RealGM

Because the season's over and no one cares about Mariners baseball for 2013. A couple potential important news items in the last couple days:

[1] The death of Hiroshi Yamauchi

How will this affect the team? For now, I say not at all. Nintendo's indicated the have no interested in selling the M's at this point. Maybe they're being coy to extract as much value as possible, but assuming they're correct then it's safe to assume very little in the way of changes at the top of the organization.

[2] Z's coming back

Just got done talking briefly with Mariners president Chuck Armstrong, who confirmed that Jack Zduriencik is being retained as general manager for 2014.

“Yes, Jack will be back,” Armstrong said.

Armstrong declined to go into detail on how long Zduriencik has been retained for, citing club policy. Club sources have indicated Zduriencik will be here on a short-term deal for now.

Zduriencik said in an interview soon after that he’s pleased to be staying on beyond this year.

Zduriencik declined to indicate how long he’s known the Mariners are definitely letting him fulfill his contract beyond this year.

“You always operate on the basis that you’re going to keep doing the job,” Zduriencik said. “That’s what I’ve been doing. It’s been business as usual.”

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/mariners/2013/09/24/chuck-armstrong-confirms-jack-zduriencik-back-in-2014/

Like many, I supported the idea of bringing Jack Z back a few months back. I felt we were seeing just enough progress to think things were looking up in 2013. Since that time? Franklin's scuffled. Smoak's scuffled. Seager's scuffled, bringing his numbers closer to his historical averages and away from numbers that made it appear he'd really broken out. Miller's been OK.

Walker and Paxton have been impressive, but too often we've seen a young player come up and look good out of the gate then come crashing down to Earth when the league begins to adjust.

Everything that resembled progress has turned out to be fool's gold once again. Now, I fear the idea of giving Z one year to take a team that's not competitive and turn them into a winner. That's what buried us when Bavasi was at the helm.

[3] Hultzen's going to visit James Andrews due to shoulder issues.

That's never a good thing. Maybe we'll see him in 2015.

2014 is going to be such huge year for this franchise. if this youth movement doesn't pan out it's tough to imagine a scenario where we're at all competitive the next 3-4 years. we've gone all-in.

i like the makings of a felix/kuma/walker/paxton/erasmo rotation, though. let's pray the young infield continues to grow.

TTown wrote:i like the makings of a felix/kuma/walker/paxton/erasmo rotation, though./quote]

I do too. I think the odds of all five of those guys giving you 200+ innings is exceptionally low, but I'd be fine with some cheaper contingency options in the pen. Keeping a guy like Joe Saunders around for $6.5 million is a poor idea.

The offense should be the focus of the budget.

TTown wrote:let's pray the young infield continues to grow

But who do you focus on? Seager's the only one that isn't a question mark. I was hoping he would take more of a step forward, but I feel you can safely count on him for .265/.330/.430 line.

At SS, do you go with Miller or Franklin?

At 2B, do you go with Franklin or the suddenly resurgent Ackley?

At 1B, do you stick with Smoak, keep Morales, or other?

I don't have any clue what to do in the outfield. Almonte's fun to watch but I'm tired of being burned by small sample sizes. Saunders has been hugely disappointing. We need to move on from giving Ibanez nearly 500 plate appearances. Guti's good for 20 games a season and nothing more.

As much as I wanted to sign Choo and Ellsbury [assuming we have the cash], now? I don't know what I want. Do I want them investing millions in players good now when I don't feel like we are that close to contention?

I fear an offseason where a GM, suddenly becoming desperate, is willing to sign people like Corey Hart and Nate McLouth to unfriendly deals when the premier free agents shun us. Why would a player in his prime want to come here? After so many seasons of mediocrity, and no clear management/coaching staff commitment?

I wonder if there's been any thought of Franklin learning 3B, either to switch with Seager given his superior arm or at least to be able to back up the position. Seager had to play a lot of games in row because we didn't have a backup after Liddi got cut.

TTown wrote:i like the makings of a felix/kuma/walker/paxton/erasmo rotation, though. let's pray the young infield continues to grow.

That's the ONLY THING that excites me about the team. The rotation has the potential to be REALLY good, especially compared to the crap we had to put up with this season in regards to Harang and Saunders.

The offense is a joke. It's basically Morales and thats it. Sometimes Seager. But man, we are going to be in trouble, especially since I can already see Smoak being penciled into that #4 spot. Yuck.

BayAreaMadSkill wrote:But man, we are going to be in trouble, especially since I can already see Smoak being penciled into that #4 spot. Yuck.

First base is going to be a problem. Smoak really seemed to be making progress towards the middle of the season, posting legitimately elite numbers over the summer. In the first half, Smoak hit .272/.372/.431. The home runs and RBI were nothing to write home about but the OBP was there and the power was coming. Then, in the second half he hit .203/.294/.392. He hit more HR and drove in more RBI in the second half, which is confounding. Did he try to change his approach to hit with more power and ruin what made him effective in the first half? Is this just his ceiling?

What do you with him long term? What does the team intend to do with him? Shannon Drayer posted some thoughts after speaking with Jack Z:

"What I don't want to do is do something just to do it," he said. "People say, 'Well you have got free agent money, then go get a free agent.' Well, I agree, but what good is that if it is not a really good free agent or a guy that is going to be with you. We may have to look at some other alternatives like platooning. In our match-ups this year, I would have hoped we had done a little better job going forward with match-ups, and a lot of that has to do with health, and that hurt us. There were so many times this year we were so left-handed oriented, just throw a left-hander against us and we were in trouble. And we knew that. It's hard to rectify that in the middle of the season."

If Justin Smoak is only going to produce from the left side, could we see a counterpart brought in to face lefties? Maybe Michael Saunders, if he is still here, only faces righties. Maybe we see a platoon at second base. These are all options. These were not possibilities with the current roster. This doesn't work if you have four or five first base/limited outfield/DH types on the team. Zduriencik is aware of this and, to that end, it will be interesting to see if there is room for Raul Ibanez on this team. Thoughts on that at a later date.

Smoak hit .260/.361/.477 against RHP, which isn't bad. But boy, am I not thrilled at the idea of a compartmentalized team with platoons at 1B/OF/2B. Maybe I would be if we had Joe Maddon running this team since he has used that strategy like a genius, but without knowing who will manage this team and without having complete confidence in Jack Z to tread such a fine line I'm skeptical.

So who would be available in free agency at 1B? Either as a starter or as a platoon partner for Smoak? Here's Cot's potential FA 1B for 2014.

Lance Berkman *
Jason Giambi
Travis Hafner
Todd Helton
Eric Hinske
Paul Konerko
Casey Kotchman
Adam Lind *
James Loney
Kendrys Morales
Justin Morneau
Mike Morse
Mike Napoli
Lyle Overbay
Carlos Pena
Mark Reynolds
Juan Rivera
Kevin Youkilis

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2014/

Horrible. Assume Helton/Giambi/Berkman are good bets to retire. Based on prior history it's unlikely Jack Z brings back Mike Morse or Kotchman. Mark Reynolds is a hack master who bottomed out this past season. Carlos Pena's not much better. Justin Morneau figures to be expensive and also struggles against LHP. Hafner/Lind are good platoon partners if you need someone to hit RHP, which we don't. And if someone does, you figure they'd sign one of those two instead of trading for a guy like Smoak.

Mike Napoli killed RHP to the tune of .284/.376/.523. The M's were known to have interest in him last year. Napoli's interesting as he probably wants more than a one year deal after playing the season without missing games due to his hip condition. But he won't come cheap, and you pay him to play full time, not platoon.

James Loney's had a good year offensively against RHP and LHP but he won't hit many home runs. The Rays had him on a $2 million/year deal. He's due for a raise, but you could you still pay him a relatively low amount?

if you want a FA platoon partner for dirt cheap, Juan Rivera is a career .285/.332/.488 hitter against LHP and he spent last season in the minors. Pair that line with Smoak's line from this season and that's some pretty good production. But he's also 35 years old and might very well have his best days behind him.

edit: wrong board!

This Hot Stove League seems more like a pile of extinguished coals and embers, but I guess we'll work with what we have. Which is a bunch of "M's have interest" tweets:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/400752747915403264[/tweet]

As with many players the M's will be linked to in free agency, I don't have a problem with adding Dexter Fowler. He won't hit a ton but his OBP numbers are strong, he has a little power, he has a little speed, and seems competent on defense. But what do you trade for him? Nick Franklin?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/400664865859440640[/tweet]

Now this is interesting. A healthy Matt Kemp is a superstar. Unfortunately no one's seen a healthy Matt Kemp in two years. I've seen many people argue that Ellsbury's less injury prone than Kemp, but I really don't know. The nature of Kemp's injuries [shoulder, ankle] certainly seem like they could be in the 'nagging' category versus something like a broken bone which, once healed, shouldn't be an issue. Kemp's had two injury riddled season back to back but he put up around 660 plate appearances in the four seasons previous. A move to the AL where he can DH from time to time might not be a bad career move.

Again, what's the price? How much talent does it cost if you are absorbing the balance of a $160 million contract? L.A. does not need Kemp. They have a good outfield with or without him, and as much as they can absorb a hefty contract, why bother if someone else will take it off your hands? Trade Kemp, get some talent back, and go spend a fortune on Tanaka.

But what could we possible offer? We have some depth at 2B which L.A. doesn't need. Pitching? L.A. could always use/afford another impact starter. We have precisely two of those players: Felix and Iwakuma. Neither would be worth moving for Kemp. Paxton and Walker might intrigue them but we've got three holes in our rotation, too.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/400366373261811712[/tweet]

I don't understand and think it's a terrible fit for both sides. If there is such a thing as a clutch player in the playoffs, it's Beltran. So why invest money and years into a 36 year old player who has more value to a contender? Unless you pay him so much money that he chooses the M's over a contender?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/400365691150561280[/tweet]

Garbage. Cruz is an aging slugger with no defensive capability. And he's coming off a lengthy suspension for P.E.D. stuff. It's fine to kick the tires, but don't commit to buying this jalopy. This seems like Cruz's last shot at a long term deal...and I don't want to see the M's pay him what he thinks he is worth.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jcrasnick/status/400320843835666432[/tweet]

This is the one that terrifies me. We've made zero moves so far, but what if we came out of free agency with an aging Beltran, a one-dimensional Kendrys Morales [who just turned a 1 year/$14 million deal...and not because he wants less money], and Peralta I don't think we've improved any if at all.

Shannon Drayer makes an interesting point about adding Peralta as a stop-gap infielder, waiting until D.J. Peterson is ready for 3B with Seager moving to 2B. If that's the case, and this frees up trading Franklin and Ackley...by all means if the money/years are right. Maybe Ackley--for all his faults--gets you Dexter Fowler. Maybe Franklin can be part of a package for the supposedly available Matt Wieters [who, with two years of team control remaining, might bridge the gap until Zunino's fully ready].

Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports that the Mariners have “no interest” in Jacoby Ellsbury. Feinsand is also hearing, however, that the Cubs are “stealthily waiting in the wings” as the market develops for the free-agent outfielder. Feinsand notes that the market for Ellsbury looks thin. Ellsbury’s agent, Scott Boras, is reportedly looking for a deal similar to Carl Crawford‘s seven-year, $142 million contract, and that could be enough to scare some teams away. While Ellsbury is a dynamic player, he is a 30-year-old with an injury history who relies heavily on his speed. A Crawford-like contract would absolutely require a team to roll the dice.

http://nesn.com/2013/11/report-mariners-have-no-interest-in-jacoby-ellsbury-but-cubs-stealthily-waiting-in-the-wings/

Interesting. And I don't buy it for a second. For the past two seasons, the M's have been the fashionable team to leak as the favorite to sign a high-priced free agent, only to find themselves spurned in the end. Fielder, Hamilton...I'm not saying they should have signed those players, but they found themselves used as a bargaining chip.

If they are interested in Ellsbury, I'd assume one way to prevent yourself from being used as a pawn is to proactively leak your lack of interest. I can't see what any other party would have to gain by leaking that. Boras wants to create an image of a bidding frenzy, so he's not tossing suitors. Competing teams wouldn't seem to gain much as the M's would know it's garbage.

Another reason I'd assume interest is the other big names they've been tied to [Kemp, Fowler] are also arguably center fielders. I wouldn't put Kemp in CF but I could see a team trying it out.

If you look at some of the rumors, as thin as they are, could you picture the following offense? God knows what the cost would be in terms of trade capitol used [I left Franklin/Ackley off the list...along with all pitchers], but does this seem feasible? Tolerable? Godawful? Three trades and two signings?

OF: Fowler/Kemp/Saunders
3B: Peralta [holding serve for Peterson]
SS: Miller
2B: Seager
1B: Smoak
C: Wieters
DH: Corey Hart

Bench: Almonte/Zunino/Montero/Triunfel

Maybe the most important development in the offseason, Chuck Armstrong is retiring January 31.

the first domino has fallen...

if you consider willie bloomquist a domino.

he actually hit NL pitching quite well. only played in 48 games last year.

meh?

Who cares about Bloomquist. Garbage.

How about news that the Mariners are a MAJOR PLAYER for Robinson Cano? AMAZING talent, but on the wrong side of 30. How long would the offer be?

Hmmm...

BayAreaMadSkill wrote:Who cares about Bloomquist. Garbage.

Yeah, **** that noise. If they'd signed any one of the similarly talented available players for the same deal, wouldn't have cared. But WFB? Not a fan. The guy drove me nuts when he was here the first time, largely because our crack managerial staff thought he needed 250 at bats a season. As a utility infielder, he's harmless. But they kept throwing him out into the outfield and 1B. And...DH? He had 12 PA as a DH with Seattle? One of Hargroves' bigger transgressions IMO.

BayAreaMadSkill wrote:How about news that the Mariners are a MAJOR PLAYER for Robinson Cano? AMAZING talent, but on the wrong side of 30. How long would the offer be?

With Beltran sitting on a 3 year/$48 million offer from a team that may or may not be the Royals, the market's certainly taking shape. A lot of pieces have moved, and not many of the traded players or signed FA have been rumored to be on the M's radar. Which is dangerous...focus on some players with later developing markets, miss out on the bargains available early.

Cano would be a good name and an upgrade, but what do you do with Franklin and Ackley? Both are 2B and don't seem like a good fit elsewhere on the diamond.

Morosi also just tweeted the following:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/408011613531152384[/tweet]

Depending on the costs...I'm not against a Cano/Kemp haul. That's a lot of money [and different injury history] but it's a product I'd be interested in.

As for Kemp, I don't see an immediate fit with the Dodgers in terms of a trade. But there's rumors the Reds want to trade Brandon Phillips and plan to do so within the week. Phillips would fill in at 2B nicely IF Guerrero can handle SS and IF Hanley slides back to 3rd base. That may leave a hole at 2B for Cincinatti. Franklin's not a fair trade for Phillips, but if the M's absorb all of Kemp's salary and the LAD absorb Phillips' salary, that might be something to work with.

Boy does this offseason seem earlier familiar. Ellsbury's off the market. So are most of the prime free agent catchers [Ruiz, Saltalamacchia, Pierzynski]. Fowler's been traded [for not a whole lot, I might add]. Fister's been traded. Morneau, Beltran, and possibly Choo seem close to landing with the Rockies, Royals, and Tigers respectively.

As active as the M's have been portrayed by the media, they've also been portrayed as desperate by the same. So, what horrible choice are they about to make? Paying too much for Nelson Cruz? Giving up too much in trade for Kemp?

M's linked to big free agents, other free agents sign, M's strike out on big free agents, M's make poorly conceived trades. Brutal.

God; Last thing I want to happen is another Sexson-Beltre disaster that ruins us for another half-decade.

Cano/Kemp? I would be okay with that. I'll bank on Kemp's health, because he is legitimately a Top 5 player in this league.

I'm only okay with Cano if it is a front-loaded deal.

With our history with FA's over the past 10 years, I'm not very confident.

BayAreaMadSkill wrote:God; Last thing I want to happen is another Sexson-Beltre disaster that ruins us for another half-decade.

Cano/Kemp? I would be okay with that. I'll bank on Kemp's health, because he is legitimately a Top 5 player in this league.

I'm only okay with Cano if it is a front-loaded deal.

With our history with FA's over the past 10 years, I'm not very confident.

I don't know how many Twitter users we have on here, but Dave Cameron and Jason Churchill both indicated they've received tweets from higher-ups elsewhere indicating the M's are about to make a panic move the likes of which can get GMs fired. Soooo...that's good...

That about sums up my thoughts, Sweezo.


EDIT: What's a panic move to us? I'm assuming giving Nelson Cruz 200 million?

Ugh...I hate Harmony Korine movies...

BayAreaMadSkill wrote:EDIT: What's a panic move to us? I'm assuming giving Nelson Cruz 200 million?

I don't know...this?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/408409152835182592[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/408409232505974784[/tweet]

Sure, give up Walker for two years of team control for David Price. I'd rather trade Walker to the Rays for their entire front office since they fleece others who lack patience.

I acknowledge the concern that young arms are volatile commodities, but I just don't think you give up on Walker. He's given you no reason to do that. You can trot Ackley/Smoak/etc. out there for at bat after at bat, watch them fail, and convince yourself they're cornerstones of the franchise all you want. And then you move the players like Walker? KEEP the young players who succeed and anoint them the cornerstones! Don't keep the young players who fail consistently and anoint them the cornerstones!

I completely understand moving a player like Paxton given his inconsistency and his age relative to Walker.

Just about the only good thing to happen to this franchise in the last decade is Felix Hernandez. At age 21, Felix was a young ace in the making. He threw just under 200 innings for the M's, putting up a 3.11 K/BB ratio and a 3.92 ERA. It was arguably his worst season as a Mariner if you look at counting stats, but a .333 BABIP was easily the highest of his career. A defense that featured Yuni Betancourt, Jose Lopez, Raul Ibanez, Jose Guillen, and Richie Sexson may have contributed greatly to those numbers.

Those numbers aren't dissimilar from the lines Taijuan Walker posted across AA/AAA/MLB last year.

What if Bavasi had grown impatient and traded Felix for a known quantity stud pitcher? In '07, that meant Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Fausto Carmona, Dan Haren, Erik Bedard, Carlos Zambrano, Brad Penny, Brandon Webb, Jeff Francis, CC Sabathia...to name a few.

No King Felix. No perfect game. No King's Court.

There's certain pieces you have to hold on to. Tai Walker's one of them.

I'd rather the Mariners FLOP! in trying to make the team better than do mostly nothing at all. After all, I barely give a shyt about the team as it is now, so pathetic they've been.

Is anybody as cynical as I am that we're going to come away with nothing to be excited about this winter? Either in trade or FAcy?

Bring a president in who'll get something done. Something to be excited about. PLEASE!

As far as I'm concerned, our only keepers/untouchables are:

--Felix
--Iwakuma
--Walker
--Zunino

i'd do it w/ an extension. but i doubt that would happen.

i guess i'm pretty dang comfortable with a felix/kuma/walker/paxton/whatever rotation. if we're talking the 2014 season in a bubble........... with price in his prime, walker still learning the ropes......... i'm still not sure what we really gain by swapping the two. it's not like the mariners + price = world series. there's still a million holes in this organization.

i would much rather focus all our resources on hitting, and maybe throw a bunch of money on a one year rental like, say, bartolo colon. that'd give us another stout arm without giving up walker. even if we have to overpay, it's still just a year, and we don't lose anyone.

walker for price just isn't a move a franchise like seattle needs to do. we're not in win-now mode.