catalyst wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
Let me go economics.
Back then, the fans were fired up for this young team on the rise. MAvs stuff was flying off the shelf. Season tickets are at an all time high. Fans were everywhere. Now, it is hard to say such things. People have bought the new kidd jersey, but they are not buying stuff like they were. They are not excited in the crowd as much, drinking more in the arena due to depression, but not feeling good about where the team is going and feel god about spending their money to see a good product. That is my point about the best time for cuban to sell was after the 2006 season. I was basing it on economics as well. Now his product is not exciting, his team is not young or enthusiastic, and the future is over after this season with a much higher cap figure and lux tax this season than he has ever had. Finley is off the cap as is bradley. The cap declines, but so does the product, which would get a higher price than a boring, old, ill defined future. Perot sold low and still made a $125 mm. Cuban could get close to $500mm, a great number and a gross profit of $225. However, he could have gotten more when the mavs were a rising team coming off of a finals.
I'm pretty sure I understand your points. But I still don't agree with the conclusion.
Overall league growth (much more than any individual team's success and excitement) has caused the value of NBA franchises to increase (see NY Knicks as a prime example of a crappy team becoming a more valuable franchise ). And I do still believe that the Mavs are worth more right now than they were two years ago.
Now, that doesn't necessarily mean it would be the best financial move to make - because assuming that owning the Mavs is profitable, it may make more sense for someone aiming to gain financially to hang on to the team for that reason. But, even that angle contradicts your conclusion that there is not enough excitement to realize a financial profit. Therefore, it would not warrant hanging on. If the profit flow is going to take such a hit, that would be a compelling reason to get out now (not a year from now).
All I'm saying is that if Cuban were motivated solely by financial considerations (which I don't think he is, by the way), and he did choose to sell the team, most experts would NOT likely consider it a financial loss for him. It would indeed be selling high from a financial standpoint. The same applies to the lowly Knicks - as bad as they are, selling now would be selling high (from a pure economic perspective).