Keeping pitchers healthy (by the numbers)

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I think we have 5 quality relief pitchers: Cordero, Gallardo, Villanueva, Turnbow and Wise. I think 2 innings every 3 days is a safe number for a relief pitcher over a season. That averages out to 120 innings per season.

I'll break the season into 10th's. 16 games in 18 days.

18 days / 3 day cycles = 6 full cycles.

6 full cycles X 5 relieif pichers pitching 2 innings per cycle = 60 innings in 16 games.

16 games X 9 innings = 144 innings

144 innings - 60 relief innings = 84 innings

16 games / 5 pitchers = 3.2 starts per pitcher

84 innings / 5 pitchers = 16.8 innings per 16 games / 3.2 starts per 16 games = 5.25 innings per start


By the numbers, we have the oppertunity to pitch each starter 5.25 innings each game and each reliever 2/3 inning every game. Over the course of a season like this, each starter would have 170 innings in a season. Each reliever would have 120 innings per season. I checked my work by adding the total number of innings of all of the pitchers based on my numbers and then dividing by 162. It gives 9 innings per game so my work is accurate.

Now, we will have some extra innings but we'll also have meaningless innings that are eaten up by Shouse or Spurling if we are behind so it cancels the extra innings out.

Now, with all of htis in mind, we don't have to overwork any of our pitchers. Hell, we don't even have to really work them to their capablities but things come up over a season, right. We're going to have some injuries.

The main point here is that we have room to play with our pithcers. There is no excuse for running an arm or group of arms into the ground because we have enough quality pitching ot get us through a full season.

I think our pitching is a real strength based on the numbers. Does it make sense? Just keep in mind that you don't have to follow this inning count every game straight to the end. It's just an average dirived by exterpolating from a 16 game cycle. It shows that we odn't have to over pitch our guys.