $40m+ contract elsewhere.

That's the part I don't get if they're really going to spend. Moustakas and Grandal liked it in Milwaukee and they fit in perfectly. They're probably the two biggest needs on the roster. They were both all-stars last year, are probably much better than Seager and Narvaez this year, and they have no injury history. And they would have kept the payroll below last year's levels, too.

Not saying I would have signed this guys, but it makes me wonder how willing they really are to spend for a contender while they still have Yelich. Mark A is competitive, but he also prefers to avoid operating losses (regardless of his investment gains).

It would've been pretty damn close.

The Brewers are at $71 million projected right now after chopping all of the arby guys.

Add $33 million for Mous/Grandal this year and you're at $104 already. If they wanted to add any pitching in free agency they'd hit $120-125.

I do think Stearns has some bit of an eye toward the future and post-Yelich life and that is part of the reason for not signing Yaz/Moustakas but I also think they'll put something competitive out there this year.

[trwi7]

What about this offseason?

Kyle Seager/Narvaez for some middling prospect package
Dom Smith/Lowrie for a bag of baseballs
Cron for cheap to platoon at 1B
Some collection of 2 or 3 of Miley, Lyles, something else at pitcher in free agency

I know that twirly will probably come in and say Dom Smith has red flags but that team has roughly the same firepower as last year on offense and arguably more stability to start the year in the pitching category.

This is going off of reports that the Mets are willing to package Smith to get rid of the Lowrie contract and a bit of a salary dump for Seager, who is basically Mike Moustakas 1 year older (and with some recent injury risk).

This team is worse than last season's whose margin was already razor thin.

[humanrefutation]

Sale is an interesting target as he has a full no-trade clause that goes into affect next season. So if Boston wants to move him, they're gonna have to move him now.

[jimmybones]

All the salary slashing had me thinking they had plans to spend that money on something somewhat big. Short of an all out rebuild, which I just don’t see happening. I think the most likely scenario is a combination of adding a handful of expensive good to really good free agents and then filling out the depth with diamond in the rough additions they peg as likely bounce back players, or guys blocked, etc. The Urias trade is a good example of getting creative to potentially upgraded and save money.

I’m just curious if they have something large in mind. I just keep coming back to the question, if they plan to compete, unless it’s Rendon, why not just pay moose?

[Kerb Hohl]

What about this offseason?

Kyle Seager/Narvaez for some middling prospect package
Dom Smith/Lowrie for a bag of baseballs
Cron for cheap to platoon at 1B
Some collection of 2 or 3 of Miley, Lyles, something else at pitcher in free agency

I know that twirly will probably come in and say Dom Smith has red flags but that team has roughly the same firepower as last year on offense and arguably more stability to start the year in the pitching category.

This is going off of reports that the Mets are willing to package Smith to get rid of the Lowrie contract and a bit of a salary dump for Seager, who is basically Mike Moustakas 1 year older (and with some recent injury risk).

This team is worse than last season's whose margin was already razor thin.

Depends what you do with the pitching.

You'd have Hiura all year, Dom's upside, less reliance on the Burnes/Peralta starting pitching projects, Knebel back, Cain hopefully healthy, Urias.

There would obviously be guys that can regress/injuries/bad things that can happen but I could see a path where that team is pretty good.

[Wisky4life]

If you were preparing for post yelich life, you could afford the moose and Grandal deals then. If we went all out on those guys and added an ace pitcher, we would be sitting at like $130 mil and contend.


I think Sterns is leaning to cheap, high upside guys, so more prove it deal guys again.

Not what I prefer right now but is what we are going to have to deal with. The payroll dilemma is a real problem for us.

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