Can the Mavs win it all? Only in their dreams

[HMFFL]

Remember October? Sage basketball analysts and armchair experts alike had the season mapped out. The Western Conference was so easy to predict that it was almost embarrassing to put it in print.

The Spurs, Mavericks and Suns were the Big Three. No one else was close. The mysteries were elementary.

1. Could the Spurs repeat?

2. Could the Dallas Mavericks, who had won 127 games the previous two years, finally convert regular-season brilliance into a championship?

3. Could the Suns, who had beaten the Mavericks and Spurs in different years, finally do it in the same season and make it to the NBA Finals?

And look what happened.

The Suns geared down their bullet-train offense and sent high flyer Shawn Marion to Miami for The Diesel (aka Shaquille O'Neal). They finished sixth in the West.

The fidgety Mavericks blew up their present and future team, trading four players and two future No. 1 picks to the Nets for Jason Kidd, now 35, and told the world that was the best way to beat the favorites and win a championship this season. They finished seventh in the West -- their worst playoff seeding this century.

The Spurs did what they always seem to do. They were excellent in stretches, but not very good in others. They played their special brand of quiet basketball. They yawned at criticism. When the season ended, they were one victory from being tied with the Lakers for the best record in the Western Conference.

But that was a problem because it means a first-round matchup with the Suns -- one that, if they are honest, neither team wants.

So the Big Three is guaranteed to be two after the first round, and maybe even one. And in terms of dominance, the Big Three is a relic of the past.

No one saw that coming in October.

Even those closest to the action had limited vision, however. Kobe Bryant was so irritated by the mediocrity that seemed certain that he demanded a trade. The Lakers said no. Two and a half months later, they were 25-11.

Then the Lakers lost Andrew Bynum, their brilliant young center, to a knee injury. They replaced him when they made a one-sided trade with Memphis for Pau Gasol, and ultimately captured the No. 1 seed in the West for the first time since Kobe and Shaq had each other's cellphone number.

No one saw that coming in October, and if you don't believe me, ask Kobe.

The unpredictability of the season, however, made it one of the most distinctive in NBA history. Imagine reading in October that:

The Hornets will play in an arena that is half-full for much of the first half of the season. But then they will start winning regularly, capture the imagination of the public and will become the foundation for civic pride. Sellouts will become common and the Hornets will have the second-best record in the mighty Western Conference.

The Rockets will win 12 consecutive games, then lose Yao Ming for the season with a foot injury. They'll go on, however, to win 10 more games, making their winning streak 22 games, which will be the second-longest in NBA history. They'll have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

One year after defeating the Mavericks in the biggest first-round upset in NBA playoff history, the Warriors will not make the postseason.

If the 2007-08 season taught us anything, it is that predictions are useless because surprises have been the norm. Perhaps the craziness of the season is reason for Mavericks fans to be optimistic entering the playoffs. Who in their right mind would predict this?

The Mavericks will educate the young Hornets on the harsh realities of playoff basketball and win their first-round series in six games.

Dallas and San Antonio will then engage in another classic series, and it will be a replay of 2006 with the Mavericks winning Game 7 on the Spurs' home court.

The Lakers will be waiting in the Finals, but Dirk Nowitzki will average 30 points and Jason Kidd will average a triple-double as the Mavericks defeat Kobe Bryant & Co. in six games.

In their second NBA Finals, the Mavericks will play the most inspired basketball of their lives and will have a surprisingly easy time with the Celtics, shocking Boston in five games.

When the Mavericks traded for Kidd, that scenario was their dream. If they are able to beat the Hornets, Spurs, Lakers and Celtics and win a championship, then I will forever toast their brilliance.

And I will be consulting them for predictions next season.

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[your_dallas_mavericks]

I wish I felt stronger about the Mavs than I did before game 1. Maybe game 2 can change my mind. If not, then Avery is as bad as the FireAvery.com people make him out to be.