Luka Dončić Discussion - Year 2

[XTraderXL]

I actually mean he's better defender than many people give him credit for. Westbrook, is one of the most explosive player in the league. But Doncic does succeed in staying in front of him at 17 yo. I only mean shooting from long range and efficiency in crowded paint are area of concerns for him moving forward. He's obviously better than Lonzo Ball.

His shot should not be a concern. For anyone thats been watching Real games for the past few years, it is clear that his 3P% are not truly representative of his shooting abilities. First of all, Real had practically no plays for Luka to get open, 90% of his shots he had to create for himself so a lot of them were contested. Also as I mentioned, the % dropped after he started declining physically. He takes every shot at the end of the quarter/game even if its from under his own basket. That dropped his % by a few points. Someone made a study of his 3P% during the season without those full court shots (they even took out the ones he made so it would be more representative) and his actual % was something like 39.5%. Luka is also very good in catch and shoot situations, the problem was that he had to make plays for others and there was nobody that did the same thing for him so he very rarely found himself in those situations.

All in all, his shooting will be just fine because he has the touch and is able to take and make any kind of shot from step back, catch and shoot, spot up to one legged 3P floater shots and full court shots.


As far as his defense, he is definitely a better defender than people think but only when he needs/wants to be. He is able to play very good on defense but his role this past season was so great on offense that he just could not play to his full ability on defense. He will not be 1st team all defense but not a liability either.

[arkuo]

At his skillset Luka might be best fit at SF. But knowing Carlisle, he can and will have opponents adjust to him by playing Luka from 1 to 4. Every night it will be a differrnt scheme against a different team. What we're sure of is Luka will be a starter from day one. As to what position is TBD every game it seems.

[Rn5ho]

It was me actually who did the "small study" on Luka's 3pt shot - and his % would be around 35.5%~ without the shots taken in last seconds. That's still not eite, but much better. But then as XlTraderXL mentioned, Real literally never prepared any plays for him and majority of his 3pt shots were stepbacks/off-dribble. I can barely ever remember him having open stop up 3s.. he just had to handle the ball to much for that and noone else was able to create.

Anyway, I also think he will 100% play at least some 4 in the future - he has his father's physique, which means he is/will be huge. Not a crazy athlete, but he will have this raw strength that will allow him to take on pretty much anyone. His father was knows as "The Tank" in Slovenia.. not for no reason either. And having a playmaker who can shoot, rebound and defend at 4 is deadly.. I could see him like Draymond Green, but instead of elite defense having elite offensive game.

[Teffer10]

At his skillset Luka might be best fit at SF. But knowing Carlisle, he can and will have opponents adjust to him by playing Luka from 1 to 4. Every night it will be a differrnt scheme against a different team. What we're sure of is Luka will be a starter from day one. As to what position is TBD every game it seems.

I think that is the main reason they traded up to get him....a great tool for Carlisle to work with.
I don't know if he will ever become a star but is certainly the ultimate fit for Carlisle's system.

[arkuo]

At his skillset Luka might be best fit at SF. But knowing Carlisle, he can and will have opponents adjust to him by playing Luka from 1 to 4. Every night it will be a differrnt scheme against a different team. What we're sure of is Luka will be a starter from day one. As to what position is TBD every game it seems.

I think that is the main reason they traded up to get him....a great tool for Carlisle to work with.
I don't know if he will ever become a star but is certainly the ultimate fit for Carlisle's system.

Yeah. At the very least we're sure that he's not going to bust. As to what level he can raise his game to, we'll find out in 2 to 3 years, I think.

[Mirotic12]

So now that Luka has grown to a legit 6'9. with him being only 19, you guys think he grows to 6'10 or 6'11? or that's pushing it?

I don't think that he is exactly 6'9 in shoes. It has been discussed that he is probably around 6'8.5 and this could be rounded in either direction. There is no way I can see him growing above 6'9. Probably not even up to 6'9.

Interesting. At 6'8.5 to 6'9, he's now even taller than Barnes. In which case he can play PF too. A position where his speed (or lack thereof) becomes an advantage over opposing PFs. That's Ben Simmons territory. DSJ + Deandre + 3 interchangeable wings. That's probably it.

He's not 6-9. Even if NBA listed him at that - he's not that tall. He's more like 6-8 in shoes. But the current NBA height listing for him, of 6-6 in shoes is definitely ridiculous. That's how tall he was at like age 15.

[J_T]

I don't think that he is exactly 6'9 in shoes. It has been discussed that he is probably around 6'8.5 and this could be rounded in either direction. There is no way I can see him growing above 6'9. Probably not even up to 6'9.

Interesting. At 6'8.5 to 6'9, he's now even taller than Barnes. In which case he can play PF too. A position where his speed (or lack thereof) becomes an advantage over opposing PFs. That's Ben Simmons territory. DSJ + Deandre + 3 interchangeable wings. That's probably it.

He's not 6-9. Even if NBA listed him at that - he's not that tall. He's more like 6-8 in shoes. But the current NBA height listing for him, of 6-6 in shoes is definitely ridiculous. That's how tall he was at like age 15.

I thought that you measured him a year ago and he was 6'1? What was it, can't remember the details... I believe you asked him to stand still next to your life size Spanoulis doll (with clothes on, of course) and he was considerably ... smaller.

[Mr B]

I don't think that he is exactly 6'9 in shoes. It has been discussed that he is probably around 6'8.5 and this could be rounded in either direction. There is no way I can see him growing above 6'9. Probably not even up to 6'9.

Interesting. At 6'8.5 to 6'9, he's now even taller than Barnes. In which case he can play PF too. A position where his speed (or lack thereof) becomes an advantage over opposing PFs. That's Ben Simmons territory. DSJ + Deandre + 3 interchangeable wings. That's probably it.

He's not 6-9. Even if NBA listed him at that - he's not that tall. He's more like 6-8 in shoes. But the current NBA height listing for him, of 6-6 in shoes is definitely ridiculous. That's how tall he was at like age 15.

According to Dirk he’s a legit 6’8”-6’9”. In the recent radio interview he did with Dan Patrick he said when he met Luka he stood next to him and mentioned he’s a legit 6’8”-6’9”. I do think SF will be his eventual position. I also think that his shooting % will also get much better the longer he’s in the NBA. Being that he’s a facilitator I see his ultimate ceiling a cross between Steve Nash and a poor man’s Labron. Obviously Labron is way more athletic than Luka will ever be but I think that is the type of player he will end up being. I don’t think he will ever be the top scorer on the Mavs but I do expect him to be the assist leader and the guy that always initiates the offense. I do think he will always be one of the top rebounders on the team. In order for the Mavs to be their best and in order for Luka to be his best the Mavs are still going to need an elite scorer. I don’t know if Dennis is that guy. That guy may need to come in a trade.

[XTraderXL]

I don't think that he is exactly 6'9 in shoes. It has been discussed that he is probably around 6'8.5 and this could be rounded in either direction. There is no way I can see him growing above 6'9. Probably not even up to 6'9.

Interesting. At 6'8.5 to 6'9, he's now even taller than Barnes. In which case he can play PF too. A position where his speed (or lack thereof) becomes an advantage over opposing PFs. That's Ben Simmons territory. DSJ + Deandre + 3 interchangeable wings. That's probably it.

He's not 6-9. Even if NBA listed him at that - he's not that tall. He's more like 6-8 in shoes. But the current NBA height listing for him, of 6-6 in shoes is definitely ridiculous. That's how tall he was at like age 15.

For 3 years now you have been obsessed with his height.... Just let it go already. If someone would have said he is 6-10, you would probably have a heart attack;-)

[JamesConway]

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[Spanish_Laker]

I've been watching him for the last two years here in Spain and this kid is the real deal. He is much better than most people think, people in the US tend to underrate the very competitive Euroleague and he won the MVP. He's extremely balanced, very good at both ends. This guy doesn't have any glaring weakness, he's by far the best rookie of this draft.

[Jstock12]

I've been watching him for the last two years here in Spain and this kid is the real deal. He is much better than most people think, people in the US tend to underrate the very competitive Euroleague and he won the MVP. He's extremely balanced, very good at both ends. This guy doesn't have any glaring weakness, he's by far the best rookie of this draft.

I think there's no doubt he has one of the highest floors. I just wonder about his ceiling. Time will tell I guess.

[UcanUwill]

I've been watching him for the last two years here in Spain and this kid is the real deal. He is much better than most people think, people in the US tend to underrate the very competitive Euroleague and he won the MVP. He's extremely balanced, very good at both ends. This guy doesn't have any glaring weakness, he's by far the best rookie of this draft.

Saying he has no weaknesses is a big of a stretch. He is still not very quick, lacks first step and his D isnt all that great at all. When your go to move is 24 foot step back, thats not the greatest thing, unless you James Harden. And Doncic is very Harden esque and super advanced for his age, but lets not overhype the kid, his main competition at Euroleague MVP was Nande De Colo and Nick Calathes after all...

[XTraderXL]

I've been watching him for the last two years here in Spain and this kid is the real deal. He is much better than most people think, people in the US tend to underrate the very competitive Euroleague and he won the MVP. He's extremely balanced, very good at both ends. This guy doesn't have any glaring weakness, he's by far the best rookie of this draft.

Saying he has no weaknesses is a big of a stretch. He is still not very quick, lacks first step and his D isnt all that great at all. When your go to move is 24 foot step back, thats not the greatest thing, unless you James Harden. And Doncic is very Harden esque and super advanced for his age, but lets not overhype the kid, his main competition at Euroleague MVP was Nande De Colo and Nick Calathes after all...

The guy said no glaring weaknesses which is not the same as no weaknesses. Its actually quite a big difference.

On another note, all his weaknesses you mentioned are there but all of them can be somewhat improved upon. Luka has shown that he can be more explosive and quicker than he was in the second half of last season. Just go back to the Eurobasket and first few months of EL when he was physically much better (and skinnier), the difference is obvious. In any case as far as I am hearing he has been working hard on his body this summer and that he looks impressive compared to a couple of months ago. I think we will see an improved version of Doncic in every aspect and that should be more than enough to be in serious contention for ROY.

[UcanUwill]

I've been watching him for the last two years here in Spain and this kid is the real deal. He is much better than most people think, people in the US tend to underrate the very competitive Euroleague and he won the MVP. He's extremely balanced, very good at both ends. This guy doesn't have any glaring weakness, he's by far the best rookie of this draft.

Saying he has no weaknesses is a big of a stretch. He is still not very quick, lacks first step and his D isnt all that great at all. When your go to move is 24 foot step back, thats not the greatest thing, unless you James Harden. And Doncic is very Harden esque and super advanced for his age, but lets not overhype the kid, his main competition at Euroleague MVP was Nande De Colo and Nick Calathes after all...

The guy said no glaring weaknesses which is not the same as no weaknesses. Its actually quite a big difference.

On another note, all his weaknesses you mentioned are there but all of them can be somewhat improved upon. Luka has shown that he can be more explosive and quicker than he was in the second half of last season. Just go back to the Eurobasket and first few months of EL when he was physically much better (and skinnier), the difference is obvious. In any case as far as I am hearing he has been working hard on his body this summer and that he looks impressive compared to a couple of months ago. I think we will see an improved version of Doncic in every aspect and that should be more than enough to be in serious contention for ROY.

Well, I think those weaknesses are somewhat glaring. its very hard in this league to become superstar, when you are average to below average athlete, which Doncic is. I keep hearing how Doncic can improve his athleticism, but honestly, how often that happens? how many 19 year old athletes become more athletic when they age?

[XTraderXL]

As I said in my post, Luka was much better athletically at the Eurobasket and at the start of the club season than he was after late January. If he can improve on how he was a year ago, he will be just fine. The guy is 6-8, 235 and not some 6-3 PG. Thats a huge difference. He doesnt need to be a world class athlete. And athleticism can be improved quite a lot, everyone who is claiming thats not the case is wrong. Especially in Doncics case as he has never been in top physical condition, he has always been soft with too much extra fat. Once he gets that under control he will be better than you think.

One more thing. You ask how many athletes become more athletic as the age. Well, the sport where pure athletic ability matters most (speed, explosiveness) is 100m dash. Those guys are generally at their peak at 24-28 years of age and not at 19. I have seen people asking this question before but the premise is completely wrong. Besides, basketball is much more than just athletic ability, virtually every player is much better at 30 than at 22 even though they were much more athletic at 22.

As you might remeber I was saying all last season that he needs to improve on his athleticism and that is all about correct diet, discipline and hard work. He will have the best coaches and equipment available and the rest is on him. After hearing only good things on him working out this summer, I am not really worried. I had my concerns about Lukas athletic ability but after hearing first hand how hard he has been working and how his body transformed already, I think he will be ok.

[J_T]

Well, I think those weaknesses are somewhat glaring. its very hard in this league to become superstar, when you are average to below average athlete, which Doncic is. I keep hearing how Doncic can improve his athleticism, but honestly, how often that happens? how many 19 year old athletes become more athletic when they age?

I believe the percentage of 19-year old athletes who become more athletic when they join NBA is around 100%. If I had to come up with a realistic estimation I'd say 98.5%. Most of the remaining 1.5% are those that were already physical freaks, one of a kind athletes at the draft.

The percentage of European 20-year old players who became more athletic after joining NBA is 100% - as long as they were not just warming bench for a season and then returned to Europe.

[UcanUwill]

Well, I think those weaknesses are somewhat glaring. its very hard in this league to become superstar, when you are average to below average athlete, which Doncic is. I keep hearing how Doncic can improve his athleticism, but honestly, how often that happens? how many 19 year old athletes become more athletic when they age?

I believe the percentage of 19-year old athletes who become more athletic when they join NBA is around 100%. If I had to come up with a realistic estimation I'd say 98.5%. Most of the remaining 1.5% are those that were already physical freaks, one of a kind athletes at the draft.

The percentage of European 20-year old players who became more athletic after joining NBA is 100% - as long as they were not just warming bench for a season and then returned to Europe.

Give me one clearly noticeable example.

[Darren]

As I said in my post, Luka was much better athletically at the Eurobasket and at the start of the club season than he was after late January. If he can improve on how he was a year ago, he will be just fine. The guy is 6-8, 235 and not some 6-3 PG. Thats a huge difference. He doesnt need to be a world class athlete. And athleticism can be improved quite a lot, everyone who is claiming thats not the case is wrong. Especially in Doncics case as he has never been in top physical condition, he has always been soft with too much extra fat. Once he gets that under control he will be better than you think.

One more thing. You ask how many athletes become more athletic as the age. Well, the sport where pure athletic ability matters most (speed, explosiveness) is 100m dash. Those guys are generally at their peak at 24-28 years of age and not at 19. I have seen people asking this question before but the premise is completely wrong. Besides, basketball is much more than just athletic ability, virtually every player is much better at 30 than at 22 even though they were much more athletic at 22.

As you might remeber I was saying all last season that he needs to improve on his athleticism and that is all about correct diet, discipline and hard work. He will have the best coaches and equipment available and the rest is on him. After hearing only good things on him working out this summer, I am not really worried. I had my concerns about Lukas athletic ability but after hearing first hand how hard he has been working and how his body transformed already, I think he will be ok.

Basically, you're saying Jalen Brunson doesn't belong to this league, which I agree until proven overwise. Athleticism may not be improved a lot. But yet, Luka seems to be able to improve on fat-muscle ratio compared with Brunson. However, it doesn't mean athleticism is not important. Even unathletic Harden has a pretty quick first step. I think Doncic will make Smith a more completed PG and franchise player like all elite PGs. Smith could be the face of the franchise with Doncic being a highly effective supporting player. Even Fournier is a starter. Doncic is easily more athletic than Fournier. To compete against the likes of LBJ requires a pretty big jump, especially defensively.

[J_T]

Well, I think those weaknesses are somewhat glaring. its very hard in this league to become superstar, when you are average to below average athlete, which Doncic is. I keep hearing how Doncic can improve his athleticism, but honestly, how often that happens? how many 19 year old athletes become more athletic when they age?

I believe the percentage of 19-year old athletes who become more athletic when they join NBA is around 100%. If I had to come up with a realistic estimation I'd say 98.5%. Most of the remaining 1.5% are those that were already physical freaks, one of a kind athletes at the draft.

The percentage of European 20-year old players who became more athletic after joining NBA is 100% - as long as they were not just warming bench for a season and then returned to Europe.

Give me one clearly noticeable example.

One? You can't be serious. Ok, Dirk Nowitzki.

What do you think athleticism is, exactly? Would you say that Brock Lesnar is athletic, for example? Physically, what is it that decides level of athleticism in your opinion? It has to be based on something inside the body. There's not much inside of our bodies that we would not be able to improve. So I'm really interested to hear what is it inside of our bodies that (solely) decides level of athleticism and has a property of not being "improvable".