Do you think Zito or Vogelsong will be the 4th pitcher? You could actually make a good case that both should be in and Lincecum would be the one to sit out, but that's not going to happen.
I'm not crazy about the playoff format, the first 2 games will be at AT&T park, then the final 3 games get played on the road in Cincinnati (as opposed to the former 2-2-1 schedule). This means the Giants need to come out sharp at home because winning 3 straight on the road will be very tough, although the Giants have been a pretty good road team this year. Cain took 2 regular season losses to the Reds and got hit for 8ER, so I'm a little nervous about it.
The other thing that makes me very concerned about this series is the Reds are loaded with right handed pitchers, in fact every one of their starters and their closer is a righty. The Giants were better against lefties than righties this year, and in particular Posey. Buster's OPS vs. left handers is a staggering 1.277, but against right handers it's a mediocre .822. And his batting average drops from .438 vs. lefties to .292 vs. righties. If Posey is neutralized, they're in trouble.
Giants to face Reds in playoffs
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