Offseason, Part II - into 2009

[Ex-hippie]

As we head into the new year, let us reflect and look forward. 2008 was a dark time, but along came a new leader to take us into 2008. His background was unusual, his experience perhaps light; but he had the right ideas for the right time, and came to inspire us. Soon we embraced the ideas of "change we can believe in," accepted the new agenda, and repeated the mantra of "yes we can!" And we've convinced ourselves that 2009 would bring a better day with a new, vastly more competent regime. Sure, he will inherit much of his predecessor's mess, including recently acquired "troubled assets"; but we now believe there is a plan to lead us back to prosperity.

Okay, enough gushing praise for Jack Zduriencik. Happily, some of those "troubled assets" are off the books now. Sexson, Vidro, Ibanez and Putz are no longer on the payroll. Off the top of my had that's about a $35m reduction in liabilities from last year. Added to the payroll are Gutierrez ('09 salary unknown, but let's say a mil), Heilman ($1.2m), Chavez ($2m), Branyan ($1.4m) and Shelton (something like 700k). That's a little over $6 million total. From returning players, there are a couple of pay hikes in the offing, but nothing huge -- Bedard stands to make another couple million in arbitration, Johjima got that ridiculous exension for another $3m over his '08 salary, Lopez and Yuni each get another mil or so, that's about it.

So, by my conservative estimate, if we're going to have the same bpayroll in 2009 as in 2008, we have something like $20 million to play with. That doesn't mean we have to throw it all at the next guy who walks through the door. (This seems like common sense, but Bill Bavasi didn't understand that.) There's still a chance we can be a player for some of the remaining free agents, like, say, Milton Bradley.

So let's see where we are --

Pitching spots (11) - Felix, Bedard, Morrow, Washburn, Silva, RRS, Batista, Heilman and Lowe take up 9 roster spots. There's room for two more. I'd like a lefty reliever, and although neither Justin Thomas nor Cesar Jimenez profiles as anything other than a long guy, let's say one of them makes the team. The last spot can go to Cocoran or maybe Sean White, Jared Wells or Jon Huber. Back to the minors for the rest of them, plus Feierabend, Gaby Hernandez, and Josh Fields if we sign him (perhaps only for a short time). Aumont, Ramirez and, oh, let's just say Alex White (looking like the #2 pick in the '09 draft) are on the horizon.

Positional starters (9) - it looks like Johjima, Branyan, Lopez, Yuni, Beltre, Wlad, Gutierrez, Ichiro, Clement (DH).

Positional backups (5) - I'd say Rob Johnson, Shelton, Hulett, either Crabbe or Corona (I prefer Crabbe, and sell Corona back), Chavez.

So, where do we go?

After much thought, I've really gotten into the idea of Prince Fielder. He's on the block, J.J. Putz was never going to be enough to get it done, but I think it's time to dangle Morrow, and perhaps Rob Johnson, who can replace Kendall long-term, and whatever other little pieces are needed to get it done. Put in Fielder at 1B, let Branyan DH, move Clement back to C, let Johjima be the super-expensive, untradeable backup catcher he should be. (There was a recent piece, either on USS Mariner or Lookout Landing, showing that the practical difference between a Pudge-level defensive catcher and a Piazza-level defensive catcher is, like, two wins. And Johjima is no Pudge in any case.) If they can do that and sign someone like Bradley, I'll be really optimistic that we can contend in what looks like a very mediocre division (lotsa teams that seem to be headed for something like 81 wins).

My other priority would be to acquire a shortstop, but I don't have any good ideas aside from Reid Brignac, and I don't know if he's obtainable right now. Maybe -- with all the praise that's been heaped on Jason Bartlett, Brignac can be moved, but I don't know what they want in return; especially now that they've added Matt Joyce, they're not gonna want Wlad from us. I had been thinking of Mike Aviles from KC, but he seems to have finally convinced management that he's a better option than Tony Pena Jr., so he's probably not going anywhere.

So, let the discussion begin.

[Basketball Jesus]

A few weeks back Dave over at USSM posted how, with a mere +3 win free agent (e.g. a Milton Bradley type) this could be a potential division challenger, especially with the current state of the A’s and the Angels. I don’t necessarily buy the argument as the Angels still have a boatload of cash to spend with FA looming but I buy the idea that the Mariners don’t need to rock the boat to field a potential winner this upcoming season.

With that said, a deal for Fielder is out at this time: the M’s don’t have what the Brewers need (near-ready frontline MLB starter) and, even if they were to come with a decent proposal, there are other teams with better prospects (e.g. Red Sox) that have already expressed interest. I’m fine with passing on Prince if it means the M’s can save some chips for when they really need them.

[Ex-hippie]

Yay, yet another thread of "let's acquire Player X," followed by BBJ replying "can't do it, Red Sox also want him and have more to offer"!

Should we just give up, or what?

My understanding is that Z was very much in the running for Fielder if Morrow could be made available, but he balked at it.

[Basketball Jesus]

Ah, yet another “let’s acquire marquee player X” without giving much pause to the economical aspects of such a move.

I don’t buy Morrow being the centerpiece of any Fielder deal unless there was a substantial package of prospects along for the ride. Fielder is one of the best young power hitters in the game with a free agent market devoid of just that, even more so now with Teixeira off the market. Morrow + an organization soldier like Johnson + whatever odds n’ sods isn’t going to land Fielder. Not unless Bill Bavasi somehow joined the Brewers when I wasn’t looking. Any deal for Fielder is going to have to start with a legitimate frontline cost-controlled starting pitcher PLUS top prospects. Sadly, Morrow has the cost-controlled part down, not so sure about the frontline starter part other than in name only. Now, for poops and laughter, let’s assume the Mariners do pitch a decent offer for Fielder. Something like Morrow/Triunfel (or Halman or Saunders), and Juan Ramirez. An MLB pitcher and two top prospects. In vacuo, not a bad deal. Now, say the Sox – who have expressed considerable interest in Fielder – make an offer because, well, Fielder is suddenly available. They could offer a deal like Buchholz, Lars Anderson (who would be extraneous if Fielder came over) and Michael Bowden. If you’re a GM, who do you take? Sure, you could say that the Morrow’s MLB experience might trump Buchholz’s higher ceiling but Anderson and Bowden are far better prospects than Triunfel and Ramirez. And it doesn’t stop there: hell, the Sox could feasibly throw in Jon Lester or even Kevin Youkilis (who would probably become expendable if Fielder comes over by virtue of Mike Lowell’s enormous contract. The point is, trades don’t happen in a vacuum. There’s always going to be other teams interested. The Mariners aren’t at the point where they can deal from depth: a lot of their good prospects are in A-ball or lower and the higher-level ones are either gigantic question marks (Halman, Moore, Wlad, Clement) or more valuable to this team (Saunders, who helps them full their impending OF void).

If the Mariners were to move on Fielder it would have been well before the start of the free agency period; now they’re most likely going to have to contend with teams like the Sox and Angels if Fielder suddenly becomes available. The Sox have much more organizational depth to effect a better deal for Fielder while the Angels have more young MLB talent to move. I don’t buy Z’s ties to the Brewers as a way of getting Fielder at a discount rate; that’d just be a bad business practice on the part of the Brewers not to get the most value out of Fielder in a trade.

Now, if you were to go after someone like, say, Corey Hart (or even JJ Hardy or Alcides Escobar), there’s a good chance you could land one without paying the market premium for either…or at least at the same markup as someone like Fielder. Any of those three players would fill an immediate need – Hart provides offense, Escobar defense at short, and Hardy provides both. Also, the Brewers would be dealing from depth; they could lose any one of those three and replace them more easily than they could Fielder.

[Ex-hippie]

Ah, yet another “let’s acquire marquee player X” without giving much pause to the economical aspects of such a move.

That's way off base. If there's one thing I've made clear here and in other threads, it's that I pay a lot of attention to economic aspects of all transactions. It was at the forefront of the discussion that I started here.

I don’t buy Morrow being the centerpiece of any Fielder deal unless there was a substantial package of prospects along for the ride. Fielder is one of the best young power hitters in the game with a free agent market devoid of just that, even more so now with Teixeira off the market. Morrow + an organization soldier like Johnson + whatever odds n’ sods isn’t going to land Fielder.

We get it. You think Morrow won't be a good starting pitcher and isn't worth much. You've made that point clear. Not many people agree with you, and he's currently highly regarded, at least if media reports are to be believed. He's not as highly regarded as Clay Buchholtz, but we'll get to that. (Also, the current view is that Johnson is a potential starting catcher, which makes him far more than an "organization soldier"; he's a notch behind Adam Moore in the organizational rankings, and perhaps Moore instead of Johnson would be needed to make it work.)

Not unless Bill Bavasi somehow joined the Brewers when I wasn’t looking. Any deal for Fielder is going to have to start with a legitimate frontline cost-controlled starting pitcher PLUS top prospects. Sadly, Morrow has the cost-controlled part down, not so sure about the frontline starter part other than in name only. Now, for poops and laughter, let’s assume the Mariners do pitch a decent offer for Fielder. Something like Morrow/Triunfel (or Halman or Saunders), and Juan Ramirez. An MLB pitcher and two top prospects. In vacuo, not a bad deal.

Actually it would be the Bedard trade redux. This is not at all what I proposed, so let's just let this particular strawman ("hey, let's trade the farm including every decent chip we can possibly find all at once!") die the unceremonious death it deserves. (Well, actually, now I'm the one who's being a little bit unfair. You're not actually proposing this; what you're really saying is "let's line up all of the very best prospects in the whole organization, compare them side-by-side with the very best prospects in the Boston organization and see which is better." So let's get to that part next.)

Now, say the Sox – who have expressed considerable interest in Fielder – make an offer because, well, Fielder is suddenly available. They could offer a deal like Buchholz, Lars Anderson (who would be extraneous if Fielder came over) and Michael Bowden. If you’re a GM, who do you take? Sure, you could say that the Morrow’s MLB experience might trump Buchholz’s higher ceiling but Anderson and Bowden are far better prospects than Triunfel and Ramirez. And it doesn’t stop there: hell, the Sox could feasibly throw in Jon Lester or even Kevin Youkilis (who would probably become expendable if Fielder comes over by virtue of Mike Lowell’s enormous contract. The point is, trades don’t happen in a vacuum.

What can I say? If the Red Sox offer this kind of package, I wouldn't be interested in topping it. You can say this about any trade. I can say "gee, it would be nice if the M's went out and tried to make a play to get Alfredo Amezaga from the Marlins," you can always come back with "but you can't get him if the Red Sox are willing to trade Buchholtz and Lester and Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden and let's just say Dustin Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon." Okay, we get it. The Red Sox have a lot to trade. (You can go through this with a number of organizations: "hey, the Dodgers could dangle Clayton Kershaw, Ivan DeJesus, James McDonald and James Loney, etc. etc.")

I'm talking about making a value-for-value trade where all teams come up with reasonable proposals in exchange, and I assume the Red Sox would be thinking of the same thing. You vastly overpay with your prospects if your GM is Bill Bavasi; you don't do it if you're a well-run organization, and Boston has a well-run organization. Having a lot of pieces doesn't mean it makes sense to them to top all other possible offers in every scenario.

It's hard to find any agreement here because we seem to be starting from completely different premises. Your premises are that Morrow is a B-list prospect, and that nobody really wants anything the M's have to offer. The first view, which I acknowledge you've backed up, still isn't the majority view among professional observers. The second, I submit, needs some updating.

[Ex-hippie]

...However, I think the idea of going after the more attainable J.J. Hardy might also have legs. I hadn't realized his defense was that good. (Fangraphs put his defense at +11.6 in 2008 and +15.6 in 2007. His overall performance in '08 was worth almost 6 more wins than Yuni.) He's rumored to be available as well. And the M's have a big, gaping hole in the category of 2007 All Stars Named J.J.

[Basketball Jesus]

We get it. You think Morrow won't be a good starting pitcher and isn't worth much. You've made that point clear. Not many people agree with you, and he's currently highly regarded, at least if media reports are to be believed

That’s not exactly true. Up until last season there were a great many question marks regarding Morrow’s profile. Aside from John Sickels, who was pretty gaga over him from the outset, most thought Morrow a reach at five, a player whose control issues would preclude him from becoming a front-end starter. Most had him pegged as a potential closer type with his repertoire. Those questions still abound. But that’s beside the point; the point is the Brewers have made it explicit they want a legitimate front-end starter. Morrow is not a legitimate front-end starter; not yet at least.

Also, the current view is that Johnson is a potential starting catcher, which makes him far more than an "organization soldier".

By who? He hasn’t been viewed as such in years. Most scouting reports I’ve seen say he’s nothing more than a defensive back-up whose bat may or may not play at the major league level. Sickels left him off his Top 20 entirely and neither BA nor BP speak as highly of him now as they did a few years back. He’s a stalled prospect whose defense carried him as far as it could. I don’t buy his newfound offense either: it was third go-round at AAA and pretty much everybody hit like beer-league softballers in Tacoma last season.

What can I say? If the Red Sox offer this kind of package, I wouldn't be interested in topping it. You can say this about any trade. I can say "gee, it would be nice if the M's went out and tried to make a play to get Alfredo Amezaga from the Marlins," you can always come back with "but you can't get him if the Red Sox are willing to trade Buchholtz and Lester and Lars Anderson and Michael Bowden and let's just say Dustin Pedroia and Jonathan Papelbon." Okay, we get it. The Red Sox have a lot to trade. (You can go through this with a number of organizations: "hey, the Dodgers could dangle Clayton Kershaw, Ivan DeJesus, James McDonald and James Loney, etc. etc.")

Now that’s strawmanning. Of course you could say that about any potential trade. In doing so, you’d be no less a rumormonger than Buster Olney (probably more accurate though). The difference here being that the Sox have already expressed a great deal of interest in Fielder (via a few credible sources) and that Buchholz has been unofficially placed on the trading block (via reports of the TEX-BOS Buchholz-for-catcher rumors). It’s no large leap of faith to believe that they’d readily trade him in a package for Fielder. Anderson’s not as credible a trade piece, although he’d be a bit redundant with Fielder and Ortiz (and Youk) around.

The entire point of my stance was that there are known teams that covet Fielder to the extent that they could make a package that would easily trump what the M’s would offer. These are the kinds of players it doesn’t make sense to trade for (at least at this point); just like it doesn’t make much sense for them to overpay a coveted free agent, no matter how good he is, it just doesn’t make sense for them to overspend in trade either. There’s very little benefit for them to do so right now. How much tangible difference would it make to add Fielder at the expense of prospect depth and Brandon Morrow? I’d reckon not much over the life of the deal. A few wins this season and next, while the team still has gaping holes to fill elsewhere? He leverages a 76 win team into an 80 win team while making barren the farm? That’s my point with respect to Fielder.

I'm talking about making a value-for-value trade where all teams come up with reasonable proposals in exchange, and I assume the Red Sox would be thinking of the same thing. You vastly overpay with your prospects if your GM is Bill Bavasi; you don't do it if you're a well-run organization, and Boston has a well-run organization. Having a lot of pieces doesn't mean it makes sense to them to top all other possible offers in every scenario.

At a point, a good GM will leverage future potential for current production, not unlike Theo’s trade with Florida for Josh Beckett. The key to that is one must be confident not only in having depth at hand to replace the outgoing players but also a pipeline for future prospects. The Sox had the amateur draft, where they would consistently draft tough signees in the later round and pay them overslot not to go to college. Zduriencik inherited a farm system that, for a lack of a better term, sucked at creating a constant flow of prospects. It was either feast or famine. Theo can make the kind of deal where his top three prospects head to Milwaukee because he knows that, right behind them are ones potentially as good as the ones they’re replacing. The Mariners don’t have that luxury now.

It's hard to find any agreement here because we seem to be starting from completely different premises. Your premises are that Morrow is a B-list prospect, and that nobody really wants anything the M's have to offer. The first view, which I acknowledge you've backed up, still isn't the majority view among professional observers. The second, I submit, needs some updating.

I think you’re right in that this team, if it wants to add a premier player, needs to do so in trade. I just disagree with that player being Prince Fielder. Fielder would just cost way too damn much to go after. It’s like contrasting the value of signing Mark Teixeira over Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell. Sure, Teixeira is that much better than Dunn or Burrell but, from where the Mariners stand right now, Burrell or Dunn at cheaper prices is a more sound investment for the resources currently at the Mariners’ expense.

[Basketball Jesus]

However, I think the idea of going after the more attainable J.J. Hardy might also have legs. I hadn't realized his defense was that good. (Fangraphs put his defense at +11.6 in 2008 and +15.6 in 2007. His overall performance in '08 was worth almost 6 more wins than Yuni.) He's rumored to be available as well. And the M's have a big, gaping hole in the category of 2007 All Stars Named J.J.

Ah ha! I now have you intrigued. The beauty of going after Hardy (or even Alcides Escobar) is that they’re not as likely to cost as many top prospects as Fielder. You could probably get away with trading Morrow and someone like Mario Martinez for Hardy. The Brewers have a glut of middle infielders and both Hardy and Escobar are much, much better than Yuni defensively. (Offensively too, most likely)

[Ex-hippie]

So, what do you think the asking price for Hardy would be? (I'd prefer Hardy over Escobar because this team's going to be pretty light-hitting as it is.) Hardy, presumably, is being made available because he is or soon will be arbitration-eligible, so that would figure into the asking price (as it would with Fielder, as I neglected to mention). Hardy isn't worth Morrow. He's worth more than our next-best cheap major-league pitcher, Ryan Rowland-Smith. RRS plus what for Hardy? Or, if we want to be ambitious, Hardy plus what for Morrow? I think their system is pretty deep, even after trading Matt LaPorta for the Sabathia rental. Cole Gillespie and Mat Gamel both seem like decent prospects (their organization's rough equivalent of Saunders and Halman, say, or maybe a little better than that). I could see this building up into a multi-player deal pretty quickly, just because the pieces don't seem to fit exactly. (EDIT: Gamel seems to have climbed the organizational charts in a big way, so he might not be obtainable. But anyway.)

[Basketball Jesus]

It’s difficult trying to gauge Hardy’s value mostly because I don’t even think the Brewers themselves know how they feel about him. Prior to last season, he was seen as something of an injury-plagued disappointment; his defense wasn’t exactly spectacular and, even though he clubbed 26 HRs, his bat was considered streaky and not good enough to support an eventual move to third. Then he went out and kicked all kinds of bum units in 2008, offensively and defensively, and now there’s talk of possibly shifting Escobar (or Hardy) to second and moving Weeks to center. That would give the Brewers possibly the best defensive middle infield in all of baseball as well as a well-above-average bat at 2nd (or short…wherever Hardy plays). There’s still a chance they move Hardy to third and go with a Hardy-Escobar-Weeks left side of the infield. That’s probably the most logical choice barring a trade.

Which gets us back to the original point: while I think it’d take considerably less to get Hardy than Fielder, I also think the Brewers are more likely to stand pat with Hardy unless they get something they really need (a defensive 3B with an adequate bat, a starting pitcher, a CF to replace Cameron). I think any possible deal for Hardy would have to start with Morrow; I disagree about Hardy not being worth Morrow: he’s a young, capable defensive SS with a great bat for the position. That’s a very valuable player and the kind that takes comparable talent to get. Out of my ass, I’d say it’d probably take Morrow plus someone like Tuiasosopo to get the Brewers to even consider the idea of moving Hardy. I guess it all depends on what you think of Morrow; personally I’d do the deal, but then again I think Morrow’s eventually bullpen-bound. I don’t think I’d go much higher than that, though: I still am not 100% certain Hardy’s going to be able to maintain his current spike in production and the chance for a Michael Young-like sudden decline is very real.

Another interesting option from the Brewers is Corey Hart. The Brewers have a glut of corner outfield-types and with Gamel most likely not having the glove to stick at third (along with the aforementioned potential to move Hardy there), Hart might have more value in trade and would be much more expendable than Hardy. It’d probably take RR-S and a good prospect or two to land him. Landing him would give the team at least one offensively-inclined OF and you could pencil him in left over Balentien (who is doing his part living up to my Wily Mo Pena comp). Hart-Gutz-Ichiro is very good defensively (Hart can play CF in a pinch, so he’d probably be a very, very good LF), and Hart’s bat automatically adds power and speed to the lineup. Adding Hart at the potential expense of RR-S then allows the team to pursue trading WMP Jr. in order to recoup the pitching loss of RR-S.

[Ex-hippie]

Not sure I follow the logic there. I agree with you that Hart has more value than Hardy (in fact his overall value has to be in the stratosphere; he's cheap, he's young and ascending, and he's all kinds of awesome). Why, then, would it take Morrow-plus to acquire Hardy but only take RRS-plus to get Hart? Or do you think that RRS actually has higher trade value than Morrow?

EDIT: damn, what the hell happened to Hart?? I guess I stopped paying attention to him after seeing him in the all-star game? What's with the 659 OPS after the break? So *that's* why you think he can be had for RRS.

I think the word is that Gamel is ticketed for AAA for another year (whether or not he winds up as a third baseman in the long term). If they're penciling in an Escobar-Hardy left side of the infield, they're going to be a bit light offensively. If only we had a third baseman with a great glove and a solid bat who had one year left on his contract, who could help Milwaukee contend for a year while awaiting Gamel's arrival. Hmmm. Now, of course, Milwaukee is looking to shed salary, not take more of it on... but it's just one year, and if we can do them a favor by eating part of the cost (or, say, taking Bill Hall or Mike Cameron off their hands), then who knows. Of course, things are complicated if the aforesaid third baseman has a no-trade list that he seems to be able to revise at will, just in time to veto any trade.

[Basketball Jesus]

Not sure I follow the logic there. I agree with you that Hart has more value than Hardy (in fact his overall value has to be in the stratosphere; he's cheap, he's young and ascending, and he's all kinds of awesome). Why, then, would it take Morrow-plus to acquire Hardy but only take RRS-plus to get Hart? Or do you think that RRS actually has higher trade value than Morrow?

Actually I think the opposite. I think Hardy has a great deal of value because of his position and bat for that position. I think Hart is the more expendable of the two, considering the current depth of the Brewers. They could always slide Hardy over to third, where they have a need. When they matriculate guys like Gamel (and possible Brett Lawrie and Lorenzo Cain), it suddenly makes the corner outfield rather full. Hart’s somewhat limited as a player and probably has the most trade value of the group.

EDIT: damn, what the hell happened to Hart?? I guess I stopped paying attention to him after seeing him in the all-star game? What's with the 659 OPS after the break? So *that's* why you think he can be had for RRS.

I’m not the world’s biggest fan of Hart – he’s frustrating to watch when he’s slumping and trying to make contact with everything (like post-ASB) – but he does have good power (career .208 IsoP), decent defense, and speed. I don’t think he’ll ever be as good as he was in 2007 but he is still a very useful regular. RR-S doesn’t strike me as a particularly great pitcher (his FIP, K/BB, and K/9 aren’t exactly jaw-dropping), so it would probably take a pretty good prospect on the back end to effect that deal. I could see the Brewers moving Hart more readily than others, though.

think the word is that Gamel is ticketed for AAA for another year (whether or not he winds up as a third baseman in the long term). If they're penciling in an Escobar-Hardy left side of the infield, they're going to be a bit light offensively.

Quick aside, but that’s another reason why I don’t see them moving Fielder unless they get an incredibly awesome return.

. If only we had a third baseman with a great glove and a solid bat who had one year left on his contract, who could help Milwaukee contend for a year while awaiting Gamel's arrival. Hmmm. Now, of course, Milwaukee is looking to shed salary, not take more of it on... but it's just one year, and if we can do them a favor by eating part of the cost (or, say, taking Bill Hall or Mike Cameron off their hands), then who knows. Of course, things are complicated if the aforesaid third baseman has a no-trade list that he seems to be able to revise at will, just in time to veto any trade.

I’d be all for moving Beltre if it’d mean getting at least Hardy back in return. I doubt that happens but it would be an intriguing deal.

[Ex-hippie]

The latest is that the team is looking to cut its payroll by about 20% from the 2008 level. That means there's little or no room for further signings unless significant payroll is shed.

Interestingly, Dave at USSM makes a mistake in analyzing this bit of information -- he claims that the deferred part of Ichiro's salary has a present value less than its future value of $5m, so it can be considered a smaller obligation. Not so. If there's market interest, and there is, the present value is the full $5m. Not that the difference would have been big enough to sign a major free agent.

On a related note (the subject at hand was the Tyler Walker signing), the team now has a glut of relievers, especially right-handers. I wonder if maybe they can flip Aaron Heilman and give him that chance to start that he's looking for. (Although his maximum value is as a reliever, so we can expect to get the most value from a team that plans to use him as such. Still, in any case, he seems tradeable.)

[Basketball Jesus]

It's funny how Dave glosses over his error when brought to his attention in the comments section. He can be such a high-nosed prig sometimes. Well, most times.

I think what we see right now might be what we're getting to start the season. Which is fine; if they're looking to keep payroll down and not spit the bit trying to make this a winner this offseason, I'm fine with it. Wait until you can excise Washburn from the payroll, reassess their minor talent and plan accordingly. The market's doing funny things and the M's don't have the resources to gamble on it.

I could see Heilman being flipped but I'm kind of interested in seeing if he can actually turn into a quality starter. The cost is low enough.

[Ex-hippie]

It's funny how Dave glosses over his error when brought to his attention in the comments section. He can be such a high-nosed prig sometimes. Well, most times.

Oh, I see that. That's funny. Okay, so maybe the cost of capital is more than 5.5%, and maybe if you plug in the real cost of capital the present value is something like $4.9 million instead of $5 million. It's definitely not discounted by enough to make a difference for budget purposes. Happy now, Dave? Just admit the minor brain fart and move on.

Actually, having worked with the financing of a few professional sports teams in my time, I know the leagues require huge equity cushions. The last thing the leagues want is random creditors taking over franchises. I would not be at all surprised if the team's cost of capital is 5.5% or less.

[Ex-hippie]

A little off-topic, but here's a fun article by Joe Posnanski: http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/01 ... -the-dunn/

It's a well-worn subject in recent years (Mr. Scrappy vs. Mr. Patient, with Willie Bloomquist apparently filling in as David Eckstein's understudy. But I like the writing, and I'm amused by the list of Bloomquist's nicknames that I had been unaware of. "Effin"? "Spork"?

Also, the article made me realize that Bloomquist, Miguel Olivo, Horacio Ramirez and Jose Guillen are going to be teammates. Eek.