The J.J. Putz rumor thread (edit: Putz a Met)

[Ex-hippie]

Maybe I should have started this a few days ago, but... let's discuss.

Is Prince Fielder a pipe dream?

Would Matt Joyce be good enough, or can we snag Jeff Larish and/or Marcus Thames as well?

Are the Mets still looking for a reliever after landing K-Rod (who, with his declining strikeout rate, is now just "Rod")?

Rick Ankiel, anyone?

[BlackMamba]

well... i like fielder, would he be the 1B or the DH? although i don't know what to make of his numbers in 2007 and the ones in 2008.

ankiel... hhhhmmmm... i don't know...

who would be the closer?

[Basketball Jesus]

I don’t think you’re going to get much value trading Putz at this moment. For one, the market is flooded with closer-types, most of which are as good as or better than Putz. Second, he’s coming off a down year and an injury.

Given what’s being talked about in the trade papers, the Tigers offer seems embarrassingly pitiful for a player of Putz’s stature.

That said, I would wet my pants in pure ecstasy if the M’s could land Fielder in a deal for Putz. But, given that the rumor came from Steve Phillips, that has about as much of a chance of happening as I do nailing Heidi Klum.

[Ex-hippie]

I don’t think you’re going to get much value trading Putz at this moment. For one, the market is flooded with closer-types, most of which are as good as or better than Putz. Second, he’s coming off a down year and an injury.

Good thing most people who are there seem to disagree (many of whom aren't Steve Phillips). As noted, Fielder is probably a pipe dream. But Matt Joyce is a decent enough catch -- someone, I forget who, said he can expect a Jayson Werth- type career, and he's locked up through 2014. If Larish comes along, he can add what that same commentator said could be an Eric Hinske- type career. And if Larish comes along *and* can play third base, I'd say we've gotten a nice haul. Maybe we differ on what's meant by "much trading value" -- certainly it's not what it would have been a year ago, but there are still plenty of teams that have interest and seem to prefer Putz over the remaining free agents (Wood) or other closers on the trade market (Jenks). And if there's anything to the Ankiel rumors, then I'd get ready to wave bye-bye to J.J.

[Ex-hippie]

And now there's a chance BBJ is correct after all -- with the M's getting a pile of crap for Putz, also known as the Franklin Gutierrez/Aaron Heilmann combo. If that happens, so help me, I'm done supporting this team. Seriously.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Lookout Landing reporting it as done, but they haven't posted a link. Has the general board broken it?

The initial rumor I saw was:

J.J., Sean Green and Jeremy Reed (THANK GOD) for Franklin Gutierrez, Aaron Heilman (LOL), Endy Chavez, Mike Carp and some low-regard Indians prospects.

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Read this. They know more than I.

[krustytheclown]

mets fan here...does brandon morrow become the closer now? and good luck with heilman hopefully he isnt as bad for you as he was for us...

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Can't wait to see some actual analysis, because this trade is f**king confusing.

mets fan here...does brandon morrow become the closer now? and good luck with heilman hopefully he isnt as bad for you as he was for us...

That's presumably all up to Wakamatsu, but the idea is probably to keep Brandon as a starter, where he's put in a ton of work. The term "closer" is pretty irrelevant as far as the Mariners are concerned, since they have to get to the ninth in the first place.

[Basketball Jesus]

Here’s the finalized version of the deal (per Rotoworld):

Mets acquired RHP J.J. Putz, OF Jeremy Reed and RHP Sean Green; Mariners acquired OF Franklin Gutierrez, RHP Aaron Heilman, 1B Mike Carp, OF Endy Chavez, LHP Jason Vargas, OF Ezequiel Carrera and RHP Maikel Cleto; Indians acquired RHP Joe Smith and 2B Luis Valbuena

First and foremost: if this is the best you can get for Putz PLUS a top prospect at this time, you pass. You wait until the rest of the closer-types on the market sign and use that leverage for a better deal. Or, better, you move Putz at the trade deadline of 2009, when his value would presumably be maxed. I don’t care how big Dave Cameron’s hard-on is for Gutierrez’s defense, he’s a horrible, horrible hitter, most likely well below average with the bat. This team definitely needed an upgrade defensively and presumably some permutation of the Chavez/Ichiro/Gutz combination is one of the top outfield defenses in the league. It’s also easily the worst offensive outfield in the league. With the team’s trouble last season being the inability to produce at key offensive positions, this does nothing to alleviate that problem.

Gutz’s upside is Jay Payton with slightly better defense and ostensibly worse offense. On good teams, Gutz is a 4th OF, a defensive specialist off the bench, one that won’t fully embarrass you as far as bench bats go. The Mariners aren’t a good team, which means Gutz is a starting OF which further means his bat almost completely negates his defense in terms of value.

Endy Chavez: glorified 25th man. Great defense, not the kind of guy I’d want to give more than 75 emergency AB to in a season.

Personally, I think the two biggest pieces to this deal are Aaron Heilman and Carp. Carp came on huge last season, hitting .299/.404/.471 as a 22 year old in AA and, unlike Bryan Lahair or Chuckie Peguero, he’s a legitimate 1B prospect. Of course, there are a lot of caveats: he’s somewhat streaky with the bat, his defense is of the god-bless-him-he’s-trying type, and he doesn’t have the true power you’d want from a true 1B prospect. He reminds me a tiny bit of Daric Barton in that regard.

We all know what Heilman can potentially bring: a capable bullpen arm, potential starter, maddeningly inconsistent, somewhat bitchy.

Jason Vargas: reclamation project? He’s always been talented; he’s just never been able to translate it to on the mound. Still, he’s 25.

Ezequiel Carrera and Maikel Cleto both look to be of the immensely raw variety though scouts rave about Cleto’s offerings. Both are too young and too far away to accurately project but, if I had to hitch a cart up to either horse, it’d be Cleto. With his fastball, he looks like he could be an effective middle reliever.

So, this is all you get for a proven closer, a decent 4th OF type (Reed), a mediocre reliever AND one of your top middle infield prospects (and probably the only one that will stick there). You get…bench bats, a potential back-end starter, a crap pitcher, a prospect that might end up decent, and two far away prospects that will probably never pan out.

[Ex-hippie]

I've been talked off the ledge by Lookout Landing, at least to some extent. Loved their comment on Gutierrez's glove:

Gutierrez is the gem of the trade return, and here's why - he's one of the best defensive outfielders on the planet. PMR likes him. UZR loves him. Plus/minus had sex with him on Adam Everett's coffee table.

I guess I need to get with the times. I'm still stuck in the Moneyball era, when Billy Beane was praised for doing things like putting Jeremy Giambi at shortstop. Okay, he didn't do that, but basically he blew off defense and people called him a genius for it. Now the baseball cognoscenti are emphasizing defense, and I guess I'd better get on that train. If Gutierrez can hit like he did in 2007, he can be a starter on a good team -- wait a second, he was a starter on a good team that year, so there you go. Otherwise, I'm going to need to see the proof.

Interesting aspect: the three most notable players in the trade (Putz, Gutierrez, Heilman) can all be described with the sentences "if only he can perform like he did in 2007 instead of 2008...." So maybe there's fairness in this trade.

As for Heilman, it's curious that Heilman would demand a trade so he can become a starter, then get traded to a team with a handful of decent-to-good starters (Felix, Bedard, Morrow, RRS) and a surplus of iffy starters (Washburn, Batista, Silva); Heilman would be in the latter group and probably be 8th in line for the rotation, maybe lower if any of the AAA guys show anything in the spring. Simply put, Heilman should not be a starter. He pitched like a reliever in 2007 and was a good one, blowing the ball past people. In 2008 he introduced that crappy slider, ostensibly to give him more of a pitchers' repertoire, and got shelled. He needs to return to doing what he does well; and if he does, he can be a big part of the closer committee.

The wildcard in this trade is Mike Carp. I know little to nothing about him, but what I've read seems favorable. I would think Dennis Raben is the first baseman of the future, but maybe Raben can be an outfielder or a DH.

Jeremy Reed for Endy Chavez: wha'eva.

Finally, Luis Valbuena: he has a little upside and could eventually be a decent player, but I think he's eminiently replaceable. Say, with Callix Crabbe.

EDIT: I forgot to mention Sean Green. Another very replaceable guy who seems to be following the career path of ex-Mariners like Julio Mateo and Jose Paniagua: middle relievers who came up through the system and were useful for a while, then weren't. Green was crappy in 2008, especially the last two months, and he's about to turn 30. No big deal there.

But Green's departure does remind me that with Putz gone, Green gone, and Morrow in the rotation, the M's have virtually no right-handed relief pitching (aside from the equally shaky Mark Lowe and I guess Roy Corcoroan) -- so Heilman damn well better accept a relief role and do it well. I'd try to rehabilitate Miguel Batista there, too; he's relieved at various times in his career and even closed for Toronto as recently as 2005.

[Zyme]

Batista relieved and closed last year as well. He had a save last year.

I'm waiting for the bedard trade. I think we will see him on the move by he begging season and it will be after all the other major starters are off the market. Its the only position we are deep in and would help to get good prospect (after teh adam jones debacle).

[BlackMamba]

can i say: what a bad trade? i don't know the prospects, but franklin, chavez and heilman? they don't add a thing this team needs...

[NateMustGo]

[quote="BlackMamba"]can i say: what a bad trade? i don't know the prospects, but franklin, chavez and heilman? they don't add a thing this team needs...[/quote- I think you're wrong here Mamba this gives us outfield D a aspect of the game we have been missing forquite a while. A top notch cf that we havent had since Cameron, gives us a 1B prospect, a 20 year-old up and coming pitcher a majorleague pitcher thats ready right now I think this is a very good trade.

[Basketball Jesus]

A few days later and I still think the Mariners lose out on this deal and I still think Gutierrez (and, by extension, the miraculous healing effects of defense) is terribly overrated, but it’s not as doom-and-gloom as I first thought. I like Heilman, Carp’s OK, Gutz is a much better at playing Jeremy Reed than Reed himself is, Vargas is a Horacio Ramirez gamble without the Soriano ante, I like Cleto a lot, and, while Chavez is a bit redundant with Gutierrez aboard, he is a good late-inning defensive option.

I guess the problem I ultimately have with this deal is that aside from (maybe) Carp, none of these players are a long-term solution to the real problem this team faces: a lack of tangible offense from players under the age of 28. Yes, the defense was lacking and, yes, a rotation that prominently features Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn isn’t exactly an asset but those things can be solved somewhat realistically internally: RR-S is almost ready for primetime and is a feasible replacement for Washburn after (during?) the season. Silva as a #5 isn’t a bad prop, provided you have good infield defense behind him. Putz probably could have landed better fits if they waited a bit longer.

Though, and here is the interesting thing about moving Putz now as opposed to later: it frees up more cash to allow them to pursue a big-ticket item. They’ve been rumored to be involved with both Teix and Dunn which, shades of Sexson aside for the latter and ungodly price for the former, isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Finally, I like Ja-Z’s aggressiveness and his prescience to realize the team’s strengths (bullpen) and weaknesses (defense) and act accordingly. As a Celtics fan, I’ve understood the need to be patient with the minor deals as the big picture begins to form and, in that regard, Ja-Z has my trust until proven otherwise.

[Ex-hippie]

Though, and here is the interesting thing about moving Putz now as opposed to later: it frees up more cash to allow them to pursue a big-ticket item. They’ve been rumored to be involved with both Teix and Dunn which, shades of Sexson aside for the latter and ungodly price for the former, isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Really? Wow, that would be cool. Especially Teix but also Dunn. Dunn, some may recall, was part of my rebuilding plan -- however, that was based on the hope that he could be a relative bargain, having been unfairly maligned in Cincy for the strikeouts. My proposed contract for him was for a moderate term of 3 years, at a value that was less -- in absolute, non-inflation-adjusted terms -- than Sexson's contract from 4 years ago. Now that an inferior commodity (Ibanez) has set the bar at 3 years, $30 million, you have to figure Dunn is looking for a lot more than that. I'd draw the line there. But I'd be more than willing to roll the dice and figure he'll pan out better than Sexson. (And hey, if it's only 3 years, recall that Sexson was good for 2 years with the M's; worst case, Dunn has a Sexson-like dropoff and only the last year has to be written off.)

And Teix? Name a price. But -- here's where we're switching roles, BBJ -- why on earth would Teixiera want to sign with Seattle, short of an offer that absolutely blows away all other offers (which we know will be considerable)?

[Basketball Jesus]

I don't think Teix would unless the money was right but I do think it's another point in the favor of Ja-Z being aggressive in solving this team's problems.

I really do think there's a big picture here with the Putz deal. I don't think it's the kind of deal he would have made in vacuo without some hidden agenda. If that agenda is a dark horse candidate for Teix, hot damn does this team look a lot better in the short and long term.

[krustytheclown]

as a mets fan if you expect heilman to be any good boy are you guys in for one rude awakening...and carp has reached his peak hell never be anything more than a backup 1b