Who should the Mariners draft?

[Sweezo]

With the second pick in round 2, the M's drafted a SS out of Clemson: Brad Miller. Some sites say his comp is Craig Counsell. Due to his unorthodox batting stance, I get the comparison.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xys1k9KdOpY

It may look goofy, but that doesn't mean it won't work for him.

[TTown]

I agree with everyone here that Rendon would have been my pick. But, allow me to play devil's advocate:

Bringing in a highly touted right handed 3B has never been kind to us. Jeff Cirrilo? Adrian Beltre? Chone Figgins? What if Rendon's power dip has more to do with the NCAA's new bats, and not his injury? His power went way down, but his doubles went way up -- what if he had warning track power now? Wouldn't that decrease even more switching to wood?

Our Virginia kid's bust factor is extremely low, and he projects out to be a damn fine arm pitching in Safeco. We have a lot of money coming off the books in the near future, isn't it entirely possible we went with the 'sure thing' (insomuch as there is a 'sure thing' in a draft) to bolster the rotation, and will drop some cash on a Major League-proven hitter?

/devil's advocate

[Sweezo]

We have a lot of money coming off the books in the near future, isn't it entirely possible we went with the 'sure thing' (insomuch as there is a 'sure thing' in a draft) to bolster the rotation, and will drop some cash on a Major League-proven hitter?

Proven hitter? Figgins says 'hello'...





There's certain things this regime does well, but it's hard to get a read on how well there are at signing premier free agents. Figgins was really our only attempt to throw money around under Jack Z [unless I am completely forgetting someone] and that's worked out quite poorly. I think Jack Z and his crew have managed to draft well, trade well, retain important players, and find value amongst lesser free agents...still have no idea what their approach would be with money to burn.

[Bulltalk]

I guess I've calmed down a bit. At least they went after a few bats with their next 2 picks. That may be an understatement, as Miller is a bit of a weak fielder with a strong bat, and Cron is big and slow and an average at best fielder with a big long ball bat.

In the end, it's wait and see, and hope that the M's brass know what they're doing. Everything I've read seems to suggest that Hultzen may be the quickest-to-the-majors player/pitcher, but that he has limited upside (though I'm sure such things were said like that about a lot of players who ended up having more upside). The word is that he's not #1 starter material, though the M's apparently view him in such a light. When you pick a pitcher #2 in a very strong draft for pitchers, you better hope management sees him in such a light. It may be a long time before we draft as high again.

Once upon a time the M's drafted Griffey and A-Rod with such high picks. And they drafted Ackley #2 the year before last, and he seems to be coming into his own his 2nd season down in AAA ball. Other 1st round picks of position players over the years of note (good or bad): Tino Martinez, Jason Varitek, Dave Henderson, Jose Cruz Jr., Jeff Clement, Nick Franklin, Adam Jones, Al Chambers, Ryan Christianson...

I'd have to do some research on this, but what have been the M's fortunes in picking pitchers high in the draft, or at least in the first round? Who has panned-out? Phillippe Aumont? Ryan Anderson? Gil Meche? Josh Fields? Brandon Morrow? Ron Villone? Roger Salkeld? Darrell Akerfelds? Bill Swift? Mike Campbell? Shawn Estes? Mike Moore? Matt Thornton?

It seems that when it comes to high picks/first round picks that the M's have done MUCH better drafting position players/hitters rather than pitchers. I'll take Griffey, A-Rod, Ackley, Tino Martinez, Jason Varitek, Adam Jones, Dave Henderson, and Nick Franklin over Shawn Estes, Gil Meche, Bill Swift, Brandon Morrow, Ron Villone, Phillipe Aumont, Ryan Anderson, and Josh Fields any day of the week.

But like I said, only time will tell. God forbid that Rendon isn't vying for ROY in a couple of years.

[TTown]

#1 LHP Danny Hultzen, Virginia
#2 SS Brad Miller, Clemson
#3 1B Kevin Cron, HS
#3 RHP Carter Capps
#4 C John Hicks, Virginia
#5 C Tyler Marlette, HS
#6 CF James Zamarripa, HS

So we've got Hultzen, Hultzen's catcher, then another catcher, and a former catcher who we're looking at as a reliever.

[Sweezo]

Ahhhh...but here's the problem: I don't think the issue is the M's track record in drafting pitchers, so much as it's the current front offices ability to evaluate [and work with] pitchers.

What pitching related decisions has Jack Z [and his team] made since he took over? They invested heavily in Felix Hernandez, last year they drafted Tyjuan Walker and James Paxton [who have both showed promise so far], moved Pineda up aggressively, exercise patience with E. Bedard when many in the fan base wanted to move on, saw value in a guy like Pineda, and brought in a slew of relievers that have actually been fairly successful [and others that are younger and still working on putting everything together].

The decisions haven't all been great. But this isn't a front office that has decided to invest heavily in a Carlos Silva type, or put a rotation together of soft-tossing journeymen. They seem to focus on adding power arms and trying to coach the hell out of them. They like their pitchers to have a pitch with downward movement to cause groundballs.

Look at that rotation in '08 before Jack took over. He weeded out types like Washburn, Silva, Roland-Smith, Baek, Batista, et al. in fairly short order.

They weren't handed much talent when they took over in '09. But they talent they did have they have handled very well IMO.

[Sweezo]

So we've got Hultzen, Hultzen's catcher, then another catcher, and a former catcher who we're looking at as a reliever.

And that former catcher hits in the high 90's with his pitches. Which is insane.

[TTown]

Yep. And he supposedly has above average control. Let him develop a third pitch over the next few years and I'd like to see the payoff. I like the pick.

[Ex-hippie]

Well, what I guess happened is that Boras denied team doctors access to Rendon, but instead hired his own doctor to write up an assessment that everything was just fine, and told teams to take it or leave it. And the Mariners evidently decided to leave it, as did three more teams after them. All they had to go by was the say-so of the agent, and the fact that Rendon is DH'ing and not hitting for as much power this year as before. And I have to admit, the #2 pick is an awfully high price to gamble on something like that. Among all the non-Rendon prospects, I guess Hultzen is as good as any of them (the more I read, the more I think people might be underestimating his upside).

[Zyme]

I thing more people are dissapointed that a hitter was not drafted, renton or Bubba. In baseball terms, with a name like bubba he's got to make the show. He's not Yogi or Catfish Hunter, but Bubba has to be good enough for at least a utility man.

[Sweezo]

In baseball terms, with a name like bubba he's got to make the show. He's not Yogi or Catfish Hunter, but Bubba has to be good enough for at least a utility man.

That made me wonder what the history of "Bubbas" in MLB was. The two players with the longest MLB careers were Bubba Morton [1961-1969] and Bubba Trammell [1997-2003]. 8 players named Bubba have made it to the major leagues, while 23 other Bubba's never made it out of the major leagues.

Looks like Bubba Starling has a chance to make history. The path to being the best MLB Bubba of all time is right there for the taking.

[Ex-hippie]

There's no point in drafting Starling just because he's a "bat," though. He's not going to be ready for a few years and is a risky, toolsy pick in any event. The M's have no shortage of toolsy outfielders in the system, and a couple of them are getting their shot right now. Drafting for need based on the current makeup of the team, when the player won't be ready for a long time, doesn't make much sense. Rendon would have been a different story because, if healthy, he'd be very close and could be plugged in at 3B in the near future.

[TTown]

Paying attention to Virginia baseball, for the first time... ever. Hultzen is scoreless through 4, 2 hits, to a good UC Irvine team in the Super Regionals. Rain delay. He also hit an RBI single.

[Ex-hippie]

He also hit an RBI single.

That's it, the third base job is his!

[jumanji]

I think some of the thinking on not drafting Rendon was the success that Alex Liddi has had at Tacoma. Bedard is year to year so the need for another frontline leftie is definitely there.

[Bulltalk]

From now on it's just going to be who pans-out better. If Rendon turns out to be the better player, then we made the wrong move. It's that simple.

[TTown]

Hultzen pitched 6.1 innings of 3H/no run ball as Virginia beat Cal 4-1 in both team's CWS opener.

[Zyme]

If he does make the show, can we have him hit 9th. He'd be better than our current 9 hitter.