RealGM

hippie wrote:Jones - I'd trade him for Willis, but wouldn't add much to the deal. Everyone seems to think he's ready to start now. Best-case comp would be Torii Hunter, worst-case would be Mike Cameron. He's a righty hitter, which we don't particularly need, which is why I'd trade him.

I'm not sold on Jones being as good as the projections make him out to be. He strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, and his speed hasn't translated at all on the basepaths. (I think one scout called him "lost" out there.) Right now his two plusses are his power and his improving defense. I think the best-case scenario in terms of peak production for him would be Vernon Wells' 2006 season and his worst-case...Vernon Wells 2002. His value is going to be tied into whether he'll hit enough to overcome his lack of plate discipline.

Balentien - holy cow, has anyone noticed how he's doing? His OPS is around 1.000, he has 20 homers at midseason (one less than Jones) and is clearly improving his approach at the plate with 39 walks, an acceptable rate. This guy needs to get up to the majors and be our starting RF. BUT, since he's a righty-hitting outfielder like Jones, I'd move him for Willis (again, not willing to add much to the deal).

Of all the team's top prospects, Balentien would be the one I'd move without hesitation. He reminds me a lot of a guy we have here in Boston: Wily Mo Pena. Ridiculous IsoP but he's easily overmatched at the plate to the point where he may never realize his big-league potential. He has done a better job of taking a walk and has cut down on the strikes this season but I have a feeling that a lot of it is luck (his BABIP is nearly 100 points higher than last season's total and unlikely to stay that high at an advanced level as AAA) and park factors (Tacoma has been a pretty offensive-happy stadium this season). I do believe the power is real; I just don't think he has the secondary skills to translate it to the next level.

Clement - I just don't know what to think about him. Everyone says his bat is slow, but he's been hot over the last month. If he can catch, he's still a useful prospect. No matter what, he's very tradeable at this stage.

If I were running the Mariners (and, god willing, I will someday) Jeff Clement would be the second-most untouchable player in the organization outside of Felix. Legitimate catchers with that kind of power and patience are hard to find. Yeah, some of his numbers may be inflated (cf. Balentien) but he already an above-average hitter for the position. I'm not too worried about the bat speed as his elbow injury probably played a major part in that and he's in line with the season he had in 2005. With Johjima on the wrong side of 30 and the need for a power lefty bat, I'd hold on to him as long as possible. I have a feeling he'll end up having a Jason Varitek-type career.

Butler/Tillman - Love 'em both for their potential, but they're far away from the majors.

I like Butler more because of his size and leftiness. But, at this point, I wouldn't be too sad to see either one go in the right deal. I don't know if Willis is the kind of pitcher I'd want though.

Triunfel - they can have him when they pry him from our cold, dead fingers.

Agreed. When you're being compared to Miggy Tejada by numerous scouts at age 16 chances are you're a legit prospect. For a 17-year-old in A ball...ridiculous.

Feierabend - it would be reasonable to trade him; he's got a decent future and can be the replacement LHP for the Marlins' rotation right away.

I'm with you here; the Mariners have more than enough prospects with higher ceilings to replace him and he's close enough to the bigs to make a palatable option for the Marlins.

Think Florida would bite on a deal that doesn't involve Jones, Balentien or Triunfel? How about Feierabend, Clement and Tillman for Willis? One guy who's in the majors, one who's close, and one with big upside... a little of everything.

I really don't like Willis; he doesn't strike out enough guys, walks quite a few, and plays to contact more than people let on. I'm usually not one to subscribe to the "good-pitcher-in-NL-is-mediocre-pitcher-in-AL" theory but a player like Willis is the exception: you can't get away with that kind of game in the AL. DHs would eat him alive.

I'd offer something like Balentien/Feierabend/low-level-prospect-with-upside (Maximo Mendez?) and see where that'd take us. Anything more would be a serious overpay for someone that would provide possible league-average ball over the stretch.

Basketball Jesus wrote:If I were running the Mariners (and, god willing, I will someday) Jeff Clement would be the second-most untouchable player in the organization outside of Felix. Legitimate catchers with that kind of power and patience are hard to find. Yeah, some of his numbers may be inflated (cf. Balentien) but he already an above-average hitter for the position. I'm not too worried about the bat speed as his elbow injury probably played a major part in that and he's in line with the season he had in 2005. With Johjima on the wrong side of 30 and the need for a power lefty bat, I'd hold on to him as long as possible. I have a feeling he'll end up having a Jason Varitek-type career.

Only problem is his numbers are supposedly inflated from mashing crap fastball pitchers. Some scouts have been bitching about his bad speed being less than spectacular. He's a guy I sell high on in a heartbeat.

Basketball Jesus wrote:Is it even worth it? I like Willis and all but he's not a particularly great pitcher.

This is true; Willis is falling off lately. However, if he went to the Mariners we wouldn't expect a lot out of him because he'd have to REALLY do work to start over Felix and he'd probably have a legit competition with Washburn for the No. 2 spot.

If the top of the Mariners' rotation was Hernandez/Willis/Washburn I would go moist in a positive way. That's two pitchers with ace potential and another pitcher who's just now come around with No. 2 potential. Make Batista the fourth pitcher and have about five different guys fight for the fifth spot and it's still a helluva rotation in the division with the LA Angels and Oakland.

And I'm with Sweezo in that I would use Clement as a bargaining chip to get Willis. They can have Ryan Rowland-Smith and Sean Green too.

I think you guys are going to be wrong about Clement. Even if he can't hit for average, he has the power and patience to be a great offensive catcher. Like Mickey Tettleton.

Basketball Jesus wrote:I think you guys are going to be wrong about Clement. Even if he can't hit for average, he has the power and patience to be a great offensive catcher. Like Mickey Tettleton.

Then again, you're assuming he even stays at catcher. That appears to be up in the air at the moment.

There is no way in hell I would involve Balentien, Clement, or Jones in a trade for Willis. He's just dropped off so much that I would not want to give up on those players so easily for a pitcher if I cant depend on him to pitch well consistently.

I've honestly never been a fan of Willis; Even when he was winning 20 games, I chalked it up to a fluke year.

PhilipNelsonFan wrote:and have about five different guys fight for the fifth spot

Man, where's the love for Jeff Weaver?

Bay_Areas_Finest wrote:There is no way in hell I would involve Balentien, Clement, or Jones in a trade for Willis. He's just dropped off so much that I would not want to give up on those players so easily for a pitcher if I cant depend on him to pitch well consistently.

I've honestly never been a fan of Willis; Even when he was winning 20 games, I chalked it up to a fluke year.

That's why you buy low and sell high, buddy. We'd be buying into Willis (and his star power, of which he has some) for a relatively low price (a few prospects; at least one top prospect and a couple middling ones) compared to what his price has been. And this is the Marlins, so they don't mind selling kinda low, but they definitely require their prospects.

As of right now, the D-train would be the third starter in this Mariners rotation with plenty of opportunity to move up. I'm fine with the M's rotation being a meritocracy.

Bay_Areas_Finest wrote:Man, where's the love for Jeff Weaver?

If he wants to continue not sucking, I'm fine with that decision.

There's no way you give up Adam Jones for Willis. Keep in mind he's still only 21 years old. He's made huge strides from just last year and is still improving. He's a legit multiple time All-Star level talent.

Willis has been declining for a few seasons and is pitching in the NL in a pitchers park. His numbers would only get worse coming to the AL.

The word is that Jones is going to be called up on Thursday and will start in right field.

Bay_Areas_Finest wrote:There is no way in hell I would involve Balentien, Clement, or Jones in a trade for Willis. He's just dropped off so much that I would not want to give up on those players so easily for a pitcher if I cant depend on him to pitch well consistently.

I've honestly never been a fan of Willis; Even when he was winning 20 games, I chalked it up to a fluke year.

I was all set to to argue full on for Willis, but then I ventured over to The Hardball Times and did some research.

Alright, Seattle fans (alright...non-Seattle fans too). Let's say you're the GM. You're poised to make a playoff run, and you're willing to make a trade to fill that last hole in your rotation. You're a smart GM, and you're not suckered in by reputations or hollow stats like ERA and wins.

There's only three players on the market you can consider. They'll cost you exactly the same price on the trade market. Which pitcher would you rather have?

Player A: 5.20 RA, 4.98 FIP, 50.5 GB%, 6.0 K/G, 3.7 BB/G
Player B: 7.36 RA, 4.88 FIP, 46.5 GB%, 2.8 K/G, 3.6 BB/G
Player C: 6.16 RA, 3.75 FIP, 50.5 GB%, 6.2 K/G, 1.8 BB/G

So, you can see who allows the most runs per nine innings, who pitches the best regardless of what their fielders do behing them, how often they get groundballs, and how many strikeouts and walks they'll give you in nine innings.

Who do you pick? Doesn't seem too tricky...

...but let's ignore Player C for a while. Player A is Willis, and Player B is the guy Willis would likely replace: Horacio Ramirez. Ramirez is getting clobbered when it comes to runs allowed, but their FIP is pretty much the same. Historically, Willis and Ramirez have both hovered around 50 GB%, and this year isn't much different...Ramirez could do a little better than he is.

One big difference between Willis and Ramirez is that you can count on Willis to stay healthy for a whole year. And he'll get you roughly 3 more K's per nine innings than Ramirez. But they'll both walk close to 4 players per nine innings.

So, do you make a big trade for 3 more strikeouts per game and a better injury history?

If Willis does leave at the end of the year, he'd lead to high compensatory picks that the team could use to restock the minor leagues...

But still. Is it worth the cost?

Is it worth the cost when Player C, also known as Cha Seung Baek, is kicking the butts of Ramirez and Willis this season. Baek has been getting blatantly screwed by his defense behind him (and then again Ramirez has too to some extent...perhaps this M's defense would let down Willis just as much?).

Wouldn't this team's pitching woes be best ameliorated by putting the best defenders possible behind the pitcher you already have? [insert argument for Jones over Ibanez in left field here]

Personally, I think the team needs to stand pat. If Beuhrle were available, different story...but he's not. Put Jones in left, Ibanez at DH, and Baek at 5th. I think that's your best shot...it puts a cheap, quality starter out there who pitches better than his numbers indicate, it gives your defense a huge boost in leftfield, and gets Vidro on the bench where a switch hitter with a decent OBP and some hitting ability with no power would have some use. And it doesn't put a strain on your team's future.

catch22 wrote:The word is that Jones is going to be called up on Thursday and will start in right field.

Where'd you hear that? What does that mean about Guillen? Ignoring Guillen's splits, the guy have produced RBI this year.

Foolish to put Guillen in left and Jones in right. Left field in SafeCo requires more range (i.e. Jones).

EDIT: ...ahhh, I see where you saw that at. Guillen in left, Jones in right, Ibanez at DH, and Vidro on the bench. Makes a great amount of sense to me.

The Clement-Tettleton comparison is interesting, in part because it shows how much a player's value hinges on whether he can play catcher. In 1992, Tettleton was the Tigers' regular catcher and had a VORP of 40.5 (tops in the AL at the position). In 1993, he mostly DH'd, put up extremely similar numbers to 1992, and had his VORP decline to 31.7, still solid but not exactly all-star worthy. So the big question is, will Clement be like Tettleton the catcher, or Tettleton the DH? If the former, he could be our top prospect. If the latter, he's merely a solid prospect.

Either way, I hope he doesn't wait as long as Tettleton did to hit his stride. Tettleton left his original employer, Oakland, before he ever did anything.

Sweezo wrote:EDIT: ...ahhh, I see where you saw that at. Guillen in left, Jones in right, Ibanez at DH, and Vidro on the bench. Makes a great amount of sense to me.

Where did you guys see this at?

I'd love it if it were true.

Very nice post regarding Ramirez and Baek, Sweezo. Props.

However, having posted that...we still need a fifth starter. Willis is a moderate-risk, high-reward option. Since his groundball percentage is the same as Baek's, I'd probably grow to appreciate him more.

So, yeah, standing pat isn't gonna hurt the Mariners one bit in this case, especially now that we've locked Ichiro up...but it's worth exploring because we all know that Willis, for all his recent shortcomings, has ace potential. And a change of scenery from Florida is usually a good thing for players (Josh Beckett).

There's some interesting chatter on a Marlins message board about D-Train to Seattle. They seem to be fairly reasonable -- hoping for a lot in return, but also kind of acknowledging that they might need to be more realistic.

I noticed a couple posters asking for ATLEAST Clement and Morrow.

No f'n way.

Gauging those responses, Jones, Balentien, Reed, and a low-level prospect will do the trick.

How about Mike Morse?