The trade market for pitchers

[NateMustGo]

We have been without a #1 pitcher for so long that I'm willing to trade the farm system for Bedard a sure #1 for two years and we have a shot at getting to the series. Pull the trigger!

[Sweezo]

We don't have a shot at going anywhere with Bedard. How many wins do people think one pitcher of his quality is worth? Do people see Bedard alone putting us ahead of the Angels or competing for the Wild Card? Because I don't.

This team over performed last year, and it's foolish to believe they'll be that lucky again.

And if the M's trade Jones for Bedard, and stick Luis Gonzalez in LF...we have a spacious OF with two of the worst defensive corner outfielders in the league.

[Ex-hippie]

This is a different era in baseball in which money is the big talker. The sheer reality is that in order to compete NOW, you have to have NOW talent. What happens with a lot of fans is they get so attached to their homegrown talent that they focus more on the "what if they become superstar" unknown rather than the "the person we are getting in return is already a superstar" KNOWN.

No. This is absolutely not true. Again, I am taking issue with your use of the word "proven." Bedard is hardly more proven than Jones or Clement right now. You can put KNOWN in ALL CAPS and YELL IT all you want, but that doesn't make it true. Minor league performance is a highly reliable guide to future major league performance. Are there minor leaguers who do great and then perform poorly in the majors? You bet... and there are also major leaguers who do great one year and then perform poorly the next. Remember, even Jeff Weaver was once an All-Star. "Proven Veterans" are hardly more proven than Jones and Clement. This is well-established by now. To dismiss the youngsters' projections as speculative while chasing after "Proven Veterans" is the mistake that too many bad GMs (such as Bavasi) have made, in the face of all the evidence.

So let's look at recent non-Boston, non-New York World Series winners:

2006 - St. Louis - Pujols on his rookie contract, with a number of acquisitions from other franchises (Carpenter, Edmonds, Rolen) -- although they certainly weren't the best team that year, having won only 83 games. How about Detroit, built around Bonderman, Verlander, Granderson, Inge, Zumaya, etc.?

2005 - ChiSox - Buherle, Garland, Rowand, Crede, Jenks, all homegrown; Konerko acquired as a young prospect, so virtually homegrown. Roster filled out by smart, not splashy, FA signings like Dye, Iguchi, Everett and Contreras, plus F. Garcia, acquired in a trade.

2004 - Boston. N/A

2003 - Florida, we've discussed. Almost all young, almost all homegrown.

2002 - Anaheim. Salmon, G. Anderson, Erstad, Glaus, Washburn, Lackey, Eckstein, Molina, Percival. Homegrown, homegrown, homegrown.

2001 - Should have been the M's, but it was Arizona. Mostly big free agents and trades.

2000 - New York. N/A

1999 - New York. N/A

1998 - New York. N/A

1997 - Florida. Also a bunch of free agent signings and/or trades, such as Bonilla, Alou, K.Brown, Leiter, White, etc. But also a fair amount of homegrown talent, including C.Johnson, Renteria, and Castillo, plus Nen, acquired as a prospect.

1996 - New York. N/A

1995 - Atlanta. Maddux came as an expensive free agent, as did McGriff. But they had Glavine, Smoltz, Avery, Wohlers, J.Lopez, Chipper, Justice and Klesko. All homegrown except Smoltz, who had been acquired as a prospect.

That takes us back to the strike, which for all intents and purposes was the start of the "modern" free agency era. I was already pretty sure you were wrong, but now that I'm looking closer at it, I'm really sure you were wrong. I see two teams, the '01 Diamondbacks and '97 Marlins (and possibly a third, the '06 Cardinals, though that was an undeserving WS winner) built primarily around free agents and other veteran acquisitions. The rest had solid nuclei of homegrown players, many on their rookie contracts, and filled out the rosters with smart signings. Once again: that is how you absolutely have to do it if you're not New York or Boston.

[TheUrbanZealot]

We don't have a shot at going anywhere with Bedard. How many wins do people think one pitcher of his quality is worth? Do people see Bedard alone putting us ahead of the Angels or competing for the Wild Card? Because I don't.

This team over performed last year, and it's foolish to believe they'll be that lucky again.

And if the M's trade Jones for Bedard, and stick Luis Gonzalez in LF...we have a spacious OF with two of the worst defensive corner outfielders in the league.

Says who? we are virtually the same team, minus Guillen. + a better #4/5 (Silva) than last year. With Bedard and Felix, that one 2 punch can compete with virtually anyone. Yes, i DO see Bedard giving us more wins this year. If I had to use common sense and say (Silva + Bedard) - (Jose Guillen + Weaver + Ramirez), I'd say we would have won even more games last year. I look for improvement from Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt (who is shat on too much on this board), Sexson can only go one way, Ichiro will be Ichiro. I think with our improved SP and our decent bullpen, we'd absolutely be able to compete w/ the Angeles.

I'll put it like this, I'd take Bedard w/ this current team vs Jones and Clement without Bedard.

Why are you insisting Gonzalez will sign w/ the Mariners? Or do you mean we will sign a Gonzalez-type player? Ibanez + Ichiro + anyone that can play halfway decent defense will suffice.

Look, we aren't going to be able to compete with the NY's offensively even WITH jones and clement. We might as well limit such offenses with decent starting pitching.

Not since Randy Johnson and Erik Hanson will we have had a power combo like Bedard and Hernandez.

[Sweezo]

And I expect Bedard and Hernandez to lead us to the promised land about as well as Johnson and Hanson did...

This is a team that performed beyond its means last year. It got wins when it really shouldn't have, and there's not one player on offense I see taking a big step forward next year.

The M's can trade all they want to put together a decent starting five, but when you have a power-deficient collection of slap hitters that won't score many runs and a **** defense that won't help it's pitching staff, what's the point?

And I'm saying they'll sign Gonzalez because they've supposedly already contacted him about that possibility, and since other teams have apparently offered Gonzalez a contract to be a platoon player I'm guessing he's waiting on those offers because he wants to see if that starting job in Seattle comes through.

The mistakes this franchise makes, and ultimately won't acknowledge, completely negate the good moves they make.

Paying a bunch for a groundball pitcher is a bad move when you have a defense that, save their thirdbaseman and a rangy yet inconsistent shortstop, doesn't do a particularly good job turning groundballs into outs.

Paying a bunch for flyball pitchers doesn't make much sense when you are stuck playing horrible outfielders like Ibanez (and maybe Gonzalez) who have no range and allow flyballs to turn into doubles.

Trading a bunch of young players for a SP doesn't make any sense when that pitcher is two seasons away from commanding a $20 million a year contract and the team isn't constructed to contend immediately.

Trading for a DH with no power makes no sense when you have a roster full of players who would be better off playing DH because of their defensive deficiencies.

This franchise just cobbles pieces together without any sort of grand plan and has no feel for what the value of its prospects truly is. Trading a bunch of talent for Bedard just same like more of the same decision-making for the purpose of making decisions, something to try and lure casual fans into the ballpark with a name they may recognize .

[The_Child_Prodigy]

What about waiting 2 years and SIGNING Bedard? The Ms have the money to do it with Nintendo.....and we can keep our prospects.

I hear Bedard's agent is a Boras wannabe so he will probably test the market....

[Sweezo]

Sounds great, but Bavasi won't be around when that time comes so he's making a move out of fear of losing his job.

[The_Child_Prodigy]

Sounds great, but Bavasi won't be around when that time comes so he's making a move out of fear of losing his job.

2nd place in the AL West for a couple years with out a farm or 2nd place in the AL West for a couple years with a farm then taking over the division?

I really hope we keep our prospects especially Triunfel.

[Bulltalk]

I must say that a pitching rotation of....

--Bedard
--Hernandez
--Washburn
--Silva
--Batista

....looks pretty damn good. There are some real inning-eaters with these guys.

[The_Child_Prodigy]

I must say that a pitching rotation of....

--Bedard
--Hernandez
--Washburn
--Silva
--Batista

....looks pretty damn good. There are some real inning-eaters with these guys.

Yeah and a farm system of uhh maybe Jeff Clement, Aumont, and Morrow is even better!

[Bulltalk]

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Yeah and a farm system of uhh maybe Jeff Clement, Aumont, and Morrow is even better!

You're right. I'm just not entirely certain that making a move for Bedard is a horrible decision. I think it's close, depending upon how much it costs us from the farm. I'm pretty sure it will cost us 2 top prospects/young talents, and one decent prospect, or something like that.

Once upon a time, when the Mariners were in need of another strong player on a quest for a title, they refused to deal the likes of Ryan Anderson, Joel Pineiro, and others for such a talent.

None of the players other teams wanted in trade talks for such a quality vet panned out.

I can't help but remember this. Oftentimes young talent/talent on the farm looks better in one's mind than it turns out in reality to be

[Basketball Jesus]

Trading for Bedard now seems to hinge on what kind of player you think Adam Jones will turn out to be. Is it worth trading a young cost-controlled potential All-Star for two years of Erik Bedard?

[TheUrbanZealot]

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None of the players other teams wanted in trade talks for such a quality vet panned out.

I can't help but remember this. Oftentimes young talent/talent on the farm looks better in one's mind than it turns out in reality to be

...and this is the point that can't be understated. We always want the next best thing, but out of all of the gazillion farm players that come through, how many actually end up being blue chippers? There are very very few blue-chippers in the major leagues in relation to all of the big prospects that pan out to nothing.

The question is, is it worth the risk? There is absolutely no question Bedard is worth 3 of our top prospects...

[Basketball Jesus]

The question is, is it worth the risk? There is absolutely no question Bedard is worth 3 of our top prospects...

How so? Take the prospects out of the equation for a moment. How exactly will Bedard turn the Mariners into a serious contender? They don

[Sweezo]

Trading for Bedard makes sense if you're willing to address the issues on offense and defense that still hinder this team. What is the point in trading for Bedard if the offense still can't score runs and the defense is worse than last year with the slow old guys getting slower and older and no good solution for replacing Jones' defense in RF?

[Ex-hippie]

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...and this is the point that can't be understated. We always want the next best thing, but out of all of the gazillion farm players that come through, how many actually end up being blue chippers? There are very very few blue-chippers in the major leagues in relation to all of the big prospects that pan out to nothing.

And this is the point where you're absolutely, categorically wrong. I've gone through it before, right in this thread, and need not do so again.

[Bulltalk]

Trading for Bedard now seems to hinge on what kind of player you think Adam Jones will turn out to be. Is it worth trading a young cost-controlled potential All-Star for two years of Erik Bedard?

A rotation of...

--Bedard
--Hernandez
--Washburn
--Silva
--Battista

...with a little bit of luck, is one of the stronger rotations in the league, IMO. Put that together with our already strong bullpen, and we have a chance to compete to win the west for the next two to three years with a little luck.

True, we've got hitting problems. I think we'd have to hold onto Clement and hope that he can be a decent run producer for us. We'd also have to hope that Beltre hits at least as well as last year, and hopefully better. We'd have to hope that Ichiro continues to be a top 5 hitter in the league for a handful of more years.

We have problems, problems, problems. No doubt. I'm just not completely convinced that if we don't get Shylocked in the trade, it may not be that bad of a situation to end up in. It gives me a bit of hope for the coming seasons, and with a pitcher's park like Safeco...who knows. We may get lucky in the next few years.

I don't know.

[Basketball Jesus]

A rotation of...

--Bedard
--Hernandez
--Washburn
--Silva
--Battista

...with a little bit of luck, is one of the stronger rotations in the league, IMO. Put that together with our already strong bullpen, and we have a chance to compete to win the west for the next two to three years with a little luck.

Stronger rotations in the AL? Hardly. The only teams the Mariners would have a definitive rotational advantage over is Baltimore, KC, and Texas. Maybe Oakland. Outside of the (potential) Bedard and erratic Hernandez, this team does not have anything resembling a guaranteed top-end starter. Without Bedard, this is one of the worst rotations in the league. With him, they

[Ex-hippie]

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but why would you be willing to part with multiple players ready to make a major league impact on a team that sorely needs them? This isn

[Bulltalk]

Well for one, as I mentioned before, I wouldn't include BOTH Jones and Clement in a Bedard trade. I'm sure they'd have to have Jones for any kind of a deal to happen, and I'm sure they'd want Clement, but I wouldn't dare move a potential power-bat in Clement in any such package. No deal.

Again, I'm not saying that such a trade isn't risky, that I'm unaware of the costs of such a deal. I'm actually pretty torn both ways about it. What I'm saying is that if such a deal was made, and we didn't give up too much for Bedard, I could find a way to live with it.

BBJ, we simply have a different opinion about the potential of a starting staff of Bedard, Hernandez, Washburn, Silva and Batista. I could be all wrong about this, but such a staff is potentially a lot stronger than I think you're giving it credit for.

Bedard pitching in Safeco Field could be a highly effective and productive near-the-top-of-the-rotation starter. Hernandez could well "break out" this year and be one of the top pitchers in the league. He's certainly got the stuff to do it. Silva has been a major inning muncher, and would make for a very solid 3rd/4th starter. Washburn is kind of hit-or-miss, but is capable of having a decent year with a little luck and run support. Batista is fine as a 5th starter, at least until a youngster comes along to take his place.

I hear the reservations about such a trade, but I wouldn't be up in arms about it, as long as we didn't mortgage too much of our future on it.

I guess it really depends upon who would have to be offered to make it happen. That's the long and short of it.