Luka Dončić Discussion - Year 2

[Dirk]

I watch games very closely (reason why I am never online), so to explain my process through this latest one...

I was in awe (as I always am) at "little things" that are not so little. But just those things that you see that reveal that one player just is born with a distinctive instinct that allows him to seemingly process all kinds of information and then produce innovative plays and totally control the flow of the game.

I care about winning games, but as you watch the little "big" things, you end up just shrugging (just like in this one where it felt they were blowing the game multiple times). Mavs could go 0-40 or whatever the rest of the year and this season would be a great success.

I keep expecting him to hit some sort of wall. To have a bad run, like it happens not only to rookies but even seasoned players. Hasn't happened. A bad game here and there, some questionable shot selection or poor percentages, but overall, no signs of slowing up. The opposite... you see the Mavs have what feel like really bad games and you look at the stat sheet and he has his usual line.

What will it be like if he gets his FT% up to over 80 and he gets better at finishing at the rim... and of course... also gets more/hits more spot up 3 pointers. Can't project how obscene is TS% will be.

Moving on. Wolves.

I am a sucker for these passes.

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I am amused at how he looks "unathletic" and yet we see him make plays where he literally waits until the very last instant at times and delivers bullet cross court passes or lobs it up or throws it off the floor with a spin or behind the defenders back. Just pure signs of rare instincts for the game. When he was blocked by Rose at the end, he had a split second and it still felt like he had scanned three different options to get out of that bad situation, but no one was close enough to bail it out.

The future...

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Barnes "I feel like in GS again shot"

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[burek3]

Gfycat Video - Click to Play

When he converts his fat to muscle, the elbow corner turning through the screen will become the ultimate destroyer move. Lebronesque.

[burek3]

And one more thing...

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This should have been an and-1.

[Suka Bongcic]

Luka needs to have the ball in his hands 24-7. Trade Dennis Smith jr and get a PG that can play d and hit the 3.

If they aren’t going to trade smith, they need to incorporate a Doncic and smith pick and roll/pop to take advantage of their strengths.

They should.

But I don't think DSJ is the main problem. It's a bigger issue for me when they go several possessions in a row with post ups, iso or dribble hand offs to Wes and Barnes, usually with Doncic just standing in the corner.

Long term, Doncic needs shooters and defenders around him. That should be the game plan. Get to it. Smith can’t shoot and isn’t very good on D. Smith needs the ball. Doncic needs the ball. Doncic is 100x the player Smith is. It’s a no brained. I loved the smith pick 2 years ago. Now, it’s not looking so good with the addition of Doncic. He needs players that compliments him. Smith doesn’t do that

[thr3ep01nte4]

Long term, Doncic needs shooters and defenders around him. That should be the game plan. Get to it. Smith can’t shoot and isn’t very good on D. Smith needs the ball. Doncic needs the ball. Doncic is 100x the player Smith is. It’s a no brained. I loved the smith pick 2 years ago. Now, it’s not looking so good with the addition of Doncic. He needs players that compliments him. Smith doesn’t do that

Generally agree. DSJ right now is a minus. He's a flow interrupter on offense. He doesn't have solid basketball fundamentals. A guy like Paul George will be ideal next to Luka.

[Pointguard01]

Bradley Beal is someone I've been thinking alot about. He's a good defender, can guard SG/PGs and is a really good secondary ball-handler. He's been in a situation where he wasn't the primary ball-handler (John Wall) and had success. He also is 25 years old so he has another 5-6 years in his prime. A Luka-Beal backcourt could be really dominant over the next 2-3 years.

I'd offer DSJ, Wes's expiring and take on a bad contract to get Beal. I don't think we have enough, and probably have to rope in a 3rd team, but I would pretty much be all in on Beal as a 2nd fiddle to Luka. It's hard to make it work, since Washington may be stuck with John Wall at PG and their interest in DSJ then is less. Would have to leverage PHX/ORL as a 3rd team, while taking on the bad contracts.

G- Doncic | Brunson
G - Beal | _______
F - Barnes | Finney-Smith
F - Kleber | _______
C- _______ | ________

I'd ride into the 2019 offseason with this foundation. Again, this is more of a dream, bc it's very difficult to get it done.

[JPF]

I keep expecting him to hit some sort of wall. To have a bad run, like it happens not only to rookies but even seasoned players. Hasn't happened. A bad game here and there, some questionable shot selection or poor percentages, but overall, no signs of slowing up. The opposite... you see the Mavs have what feel like really bad games and you look at the stat sheet and he has his usual line.

When he was 17 and he started receiving some serious minutes and responsibilities with Real and his performances weren't just a fluke, or even some incredible ammount of good luck with which a 16 years old could rationaly do, what he did a year before... I said to myself: "that's it, opponents are going to start paying attention now, he will be defended from now on, it's just a matter of time, when he hits the wall.
Than came the eurobasket. Before I though that there is no way, considering the limitations Slovenia had with the roster, that Luka would be able to perform as well, against some of the best defenders.... he did not hit the wall, but got into all-eurobasket first lineup instead, visibly surpasing his own level from 3 months ago...
In his last season with Real, It was scarry to think what would actualy happen if Luka kept on going with the same pace of progress he has shown. I didn't dare believing that he would not hit the wall at some point finaly... he won the euroleague and got elected MVP instead, once again, notably improving every few months...
Than came the NBA and... I am giving up on Luka hiting the wall in his rookie season...

Just wanted to say that you are not alone wondering about it

[Archx]

In his last season with Real, It was scarry to think what would actualy happen if Luka kept on going with the same pace of progress he has shown. I didn't dare believing that he would not hit the wall at some point finaly... he won the euroleague and got elected MVP instead, once again, notably improving every few months...

Just wanted to say that you are not alone wondering about it

But this is where you are wrong actually. After the injury which sidelined him for about 10-14 days, he wasn't looking the same. His efficiency and index started to drop significantly. Granted it could have been because teams prepared more for him but he still looked slow and heavy footed. We were pointing that out for months.
But yea maybe he won't hit rookie wall in the NBA since he is more experienced now. But actually i think he already had his bad stretch of games when he couldn't even stay on the floor for more than 30 mins... That happened not long ago, so maybe he is already through that. We'll see soon enough. February is usually the month when rookies start to have some bad stretches.

[Mr B]

Someone needs to fix his head for the free throws. I don't think it's physical issue. If he can hit tough stepback 3s in crunch time, he for sure should hit his FTs.

That’s something I’m sure he will be working on in the off season. From everything I’ve read about him he’s similar to Dirk in the sense that he looks to add something to his game every offseason. Within the next couple of seasons I expect he’ll be in the 90% range when it comes to his free throws.

[Mr B]

Luka needs to have the ball in his hands 24-7. Trade Dennis Smith jr and get a PG that can play d and hit the 3.

If they aren’t going to trade smith, they need to incorporate a Doncic and smith pick and roll/pop to take advantage of their strengths.

That is something that will come with time if they don’t trade DSJ. Dennis first needs to be better at running the pick and roll. People forget that Dennis is only 21 years old and this is only his 2nd season. JET was in the league like 4-5 years before he got to Dallas and it still took him him 1-2 year before he was proficient at running the P&R with Dirk. It takes time. I know everyone wants immediate gratification but chemistry on the court doesn’t work that way. As fans we need to be patient.

[agentofatlas]

Luka needs to have the ball in his hands 24-7. Trade Dennis Smith jr and get a PG that can play d and hit the 3.

If they aren’t going to trade smith, they need to incorporate a Doncic and smith pick and roll/pop to take advantage of their strengths.

That is something that will come with time if they don’t trade DSJ. Dennis first needs to be better at running the pick and roll. People forget that Dennis is only 21 years old and this is only his 2nd season. JET was in the league like 4-5 years before he got to Dallas and it still took him him 1-2 year before he was proficient at running the P&R with Dirk. It takes time. I know everyone wants immediate gratification but chemistry on the court doesn’t work that way. As fans we need to be patient.

This season will tell what direction they will go in imo. If Luka continues to improve and plays like a legit franchise player (keeping the team in the playoff hunt), Cuban will most definitely go all in. If Luka regresses wether by fatigue or whatever they'll stay the course with developing DSJ.

Also guys you got to temper your expectations on what players the team could get. Beal and Paul George is a pipe dream at this point.

[Archx]

Also guys you got to temper your expectations on what players the team could get. Beal and Paul George is a pipe dream at this point.

Yeah some people expect AD, PG13, Giannis and Porzingis all coming here lmao... Best way would be to just develop young guys with a help from veterans. Well i would still trade Wesley but i am quite cool even if DSJ stays. They just need to realize who their main guy is and build around. I think Rick already is doing that since the PHX game. Worked nicely so far.

[Mr B]

Luka needs to have the ball in his hands 24-7. Trade Dennis Smith jr and get a PG that can play d and hit the 3.

If they aren’t going to trade smith, they need to incorporate a Doncic and smith pick and roll/pop to take advantage of their strengths.

That is something that will come with time if they don’t trade DSJ. Dennis first needs to be better at running the pick and roll. People forget that Dennis is only 21 years old and this is only his 2nd season. JET was in the league like 4-5 years before he got to Dallas and it still took him him 1-2 year before he was proficient at running the P&R with Dirk. It takes time. I know everyone wants immediate gratification but chemistry on the court doesn’t work that way. As fans we need to be patient.

This season will tell what direction they will go in imo. If Luka continues to improve and plays like a legit franchise player (keeping the team in the playoff hunt), Cuban will most definitely go all in. If Luka regresses wether by fatigue or whatever they'll stay the course with developing DSJ.

Also guys you got to temper your expectations on what players the team could get. Beal and Paul George is a pipe dream at this point.

Paul George is a pipe dream I agree. Beal though could be a possibility though in my opinion. He’s really good but not in the same class as the elite of the elite of the NBA. That’s why Carlisle is so important in my opinion. Dallas is not LA and not Miami and not NY. So they are going to need to be superior in other areas to have a chance at a title. They are going to need to have superior coaching and Carlisle provides that. I know people don’t like his substitutions but fact is he’s a top 5 coach in the NBA and is needed in Dallas.

[thr3ep01nte4]

But this is where you are wrong actually. After the injury which sidelined him for about 10-14 days, he wasn't looking the same. His efficiency and index started to drop significantly. Granted it could have been because teams prepared more for him but he still looked slow and heavy footed. We were pointing that out for months.
But yea maybe he won't hit rookie wall in the NBA since he is more experienced now. But actually i think he already had his bad stretch of games when he couldn't even stay on the floor for more than 30 mins... That happened not long ago, so maybe he is already through that. We'll see soon enough. February is usually the month when rookies start to have some bad stretches.

That's something worth monitoring for sure. But he has already had a slew of bad games from the end of November to the start of December, where he had some single digit scoring games, shot badly from 3, and injured his hip. Right now, as long as DSJ is not on the floor with him at the same time, he's really performing like an all-star.

[Teffer10]

Bradley Beal is someone I've been thinking alot about. He's a good defender, can guard SG/PGs and is a really good secondary ball-handler. He's been in a situation where he wasn't the primary ball-handler (John Wall) and had success. He also is 25 years old so he has another 5-6 years in his prime. A Luka-Beal backcourt could be really dominant over the next 2-3 years.

I'd offer DSJ, Wes's expiring and take on a bad contract to get Beal. I don't think we have enough, and probably have to rope in a 3rd team, but I would pretty much be all in on Beal as a 2nd fiddle to Luka. It's hard to make it work, since Washington may be stuck with John Wall at PG and their interest in DSJ then is less. Would have to leverage PHX/ORL as a 3rd team, while taking on the bad contracts.

G- Doncic | Brunson
G - Beal | _______
F - Barnes | Finney-Smith
F - Kleber | _______
C- _______ | ________

I'd ride into the 2019 offseason with this foundation. Again, this is more of a dream, bc it's very difficult to get it done.

How about this 3-way deal?

Dallas trades:
Wes/DSJ/DFS/DJ/Powell
Recieves:
Porter/Beal/Howard

Wash trades:
Porter/Beal/Howard
Receives:
Wes/DJ/Simmons/Powell/Orlando 1st

Orlando trades:
Simmons/1st
Receives:
DSJ/DFS

Not sure Wash would do that deal but it would relieve them of approx $46mil of cap space next season and about $106mil over the next 2 years if my math is correct.
We could pull Howard and Powell out of that deal and include Barea to Wash to releive them of another $5mil if needed.

[BlueSan]

Dallas is not doing that for multiple reasons. Starting one, they wish to compete this year and trading half of the team away midseason isnt exactly healthy for that

[Jedzz]

I thought the Wolves rookie and his pestering long arms and endless defensive attitude looked a bit like it slowed Doncic at the start of the Wolves/Mavs game. It wasn't long before I noticed Doncic was still producing and racking up stats even through a few stops and misses. By the fourth quarter he was getting whatever he wanted most possessions. We were all excited when Rose stopped him once or twice late but that was about it for stopping this force of nature. He does so many things well alone and knows where all his teammates are and uses them.

[Archx]

I thought the Wolves rookie and his pestering long arms and endless defensive attitude looked a bit like it slowed Doncic at the start of the Wolves/Mavs game. It wasn't long before I noticed Doncic was still producing and racking up stats even through a few stops and misses. By the fourth quarter he was getting whatever he wanted most possessions. We were all excited when Rose stopped him once or twice late but that was about it for stopping this force of nature. He does so many things well alone and knows where all his teammates are and uses them.

Yeah he missed a lot of easy shots during the game. Well "easy" for him, he usually makes them in his sleep. But like you said, Luka can rack up stats and you don't even notice. He can have a 20pt game and it feels like he only scored 10 or something. It's nice that he always finds a way to produce one way or another. He's just inconsistent with his jumpshots but i guess that will level out in a few years with better experience.

[DJ_3_Ball]

Dallas is not doing that for multiple reasons. Starting one, they wish to compete this year and trading half of the team away midseason isnt exactly healthy for that

Let's be honest here. Well... you're absolutely right. Don't get me wrong here, I'm a HUGE Mavs fan. I care about their success more than any other team I follow and by A LOT. The 2011 Finals, especially the game 2 comeback is my favorite sports memory, and I think it always will be.

That said, this organization has never been accused of being savvy. We're not talking about the San Antonio Spurs here. The Mavs have for the better part of a decade now, foolishly pursued big name FAs & been left standing at the alter. It's really insane. It's like most women. They swoon after the heartthrob doctor, or the lawyer, or whatever "status" symbol they hold dear, and they completely ignore any guy they could realistically attain (and in many cases would be happier with). The funniest part is they're totally oblivious to the fact these heartthrob doctor types are pursued by literally hundreds, if not thousands, of women. They could have their pick of the litter & they don't even know this chick exists.

What I'm saying here is, it is just not smart to ignore facts to pursue a dream. Do the Mavs want to make the playoffs this year? Absolutely. Are they going to? The chances are slim and none... and Slim is thinking about booking a flight on out of town. It is just so stupid. It'd be like if you're the captain of a ship, and you set sail for your destination, you encounter a really nasty storm, but instead of heading back to shore you just head straight for the eye of the storm because "By Golly, I'm going to make it to my destination!" That's how you end up with a disaster.

This organization needs to stop making up its mind that it's going to do one thing no matter what transpires, and they need to start thinking of all the possibilities, so they're prepared for any actuality, and start becoming reactionary.

If this team goes on a 10 game winning streak, then by all means. Load up for a playoff run. If we're 4-5 games out come trade deadline time, then have some trades you've been working through ready to execute. I'm just so tired of the one-track mind of this franchise the last 7 years, and I really don't want to see them screw the pooch on this deal now that we have LUKA!

[DJ_3_Ball]

Just took a look at Luka's points per game. So, he's at 20.2 ppg right now. If he shot 78% instead of the 73% he's shooting from the line, then he'd be at 20.5 ppg. I feel like his FT shooting will improve quite a bit, maybe even by season's end. I would think in 2 years he's shooting at near 85%. That would put him 20.9 ppg. I also feel like Luka can be better around the rim & will get better in the mid range, getting more consistent with his floater. If he ups that FG shooting from 43.5% to 45.0%, then his scoring will increase to 21.4 ppg.

Then I looked at something else. Luka is 27th in the NBA in scoring at 20.2 ppg, while playing 32 mpg. Literally, all 26 guys ahead of Luka are playing more minutes per game (and also getting substantially more FGA per game). Most of the guys ahead of Luka are shooting 3-5 more FGA per game. Let's split the difference and call it 4 FGA per game. If Luka can maintain 45% for 19.2 FGA per game, then his scoring increases by 3.6 ppg.

Bottom line. It's not hard at all to see Luka at 25.0 ppg in the very near future. That's rarefied air. If Luka were at 25.0 ppg this season, he'd be tied with Kemba Walker for 12th in scoring. If he put up 25.0 ppg last season he'd of finished 8th. The 5 years before that he'd of finished: 14th, 7th, 4th, 6th, and 6th. That's pretty amazing; especially when you consider about 40% of the guys at the top of the scoring list don't do a great job of getting their teammates involved. It's almost like scoring is secondary to Luka at times. Also, pretty cool when you realize Dirk only had 5 seasons of 25.0 ppg or higher. Granted scoring has gone way up in the NBA, but 25.0 ppg is still a noteworthy benchmark.