Jg41 wrote:Klay is without a doubt the best fit, but highly unlikely. If he’s leaving GS he’s going to play in LA or NY, but the 190+ million he’s gonna be offered by GS will likely be too good to pass up. Leonard and KD are even more enticing, but just as unlikely to move back to Texas. Like many of you, I’m leery of going all in on a “gettable” PG or C (i.e. Kemba / Vucevic / Cousins … Kyrie excluded under the “gettable” parameters) because I firmly believe that this team’s ceiling likely calls for Luka and KP to man the 1 and 5 and ultimately develop into top 3 players over the next decade at those respective positions. Until that potential proves unrealizable, the team should operate with that strategy for at least the next two summers. With that out of the way, a wing player seems to be the most prudent investment—for now.
Assuming (soundly) that the aforementioned top 3 wings will be off the board, Dallas should go hard after Middleton—far and away the next best option on the wing. Milwaukee will have a number of FA’s to address, and Middleton’s relatively advanced age (27) will factor into their likely decision to prioritize locking up their younger options first. Two non-basketball considerations: Dallas’ ability to extend Khris an offer just shy of the max works in our favor, because while he’s certainly not a max caliber player, a 30m starting salary should ward off virtually every other suitor and still result in the Mavs not overpaying (as significantly…~30M vs. ~32.7M) or resorting to unhealthy cap-creating mechanisms like stretching Lee or Powell. The second and far more significant non-basketball consideration is having him join the recruiting team of Luka, KP, Kostas, Dirk, and the MBT in luring Giannis to Dallas in 2021. Basketball-wise, Middleton is, by all accounts, a consummate professional, and an all around good player. His ability to effectively guard the wing, rebound, assist, and shoot the 3 make him a poor man’s Klay Thompson, and an excellent off-ball backcourt partner for Luka. His length (6-8) and positional versatility would be a welcome addition to the starting lineup.
An idea I’ve got less conviction for (for reasons I’ll explain) is pulling the trigger on a deal with Miami to give them some immediate salary relief. The Mavs could offer Brunson, THJ, and Powell (PO), and a future 2nd or two (and/or resending the 2023 2nd they owe us) for Dragic (PO) and Anderson. Both are on expiring contracts and would provide needed 3-point shooting while filling serviceable roles off the bench this season. Along with forfeiting even more future draft capital, the team would be sacrificing 3 young players for two guys approaching their mid-thirties, but these risks would be offset by an improved 2019-20 rotation, added 2020 FA flexibility, and the subtle appeasement of Luka Doncic by pairing him with his fellow countryman. I’m not quite sure if the team would be legally required to utilize its massive trade exception to consummate this deal, but if so it’s a tool I wouldn’t hesitate too much to employ.
I’d then continue the offseason by locking up our RFAs — Dodo and Maxi — ideally in the sub 10 million range over 3-4 years. I would not make use of any further exceptions (Mid-Level or Bi-Annual***Exception noted below) in order to preserve flexibility over the following two summers, but if a valuable player could be had for the MLE over 2 years (with a TO on the 3rd), then I wouldn’t be totally opposed, but I doubt it would be prudent.
Assuming Dirk and Harris retire, I’d round out the offseason by signing Tyson Chandler, Barea, and Mejri (further Luka appeasement) to veteran minimum contracts (Tyson might require the Bi-Annual...I'd give it to him, he's certainly earned it). Then have our 2nd Rd. Pick (wing?) compete with Macon and Kostas for a roster spot and reserve the other two players on two-ways (obviously weighing pros and cons for added g-league playing time vs. NBA team experience). With Barea unlikely to be back at the start of the season, Macon would likely get the nod to be the third-string PG until he returns, allowing Kostas to continue getting experience (and prolonging his 2-way eligibility) in the G-League. This leaves us with one open roster spot and some (and/or all) of our trade / Mid-Level / Bi-Annual exception(s) for in-season acquisition(s) and the following 2019-20 Mavericks Roster:
PG - L. Doncic / G. Dragic / J. Barea / D. Macon?
SG - K. Middleton / C. Lee / R. Broekhoff
SF - D. Finney-Smith / J. Jackson / 2nd Rd. Pick?
PF - M. Kleber / R. Anderson / K. Antetokounmpo?
C - K. Porzingis / T. Chandler / S. Mejri
That should be a playoff team with enough veterans to make a realistic run at a top-4 seed. The only guaranteed contracts on the books for the summer of 2021 will be Middleton (~33M) / Porzingis (~31.6M) / Doncic (~10.2M) / Finney-Smith (~10M) / Kleber (~10M) / +7 Roster Spots @~1M each. Depending on Middleton, DFS, and Kleba’s exact figures, and the salary cap that year, the club should be able to shed one of the two latter players (ideally Kleber) and be able to offer Giannis something very close to the max (~38M assuming a ~127M 2021 salary cap) provided that Dallas opts for a frugal approach in the summer of 2020. If Giannis can hit the 3 by then and Luka and KP reach their top 3 positional potential, this team would be set up for a Warriors-like Dynasty throughout the 2020s.
Your Middleton point I agree with.
To piggy back on what J_T said, there are real MAX and FAKE max players.
Real MAX: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, Kawai Leonoard, etc
FAKE MAX: Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris, Nikola Vuvevic, etc
Dallas is not going to get a real MAX. A point I would add here: Because we have 3 more years starting this summer of paying a REAL max player (Luka) a role player's salary (~$8-million per), we can afford overpaying for a fake max player. The combined average of the two players is $19 million, which is more than reasonable for both. This overpaying is worth it if said fake max player is a great fit. Khris Middleton is as good of a fit as you find (maybe the best? Klay is great but not a playmaker. Other players will take the ball out of Lukas hands, aren't great shooters/defenders. He really is exactly what we want + an All-Star).
That said, I think MIL has to match whatever offer we give and he would choose MIL/East/his current really good situation over Dallas. I still play that card but I dont think we win the hand.
