Brewers/Reds Series

[MickeyDavis]

Reds will likely have something to play for, at least at the start of the series. Brewers weekend rotation up in the air. I assume Miz will pitch.

Friday - 7:10 - Priester vs. Littell
Saturday - 6:15 - TBA vs. Abbott - FOX
Sunday - 2:10 - TBA vs. Singer

[coolhandluke121]

Magic number = 1 Brewers win (3 left) or one Phillies loss (5 left, down 1-0 tonight).

Lots of talk about "stumbling" into the playoffs. I think the mid-summer run set expectations out of whack. Here's the change in record for all 8 playoff contenders in the NL since the month began:

Phillies: +6
Diamondbacks: +5
Reds: +2
Brewers: +1
Dodgers: 0
Cubs: 0
Padres: 0
Mets: -4

I get it. How dare they not continue being one of the 5 best regular season teams of the century? Can we really be expected to cope with the possibility that a few other teams in the NL might be basically just as good as the Brewers? But they're not really doing bad - just looking a little vulnerable like basically everyone else.

The playoffs are always a crapshoot. We knew that during the 14-game winning streak, and knew that the crapshoot might work us against if expectations remained at their early August level. Now we just hope that the crapshoot works in our favor as a bit of an injury-plagued underdog. That's nothing new, unless you allowed the July/August dominance to set a new baseline for you.

[Profound23]

So if Phillies lose tomorrow, do Brewers celebrate Fri no matter what?

[Profound23]

Magic number = 1 Brewers win (3 left) or one Phillies loss (5 left, down 1-0 tonight).

Lots of talk about "stumbling" into the playoffs. I think the mid-summer run set expectations out of whack. Here's the change in record for all 8 playoff contenders in the NL since the month began:

Phillies: +6
Diamondbacks: +5
Reds: +2
Brewers: +1
Dodgers: 0
Cubs: 0
Padres: 0
Mets: -4

I get it. How dare they not continue being one of the 5 best regular season teams of the century? Can we really be expected to cope with the possibility that a few other teams in the NL might be basically just as good as the Brewers? But they're not really doing bad - just looking a little vulnerable like basically everyone else.

The playoffs are always a crapshoot. We knew that during the 14-game winning streak, and knew that the crapshoot might work us against if expectations remained at their early August level. Now we just hope that the crapshoot works in our favor as a bit of an injury-plagued underdog. That's nothing new, unless you allowed the July/August dominance to set a new baseline for you.

Problem is Brewers always struggle around the past 2-3 weeks of the regular season then they end up really struggling when the playoffs get started. If they get swept in their first series or win only one game this season will be similar to the past four years and it's frustrating.

[MickeyDavis]

So if Phillies lose tomorrow, do Brewers celebrate Fri no matter what?

Yes.

[Profound23]

So if Phillies lose tomorrow, do Brewers celebrate Fri no matter what?

Yes.

I kind of hope Philly keeps winning so we have to celebrate after a win

[Thunder Muscle]

Reds just lost. They are not in good shape as have to jump both Arizona and NYM now.

My biggest worry with the Crew is the pitching. Woodruff likely out for the year. No guarantee any of Quintana, Megill, Hall, Henderson will be available. Miz in July seemed like a tough playoff matchup but obviously now he may not even be considered if can’t find control. Priester is suddenly number 2 and no idea how he handles the pressure, even a passionate guy like Uribe could be a wild card when season is on the line.

[coolhandluke121]

Problem is Brewers always struggle around the past 2-3 weeks of the regular season then they end up really struggling when the playoffs get started. If they get swept in their first series or win only one game this season will be similar to the past four years and it's frustrating.

Sure. It's always frustrating, and it will be even more frustrating if it happens when they were the best regular season team in baseball by any metric. But they still have as good a chance as anyone except maybe the Dodgers, who are getting healthy at the right time.

And that's what it comes down to, health. The Brewers aren't choking or stumbling, they're just fighting too many injuries. This is nothing like past iterations of the team with lots of holes that were eking out wins in close games while not having a great run differential. This team is still really good, and optimism should not depend on their recent record or on postseasons past. Their overall season performance is still the most accurate indicator of their quality IMO. Clearly, we don't have as much confidence as we did when the Brewers were dominating all of baseball, nor should we. But we also shouldn't have really expected that to continue, especially not once the injuries started piling up.

And that's my point - all of this disappointment in their recent performance risks losing all perspective, because we're really only disappointed relative to the absurdly high bar they set in July and early August. We shouldn't be any more disappointed in their September performance than any other NL fanbase except maybe Philly, and even they would probably have rather have Wheeler healthy than be the hottest NL playoff contender of the month. Momentum can turn on a dime.

[coolhandluke121]

Reds just lost. They are not in good shape as have to jump both Arizona and NYM now.

Technically they just have to catch them, not jump them, since they won the season series against both NYM and Arizona. They're already ahead of Arizona again, and they won today as well, so they're still fully in the mix.

[Profound23]

Let's win game one and celebrate.

[MickeyDavis]

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[MickeyDavis]

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[MickeyDavis]

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[Profound23]

Either way they have a bye in the first round.

But if this team gets swept and Phillies win out that's gonna be frustrating.

[blazza18]

Team has been struggling for a bunch of reasons. The week? off will do us good and hopefully freshen us up a bit.

[VooDoo7]

I have zero faith in this team entering the playoffs. The offense is beyond bad and I doubt they get it turned around anytime soon.

[MickeyDavis]

Shades of 82. Brewers lead the Orioles by 3 and finish with a 4 game series against them. Orioles win the first 3. Comes down to the finale. Two HOF's, Sutton vs. Palmer. Brewers win. That was when it was tough to make the playoffs. Two in each league. Let's hope it doesn't come down to Sunday.

[blazza18]

Read on Twitter

[Ryan5UW]

At this rate we’re going to become the first team in MLB history to lose a series on a bye

[coolhandluke121]

All units (rotation, bullpen, offense, defense) underachieving and/or injury-plagued at the same time, but that can turn around. Slumps always feel like they're never going to end until all of a sudden they do.

Some silver lining: the Reds are the best 6-seed for potentially upsetting some of the biggest threats in the playoffs. They're positioned to start Greene, Lodolo (assuming the groin injury really is day-to-day), and Abbott against the Dodgers, unless Greene pitches some innings on 3 days rest this Sunday. That's about as good of a rotation as any NL team can throw at LAD right now.

Getting healthy is far more important than the 1-seed, but it sucks that we're even still having this conversation. The (nearly) week off could work wonders.