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vincanityisdagr8est wrote:I would give him a 100 mil. Ichiro is unbelievable. He might not be as great an outfielder as he is right now, but I think he'll still get his 200 hits, bat over .300 as so on.

34Celtic wrote:Torri Hunter is the only one I want/

cmaff051 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Yeah, just what we need, another old outfielder who is having a career year and isn't going to be worth what he is being paid.

HCYanks wrote:Ichiro is not worth 20 million a year. His year to year offensive production ranges from average to very good depending on where his batting average is. He's not a perennial all-star caliber player, despite his voting popularity. And his age can't be ignored. So let Bill Bavasi continue his reign of terror by grossly overpaying him.

Markos wrote:If this doesn't mean that Arod will be getting $30 million per year starting next year....then I don't know what does

hippie wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Ichiro's Runs Created over the last three seasons were 143, 114, and 113. So far this season he's at 77, which is a pace for 146, and would put him at a four-year average of 129. According to Hardball Times, the highest RC by any centerfielder in baseball over this period was 125, by Carlos Beltran last year. So Ichiro's four-year average is actually better than that of any centerfielder in any single season during that period. Ichiro primarily played right field over this period, so you won't find him on the list. But now that he's in CF, it appears he's the best offensive contributor in the game at that position.

If you call Ichiro a center fielder, here are the eight best individual offensive seasons by CF's in the last four years: Ichiro, Ichiro, Beltran, Sizemore, Ichiro, Damon, Ichiro, Edmonds.

In other words, he has easily been an all-star caliber player in all four of those seasons, and he has never been "average." So I don't know how you can make those claims.

Meanwhile, league-average Runs Created at the CF position has been about 70 over the same period, which puts Ichiro's offensive production at about 6 wins over league-average and 8 wins over replacement level. (That's apart from his glove, which is very good.) Tango Tiger once estimated that the economic value of one extra win is about $2.5 million, which would put Ichiro's offensive FMV at -- hey, look at that, $20 million per year! (On the free agent market, the value has been more like $4 million per win.) It's an even bigger bonus that he's a "face of the franchise" type who has a huge international following, meaning he's likely worth well in excess of the $2.5 million per win that other players normally justify.

Is age a factor? Yes, it is, especially for one who relies on speed so much. Still, it's clear that his contract value is commensurate with his recent contributions. He might spend the last year of his contract looking vastly overpriced... but of course, by then, he'll be an "expiring deal."

Bavasi has made some terrible decisions all right, but this is not one of them. This is less money per year than Bavasi spent on Jeff Weaver, Jose Vidro and Miguel Batista (combined), and I'd easily rather have Ichiro than all three of those guys.

HCYanks wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
For what it's worth, BP has a Marginal Value Above Replacement Player rating that has Ichiro's monetary value dropping pretty quickly, though PECOTA's never been that great at projecting Ichiro because of his unique skillset.