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Better starter in 08: Joba, Kennedy or Hughes?

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:25 pm
by cmaff051
Who do you think will be the best starter in '08. This is not factoring in innings because Joba's innings are going to be limited to around 150 next year while Kennedy and Hughes could feasibly throw 180-200 innings, but actual ERA performance.

I'll say Hughes. Joba has better stuff, but I have always been a big fan of Hughes' whole package. What Hughes lacks in velocity and stuff he makes it up with outsanding command of his pitches. We haven't seen the completely healthy Phil Hughes yet. And I expect him to work really really hard during Spring Training on his changeup.

I'm not as high on Joba as starter as many... the Verlander comparisions are completely wrong. Kennedy should be solid but he won't be as good as these two guys. Think Jered Weaver.

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:39 pm
by TKF
I like hughes and when healthy I think he throws about 94, and that is plenty fast, especially with his arsenal of pitches. I think he will be better than joba because right now he has better command and more pitches..

Now Joba I think will be a great starter, anytime you can throw in the high 90's not mid, but high, with control and that nasty slider, you are going to be tough as a starter...

I am just glad as hell we have both!

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 2:40 pm
by Starksfor3
I'd say Hughes as well. I'm hoping he gains some of that velocity back along with confidence in that third pitch (change-up probably). Joba will probably take some time getting used to starting again and doing it against Major League lineups. Kennedy is behind Hughes and Joba because his stuff isn't as good. He'll still be pretty damn impressive though because he is probably the most polished of the three and just flat out knows how to pitch.

I really hope all these guys stay healthy because a rotation of:

Hughes
Chamberlain
Wang
Kennedy
5th starter (Horne?/FA)

has me absolutely giddy about our future.

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:33 pm
by Jitpal
I have all the confidence in Hughes again. Everything he lost after his injury, he regained in the playoffs. At the very least you know Hughes will be a big game pitcher and is going to battle and to me that is the most important thing about a pitcher. Especially considering his stuff and that mentality, he will be a true ace. Chamberlain has the stuff, he has the mentality but we haven't seen him start yet and we haven't really seen his curve or changeup yet. While I think he will be very good, I'm not ready to anoint him ace status yet. -Jitpal

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 6:17 pm
by theknicks414
August/September was Hughes' spring training and what you saw in the playoffs is what you'll be seeing all next year from our future #1. The best part about this poll is we have all three of the starters! :)

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:35 pm
by PR07
I think Hughes will be consistently better, but Joba is going to have games where he's simply unhittable.

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 10:05 pm
by Fury
I'll go with Chamberlain. Chamberlain just went through the minors like nothing, and he was as good if not better than Hughes, with better stuff, so I think he'll be better. I think Kennedy is underrated. Start for start he was better than Hughes this year. Hughes showed us something in the playoffs though. But I definitely agree with the Jered Weaver comparisons. That's exactly who I think of when I look at his stuff. Bottom line, it's good to have all three.

Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 11:33 pm
by Pharmcat
factor in Wang + Andy, and we have a solid homwgrown rotation :clap:

Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 5:49 pm
by nykgeneralmanager
Hughes in '08 and beyond. He is simply the complete package. As I've stated in the past, he is a once in a decade type of pitching prospect. Forget his raw stuff (which is incredible when his changeup is working), but his control is simply unparalleled by a pitcher as young as him, and his mental makeup and poise on the mound.

Two things happened this season to cause people to kind of forget what Hughes is all about: His injury and the emergence of Joba. He not only had to take the back seat in baseball because of his injury, but he had to take the back seat in the Yankee organization because Joba was so dominating and came with such an amazing story that nobody could get enough of. People forgot what Hughes is, and they will be reminded next season.

Posted: Fri Oct 12, 2007 7:59 pm
by Basketball Jesus
I still like optimistic projection that Hughes is a legit #2 starter for any team next season. I think Will Carroll (or somebody in a BP chat) said that the only thing preventing Joba from being a very good starter is the abrupt finish in his delivery causing unnecessary fatigue which may prevent him from being a dependable 6+ inning starter. Whatever. He still has some of the nastiest-looking pitches in the league. If he becomes a dominant reliever instead of an OK starter, is that really a bad thing?

I really don

Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 12:43 am
by Fury
Kennedy was impressive in that he started slow a few times, and always got out of innings. I didn't see the whole game he pitched in Toronto, but I saw his last few innings and he was striking people out left and right. He can be dominating too.

Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 1:42 am
by nykgeneralmanager
Kennedy has been named the Minor League starting pitcher of the year. He is obviously the most forgotten of our big 3 and the one that everybody feels has the lowest ceiling. While that is probably true, Kennedy has done nothing but prove people wrong. People thought he had lost his velocity and was sitting 86-88 mph, obviously he proved that to be wrong. People thought he was a joke of a draft pick for the 1st round, wrong again. People thought he was very hittable, so he went out and allowed 104 hits in 165 innings at all 4 levels this season. People said because he doesn't throw 95, he can't strike guys out, so he struck out 178 batters in 165 innings between all 4 levels this year. Those same people all said he'd be nothing more than a #4 starter, maybe an average #3 because he has fringe stuff with plus control. So I think it is safe to say that we have a #3, maybe #2 starter on our hands, because he has clearly shown off 2 plus pitches with plus control of 3-4 pitches.

Funny thing is he may be our #5 starter by the time guys like Horne or Betances get here, so I guess TECHNICALLY, those people would be right. :lol:

Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 3:12 am
by Pharmcat
the hate on kennedy is soo unncessary...we know he isnt a #1 or #2, but we dont need him to be one.....we'll have Phil, Joba, Wang, Andy, then at the 5 spot, we can place him there......he is more than talented to handle the 5 spot sucessfully....he isnt lights out, but he does have a place in the future yanks rotation

Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 2:28 pm
by TKF
nykgeneralmanager wrote:Kennedy has been named the Minor League starting pitcher of the year. He is obviously the most forgotten of our big 3 and the one that everybody feels has the lowest ceiling. While that is probably true, Kennedy has done nothing but prove people wrong. People thought he had lost his velocity and was sitting 86-88 mph, obviously he proved that to be wrong. People thought he was a joke of a draft pick for the 1st round, wrong again. People thought he was very hittable, so he went out and allowed 104 hits in 165 innings at all 4 levels this season. People said because he doesn't throw 95, he can't strike guys out, so he struck out 178 batters in 165 innings between all 4 levels this year. Those same people all said he'd be nothing more than a #4 starter, maybe an average #3 because he has fringe stuff with plus control. So I think it is safe to say that we have a #3, maybe #2 starter on our hands, because he has clearly shown off 2 plus pitches with plus control of 3-4 pitches.

Funny thing is he may be our #5 starter by the time guys like Horne or Betances get here, so I guess TECHNICALLY, those people would be right. :lol:


Yea, I remember greg maddux in his prime. Probably threw 90-92 at the hardest, put his pinpoint control, and array of pitches made him just dominant. You dont' have to throw 95 to be dominant. If you can control the strike zone and at least throw 91 to make them respect your fastball, you can be dominant.. Now guys like joba who throw 99 are just special, and I do remember Hughes throwing 94 which is plenty fast enough... I am excited about our young pitching..

Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 6:49 pm
by earthmansurfer
I votedJ Chamberlain, but my gut said Hughes. Tough one cause of the Dominance of Joba this year. It basically took a bug infested Twilight Zone night, that will go down in infamy, to get to this kid. Hughes is everything you all mentioned, I just feel that Joba is growing at such a fast rate and it will continue. They are both two pitchers who I wouldn't be shocked at if either one dominated. Hughes was set back with the injury, that game he had the no hitter going he was dominant. I think he will get that package back. When is the last time we had this kind of talent coming up? Like when the stadium was built? ;)

Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 8:51 pm
by Da Schwab
I'm going to go with Phil, as well.

But, I really like Ian for some reason. He reminds me a wee lil' bit of Andy Pettitte in his young age.


As for Joba, I really want the Yanks to make him their version of Papelboose. I salivate at the thought of him being the next dominant closer after Mo is done, plus the rivalry he and Papsmear will have, if that happens.

Posted: Sat Oct 13, 2007 11:16 pm
by nykgeneralmanager
gunnabdaschwab09 wrote:I'm going to go with Phil, as well.

But, I really like Ian for some reason. He reminds me a wee lil' bit of Andy Pettitte in his young age.


As for Joba, I really want the Yanks to make him their version of Papelboose. I salivate at the thought of him being the next dominant closer after Mo is done, plus the rivalry he and Papsmear will have, if that happens.

It can be debated for days about what is more important between a dominant closer or an ace pitcher. There is no stat to prove one being that much more important than the other. Personally, I feel that recent history and logic point to an ace being 10 times more valuable than a great closer.

First, the common sense. Would you prefer to have a guy dominate for 200 innings a year, or 70 innings? The Yankees wanted Rivera to be a dominant starter, the only reason he became the closer was because he posted a 5.51 ERA in 1995 when he split time as a starter and reliever. This is the case with many closers, they are mostly failed starters (whether they failed in college or the majors or the minors). That's another common sense aspect, if the major league teams wait until a guy sucks as a starter to convert him to a reliever, I think there is reason behind that.

Now, the past history aspect. Just look at the recent champions and what they were built on. In 2001, the DBacks had two of the best pitchers in baseball in Johnson and Schilling, yet theur closer was nothing special (Kim had a good season in 2001, but nobody in their right mind would call him a dominant closer, and he blew 2 saves in the series). In 2002, the Angels obviously had a dominant closer, but their starting pitching was phenominal as well (4 starters with an ERA of 3.92 or less, one had an ERA of 3.15 and one of 3.66). The 2003 Marlins were built on young stud starters of Beckett, Willis, Penny, even Redman had a 3.59 ERA. Their closer? Braden Looper. We all know what the 2004 Red Sox were about, Pedro and Schilling. Foulke was a pretty good closer for a period of a few years, but not a dominant closer by any stretch of the imagination. The White Sox in 2005 had four shutdown starters and their closer was Dustin Hermanson. Yes, Dustin Hermanson. The Cardinals last season had pretty bad starting pitching, but they were also one of the biggest fluke teams in baseball history. Although their starters sucked, they managed to just dominate in the playoffs and Adam Wainwright closing.

Even if you want to ignore those teams, look no further than our very own Yankees. When we had Cone, Wells, Pettitte, Clemens, El Duque, etc. we won and rolled through everybody. In the past 7 years, we've had to settle for Contreras, Vazquez, Kevin Brown, Mussina, Lieber, an old Randy Johnson, and an old Roger Clemens, suddenly we can't win anything. You know what has stayed the same over those two separate periods? A dominant offense and a dominant closer. Unless you have 2 stud pitchers (Indians this season are a perfect example), it won't matter how good your closer is. Joe Borowski saved 45 games for a 96 win team with an ERA over 5.

Let Joba and Hughes run this rotation along with Kennedy, Wang, and Horne. We'll piece together the closer spot through free agency or the minors.

Forget about a rivalry with Papelbon, if Hughes and Joba reach their potential as starting pitchers then we will blow Boston out of the water and we won't have to worry about Joba vs Pap. I'm more worried about what is in the best interest of this team, and that is having Joba pitching for 200 innings. The beauty of it is that even if he can't be successful as a starter (whether he just sucks or can't handle the workload) we know that he can fall back on being a dominant closer down the road in 2010 or so. But based on his track record in the minors, his stuff, and what he showed up here this season, I can't imagine him being bad in the majors as a starter.