NLCS Rotation Thoughts

HiRez · Post #1 » by **HiRez** » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:22 am

Giants have some decisions to make. I've got to assume Zito will not be starting and Lincecum will make at least one start. I'm currently thinking like this:

Game 1 (home) Oct. 14: Vogelsong RHP
Game 2 (home) Oct. 15: Bumgarner LHP
Game 3 (away) Oct. 17: Cain RHP
Game 4 (away) Oct. 18: Lincecum RHP
Game 5 (away) Oct. 19: Vogelsong RHP
Game 6 (home) Oct. 21: Bumgarner LHP
Game 7 (home) Oct. 22: Cain RHP

All 4 pitchers had significantly better ERAs at home than on the road this year (not a big surprise). Cain can't pitch in the first two days without being on short rest, so that's why I start him 3rd, which also leaves him available to pitch a Game 7 on full rest. He has the best home and road ERA of those pitchers. Bumgarner has the best home ERA after Cain, that's why I start him in Game 2, so he can be back home for a Game 6. What I don't like is starting Lincecum on the road, because his road ERA was 6.43 vs. 4.15 at home. Maybe just hope he's erased whatever was wrong in the regular season? He certainly looked strong on the road in Cincinnati. An alternate lineup if you feel Lincecum deserves 2 starts but keeps him at home would be:

Game 1 (home) Oct. 14: Bumgarner LHP
Game 2 (home) Oct. 15: Lincecum RHP
Game 3 (away) Oct. 17: Cain RHP
Game 4 (away) Oct. 18: Vogelsong RHP
Game 5 (away) Oct. 19: Bumgarner LHP
Game 6 (home) Oct. 21: Lincecum RHP
Game 7 (home) Oct. 22: Cain RHP

So what are you guys thinking?

BelgianMagic · Post #2 » by **BelgianMagic** » Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:40 am

ESPN Has Bumgarner starting Game 1, Vogey Game 2 & Cain Game 3 so I think they see it as :

Game 1 (home) Oct. 14: Bumgarner LHP
Game 2 (home) Oct. 15: Vogelsong RHP
Game 3 (away) Oct. 17: Cain RHP
Game 4 (away) Oct. 18: Lincecum RHP
Game 5 (away) Oct. 19: Bumgarner LHP
Game 6 (home) Oct. 21: Vogelsong RHP
Game 7 (home) Oct. 22: Cain RHP

Either way, our pitching will have to be "2010 dominant" again, cause we've seen how good the Cardinals offense can be

I hope it's gonna be a great series (with a lil less drama

) and #OrangeOctober to continue vs DET/NYK 8-)

RIPskaterdude · Post #3 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:47 pm

Bum's major problem this year has been giving up the HR on the road, so starting him in game 1 or 2 is a good idea. I would be a little worried with him in game 5, but we'll see where it is then. But yeah, Belgian's rotation looks like what it's probably going to be.

Post #4 » by **TheLowlySquire** » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:55 pm

Looks like Timmy is available out of the bullpen in games 1 and 2, so I'm not sure if Bochy has plans to start him in game 4. I've really liked him in relief, but I really don't want to see Zito starting another game. It'll be interesting to see what Bochy decides.

Cards seem to do all their work against the bullpen, so the starters really have to go deep into the games so the bullpen doesn't get too tired.

HiRez · Post #5 » by **HiRez** » Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:09 pm

That's kind of the best of both worlds, maybe. Have Timmy available out of the pen in games 1 and 2, start game 4, then possibly be available for relief again for 6 or 7. I also don't want Zito starting but if he's on a short hook like the last time, maybe it'd be OK. But you need to know that your bullpen has a good possibility of getting worked there, and is Affeldt even healthy?

RIPskaterdude · Post #6 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:12 pm

Starting Zito @ St. Louis against a homer happy team in a homer happy ballpark seems like a horrible, horrible idea.

Post #7 » by **TheLowlySquire** » Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:47 pm

Baggs said after Game 5 that Affeldt would be fine. We'll have the same 25 man roster as we did last series. I was kind of hoping we'd take out Mota for this series cause he was pretty bad/useless in the NLDS. I really was hoping that we'd add Peguero so we'd have some speed on the base paths. Sanchez and Arias are the only guys on the bench I have any confidence in, but they're both pretty streaky. At least we'd know exactly what Peguero would bring us.

RIPskaterdude · Post #8 » by **RIPskaterdude** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:11 am

TheLowlySquire wrote:Baggs said after Game 5 that Affeldt would be fine. We'll have the same 25 man roster as we did last series. I was kind of hoping we'd take out Mota for this series cause he was pretty bad/useless in the NLDS. I really was hoping that we'd add Peguero so we'd have some speed on the base paths. Sanchez and Arias are the only guys on the bench I have any confidence in, but they're both pretty streaky. At least we'd know exactly what Peguero would bring us.

I think it's because Bochy still has no faith in his starting pitching, so the more relief pitching, the better.