Strasburg

[blackery3000]

How depressing is it to watch this guy? He's looking like the best college baseball player ever. EVER! Absolutely filthy stuff.

If only we hadn't swept that last series versus the A's we could potentially have had a rotation featuring Felix, Strasburg, Morrow, Aumont and Olsen. Put a decent offense behind those arms and the M's are playoff bound.

But alas, it wasn't meant to be.

[Ex-hippie]

I found a link to a website breaking down Strasburg's delivery and mechanics, and posted it in a draft thread. Long story short, the conclusion is that his mechanics are disturbingly similar to Mark Prior's, complete with the dreaded "inverted W" (why they do not simply call this an "M" is beyond me). I've read elsewhere that the similarities aren't that great; Prior doesn't balance his body as well and doesn't kick out as far, forcing him to generate a lot of motion from his elbow. I'm no expert so I don't know what to make of it, but perhaps it's some consoliation if the Nats take him.

[blackery3000]

I dunno, I think if there were legitimate concerns about Strasburg's mechanics we'd have heard a significant number of scouts voice them by now. There's always an inherent injury risk in drafting any pitcher—regardless of mechanics—due to the nature of the position. Given Strasburg's ceiling and current track record, I think the M's should be willing to pay top dollar to take such a risk if Washington isn't, which although unlikely, is a definite possibility. I don't think you can pass on a once-in-a-generation talent like this based on the off-chance he might blow out his arm.

[Sweezo]

But what if Boras follows through with his rumored threat to treat Strasburg, given his dominance, as a Dice-K esque posting? If Boras is going to demand $40 million to sign Strasburg, what happens?

[Basketball Jesus]

There’s something to the inverted W mechanical issue but I don’t necessarily buy the pathway to inevitable injury that people seem to be painting it out to be. Sure, when an inverted W guy with supposedly flawless mechanics like Prior flames out, it’s a possible red flag but almost every retro-discovered player with the inverted W had other extenuating circumstances that were equally plausible causes for their injuries. Until there’s a definite player whose injury can be attributed to nothing but the W, it’s more mechanical oddity than automatic death.

[blackery3000]

But what if Boras follows through with his rumored threat to treat Strasburg, given his dominance, as a Dice-K esque posting? If Boras is going to demand $40 million to sign Strasburg, what happens?

While his numbers dwarf anything we've ever seen from a college pitching prospect, I don't think Boras can demand a contract worth quadruple what David Price got. If he does that's just gross. Strasburg's scary good but his ceiling isn't four times as high as Price's, especially when you factor in the concerns about his mechanics.

This might sound like wishful thinking (and it is), but I think Boras' maneuvering could be to out-price the stingy Nats so Stras can stay close to home on the West Coast. If Boras can get Washington to pass then Strasburg won't fall past the M's—or oven more to his liking: the Padres—so this could very well be Boras blowing hot air in an effort to save his client from the hell that would be playing in D.C. But if you're the Nats I think you have to call his bluff; even if they aren't able to sign Strasburg they'll receive a compensatory pick in the '10 draft and will probably be the worst team in baseball again.

Side note: I actually think the Nats' offense will surprise this year with young bats such as Dukes, Milledge and Zimmerman plus a proven veteran in Dunn. Too bad they have a terrible rotation.

There’s something to the inverted W mechanical issue but I don’t necessarily buy the pathway to inevitable injury that people seem to be painting it out to be. Sure, when an inverted W guy with supposedly flawless mechanics like Prior flames out, it’s a possible red flag but almost every retro-discovered player with the inverted W had other extenuating circumstances that were equally plausible causes for their injuries. Until there’s a definite player whose injury can be attributed to nothing but the W, it’s more mechanical oddity than automatic death.

Agreed. I believe there is a correlation between the inverted W and injury, but there are a ton of other factors that need to be considered as well. It would be unscientific to assume anyone whose mechanics feature the inverted W is fated for TJ surgery, although in Strasburg's case it is cause for worry. I just think the gains outweigh the risks in his case.

[Ex-hippie]

There’s something to the inverted W mechanical issue but I don’t necessarily buy the pathway to inevitable injury that people seem to be painting it out to be. Sure, when an inverted W guy with supposedly flawless mechanics like Prior flames out, it’s a possible red flag but almost every retro-discovered player with the inverted W had other extenuating circumstances that were equally plausible causes for their injuries. Until there’s a definite player whose injury can be attributed to nothing but the W, it’s more mechanical oddity than automatic death.

I wouldn't claim otherwise. However, there is at least some evidence of a correlation, and it has to be figured into the cost-benefit analysis. Strasburg's issues aren't only the inverted W either; they say his leg kick is slow, his follow-through is poor, he pronates his forearm too much, etc. Here's where I'm getting way out of my depth, so I'll stop. But I will just say, the risk has been identified and needs to be taken into account. If they can get past that, there's no question he's a flat-out stud.

While his numbers dwarf anything we've ever seen from a college pitching prospect, I don't think Boras can demand a contract worth quadruple what David Price got. If he does that's just gross. Strasburg's scary good but his ceiling isn't four times as high as Price's, especially when you factor in the concerns about his mechanics.

Being perceived as gross has never deterred Boras before...

On the other hand, while we might see $40 million as quadruple what David Price got, another way to look at it is $8 million less than what Carlos Silva got. And, leaving the injury concerns aside for a moment, Strasburg is already a much better pitcher, right now, than Carlos Silva is. With Washburn, Batista, Bedard and Beltre coming off the books after this season, I would think $40 million is a pretty good investment for 6 years of a pitcher who will be in the majors by the end of 2009 and possibly dominating from 2011-2014. If they don't see the mechanics as an issue, then I would say by all means, pull the trigger.

Another thing that bears mentioning is that pitchers taken #1 overall have never, ever lived up to their draft status. I still don't think that should deter anyone from taking Strasburg. You could say guards rarely make good #1 overall picks in the NBA, yet LeBron was a no-brainer in 2003. And there may be some other guys in this draft who are analogous to Melo and Bosh and Wade and, ahem, Darko, but Strasburg is the LeBron of this draft. Again, that's if they get past the injury issue, and they understand this stuff a lot better than I do.

[blackery3000]

Being perceived as gross has never deterred Boras before...

On the other hand, while we might see $40 million as quadruple what David Price got, another way to look at it is $8 million less than what Carlos Silva got. And, leaving the injury concerns aside for a moment, Strasburg is already a much better pitcher, right now, than Carlos Silva is. With Washburn, Batista, Bedard and Beltre coming off the books after this season, I would think $40 million is a pretty good investment for 6 years of a pitcher who will be in the majors by the end of 2009 and possibly dominating from 2011-2014. If they don't see the mechanics as an issue, then I would say by all means, pull the trigger.

Another thing that bears mentioning is that pitchers taken #1 overall have never, ever lived up to their draft status. I still don't think that should deter anyone from taking Strasburg. You could say guards rarely make good #1 overall picks in the NBA, yet LeBron was a no-brainer in 2003. And there may be some other guys in this draft who are analogous to Melo and Bosh and Wade and, ahem, Darko, but Strasburg is the LeBron of this draft. Again, that's if they get past the injury issue, and they understand this stuff a lot better than I do.

I think we're on the same page. Stasburg will get a historic contract, but I doubt it includes more than a $16 million signing bonus. Just my humble opinion. I have to be honest, the more I read the more I'm concerned about his propensity to sustain an injury at some point—without some sort of mechanical adjustment, which is asking a lot out of anyone older than 14 years old.

But I'd still be willing to draft him #1 overall, given the fact (as you mentioned) he'd be a great investment compared to the departing, overpaid bums the M's will say goodbye to next year.

Re: the Lebron comment—the funny thing about this year's draft: while Strasburg is clearly the "Lebron" of this draft, there is no indisputable Melo, Bosh and Wade. Instead we have Tyler Matzek, Alex White, Dustin Ackley, etc. who all have yet to clearly lay claim to the #2 spot and will likely be graded very closely by most organizational scouts.

I feel as if the M's are in the same place as Mitch Kramer was in Dazed and Confused, when Mathew McConaughey asks him if he has a joint. "No? Well it'd be a lot cooler if you did ..."

[Sweezo]

As great as the risk is or maybe, you have to give the nod to Strasburg. The point about there not being a clear #2 is well taken...Strasburg's talent level is so dramatic and advanced that it's hard to figure out what looks like the next best thing. While it's important to come out of the first round with a solid major leaguer, I have confidence in the front office to find good value in the later rounds and make necessary moves to add that kind of talent. Absent some certainty his pitching mechanics will ruin his career, you have to swing for the fences if Strasburg's available...