Luka Dončić Discussion - Year 2

leolozon · Post #1141 » by **leolozon** » Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:59 pm

J_T wrote:
Dirk wrote:
J_T wrote:If you are playing against Mavs, then your strategy makes sense to me (as we saw in last Lakers game). But against any team with half of one player's brain working, I am not sure how this makes sense. Surely when the time is running out the opposing team will foul you for two free throws?

I think that's actually a philosophical difference between the NBA and European basketball. Seems like in Europe you always foul. In the NBA, I have noticed over the years many European fans who were dumbfounded with teams not fouling like you suggest. In the NBA there are various coaches who don't foul in those situations.

I don't know, vs. Lakers everyone was criticizing the team and Carlisle for not fouling. He did say the intention was to foul but the execution was not there. I don't really understand that, but whatever he says. And Kleber has no philosophical excuse, he is German. He should have just let LeBron dunk if he wanted to.

I understand not fouling when there's more than 10 seconds left or the other team still has a time out, and you don't want to get into a FT fight.

But in the Lakers' case, there was basically 3 seconds left and no time out. If you foul Lebron (twice, because they had a foul to give), you've basically won. At worst, they would have had to throw a full court shot for the win. If you stick to the 3pt shooters and let him score 2pts, they're basically done too.

It's honestly one of the dumbest play I've seen in a while

Oscar9992 · Post #1142 » by **Oscar9992** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:24 am

Read on Twitter

J_T · Post #1143 » by **J_T** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:48 am

I like Lillard and always thought he was underrated but there is no way he keeps his current shooting %.

BlueSan · Post #1144 » by **BlueSan** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 8:49 am

No comment really. Would love to revisit this graf after 10 more games

Forbes · Post #1145 » by **Forbes** » Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:54 pm

J_T wrote:
Forbes wrote:One thing I also noticed, idk if it was Ricks plan or not but this Knick game was the second time the Mavs had no timeouts and opted for a quick score with time on the clock instead of just using up the time and going for a 3 to tie the game. IMO doesn’t make sense to go for a quick score when you have no timeouts and can’t advance. Use that clock to run a good play for a 3.

If you are playing against Mavs, then your strategy makes sense to me (as we saw in last Lakers game). But against any team with half of one player's brain working, I am not sure how this makes sense. Surely when the time is running out the opposing team will foul you for two free throws?

Not necessarily, it would be situational. If there 10 secs left I would only foul if the opposing team is hot from three or my perimeter defenders aren’t capable of a stop. Otherwise let my team play defense and stick to their man. Switch on every pick so there’s no open threes.

If you foul and give up one or two free throws, then they foul you and your player doesn’t connect on both, it’s not a fun situation.

J_T · Post #1146 » by **J_T** » Sun Nov 17, 2019 8:11 am

Forbes wrote:
J_T wrote:
Forbes wrote:One thing I also noticed, idk if it was Ricks plan or not but this Knick game was the second time the Mavs had no timeouts and opted for a quick score with time on the clock instead of just using up the time and going for a 3 to tie the game. IMO doesn’t make sense to go for a quick score when you have no timeouts and can’t advance. Use that clock to run a good play for a 3.

If you are playing against Mavs, then your strategy makes sense to me (as we saw in last Lakers game). But against any team with half of one player's brain working, I am not sure how this makes sense. Surely when the time is running out the opposing team will foul you for two free throws?

Not necessarily, it would be situational. If there 10 secs left I would only foul if the opposing team is hot from three or my perimeter defenders aren’t capable of a stop. Otherwise let my team play defense and stick to their man. Switch on every pick so there’s no open threes.

If you foul and give up one or two free throws, then they foul you and your player doesn’t connect on both, it’s not a fun situation.

Sure, I'm not saying foul immediately. I'm only saying that foul should be automatic under circumstances you describe, with time running out. So if you want to let time run out and then shoot with 2 seconds left, I would foul at that time. Now if you want to shoot with 10 seconds left, I wouldn't foul, just play D as you say.

DJ_3_Ball · Post #1147 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:34 am

Luka is going to finish tonight as the 4th leading scorer in the NBA.

fuller4379 · Post #1148 » by **fuller4379** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:39 am

Would you trade Luka for anyone in the league straight up? I say, "no". Maybe Antetokounmpo, but I would still take Luka. Luka is only 21 years old and is putting up 28.5/10.7/9.1. James is too old. Harden doesn't make his teammates better. Leonard has some injury problems and is a little old at 28.

Forbes · Post #1149 » by **Forbes** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 4:48 am

fuller4379 wrote:Would you trade Luka for anyone in the league straight up? I say, "no". Maybe Antetokounmpo, but I would still take Luka. Luka is only 21 years old and is putting up 28.5/10.7/9.1. James is too old. Harden doesn't make his teammates better. Leonard has some injury problems and is a little old at 28.

Hell no, Giannis is not winning anything until he can shoot.
Right now Luka is the top 3 most untradeable piece in the league. Put another Real star with Luka and you’re contending. Just imagine Luka and AD, Kwahi, or PG. That’s the level Luka is playing at.

I hope we make the playoffs just for the experience and I hope we play the Lakers.

DJ_3_Ball · Post #1150 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 7:16 am

fuller4379 wrote:Would you trade Luka for anyone in the league straight up? I say, "no". Maybe Antetokounmpo, but I would still take Luka. Luka is only 21 years old and is putting up 28.5/10.7/9.1. James is too old. Harden doesn't make his teammates better. Leonard has some injury problems and is a little old at 28.

I would have to probably pull the trigger on Luka for Giannis. But, Giannis is the only guy I'd take ahead of Luka, and I wouldn't immediately do it. I'd have to think about it long & hard.

Post #1151 » by **Dirk** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 1:18 pm

I wouldn'd trade Luka for any franchise. Luka just needs to keep working on his body, have the fortune of staying injury free and the rest will take care of itself. You're watching poetry in motion with this guy. I can even say **** winning if you're watching art every other night. Okay, I don't really mean that, do I? But trusting that he has the work ethic and that the Mavs play things right, I like the chances of winning with him and don't discredit the brand of basketball that he plays --- in other words, much better than watching Giannis in the example above.

Luka pretty much does all the things I enjoy watching. Apart from the occasional early clock 3 or step back or whatever... the rest is just pure gold. Let's see when he stops playing in god mode though. This year, 13 games. Only 1 bad. I even enjoyed the Portland game, apart from the brutal ending.

Spoiler:

Archx · Post #1152 » by **Archx** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:51 pm

Dirk wrote:I wouldn'd trade Luka for any franchise.

I honestly didn't think you were such fan of his. I always thought you're like, "meh if we got him, i guess i'll support him" type of guy

But it's awesome to have one of the most influential mods on our side 8-)

NY 567 · Post #1153 » by **NY 567** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:10 pm

Trading Luka for anyone, including Giannis, would be insane. He's over 4 years younger and almost already as good. Imagine if Doncic got his 3P% up to around 40, got shooters who will consistently knock down shots, and if KP gets himself right to take some pressure off of him? I mean, he's nowhere near his ceiling and he's a top 5 player, you'd have to be crazy to trade him for anyone

Post #1154 » by **Dirk** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 9:21 pm

NY 567 wrote:Trading Luka for anyone, including Giannis, would be insane. He's over 4 years younger and almost already as good. Imagine if Doncic got his 3P% up to around 40, got shooters who will consistently knock down shots, and if KP gets himself right to take some pressure off of him? I mean, he's nowhere near his ceiling and he's a top 5 player, you'd have to be crazy to trade him for anyone

It's ironic you're postng here as I was just reading a post from you on the General Board.

Yesterday, somebody bumped an old thread and I was close to quoting you there, but in the end I opted against "bumping old posts" and i saw some dubio users posting, so didnt want to join in.

It was this post, circa May 2018 probably:

Spoiler:

Somewhere in this topic viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1708811

This post also caught my eye from another user

Spoiler:

Also, I couldn't help myself to do it without laughing at these other ones,

Spoiler:

NY 567 · Post #1155 » by **NY 567** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:10 pm

Dirk wrote:
NY 567 wrote:Trading Luka for anyone, including Giannis, would be insane. He's over 4 years younger and almost already as good. Imagine if Doncic got his 3P% up to around 40, got shooters who will consistently knock down shots, and if KP gets himself right to take some pressure off of him? I mean, he's nowhere near his ceiling and he's a top 5 player, you'd have to be crazy to trade him for anyone

It's ironic you're postng here as I was just reading a post from you on the General Board.

Yesterday, somebody bumped an old thread and I was close to quoting you there, but in the end I opted against "bumping old posts" and i saw some dubio users posting, so didnt want to join in.

It was this post, circa May 2018 probably:

Spoiler:
NY 567 wrote:He's a 6'8 guard who is unbelievably skilled, and while not a top tier athlete his lack of athleticism is way overstated. He's also the most decorated draftee of all time, not another guy to enter the draft has had his accomplishments and pedigree. It's amazing to me how overlooked he is, he should be an easy number 1 projection, the fact that some have him going 4 or 5 boggles my mind. I have no idea why this is the case, it's bizarre.

Somewhere in this topic viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1708811

This post also caught my eye from another user
Spoiler:
3all5acc3 wrote:The notion that there needs to be some sort of precedent of a hyped European prospect living up to his hype in order for Luka to live up to his is so bizzare to me. I absolutely hate how popular it is to turn everything into some sort of stat and use that to backup or create your opinion.

I think it's pretty obvious that Luka will not be a bust. All the top players in Europe he's played against could have roles on NBA teams and Luka played better than all. Considering where the NBA currently seems to be headed, Luka will fit right in. He can switch on most players. Sure faster players will be able to get by him, but that seems to be better for the defense lately since it traps them against a big and forces them to pass, Luka is more than intelligent enough to switch correctly in the meantime. The current trend of high PnR heavy offenses will suit him very well. He crashes the boards and is able to explode into a fast break, where he is very adept at dribbling close to his body while sprinting and creating advantage situations with his running mates. He seems to draw an exceptional amount of fouls with his seemingly loose dribble and hunched over stance. He is just an efficient basketball player all around.

In order to evolve into more than a very solid starter he will have to improve his body the way Oladipo did over this offseason. He will need to strengthen his core and trim his "baby fat". Where other people see his body as a grown man's body and a finished product, I believe that he has yet to really work on it and bring it to its maximum potential. The way I see it is that most American prospects seem to be there already.

This guy is an absolutely safe pick, you may hit a homerun with the centers but those guys have a way higher chance to bust than Doncic.

Also, I couldn't help myself to do it without laughing at these other ones,

Spoiler:
He looks really bad. Teams 1-6 should pass on him. We'll take a flyer at 7

Way too overhyped. A decent player with a low ceiling. Ingles/Batum maybe Ginobili.

hes already peaked he will be a turkuglu type player

Before you jump on me with the "but he is so good for his age" crap, let me tell you why I think he is just a type of a player who matures early but also hits the ceiling early.

He doesn't have even the basis of at least one go-to move which is needed in order to be really great. And unless at least one entirely new (go-to) move pops up during Doncic's carrier and becomes polished quickly, he will be a little improved but still a limited player which he is today. There are simply no existing elements in his game which indicate that he will ever be able to really create his own shot.

Not every great player or allstar was good as Doncic in those young years, but you could still see that the elements in their games are there, they just needed work. For example, Dirk sucked as young but he got all the elements already - he just worked on them during following years and the rest is history. Doncic doesn't have any elements, either he will have to add them and quickly polish them, or he will just be a role player. He even couldn't manage to create his own shot against a center who switched on him (in the final game of the f4), after a crappy attempt to do something he just thrown the ball like an amateur.

Discuss and feel free to bump this thread if anyone will still care about Doncic after not justifying the hype

I remember posting that. A lot of people will have to eat a lot of crow regarding Luka Doncic, thankfully I won't' be one of them, lol.

J_T · Post #1156 » by **J_T** » Tue Nov 19, 2019 11:20 pm

You can always quote me, Dirk. Here is my post from Sep 10th 2017. I had forgotten about it, but I recently got And1 for it so I read again what I was thinking back then.

J_T wrote:I think Doncic will be a perennial AS. I also predict that Doncic will be a triple double machine and has a good chance of having a triple double season or two. When it comes to "generational" talent, I would never claim that for anyone, because the odds are just heavily stacked against everyone. Let's put it this way: by me betting against any "generational talents" in last 20 years, I'd become rich. And yes, I would have bet against LeBron being a generational player as well, that's the one bet I would have lost. It's safe to always be skeptical and bet against next big thing.

That being said, there are talents and there are talents. When Bargnani was drafted as number 1 I laughed at the hype. To me he had bust written all over his face, he looked like a softie with no winning mentality. Bargnani actually had a better NBA career than I thought he'd have. When I see Doncic play, he looks like a stud to me. Also there is a big difference when it comes to WHO is creating the hype. Fan created hype means nothing. As a contrarian by nature, I usually go against what the crowd says, worked out pretty well for me. In case of Doncic, the hype is being created by some very experienced and respectable talent scouts. If one of them says Doncic is the biggest talent they have ever monitored, why would I doubt their words? Recently one of the most known European coaches admitted that he had thought Doncic was over-hyped - until he saw him playing live. Now he is a believer and says he is the biggest talent since Drazen Petrovic. Again, who am I to doubt someone as respected (and old) as this guy who had seen everything?

Another interesting thing I've noticed with all these pro scouts is, that they all seem to have big difficulties finding NBA comparisons for Doncic. One of them admitted that he had never had so many problems finding a comparable player. He actually couldn't have come with anyone, but he had to pick some players, it's his job. Most of these experts pick a starter on a top team type of a comparison but then add "only better". It's a pretty safe way to do it, because nobody says how much better. In case of Doncic I actually think that inability to find perfect NBA comparisons works in his favor, not against him. Let's face it - if he actually becomes a superstar with his particular skill set, he'd been a pretty unique one.

I do have to say that I think physical predispositions are overrated, even in NBA. Over the last couple of decades I have heard too many times something along "he has the physical predispositions, he can always learn everything else". Guess what, they almost never do learn "everything else", they do however ALWAYS physically improve. Doncic will physically improve, just like every other Euro coming to the NBA in last 30 years. The only thing that I believe can be relatively easily learned after the draft is playing defense. I have seen players that played no defense at all becoming solid defensive players so when it comes to getting the defense learned, I am a believer. When it comes to shooting, passing, vision, ball control - I am always skeptical.

Just browsing around that old thread and I have to say there are so many bad posts there. Would be too easy to quote them. I'll quote some good ones though.

Sep 16th

THE J0KER wrote:Key Word: ShootingPointGuardForward
Ceiling: James Harden
Floor: Joe Johnson

Sep 21st

UcanUwill wrote:Ha at Mario Hezonja floor. 17 year old Luka was already miles better player than Hezonja ever was. Luka does literally everything much better at basketball than Hezonja could ever do, excluding jumping. Good luck with that bust.

His floor is more like Joe Ingles, if you think DOncic already peaked, that is.
He can turn out as new Paul Pierce.

This was actually an interesting one, I don't remember many claiming Pierce as his comp, but there was a stat somewhere not long ago that had only few players on it, you know one of those "only players in history with this or that" and Luka and Paul Pierce were on it, along with couple others. Can't remember what it was about though.

Jan 2018

UcanUwill wrote:His floor is Evan Turner
Ceiling : James Harden

leolozon · Post #1157 » by **leolozon** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:44 pm

Looking back at his game log, the Denver game sticks out so much. He must have been sick. I remember him being really passive.

12/4/5 on 12FGA

It's by far his worst game. Nothing else is even close. What's his 2nd worst game? Probably against Portland the game right before? 29/12/9 but on 22 shots and 14 FTs. Pretty incredible that this could be his 2nd worst game.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3945274/luka-doncic

Imon · Post #1158 » by **Imon** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:26 pm

leolozon wrote:Looking back at his game log, the Denver game sticks out so much. He must have been sick. I remember him being really passive.

12/4/5 on 12FGA

It's by far his worst game. Nothing else is even close. What's his 2nd worst game? Probably against Portland the game right before? 29/12/9 but on 22 shots and 14 FTs. Pretty incredible that this could be his 2nd worst game.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3945274/luka-doncic

Still fairly early in the season. Luka will likely have more bad games - the strange thing about the Denver game is that the Mavs won. Even Dirk as a veteran player had his bad games from time to time.
If the other guys around Luka (including KP) play well this team can be competitive.

Now only if Luka could bump his 3-pt percentage to maybe around 35% this season and hopefully around 40% in the middle of his prime he'd be a nearly flawless player. His FT shooting could use work too but I don't really see him becoming a 90% shooter like Dirk. If he could stay around 85% I'd be happy. It would be so freakin' awesome if one day Luka could join the 50/40/90 club like Dirk.

J_T · Post #1159 » by **J_T** » Wed Nov 20, 2019 8:00 pm

Imon wrote:
leolozon wrote:Looking back at his game log, the Denver game sticks out so much. He must have been sick. I remember him being really passive.

12/4/5 on 12FGA

It's by far his worst game. Nothing else is even close. What's his 2nd worst game? Probably against Portland the game right before? 29/12/9 but on 22 shots and 14 FTs. Pretty incredible that this could be his 2nd worst game.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3945274/luka-doncic

Still fairly early in the season. Luka will likely have more bad games - the strange thing about the Denver game is that the Mavs won. Even Dirk as a veteran player had his bad games from time to time.
If the other guys around Luka (including KP) play well this team can be competitive.

Now only if Luka could bump his 3-pt percentage to maybe around 35% this season and hopefully around 40% in the middle of his prime he'd be a nearly flawless player. His FT shooting could use work too but I don't really see him becoming a 90% shooter like Dirk. If he could stay around 85% I'd be happy. It would be so freakin' awesome if one day Luka could join the 50/40/90 club like Dirk.

Doncic will never be a 50-40-90 player. He is on pace for over 700 three pointers. There is only one qualifying season above 380 attempted three pointers and that's Curry who was shooting absurd 45.4%. Curry shooting 500 3-pointers at "only" 42% rate was already too bad.
Dirk got into the club because he shot only 173 three pointers. Luka is already at 118 attempts after only 13 games. Fun fact - if Dirk shot only 30 more three pointers that season, so 203 instead of 173, he would not have made the 50-40-90 club. And the guy was shooting 41.6%!

Imon · Post #1160 » by **Imon** » Thu Nov 21, 2019 12:15 am

J_T wrote:
Imon wrote:
leolozon wrote:Looking back at his game log, the Denver game sticks out so much. He must have been sick. I remember him being really passive.

12/4/5 on 12FGA

It's by far his worst game. Nothing else is even close. What's his 2nd worst game? Probably against Portland the game right before? 29/12/9 but on 22 shots and 14 FTs. Pretty incredible that this could be his 2nd worst game.

https://www.espn.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/3945274/luka-doncic

Still fairly early in the season. Luka will likely have more bad games - the strange thing about the Denver game is that the Mavs won. Even Dirk as a veteran player had his bad games from time to time.
If the other guys around Luka (including KP) play well this team can be competitive.

Now only if Luka could bump his 3-pt percentage to maybe around 35% this season and hopefully around 40% in the middle of his prime he'd be a nearly flawless player. His FT shooting could use work too but I don't really see him becoming a 90% shooter like Dirk. If he could stay around 85% I'd be happy. It would be so freakin' awesome if one day Luka could join the 50/40/90 club like Dirk.

Doncic will never be a 50-40-90 player. He is on pace for over 700 three pointers. There is only one qualifying season above 380 attempted three pointers and that's Curry who was shooting absurd 45.4%. Curry shooting 500 3-pointers at "only" 42% rate was already too bad.
Dirk got into the club because he shot only 173 three pointers. Luka is already at 118 attempts after only 13 games. Fun fact - if Dirk shot only 30 more three pointers that season, so 203 instead of 173, he would not have made the 50-40-90 club. And the guy was shooting 41.6%!

I'm not sure it's the 3-pointers holding Luka back from never making the 50/40/90 club I think it would be the FT shooting.
I do agree it's next to impossible to make the club if you jack up a bunch of 3's but one of the underrated part of Luka's season so far has been his 2pt%. He's currently sitting at an impressive 61% 2pt%! If Luka could maintain this high 2pt% and cut down his 3PTA by half it might be possible to have a 50% FG if he ever manages to achieve an elite 3pt%.