Per Wiretap, more trades a comin'

[TTown]

No surprise. Wiretap says we're shopping Aardsma and League, Lopez, and potentially Branyan, "if the organization chooses to move Montero to 1B." Obviously this was written before the Texas trade, and since we got a 1B who is close to ML ready, I suppose that may still be a possibility (though I like Branyan; unless we're wowed by something, stick him at DH and put Smoak at first come September call-ups/beginning next season, I say).

Also per Wiretap, Cliff Lee was open to an extension at the beginning of this season and again when he returned from the DL, but Seattle wanted no part of it. This could be agentspeak, but if he really did like his time in Seattle, and wasn't put off by the trade (he's an adult, hopefully he wouldn't be) I'd love to re-sign him....................... though I don't know if management would dive into the spending frenzy. But hell, he had to have loved Safeco, and with a better offense + upgraded bullpen, we should be next year where people thought we'd be this year.

Felix/Lee/Fister/Pineda/Vargas,

RF Ichiro
3B Figgs
DH Branyan
1B Smoak
CF Guti
2B Ackley
LF Saunders
C Moore
SS Wilson

Too soon for Ackley? Moore should be better, Saunders, too, and this is probably the bare minimum of what we could expect; FA signings/upcoming trades could/should bolster the line-up.

[BlackMamba]

Aardsma? Who would be the closer then?

[TTown]

This year, it doesn't matter too much. I'm sure they'll find something for next season... maybe Fields will finally get the call.

This time last year I thought we were set at closer for years when we converted Morrow and Aumonte to relievers. How times changes...

[Sweezo]

Given the amount of wins this team is looking at through the end of the year, a closer isn't a huge need for the rest of 2010. Aardsma also has a knack for pitching like a clown when he's in non-save situations. Personally, I don't care either way about trading him as I believe any trade value he accumulated last year has been pissed away this year.

I'd like to hang on to League as I think he'd make a good closer, but if we can get decent value for him then he he may as well be traded too.

As much as I'd like to bring Lee back but the market for him is going to be insane. True #1 pitchers don't hit free agency very often, and when pitchers that are thought of as aces [or potential aces] hit the market the numbers have been outstanding:

J. Lackey: 5 years/$82.5 million [$16.5 million per]
Sabathia: 7 years/$161 million [$23 million per]
A.J. Burnett: 5 years/$82.5 million [$16.5 million per]
B. Zito: 7 years/$126 million [$18 million per]

Sabathia's probably the best comp for Lee...former Cy Young award winner, will draw the interest of the Yankees, etc. Lee's a bit older [turns 32 next month] so really, this is his one big chance to cash in.

Could the M's afford to pay Lee $20-$25 million per year? I don't think they can...

Right now, the payroll's at about $92 million. Payroll has dropped steadily over the past few seasons, and with declining revenues due to the economy I don't think the payroll will buck the trend and go up next season.

Here’s a quick and dirty look at how I see the team shaping up next season. This isn’t going to be completely accurate but it’s a good foundation for discussion. Guaranteed contract add up to $62.1 million for players on the roster [plus $6.5 million for those not on the roster]. So we’re at $68.6 million with some holes to fill and no set numbers for arbitration eligible players and players under team control.

For the purpose of discussion, let’s assume Branyan’s $5 million option is exercised, Lopez is traded [if not, there’s a $250k buyout…I don’t see the team paying him $4.5 million]. Assume Bedard’s option $8+ million is declined [maybe the team does try to resign him, but…]. Assume Aardsma is dealt at the deadline [he's arbitration eligible, and given his season I can't see the team spending the money on him he would command].

Now you’re at $73.6 million…

So the M’s have $20 million left to cover the contract of two catchers, 1B , LF, three bench spots, 4/5 of their starting rotation, and the bullpen. The minimum salary tends to go up about $10k per year so I’m assuming it’s $415k next year.

Let’s say you assume the team brings Josh Wilson, Langerhans for about the same amount of money they made last year…

Assuming the above, I have the team at about $76.7 million with the roster listed below [again including money paid to players no longer on the roster] for 2011. Vargas will get a pretty nice raise, RRS may get a minimal raise, League will get a raise, and there’s nearly an entire bullpen and a rotation spot you haven’t accounted for financially.

C: Johnson [$450k?]
1B: Smoak [$415k?]
2B: Ackley [$1.5 mill.]
SS: Jo. Wilson [$5 mill.]
3B: Figgins [$9.5 mill.]
RF: Ichiro [$18 mill.]
CF: Guti [$4.3 mill.]
LF: Saunders [$415k?]
DH: Branyan [$5 mill. Option]
B: Bradley [$13.3 mill.]
B: Jo. Wilson [$450k?]
B: Langerhans [$550k?]
B: Moore [$415k?]

SP: Felix [$10.5 mill.]
SP: Vargas [Arb. Eligible]
SP: RRS [Arb. Eligible]
SP: Fister [$415k?]
SP: ?

RP: League [Arb. Eligible]
RP: S. White [Arb. Eligible]
RP: ?
RP: ?
RP: ?
RP: ?

Going out and getting Lee won’t happen. If I have to guess, he’s looking at 6 years at $22 million per in free agency. The M’s may have $5-$10 million to play around with this offseason. Maybe that number rises if they decline Branyan’s option [although his power is sorely needed], but not to the point where Lee becomes realistic. Maybe that number falls by +$3 million if the team keeps Aardsma, or $4.5 million if the teams keeps Lopez instead of bringing Ackley up. Surely the team would love to have Bradley's contract off the books but due to his production, attitude issues, and age I think we're stuck with him.

If we are bidding against the Yankees [who might have a chip on their shoulder and have the resources to ensure the team that didn’t trade Lee to them won’t get him back] we’re not getting Lee. In fact, I don't think anyone should expect this team to be a high bidder for any major names in free agency this year. This team next year is going to have to survive on bargain additions, trades, and some of the young talent stepping up and contributing.

[TTown]

Seattle's front office perplexes me. We were spending in the $80 million range between 2002-2006, then suddenly went nuts in '07 and '08 ($106, $117) before dropping down to $98 and and $86 the past two seasons. Obviously, spending $117 million for a 101 loss season in '08 won't scream to management that spending money = guaranteed wins, but they have shown a willingness to spend high above the league average.

[Sweezo]

When our salary was out of control, I think we had a couple things going for us that were a bit unusual [1] the team was drawing strong crowds, [2] our TV/radio deals were some of the most lucrative in the business, and [3] Japanese ownership seemed to view Ichiro and Johjima as luxuries for the cause.

[Ex-hippie]

Meanwhile, as the M's bullpen struggles with ineffectiveness, I'm enjoying watching Matt Thornton and Rafael Soriano in the all-star game today. Thanks, Bill Bavasi!

[Sweezo]

At least Thornton was a big reason the AL lost, right? RIGHT?

*sigh*

Nevermind...