have the Yanks lost the arm race against Boston?

[Pharmcat]

Bos under 30:

beckett
dice k
buck
lester
masterson

with papelbon as the closer for the next who knows how many years

versus

wang
joba
???
???
???

even thou he is more fragile than pavano, lets put hughes in that list

wang
joba
phil
???
???

and rivera for only 2 more years

simple question, have the red sox won the arm race? or are the yanks just behind (by 2 years or so)??

[nykgeneralmanager]

You forgot Kennedy. Some people may not be high on him because of his struggles and injury this season, but the guy was ranked anywhere from 5-10 in terms of pitching prospects in baseball before this season, which was higher than any Red Sox other than Buchholz.

And you have to take into account guys who are very close such as Horne and McCutchen, and Boston doesn't have any relief prospect close to the majors that is nearly as good as either Cox or Melancon (Hunter Jones isn't that good), but both Bowden and Bard are pitching well in AA. And in the lower levels (still a long way to go) the Yanks blow the Red Sox out of the water with guys like McAllister, Betances, Heredia, Garcia, etc. compared to Hagadone, Doubront, and others.

With the success of Lester and small sample size success of Masterson (Buchholz is in AAA but pitching better now) plus the struggle/injuries to Hughes and Kennedy, Boston is obviously ahead. But if those two become healthy and pitch like they are expected to and Joba pitches well, its probably a draw as of now, but in our favor down the road.

[Pharmcat]

after repeatedly watching kennedy get thrashed this year, remind me why i should be xcited for him?

[nykgeneralmanager]

Because nobody in their right mind would declare a guy a bust after 37.2 innings in 2008? Especially when those same people were declaring him a future #2 pitcher after just 19 innings in 2007. Not to mention that the guy has made 19 starts above AA, its not as if he went through years of development in the minors. But I guess what is there to expect other than irrational impatience from us Yankee fans? You also feel that Hughes is a bust who is more fragile than Pavano, so what can I really say.

[Pharmcat]

phil has a growing list of injury problems that should worry every yankee fan, the hammy, the shoulder, the rib, oblique, etc

[VinnyTheMick]

Right now there is no doubt about it. I believe the final verdict is still out, though. The Yankees have a lot of great arms in the farm system that could end up contributing in big ways in the coming years.

I have lost almost all faith in Kennedy, btw. Nothing anyone tells me will change my mind. I want to see results. Until he gains anything resembling location I will look at him as a guy who belongs in the minors.

[nykgeneralmanager]

phil has a growing list of injury problems that should worry every yankee fan, the hammy, the shoulder, the rib, oblique, etc

Right, but Pavano has had multiple arm surgeries while Phil hasn't even had something as slight as a shoulder strain, all of his injuries are freak injuries and have nothing to do with his arm.

As for Kennedy, he has struggled with his control at the major league level, which usually signals inexperience or nerves. It even happened to legends like Maddux, who were absolutely horrendous their first few years. Through every level of the minors, Kennedy's BB/9 innings is a ridiculous 2.97, yet in the majors it nearly doubles to 5.5. I think that tells us all that we need to know, which is that he just needs to pitch and get experience and get comfortable. A guy like him needs to have his control and command to be effective, and he has been uncharacteristically wild.

[TKF]

also, boston young pitchers are a couple of years older than our young guys. Joba is 22, Hughes just turned 21, kennedy is what 22, boston has guys like lester who is already 24 and guys like papelbon and beckett are 26 and 27 right now, so they are a bit older and a bit ahead right now, but as NYGM said, that should change soon....

[nykgeneralmanager]

Good point about the age, TKF. Boston fans are excited because Buchholz is currently tearing up AAA. Meanwhile, he is TWO FULL YEARS older than Phil Hughes. Imagine if we let Hughes pitch this year, next year, and the year after in AAA? That is how ridiculously far ahead of the curve Hughes is, which is why it is absolutely crazy when people don't cut him some slack. The youngest pitcher in baseball and he can't catch a break from fans or freak injuries.

[cmaff051]

Boston is dwarfing us in the arms race right now, but anything can happen over the next few years. We have no shortage of talent, the key is turning that talent into production.

[TKF]

Good point about the age, TKF. Boston fans are excited because Buchholz is currently tearing up AAA. Meanwhile, he is TWO FULL YEARS older than Phil Hughes. Imagine if we let Hughes pitch this year, next year, and the year after in AAA? That is how ridiculously far ahead of the curve Hughes is, which is why it is absolutely crazy when people don't cut him some slack. The youngest pitcher in baseball and he can't catch a break from fans or freak injuries.

yea, I think some people forget how young guys like hughes are... Boston pitchers are a little older at this point.. again I think we pass them in a year or two...

[KNICKS1970]

In a year or two, Joba is going to be better than anyone the Red Sox have over there. Including Beckett.

Phil Hughes is only 21. He's was the 2nd youngest player in the MLB this year (Justin Upton being the only guy younger than him). He does have injury issues, but people forget how he came in the playoffs last year when Clemens crapped the bed and pitched great. I'm not entirely sold on Ian Kennedy, but Wang-Chamberlain-Hughes is a pretty solid future. And the Yankees being the Yankees, they have the means to plug in holes in the rotation by any means necessary.

Mark Melancon is being groomed for the closer's spot when Mo retires. Andrew Brackman also is a guy who has tons of upside.