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ESPN - ESPN's Buster Olney reported in his blog that the Twins want this three-player package from the Yankees, in any Santana conversation: pitcher Phil Hughes and center fielders Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson.

i would do these trade in a heartbeat. the yankees would win the championship with the best player and pitcher.
this pitching could be the best in baseball

SP
Santana
Wang
Joba
Moose
Ian

I make that trade in a second.

I wouldn't touch that deal. Hughes won't be as good as Johan but Johan isn't going to be 225 million better than Hughes in the next 6 years. Who would play CF for us? Damon? Rowand? Jones? Too much money for probably the same amount of wins. I doubt we would more than 97-98 with that team. We could win 97 with the team as currently constructed. Johan doesn't have great October numbers while Hughes does. I would not do it. I'd wait until he becomes a free agent next year, which he will. -Jitpal

Jitpal wrote:I wouldn't touch that deal. Hughes won't be as good as Johan but Johan isn't going to be 225 million better than Hughes in the next 6 years. Who would play CF for us? Damon? Rowand? Jones? Too much money for probably the same amount of wins. I doubt we would more than 97-98 with that team. We could win 97 with the team as currently constructed. Johan doesn't have great October numbers while Hughes does. I would not do it. I'd wait until he becomes a free agent next year, which he will. -Jitpal

you go and get a roward or jones we dont need a big bat anymore for that position we need someone who can play D and hit in the 5th or 6th spot and get some RBIs for us

Jitpal wrote:I wouldn't touch that deal. Hughes won't be as good as Johan but Johan isn't going to be 225 million better than Hughes in the next 6 years. Who would play CF for us? Damon? Rowand? Jones? Too much money for probably the same amount of wins. I doubt we would more than 97-98 with that team. We could win 97 with the team as currently constructed. Johan doesn't have great October numbers while Hughes does. I would not do it. I'd wait until he becomes a free agent next year, which he will. -Jitpal

Usually you have some good points, but that might be the worst arguement for not making a trade I've ever seen.

You just compared 5.2 Postseason innings of Phil Hughes to 11 Career Postseason games of Johan Santana, 6 of which were when he was a reliever

The difference in our teams is we would be ready for October....right now we are not.

cmaff051 wrote:I make that trade in a second.

that is a hell of a steep price. I know this is johan, but wow... Last year, Johan didn't seem like the johan of a couple of years ago... care to tell us why you make that deal without blinking...

TKF wrote:-= original quote snipped =-




that is a hell of a steep price. I know this is johan, but wow... Last year, Johan didn't seem like the johan of a couple of years ago... care to tell us why you make that deal without blinking...

I love Hughes, have been a big fan of his since his Trenton days, but this is Johan Santana we are talking about. I don't think much of Melky Cabrera, I think his bat sucks and Austin Jackson is a nice prospect who is more than worth the price of Santana.

It all comes down to whether you think that Hughes could ever be as good, or even close to as good as Santana, and I don't think so. And I think his 2007 year was just a blip on the radar, he'll revert back to form next year. Not to mention the fact that he can pitch more than 200 innings next year, which Hughes can't.

You realize that Santana has put up one of the, if not THE, most dominant 4 year stretch in the last 50 years. To expect a guy to revert back to all time greatness is a stretch. I think you're more likely to see a situation where whoever gets Santana signs him to a 6 year extension of over 20 million a season and they get 6 seasons closer to his 2007 season versus his 2004-6 seasons. Don't get me wrong, that's still a Cy Young caliber performance but it is not all time greatness performance and to give up Hughes, who everyone expects to be fantastic and very much cost controlled over the time time frame, I don't know. That hurts me a bit. If I were a Yankees fan, I'd either use my bullets to fill other holes (like CF or the bullpen) or to acquire Cabrera because with the rise of your young pitching, finding a young offensive stud would seem more important long term. The Sox are in the same boat. mahalo
~Chach~

34Celtic wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Usually you have some good points, but that might be the worst arguement for not making a trade I've ever seen.

You just compared 5.2 Postseason innings of Phil Hughes to 11 Career Postseason games of Johan Santana, 6 of which were when he was a reliever

The difference in our teams is we would be ready for October....right now we are not.

It isn't like I picked his best work to compare to, that's all he has pitched. How can I compare more? In the limited sample Hughes has pitched exceptionally well. I don't think anyone could argue that Hughes was the best pitcher in the postseason not named Pettitte or Mo. I honestly don't believe adding Johan would make us instant world series contenders. Would we be better next year with Johan over Hughes? Probably. Would we be better over the next 6 years with Johan over Hughes? That is a matter of contention. Hughes will probably not be as good as Johan but Hughes entering his prime will be better than Johan in his decline. I think unless Santana hits free agency and then you can throw whatever money he wants his way. I don't think Boston will deal for him, unless the price goes down significantly, in which case we can re-enter the discussions. If he gets traded to the Angels or Dodgers, I don't see how there would be a contract extension. I see free agency. If he doesn't, then he doesn't. We can take Sabbathia, who will cost less. -Jitpal

If I'm Minnesota, I try to compete this year. A rotation with:

Santana
Liriano
Garza
Bonser
Slowey

....could be pretty good. They also have a decent bullpen, shut-down closer and two great hitters in Mauer and Morneau. If they fall out of it by the deadline, they can revisit trade talks. It's a shame their owner doesn't want to spend the money that he obviously has. The guy is supposedly richer than Steinbrenner.

From the Yankees perspective, this trade is costing you two damn good prospects and a young legitimate switch-hitting CF. Plus, you then have to pony up the money to re-sign him. Probably around 7 years for 154 million.

Is he worth it?

Jitpal wrote:-= original quote snipped =-


It isn't like I picked his best work to compare to, that's all he has pitched. How can I compare more? In the limited sample Hughes has pitched exceptionally well. I don't think anyone could argue that Hughes was the best pitcher in the postseason not named Pettitte or Mo. I honestly don't believe adding Johan would make us instant world series contenders. Would we be better next year with Johan over Hughes? Probably. Would we be better over the next 6 years with Johan over Hughes? That is a matter of contention. Hughes will probably not be as good as Johan but Hughes entering his prime will be better than Johan in his decline. I think unless Santana hits free agency and then you can throw whatever money he wants his way. I don't think Boston will deal for him, unless the price goes down significantly, in which case we can re-enter the discussions. If he gets traded to the Angels or Dodgers, I don't see how there would be a contract extension. I see free agency. If he doesn't, then he doesn't. We can take Sabbathia, who will cost less. -Jitpal

I'm just saying...Johan in October minus his first two years when he pitched out of the bullpen is really not that bad, in fact its very good.

To be honest, As much as i love Johan, Hughes is 7 years younger. Once johan 6 years is up he's going to be done. After that 6 years, Hughes will be entering his prime. I'm very leery of giving up hughes or joba simply because of their age and how they have proved to be above average mlb players already.

Any deal with Hughes I decline. Give them some combination of Kennedy, Cabrera, Jackson, Wang, Tabata, and Horne. Tabata OR Jackson plus Cabrera and Wang OR Horne and Kennedy.

No, I would not. People kind of forgot what Hughes is about because last year was a mess for him. First he was rushed to the majors, then he tore his hamstring, then his ankle was in a cast, then he had to pitch with a brace on his ankle. All while pitching as the youngest pitcher in ALL of baseball for the most scrutinized team in ALL of sports in a pennant race. I'm assuming that is a rather unique situation for your average 20 year old who turned 21 in the middle of the season. And the best part is that even through this crazy season that he went through, he still managed to put up spectacular numbers outsides of his walks. His ERA, his K/9, his H/9, and his BAA were mind boggling for such a young pitcher, none the less a rushed one with major injuries.

He is a classic power pitcher who gets all of his power from below his waste, just like Clemens. Give him an injured hammy and ankle and you take away a lot of his ability. I have never been so excited to watch a player than I will be to watch a healthy Phil Hughes next season. I truly believe he is going to blow people way with his ability.

Santana is incredible, the best in the game. But these numbers don't lie:
H/9:
2004 - 6.16; 2005 - 6.99; 2006 - 7.16; 2007 - 7.52

HR/9:
2005 - 0.85; 2006 - 0.92; 2007 - 1.36

BB/9:
2005 - 1.75; 2006 - 1.81; 2007 - 2.14

WHIP:
2004 - 0.92; 2005 - 0.97; 2006 - 1.00; 2007 - 1.07

BAA:
2004 - .192; 2005 - .210; 2006 - .216; 2007 - .225

OBP:
2004 - .249; 2005 - .248; 2006 - .257; 2007 - .272

SLG:
2004 - .315; 2005 - .346; 2006 - .360; 2007 - .405

OPS:
2004 - .564; 2005 - .594; 2006 - .616; 2007 - .678

The only thing that hasn't gotten worse is his K/9 rate. Nobody is denying the fact that his numbers are still amazing, but you also cannot deny the fact that they are getting worse.

He has thrown 931 innings in the last 4 years (including postseason) after throwing 458.2 innings the previous 4 years (including postseason and minor leagues). That is an incredible difference, and the fact that he has shown that trending decline from ages 25-28 worries me about what decline he will show from ages 29-32 (as he ages and has hundreds of more innings on his arm) and even beyond.

I am more than willing to bet that Santana's prime will end A LOT earlier than it should because of this. The face that he will cost $20 million more than Hughes makes it an easier decision to make. Also, let's not forget that we will have to include somebody like Tabata or Jackson, both of whom will be in our outfield sometime in 2009/2010.

Most importantly, we cannot break up this Hughes/Chamberlain duo. There is something VERY special here. Coming through the system together and breaking in together and rising through the majors together is something special for these guys, something that cannot be measured in numbers. Even if Santana is better than Hughes for the next 2-3 seasons, so be it. There is much more at stake here then a difference of 0.5 in ERA. Keep Hughes and let him make his name known in pinstripes along side Joba and the others.

^^^^great post

pretty much agree

we gotta keep phil and joba together

NYK gm we get your love for prospects and all but I'd much rather see the Yankees win world series than see Joba and Phil grow up together and get all mushy mushy.

Also, yeah Jackson and Tabata have the potential to be in our outfield in 09/10, but there are countless of others that are said to be can't miss prospects...remember when we signed Sardhina? Jackson Melian? Willy Mo Pena? Drew Henson? Eric Duncan? Brein Taylor? Ruben Rivera? Ricky Ledee? Kevin Maas? David Walling?

Not saying I think Jackson is the next Drew Henson but you can't put your future on two guys who haven't proved themselves above A ball, or someone you have never seen personally play.

34Celtic wrote:NYK gm we get your love for prospects and all but I'd much rather see the Yankees win world series than see Joba and Phil grow up together and get all mushy mushy.

Also, yeah Jackson and Tabata have the potential to be in our outfield in 09/10, but there are countless of others that are said to be can't miss prospects...remember when we signed Sardhina? Jackson Melian? Willy Mo Pena? Drew Henson? Eric Duncan? Brein Taylor? Ruben Rivera? Ricky Ledee? Kevin Maas? David Walling?

I don't want to keep them in pinstripes to be mushy mushy, look at the stats for Santana I just posted, plus the money difference, etc. I want to keep Hughes/Joba in pinstripes because they are 21 and 22 respectively, and have great chances to be MLB aces by ages 24/25. I feel confident that having two 24/25 year old aces helps your WS chances.

EDIT: Also, nobody is calling Tabata or Jackson a can't miss prospect. But that doesn't mean you should deal every prospect at every chance to get a star player. Sometimes those prospects DO in fact work out, you know.

nykgeneralmanager wrote:No, I would not. People kind of forgot what Hughes is about because last year was a mess for him. First he was rushed to the majors, then he tore his hamstring, then his ankle was in a cast, then he had to pitch with a brace on his ankle. All while pitching as the youngest pitcher in ALL of baseball for the most scrutinized team in ALL of sports in a pennant race. I'm assuming that is a rather unique situation for your average 20 year old who turned 21 in the middle of the season. And the best part is that even through this crazy season that he went through, he still managed to put up spectacular numbers outsides of his walks. His ERA, his K/9, his H/9, and his BAA were mind boggling for such a young pitcher, none the less a rushed one with major injuries.

He is a classic power pitcher who gets all of his power from below his waste, just like Clemens. Give him an injured hammy and ankle and you take away a lot of his ability. I have never been so excited to watch a player than I will be to watch a healthy Phil Hughes next season. I truly believe he is going to blow people way with his ability.

Santana is incredible, the best in the game. But these numbers don't lie:
H/9:
2004 - 6.16; 2005 - 6.99; 2006 - 7.16; 2007 - 7.52

HR/9:
2005 - 0.85; 2006 - 0.92; 2007 - 1.36

BB/9:
2005 - 1.75; 2006 - 1.81; 2007 - 2.14

WHIP:
2004 - 0.92; 2005 - 0.97; 2006 - 1.00; 2007 - 1.07

BAA:
2004 - .192; 2005 - .210; 2006 - .216; 2007 - .225

OBP:
2004 - .249; 2005 - .248; 2006 - .257; 2007 - .272

SLG:
2004 - .315; 2005 - .346; 2006 - .360; 2007 - .405

OPS:
2004 - .564; 2005 - .594; 2006 - .616; 2007 - .678

The only thing that hasn't gotten worse is his K/9 rate. Nobody is denying the fact that his numbers are still amazing, but you also cannot deny the fact that they are getting worse.

He has thrown 931 innings in the last 4 years (including postseason) after throwing 458.2 innings the previous 4 years (including postseason and minor leagues). That is an incredible difference, and the fact that he has shown that trending decline from ages 25-28 worries me about what decline he will show from ages 29-32 (as he ages and has hundreds of more innings on his arm) and even beyond.

I am more than willing to bet that Santana's prime will end A LOT earlier than it should because of this. The face that he will cost $20 million more than Hughes makes it an easier decision to make. Also, let's not forget that we will have to include somebody like Tabata or Jackson, both of whom will be in our outfield sometime in 2009/2010.

Most importantly, we cannot break up this Hughes/Chamberlain duo. There is something VERY special here. Coming through the system together and breaking in together and rising through the majors together is something special for these guys, something that cannot be measured in numbers. Even if Santana is better than Hughes for the next 2-3 seasons, so be it. There is much more at stake here then a difference of 0.5 in ERA. Keep Hughes and let him make his name known in pinstripes along side Joba and the others.

amen, I agree 100%. I definitely would not do this deal either, unless the Twins want to consider a package of Kennedy, Horne, Melky, Jackson/Tabata.

theknicks414 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



amen, I agree 100%. I definitely would not do this deal either, unless the Twins want to consider a package of Kennedy, Horne, Melky, Jackson/Tabata.

xactly how i feel, they can have a package of those cats, but not phil....if its not enuff to get johan, then we move on