Dirk Nowitzki's return and fall of the Dallas 2019 season

[BlueSan]

I dont think we talk about this enough.

How are you guys seeing this. We saw Mavs without Dirk and we are seeing Mavs with Dirk. Now Dirk is not the only reason why Dallas is playing so poorly but he is one of the key ones in my opinion and here are the main 3 reasons I believe that is so.

1. Reason number one - The obvious one DIRK IS A LIABILITY ON DEFENSE
- I think most if not all expected this much from Dirk this season, he is moving maybe even worse than expected but yeah he hardly guards anything and looks like a high pole when on defense that people run around or shoot over

2. Reason number two - DIRK IS BAD on OFFENSE as well
- This one I think is a lot more suprising. People knew Dirk isnt in his prime, he is not the guy who is going to shoot many of his one legged kick fadeaways anymore, or stun you on offense, but he was still good last season averaging well over 10 and he was a deadly shooter.
This year however Dirk has been shooting it terribly. So terribly in fact that he is not even a serious threat any longer on the offense and when you have a liability on defense but also a guy who cant do much in offense and is slow...than you have a bad player on the floor and teams will eat you alive.

Let's look at Dirk's numbers real quick

3pt shooting = 25,9%
2 pt shooting = 40,00%
3,9 pts per game
1,5 rebounds per game
0,4 assists per game
0,3 blocks per game

NET RATING = - 19,1 per game
offensive rating = 101,3 (ranked 336 )
Defensive rating = 120,3 (ranked 469 DEAD LAST with a whole point above 468 and 5 points ahead 455 rank so extremely BAD)
True Shooting = 43,3% (ranked 431 in the league - not many behind him...)
Efficientcy = 39,4% (ranked 426)

So yes Dirk is REALY REALY BAD with an eye test and statistics unfortunately just show you just how bad he is.

3. Reason number 3 - DIRK's RETURN SCREWED ROTATIONS LINE UPs and MAXI KLEBER's involvement
- This last one is the saddest reason of the bunch but the defining one. Remember how Dallas was killing it before Dirk came back, how Dallas' bench was killing units and what not... then Dallas loses a close game to Sacramento and next they play the dead last PHX and enter Dirk. Dirk was not at fault for Dallas losing that game mind you but ever since, that game included, Dallas had a messed up rotation and I think Dirk's inclusing together with injuries completely messed up the bench unit and particularly Maxi Kleber who should, I think most can agree, play more minutes a lot more and Dirk is taking a lot of those away...

There is no denying that Dirk is a legend, there is no denying that he has a huge positive impact on Dallas as an organisation and on the locker room side of things...but on court thing are messed up a lot since he came back and he is playing an important role in that tragic story in my humble opinion.

If Dallas wishes to grant Dirk one final year for all he did for the Mavs that is fine by me, but than I expect people who want that to also not complain any longer about Dallas losing games and not making the playoffs cause if you want to reach those. Dirk in his current state must not be playing any game but a blow out win or loss situation

[HMFFL]

Nice writeup and I respect your opinion. I doubt anyone expects us to make the finals unless we make a blockerbuster trade. While Luka was one this off-season, more will be needed for us to make the NBA Finals, and foundation pieces starters & bench talent will need to be acquired.

I believe Dirk has one more season left in him. If not, so be it, and his role will be less with each season, but at the max he plays two more seasons before retires. I only expect one but he deserves to go out on his own terms.

In recent memory, Nelson was the focal point for the Mavs losing, throw Cubans name in there as well, and RC's who continues to be a lunching bag. Now, we have an aging Dirk, and some fans want to make him out to be the main problem. Every team has a player that contributes very little or not at all, so understanding that Dirk's not going to perform at an average level is common sense, but blaming him as our biggest problem, now that's just amusing.

Sent from my SM-N920P using RealGM mobile app

[DJ_3_Ball]

I wouldn't care if Dirk fell down on every trip up the floor, if every pass fell through his hands & out of bounds, or if he missed every shot. If Dirk wants to be out there, then by God, he's earned the right to call his own shots with me.

This is about giving back to an athlete with the highest of integrity & moral character, who has represented this organization throughout the world as well as any one man possibly could. It's up to Dirk now & forever more.

Some might disagree, but that's how I feel about it. Not to mention, maybe Dirk playing poorly means the Mavs win 37 games this year instead of 39. Whoopty-doo.

[Teffer10]

I really have mixed emotions when it comes to Dirk playing this season.

I love to watch Dirk play and will always love to see #41 on the floor but it is tough watching him struggle. I mean that was really tough watching Dirk try to make those last baskets in Boston with the crowd cheering him on but he just struggled and seemed embarrassed. It was touching in a way but perhaps in a sad way for me.

I agree with those who think he should leave on his own terms but it really is hurting this team going forward. We're simply going to lose Maxi if this lack of PT continues. Now I certainly don't blame Dirk as it should be Powell's minutes that Dirk is absorbing but for some reason Rick places Maxi in his virtual doghouse.

I never want to see Dirk retire but then again I want to see this team move forward and it will be difficult to do as long as he is part of our core. I actually think the chemistry might be better if he were paired with Maxi in the frontcourt.

[gh123]

Dude, chill, there are much bigger problems than Dirk.

[Dirk]

It's incredibly frustrating to witness all these discussions on Dirk. It feels inherently unfair and disrespectful. But I do understand them and obviously see where they are coming from. Plus, when the opinions aren't cheap and people bring their case with solid foundations, it's totally accepted, because I know BlueSan isn't being "ungrateful" or whatever. So I want to underline my appreciation to you BlueSan for developing your points. Not only on this but on other subjects as well.

With that said, your post while long fails to mention some facts:

--- 11 games. 109 minutes.

Dirk is playing 9.9 minutes per game. How many threads are created by fan bases on players that average 10 minutes a night?

--- He did not play at all in 3 games. All losses. All with the same pattern of the games he played in.

--- The Mavs slide began with Barea being out and the schedule getting tougher.


Coincidence? I think not. Not hard to remember how DFS (shooting), Powell started very strongly as well.

While one could always say that even just by playing a small amount of minutes, that is still enough to disrupt the whole flow of the game, mess up rotations... it does feel like this is being blown out of proportion or people should definitely consider how much better the Mavs would be doing if he had not played at all. Look at the games. Look at the games he did not play lately. Look at everything - look at the 6 game losing streak the Mavs had that culminated with an humiliating loss at home to the Knicks --- very similar to this one vs the Lakers.

I will write some generalities that I feel are important.

Dirk has been great on the court, but he has also always revealed himself as a great guy with a fun character. He jokes about his shortcomings all the time even when he was playing at very high levels --- he knows fully well how much he has struggled. He never showed signs of chasing milestones, records or whatever.

Hell, just last year he was very productive and earned himself another year. He didn't come back because he wanted to add more games to his CV. He came back because he played well. So from everything we know, for him this stretch of games has been very hard to deal with because he knows he is exposing himself to all these questions and he does not want to be a burden to the franchise.

So with that in mind, I have to believe, from all we know from watching 20 years of Dirk, that he isn't forcing anyone into playing him. I have to believe the HC and Cuban aren't pushing for him to play. I have to believe that there's a reasoning behind getting him out there because they all think he can get his legs under him and the best way to do it is with NBA minutes. So the reasoning isn't to get ovations from the crowd... I am sure that is part of it, but it surely should be/is a very minor part. The bigger part is just getting him back physically.

While it is not uncommon to see legends fall off a cliff from one season to another (always remember how Manning's arm was totally shot after leading historic offense just a season before), I still have some hope that Dirk didn't turn into a dead corpse overnight and that the significant injury layoff he went through didn't kill whatever he had left on his body.

From a rational standpoint, a guy averaging 10 minutes a night. Coming off months out. I think there is still enough credit there before totally thinking the whole situation is terribly bad and should just end --- if he is totally shot, then he should be at the end of the rotation and only play spot minutes in certain games.

I'd love to believe that Dirk's 10 minutes a game were the reason for the Mavs struggles. They're not. And ultimately, if in an unimaginable way, the Mavs/Dirk deliberetaly did what is described here:

I wouldn't care if Dirk fell down on every trip up the floor, if every pass fell through his hands & out of bounds, or if he missed every shot. If Dirk wants to be out there, then by God, he's earned the right to call his own shots with me.

This is about giving back to an athlete with the highest of integrity & moral character, who has represented this organization throughout the world as well as any one man possibly could. It's up to Dirk now & forever more.

Some might disagree, but that's how I feel about it. Not to mention, maybe Dirk playing poorly means the Mavs win 37 games this year instead of 39. Whoopty-doo.

Who would really care?

I do not want to see Dirk play on if it's physically pain for us to watch him. It is pointless. But if they actually thought that they wanted to finish his career playing, even if he was detrimental to winning, then so be it. The Mavs are nowhere near good enough with him not playing, to think that i

The season has been a huge positive so far given Luka's level of play. If the poor level of play of the team is a reflection of the lack of talent level and leads to the front office making better decisions, it'll be all good in the end --- in some ways, if Carlisle was being touted as doing an amazing job, the chances of splashing the money on Jordan, bring Matthews back, etc would be much higher ah. This thing would be much worse if Dirk had taken up meaningful cap space, if he was keeping out some really bright young players (I love Powell's personality and Kleber should definitely be re-signed). I just don't think we're at that stage yet where he should be pronounced dead. And so, fingers crossed the Mavs do improve and his 10 minutes a night won't stick out as much as they have done.

TL; DR everyone agrees he has been a major negative. I just don't think he is the or the biggest reason for losing. Hasn't been back for long enough or played enough minutes to accept he is just a dead corpse now.

[daoneandonly]

Well said Dirk, I echo this

[burek3]

I respectfully disagree with OP. Maxi and Dirk should be eating Powell's minutes, not Maxi's. 's all. Carry on. Dirk should shoot any and every ball he gets in a game, even if it's 40ft fadeaway out of triple team.

Maybe Powell is being showcased for a trade, who knows. I like his energy, but he lacks strength, skill and finesse to match it.

[BlueSan]

I sincerely doubt, taking into account Rick and his personality that he would play Powell for the sake of a trade and no problem, the intention of this thread is to discuss and monitor the situation in now and in the future.

Those who have played basketball or any competitive sports for that reason on at least semi pro level know that a losing streak is a bit more than just saying, but look even with X guy you still lost so that guy was not the reason for that. No a losing streak, just as a winning streak has its mental effects on your players, on teams which approach you and so on, it raises the intensity of the players if you are winning as you know your efforts are being rewarded and in case of a losing streak it often goes the other way and I think people have noticed that.

Those things are important and when you lose your mojo it is not easy to get it back and at such a high level, at such high intensity and so fast sport as basketball that is extremely important and should not be underestimated. I believe personally that Rick is the main cause for this Dallas losing streak but him playing Dirk is one of the important factors for the above stated reasons, even more important one his rotations and the way he plays certain players (like DSJ) and so on.

I think it is healthy we discuss such things and it is not meant to be negative at all. I want just as much as anyone to see that Dirk doesnt struggle, but I will admit I do want to see Dallas succeeding more and again knowing Dirk's character he wants to be playing because he deserves it IN THIS MOMENT not because of his PAST GLORY, he does not want any privilleges and other players wouldnt be getting 10 minutes a night if they were playing like that, so we must not pretend he isnt getting those based on what Dirk was in the past and some hope he may still be, or respect him too much. But like I said, this is not a hobby, this is a business and this is not some local league this is the NBA, I think it is fair to all of the Mavs players if not the fans also, that the best players are playing and the rest need to earn it.

We can still build statutes and sing glory songs after all is said and done, but out there it is battle and we need to also think about club and players who are giving their max every night, it is not fair to them if we take it lightly and dont find it a big deal.

But like I said, this thread is just to discuss not to crucify, hopefully in 1 month time we will be able to say look these worries were for nothing!

[arkuo]

There's a trend here. The Luka-only fans will always feel the need to blame the incumbent star if the son of God doesnt get 100% of the field goal attempts and rebounds.

Imagine if PHX drafted him at number one, Devin Booker would have been crucified for taking more shots than Luka. If Vlade Divac had a working brain and drafted Luka at number 2, then D'Aaron Fox would have been chased out of town for holding the ball more than Luka.

[Archx]

There's a trend here. The Luka-only fans will always feel the need to blame the incumbent star if the son of God doesnt get 100% of the field goal attempts and rebounds.

Yeah there is a trend when people are rationally trying to figure out how to help Mavs win, suddenly they become "Luka stans" and some stupid things like that. And you're trying to sound politically correct just like them who would jump off the bridge for Dirk or Rick. Dirk is my role model since i started playing basketball at 13/14yo. He is like European basketball god. No one knows better than us what he did for EU and global basketball. But some people are completely missing the point here.

BlueSan made some great posts in recent days i think no one even took 2 minutes to read them. Problem is NOT Dirk's playing time, it's the general mentality of this franchise. They wanted to get into the playoffs but they are going into exactly the opposite way. Obviously people will be upset because they wanted to see this team win. Check other sources of discussions and you'll see A TON more people who turned on Rick for the lack of adjustments that he made.

Imagine if PHX drafted him at number one, Devin Booker would have been crucified for taking more shots than Luka. If Vlade Divac had a working brain and drafted Luka at number 2, then D'Aaron Fox would have been chased out of town for holding the ball more than Luka.

This is total BS, you're just trying to sound politically correct again and not seeing the bigger picture. Even Hawks are starting to play better and better because their coach has bigger balls and is not afraid to make adjustments. PHX were crap at the start and are also slowly figuring it out. All these teams are not afraid to experiment. Mavs are TERRIBLE on the road and we keep seeing same thing over and over again. No changes or risks from Rick. I hope you understand why people are upset now.

[Darren]

I think people are overreacting. For ageing player, it takes longer time to warm up. It doesn't help benching Dirk. Obviously, Dirk is not in good mood and shape either. And yes, it creates some mess in rotation. But wait, the Mavs doesn't deserve to win that much. The Mavs has won some lucky games despite struggling all game long. After a long road trip, the W-L is just back to normal. A team playing no defense (on 3s and on layups) do not deserve playoff discussion at all. Even if the Mavs make it, it could be blowout in embarrassing manner every PO game. What's the point of making PO then? It's the front office gamble misfires yet again. I am always suspect about the decision to sign DJ even if the Mavs are eligible to gather a lot of firsts with cap space. Losing Yogi and McDermott ruin the bench production in the worst way.

For those who thinks big about Maxi, let's not forget Kleber's not quick at all. Starter? Possibly not. The Mavs just lacks any shot-blocker. The Mavs lacks perimeter defender outside of DFS. Sorry, but Wes, Barnes, Doncic, Smith, ...all failed in defensive assignment. Involving DJ in pick-n-roll is just a guarantee for easy and uncontested buckets. I think the Mavs wants to tank again when the whole team doesn't fit Doncic at all. No shooter. No defender. No shotblocker. Too many iso-player. Too many unathletic player. Too few passion. Too few teamwork. Too many struggle within the team. Too little cohesiveness as a unit. I think the Mavs is ultimately worser than Pheonix at some point.

After all, Dirk's Dirk. But benching Dirk actually is equal to losing all Dirk's production afterall. Dirk is not going to be effective without enough warm up and minutes played.

[Dirk]

There's a trend here. The Luka-only fans will always feel the need to blame the incumbent star if the son of God doesnt get 100% of the field goal attempts and rebounds.

Imagine if PHX drafted him at number one, Devin Booker would have been crucified for taking more shots than Luka. If Vlade Divac had a working brain and drafted Luka at number 2, then D'Aaron Fox would have been chased out of town for holding the ball more than Luka.

There are very very few "Luka only fans" on RealGM that are obnoxious and undermine everyone (Mavs fans, other Luka fans, the whole forum). For those very rare cases, you are right, they would crucify Booker and everyone else. Completely delusional. They are not regulars on the Mavs forum. Thankfully...

BlueSan is a quality contributor to this board. Although I still don't get how a guy averaging less than 10 minutes a game for the last 11 games is the cause of losing... this thread is totally fine and it's just part of the season we're living in. Dirk comes back from injury. 80 years old and has looked bad, totally understandable to see him being questioned.

Let's keep the Luka-only fans remarks out of this forum. Luka fans are now Mavs fans. There should be no division.

And there should be no issue with everyone being free to express whatever feelings they have for this team.

End of story.

[Archx]

BlueSan is a quality contributor to this board. Although I still don't get how a guy averaging less than 10 minutes a game for the last 11 games is the cause of losing...

I think his point was, when Dirk returned, bench unit had to adjust and adapt to Dirk. And then Barea went down and suddenly bench production was nothing like we have seen for the first 2 months. Bench looked really great and JJ was doing a fine job. Their defense against other 2nd units also prevailed.
If we are willing to admit or not, Kleber and Powell can be a powerful duo under the rim. I don't know why Powell is getting so much hate around here but i really like his athleticism and he is trying hard to play defense. The only problem are his 3 point shots, why is he even taking them? If Dirk can return to what he was last season, we wouldn't even be missing Kleber's defense because Dirk would cover for it on offense.

[BlueSan]

I will throw a little bone here up for discussion. And this is no definitive answer to anything, but just like, a murder weapon in a crime scene is no answer on its own, when the stab wounds match, just like when the weapon belongs to the suspect you draw suspicion and just like that is the indicator that you are on to something, so we can take something out of the following.

Do you guys know that there are only 7x 5 men line ups that Dallas has played more than 50 minutes in this entire season?
No? Neither did I. You see today after this discussion we are having I went to take some additional closer looks at trying to solve this "muder mistery" in Dallas.
So I think anyone who is into these things, not murder mistery but like takes basketball, analytics and all of it serious, loves these kinds of "problems" why suddenly a team is playing poorly, can I find an answer or at least get some hints, some PROS, CONS.
You see there is one thing throwing your frustrated opinion around and completely another when you are approaching things in a more serious manner. Then for me at least it becomes really rewarding when you are starting to connect the dots, or at least you see some PROs for what your theory is. And let us not kid ourselves. We are talking about theories here, no GENERAL TRUTHS, no one has those, not me, not you, not us, not the players and especially not Rick, or Dallas would have shown a better trend already.

But if you managed to got your way through this post with me until this point, I will show you something, which I think is really cool and is for anyone who likes finding answers and thinking about these mysteries.
So back to the "murder", sorry I mean Dallas playing bad mystery.

Just like with any murder mistery, at least a good one, you always have some pros, cons, some arguements FOR and others AGAINST, so as our moderator Dirk mentioned above most of us realize that Dirk (this time the real one Nowitzki) is playing 9,9 minutes a game on average and has been playing for 11 games right?
So 11 games x 9,9 = 108,9 minutes right?
Well in search for more answers I had an idea and I took a look at the Dallas' 5 men line ups through this season and what is their NETRTG. I set the filter at 50 minutes to ommit all others short lived experiments and what I found was the following.

1.There are only 7 (5 men line ups) that coach Rick played this season for more than 50 minutes together.

- Barrea, Harris, Powell, DFS, Maxi = + 13,8 NETRTG (108 minutes)
- DSJ, Luka, Barnes, Maxi, DJ = + 4,4 NETRTG (53 minutes)
- DSJ, Luka, DFS, Barnes, DJ = + 3,4 NETRTG (133 minutes)
- DSJ, Wes, Luka, DFS, DJ = + 0,2 NETRTG (81 minutes)
- Brunson, Wes, Luka, Barnes, DJ = - 0,1 NETRTG (184 minutes)
- DSJ, Wes, Luka, Barnes, DJ = - 7,3 NETRTG (350 minutes)
- Barrea, Harris, DFS, Powell, Nowitzki = - 20,0 NETTRG (77 minutes)


First of the above I think is just cool to see for whatever reason anyway right?

2.
2nd I mean it does show you a couple of things or hint at it, but we wont be talking about those today, no we are here on Dirk's thread and we are looking at one of the potential suspects for the Dallas' struggles. So Dirk (the moderator) was right Dirk Nowitzki only played in 11 games so far an is averaging 9,9 minutes, and that gets you basically 109 minutes played but out of those Nowitzki has actuall been playing in extremely STEADY line up. Meaning Dirk actually only has 2 other line ups in which he played for more than 5 minutes. One is a 9 minute one and the other is a 12 minutes one.
Which means Rick is purposely playing Dirk in that particular line up. Guys does that line up seem familiar for any reason to you? No ? Take a look up the ladder at number one place on the NETRTG with a great + 13,8 in a proper 108 minutes span. Looks samey? That is because it is, in fact who is Dirk replacing in that line up guys? And is that what people are "whispering about"? Yes indeed it is our other German Maxi.
Now I think the above is something which we noticed on an eye test but it is cool to get it confirmed by the numbers, in fact I believe it further on points to the OP of this thread.

In case you have wondered the other two line ups over 5 minutes? Yeah Dirk is negative in those two - 51,00 NETRTG and -51,7 in fact. But that is just a fun fact nothing more.

Like I have stated, I think it is good we debate, I think it is good that we read eachother's opinion and I think it is also important to look at the numbers and other clues along the way that we see and compare them with what our guts/eyes/ears etc are telling us, usually there is a reason behind those initial senses and/or worries sometimes justified other times not.

And the above is still not enough to say that the OP is a general truth, but I do think it further hints in that direction, I only hope that Rick and his team are also doing their best at solving the "crime" and I do hope they are not turning a blind eye to the evidence they find along the way, whatever it may be...